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FI

FISERV INC (FI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 delivered resilient top-line and margin expansion: revenue $5.25B (+7% YoY), organic growth +13%, adjusted EPS $2.51 (+15% YoY), and adjusted operating margin 42.9% (+180 bps YoY) .
  • 2025 guide implies sustained double‑digit growth and operating leverage: organic revenue +10–12%, adjusted EPS $10.10–$10.30 (+15–17%), and at least 125 bps adjusted operating margin expansion; FCF ~$5.5B .
  • Merchant outperformed (Q4 organic +23%) on Clover strength (FY24 revenue $2.7B, +29%) with value‑added solutions penetration at 22% and a 25% 2025 goal; Commerce Hub scaled to ~250 clients with 10x daily transactions vs. Q1 .
  • Embedded finance momentum (DoorDash ramp) and an ADP partnership expand the SMB suite; management expects H2‑weighted 2025 growth as new wins roll on and Argentina tailwinds fade .
  • Estimates context: Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable at query time (SPGI daily request limit), so “vs. consensus” comparisons are not shown (see Estimates Context section).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Merchant Solutions organic growth +23% in Q4 (27% FY), with Q4 adjusted operating margin up 150 bps and FY margin +290 bps to 37.0% on mix, VAS, and hardware attach .
    • Clover scale and monetization: FY24 revenue $2.7B (+29%), Q4 annualized payment volume growth ~14% with rising VAS penetration to 22%; management targets 25% VAS in 2025 and $3.5B Clover revenue .
    • Company‑wide operating leverage: Q4 adjusted operating margin 42.9% (+180 bps YoY) and Financial Solutions margin 51.7% (+330 bps YoY) on disciplined execution .
    • Quote: “our fourth year in a row of double‑digit organic revenue growth and 39th consecutive year of double‑digit adjusted earnings per share growth” — Frank Bisignano .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Issuer/Financial Solutions softness in Q4 tied to timing of plastic and statements volumes, with re‑acceleration expected as Target (late March) and Verizon (September) onboard in 2025 .
    • Reported organic growth included transitory Argentina effects; ex‑Argentina, organic revenue growth was ~11% (Q4 and FY), and 2025 assumes no such contribution, making 1H comps tougher .
    • GAAP EPS burdened by non‑cash items: $595M equity‑method impairment (primarily Wells Fargo Merchant Services JV) and $147M pension plan settlement charge; adjusted EPS excludes these .
    • 2025 “below the line” drag: higher interest expense from refinancing and growth in merchant cash advances .

Financial Results

Headline metrics by quarter

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$5.107 $5.215 $5.251
GAAP EPS ($)$1.53 $0.98 $1.64
Adjusted EPS ($)$2.13 $2.30 $2.51
GAAP Operating Margin %28.0% 30.7% 31.8%
Adjusted Operating Margin %38.4% 40.2% 42.9%
Organic Revenue Growth %18% 15% 13%

YoY comparison (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$4.917 $5.251
GAAP EPS ($)$1.45 $1.64
Adjusted EPS ($)$2.19 $2.51
GAAP Operating Margin %29.4% 31.8%
Adjusted Operating Margin %41.1% 42.9%

Segment breakdown (Q4)

SegmentQ4 2023 Revenue ($B)Q4 2024 Revenue ($B)Q4 2023 Op Margin %Q4 2024 Op Margin %
Merchant Solutions$2.261 $2.499 37.7% 39.2%
Financial Solutions$2.331 $2.401 48.4% 51.7%

Selected KPIs and cash generation

KPIFY 2024FY 2025 Outlook
Free Cash Flow ($B)$5.233 ~$5.5
Operating Cash Flow ($B)$6.631
Clover Revenue ($B)$2.7 $3.5 target
Clover VAS Penetration (%)22% (Q4) 25% target
Commerce Hub Clients~250 (Q4)
Share Repurchases33.9M shares; $5.5B FY; 6.1M/$1.3B in Q4 Continue; spend > FCF

Non‑GAAP adjustments — context: Adjusted EPS excludes significant items including amortization of acquisition‑related intangibles ($1.423B in 2024), $595M equity‑method impairment, and $147M pension settlement; see reconciliation in 8‑K .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Organic Revenue GrowthFY 202510%–12% New
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$10.10–$10.30; +15%–17% New
Adjusted Operating Margin ExpansionFY 2025≥100 bps per year medium‑term target ≥125 bps Raised vs medium‑term target
Free Cash FlowFY 2025~ $5.5B New
Merchant Organic GrowthFY 202512%–15% New
Financial Organic GrowthFY 20256%–8% New

