Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Strong international growth in Merchant Solutions, with regions like Europe, Latin America, and APAC growing significantly higher than North America, demonstrating increased market share and global expansion opportunities.
- Clover revenue grew by 30% in Q4, and the company expects continued acceleration due to international rollouts like the Brazil launch in April. Fiserv aims for $4.5 billion in Clover revenue by 2026, driven by increased penetration of value-added services and expansion into new channels such as ISV partnerships.
- Fiserv is capitalizing on the Reg II opportunity, securing nearly 20 new wins for its debit networks Star and Accel, including notable companies like Hello Fresh and Lyft, which can drive significant growth in their Payments segment.
- The North American merchant business is experiencing only high single-digit growth, which is slower compared to international regions.
- There is a potential risk of mean reversion in the spread between revenue and volume growth, as the company acknowledges that revenue growth may not consistently outpace volume growth.
- The company does not expect to achieve 30% revenue growth in Clover every quarter, indicating that the recent acceleration may not be sustainable.
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Revenue Guidance Increase Due to Argentina Inflation
Q: Why did you raise your organic revenue growth guidance for 2024?
A: The company increased its organic revenue growth guidance from 11–13% to 15–17%, primarily due to higher-than-normal inflation and interest in Argentina, which now contribute about 7 points to total company growth, up from 3 points previously. This excess inflation also leads to a higher currency variation or FX headwind, increasing about 4 points from November. Excluding the Argentina impact, underlying organic growth remains consistent with prior expectations. -
Clover Revenue Growth Expectations
Q: Do you expect continued acceleration in Clover's revenue growth in 2024?
A: Clover's revenue growth accelerated to 30% in Q4. While we don't expect to achieve 30% every quarter, we feel good about the overall trajectory towards our goals of $3.5 billion for Clover in 2025 and $4.5 billion in 2026. Factors driving this growth include international expansion, such as the Brazil rollout in April, and increased penetration of value-added services, with penetration rates up to 19% this quarter. -
Revenue Growing Faster Than Volume
Q: Will revenue continue to grow faster than transaction volume in the merchant segment?
A: Yes, we expect revenue to continue outpacing volume growth as we sell more software and value-added services to merchants. This results in higher revenue per transaction. The penetration of value-added services reached 19% in the quarter, up 3 points from a year ago, on track towards 27% by 2026. While the spread between revenue and volume may fluctuate, we see ongoing opportunities to sell additional capabilities. -
FinTech Segment Dynamics and Revenue Impact
Q: Is the shift from license to ASP models in FinTech a broader trend impacting revenues?
A: Some clients are choosing ASP contracts over traditional license deals, spreading revenue over time rather than recognizing it upfront. While this affects the timing of revenue recognition, it represents better economic transactions for us. We achieved 6% organic growth in our combined bank and credit union segments in 2023 and expect 5–7% growth in 2024, accelerating to 6–8% beyond 2025. We remain confident in our growth outlook for the segment. -
Value-Added Services Growth and M&A Potential
Q: What's driving the 40% growth in value-added services, and are there M&A opportunities?
A: The significant growth in value-added services is largely driven by software, which constitutes the majority of this growth. We're focused on building out more verticals like retail and services and enhancing our software functionality. While we feel good about our current assets, we're always looking for opportunities to invest and add functionality, including potential tuck-in acquisitions. -
Regulation II Opportunities for Star and Accel
Q: How significant is the opportunity from Regulation II for Star and Accel networks?
A: Regulation II presents a meaningful opportunity for our debit networks, Star and Accel. We've secured nearly 20 wins and are competing effectively in the market. While competition is strong, we see more opportunities than before and feel good about the potential benefits from Regulation II as it becomes a reality. -
Applying for Bank Charter in Georgia
Q: Why did Fiserv apply for a bank charter in Georgia, and what are the benefits?
A: We applied for a specific-purpose bank charter to enable sponsorship of merchant acquiring, as historically required by Visa and MasterCard rules. This allows us to sponsor our own merchant acquiring in certain instances, giving us greater control over outcomes. It's not intended to compete with our banking partners but to support smaller banks lacking sponsorship capabilities. -
Merchant Growth in North America and International
Q: Do both North America and international merchant businesses grow equally?
A: Our merchant business is experiencing good growth across all regions. International regions like Europe, Latin America, and APAC are growing nicely, with international growth rates higher than North America's high single-digit growth. This is due to the opportunity to add merchants and sell more services in these regions. -
Foreign Exchange Losses and 2024 Expectations
Q: Will you adjust out FX losses in 2024 as you did in Q4?
A: In 2023, we adjusted out a one-time significant FX impact from a 50% devaluation in Argentina on December 12. This adjustment was only for the revaluation of the balance sheet due to hyperinflationary accounting rules. We don't anticipate similar adjustments in 2024 unless there are other significant devaluations. We expect to manage ongoing FX impacts within our normal operations. -
Outlook for New Deal Activity in 2024
Q: Should we expect significant new deals or more cross-selling in 2024?
A: We anticipate both large new deals and cross-selling opportunities. Our pipeline includes new wins and expanding relationships with existing clients. For example, the U.S. Bank deal for Cash Flow Central expands on our existing partnership. We continue to roll out new products and help our clients deliver better technology to their customers.
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