Fluence Energy - Q2 2024
May 9, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to Fluence Energy Inc. Q2 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lex May, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lex May (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Fluence Energy's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. A copy of our earnings presentation, press release, and supplementary metric sheet covering financial results, along with supporting statements and schedules, including reconciliations and disclosures regarding non-GAAP financial measures, are posted on the investor relations section of our website at fluenceenergy.com. Joining me on this morning's call are Julian Nebreda, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Ahmed Pasha, our Chief Financial Officer, and Rebecca Boll, our Chief Products Officer. During the course of this call, Fluence management may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters relating to our business and company that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon the current expectations and certain assumptions and are therefore subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially.
Please refer to our SEC filings for our forward-looking statements and for more information regarding certain risks and uncertainties that could impact our future results. You are cautioned to not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today. Also, please note that the company undertakes no duty to update or revise forward-looking statements for new information. This call will also reference non-GAAP measures that we view as important in assessing the performance of our business. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure is available in our earnings materials on the company's investor relations website. Following our prepared comments, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with our team. During this time, to give more participants an opportunity to speak on this call, please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow-up. Thank you very much.
I'll now turn the call over to Julian.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Thank you, Lex. I would like to extend a warm welcome to our investors, analysts, and employees who are participating on today's call. I will provide a brief update on our business and then review progress on our strategic objectives. Ahmed will then give more details on our financial results and outlook. Beginning on slide 4 with the key highlights, I'm pleased to report that in the second quarter, we had a strong financial performance as we recognized $623 million of revenue and increased our gross margin and cash flow generation. We delivered our third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth margin. Our Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was approximately -$6 million, significantly improved from the same period last year. We ended the quarter with $541 million of cash, an increase of $65 million from December 31.
Additionally, we recognized more than $700 million of new orders. Our solution business contracted 2.2 GWh, our services business added 900 MWh, and our digital business added 3.1 GW of new orders. Our signed contract backlog as of March 31 was 3.7 billion dollars, which was in line with our December 31 level. As revenue recognized this quarter and a couple of small adjustments offset the additional order intake. The increasing number of opportunities was reflected in the growth of our pipeline, which increased by $2.9 billion to $16.3 billion, thus giving us additional confidence in our revenue growth outlook for fiscal year 2025 and beyond. We had a strong quarter in our digital business, adding 3.1 contracted GW to our backlog.
Our digital assets under management increased by 200 megawatts to 17.2 gigawatts as of March 31. In summary, our combined services and digital annual recurring revenue, or AR, improved to approximately $68 million as of March 31. Turning to Slide five, I'd like to discuss our progress on the five strategic objectives that guide our decisions and actions. They're also important markers that investors can monitor and measure our performance against. First, on delivering profitable growth. I'm pleased to report that we have generated a record amount of free cash flow of approximately $88 million for the first half of our fiscal year. This is a proof point of the success of our business model and working capital management capabilities . . . that result in a significant amount of cash generation. Second, we will continue to develop products and solutions that our customers need.
As such, I am pleased to report that during the quarter, we expanded our Gridstack Pro line to include the 5000 series, which is our larger and more energy-dense 5-megawatt, 20-foot enclosure, which I will discuss in more detail. Additionally, we signed our first domestic content contract that will allow our customers to benefit from incremental incentives on the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA. We are seeing tremendous interest from customers for U.S. domestic content products. We believe we are well positioned to capitalize on this momentum, as we are one of the first companies capable of providing customers with products that we expect to qualify for domestic content under the IRA. Third, we are on track for our U.S. battery module manufacturing to begin initial production at our facility later this year.
This battery module is a key piece that will enable us to provide a product that meets the U.S. domestic content requirements for battery energy storage. Fourth, we will use Fluence Digital as a competitive differentiator and a margin driver. I am pleased to report that our digital contract backlog increased by about 75% on a dollar basis from this time last year. Our fifth objective is to work better. I'm proud to state that in April, Fluence released its second annual sustainability report, which builds upon the sustainability disclosures from our inaugural report, published in April of 2023, and provides updates on Fluence sustainability strategy, which I will touch on more in a moment. Turning to slide six. We continue to see strong growth in demand for utility scale energy storage systems.
This is the 10th consecutive quarter of order intake, outpacing revenue recognized, showcasing the robust growth in utility-scale energy storage. Our backlog of $3.7 billion provides strong visibility to future revenue. As Ahmed will discuss in more detail, we're reaffirming our guidance ranges for both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. To that end, we have approximately 90% of the midpoint of our revenue guidance covered by our backlog, plus revenue recognized year-to-date. Based on the conversations we're having with our customers and potential customers, we're expecting to see continuous strong revenue growth in fiscal 2025, of approximately 35%-40% from fiscal 2024 guidance midpoint. Our 2025 outlook is underpinned by our pipeline, which sits at approximately $16.3 billion, and grew $2.9 billion from last quarter.