Notes: Company had medium‑term margin expansion target (≥100 bps per year) from prior communications; the ≥125 bps FY25 outlook is above that .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q‑2)Q3 2024 (Q‑1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Clover growth & VASMerchant organic +28% Merchant organic +24% Clover rev $2.7B (+29%); VAS 22% with 25% 2025 target Sustained high growth; rising mix/monetization
Embedded finance (DoorDash, Payfare)DoorDash ramping; pipeline growing; definitive agreement to acquire Payfare (program management) Emerging accelerator
Argentina/macro effects2024 outlook reflected ~8.5% currency impact Organic/adjusted spread influenced by devaluation Ex‑Argentina organic ~11% (Q4/FY); 2025 assumes no contribution; H1 comps tougher Normalizing; tougher H1 compares
International expansionLaunches/pilots in Brazil, Mexico, Australia; Spain wins (Unicaja, Riu Hotels) Increasing footprint
Commerce Hub adoption~250 clients; daily transactions up 10x since Q1; >4 products per client on avg after 1 year Accelerating attach

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and performance: “our fourth year in a row of double‑digit organic revenue growth and 39th consecutive year of double‑digit adjusted earnings per share growth” — Frank Bisignano, CEO .
  • SMB suite and distribution: “CashFlow Central will grow even more compelling as part of our full small business suite… The full SMB suite will be integrated this quarter with XD… available directly on Clover late this year” .
  • Embedded finance: “our first large scale win… with DoorDash to offer its delivery contractors full banking services… already onboarded a significant number of accounts and cards” .
  • 2025 outlook dynamics: “organically +10% to +12%… at least 125 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion… free cash flow about $5.5B… growth weighted to the second half” — CFO .
  • Capital returns: “repurchased 6 million shares for $1.3B in Q4; $5.5B for the full year” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Clover durability and drivers: Management emphasized continued expansion via new geographies (Brazil, Mexico, Australia), ADP partnership distribution, and increasing software/VAS and hardware attach — “we’re all gas and no brake on this” .
  • Embedded finance and Payfare: Program management capability (in‑house + partners) is strategic for DoorDash and future embedded clients; Payfare adds capabilities pending close .
  • January trends: Early 1Q trends in line with Q4; consumer remains resilient; FX and Argentina effects expected to normalize in 2025 .
  • Issuer timing: Issuer softness in Q4 attributed to plastic/statements timing; Target go‑live late March; Verizon in September; Desjardins in 2026 .
  • CashFlow Central ramp: Revenue contribution starts in 2H25; management sees “meaningful” by 2026 given FI adoption trajectory .

Estimates Context

  • Consensus from S&P Global was unavailable at query time due to an SPGI daily request limit being exceeded. As a result, we cannot provide vs‑consensus comparisons for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS or for forward periods at this time. If desired, we can refresh and add an estimates table once access resumes.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality print with operating leverage: Adjusted EPS +15% on +13% organic growth; adjusted operating margin +180 bps to 42.9% shows execution and mix benefits .
  • Merchant engine remains the growth fulcrum: Q4 Merchant organic +23%; Clover scale ($2.7B FY) and rising VAS/hardware attach underpin 2025 Merchant organic +12–15% guide .
  • 2025 set‑up: H1 growth comps tougher (Argentina normalization, onetime items), but H2 weighted recovery as Target/Verizon/geo‑expansion and new product rollouts kick in; operating leverage intact (≥125 bps AOM expansion) .
  • Expanding TAM via embedded finance and SMB suite: DoorDash ramp and Payfare (pending close) broaden offering; ADP partnership integrates payroll with Clover/XD to deepen FI and SMB penetration .
  • Cash returns supported by cash generation: FY24 FCF $5.233B; FY25 FCF ~ $5.5B; continued buybacks expected with spend ahead of FCF .
  • Non‑GAAP adjustments matter: GAAP EPS reflects $595M equity‑method impairment and $147M pension settlement; adj EPS strips these plus sizeable intangible amortization, aligning better with underlying trends .
  • Near‑term narrative catalysts: visible H2 ramps (Target/Verizon), VAS penetration moving toward 25%, and Merchant mix/margins; watch H1 cadence and “below the line” interest headwind .