Our expectations for pipeline conversion is at a 50% probability over the next 24 months. I am increasingly encouraged by the growing number of opportunities we see around the world. As you can see from the chart on this slide, BNEF has forecasted between now and 2030, global new capacity additions for utility scale storage of nearly 670 GWh, including China. This is a major opportunity for us to continue our growth. We have a significant presence in some of the markets outside the United States, where we expect to see the strongest growth. For example, Germany, our third largest market and biggest European market. Battery energy storage is gaining increasing significance in Germany, as the country accelerates its transition towards renewable energy sources, and aims to phase out nuclear power and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
As a result, BNEF sees this market adding nearly 23 gigawatt hours of new capacity between now and 2030. Additionally, Germany is a growing market for Ultrastack, our transmission solution, and we have been very, very successful capturing opportunities as they come to market. Australia has quickly become our second largest market. BNEF sees this market adding nearly 25 gigawatt hours of new capacity between now and 2030. As Australia continues to transition towards a more sustainable energy future, the battery storage market is experiencing significant growth. We have been successful capturing a good portion of these opportunities, and we are committed to expand our presence in this market as we move forward. The United States is our largest market.
Battery energy storage is playing an increasingly vital role in the U.S., as the nation seeks to modernize its energy infrastructure, enhance grid resilience, and transition towards cleaner and more sustainable sources of power. Furthermore, the IRA has spurred a significant amount of demand. BNEF sees nearly 350 gigawatt hours of new capacity added between now and 2030. This is a tremendous amount, and represents a huge opportunity for us to capitalize on with our expanded product offering, such as our Gridstack Pro line, which includes our U.S. domestic content offering. More importantly, the utility scale battery storage sector in the United States has demonstrated remarkable resilience to political shifts and changes in administrations, largely due to its strong economic foundations and bipartisan support for grid modernization and clean energy infrastructure.
The success of utility scale battery storage projects in the United States is driven by economic factors, such as the declining cost of battery technology, its technological advantage against other capacity firming solutions, and the increasing and urgent need for grid flexibility and resilience. The need continues to increase as renewable energy continues to improve its costs, and becomes the most economical energy source, even for states that traditionally had relied on fossil fuels. Overall, the U.S. energy storage outlooks remain very robust, and the intertwining of economic opportunity and technological advancement has positioned the utility scale battery storage sector as a resilient and thriving component of American energy landscape, with support all around the political spectrum. Turning to slide seven. Fluence has significantly expanded its Gridstack Pro line to serve a wide range of project needs and enhance the versatility of any storage solution.
The line comprises three enclosure sizes, namely the 1000, the 2000, and the 5000 Series, each sharing core components, certifications, and operating systems to ensure Fluence's consistent domain expertise across the board. This modular approach enables different configurations, allowing for mixing and matching of enclosures to precisely meet the requirement of specific projects while maintaining competitive, usable energy prices. By offering a variety of storage capacity, the Gridstack Pro line effectively addresses the issue of system overbuilding and contributes to reducing the cost per kilowatt hour. The highlight of the Gridstack Pro line expansion is our ability to utilize one platform to seamlessly and faster integrate new cell technology without modifications to the platform. Additionally, the 5000 Series has remarkable energy density, offering an impressive 5-6 MWh in a single 20-foot enclosure.
This high energy density not only optimizes land usage at project sites, but also enhances overall efficiency, making it an attractive solution for space-constrained installations. Moreover, the Gridstack Pro line prioritizes safety, surpassing the industry standard by successfully passing Fluence's internally developed Beyond Burn test. This commitment to safety ensures peace of mind for customers and stakeholders alike, reinforcing Fluence's reputation as a reliable provider of energy storage solutions. Furthermore, the Gridstack Pro line is built with Fluence modules, battery management systems, electronics, and software, all developed or fully controlled by Fluence to mitigate any concerns related to cybersecurity or policy issues. To better service U.S. customers, Fluence offers the Fluence battery pack with domestically manufactured cells and modules, making the Gridstack Pro line one of the first storage solutions eligible for the 10% Investment Tax Credit bonus under the IRA.
This initiative not only supports the domestic manufacturing sector, but also incentivizes the adoption of energy storage technologies in the United States, contributing to the nation's energy security and sustainability goals. Turning to slide 8. As I mentioned earlier, we recently signed our first contract for a product that qualifies for domestic content, allowing our customers to capture an incremental 10% Investment Tax Credit. We're seeing tremendous interest from customers for our domestic content offering, and we expect to sign additional contracts in the coming quarters, as it is competitively priced against non-U.S. alternatives that do not include the additional 10% ITC. Our proprietary battery modules are at the heart of our domestic content offering, and it is key to meeting the criteria established by the U.S. Treasury Department.
By manufacturing our own battery modules, we will also qualify for IRS Section 45X benefits, which includes an incentive payment of $10 per kW for battery modules produced in the US. We're currently on schedule to begin our initial production later this year, gradually ramping up over the subsequent quarters.... Turning to slide nine. I'm proud to report that in April, Fluence released its second annual sustainability report, which builds upon the sustainability disclosures from our inaugural report, published in April of 2023, and provides updates on Fluence sustainability strategy. Some of the highlights from the report include we expanded our green gas footprint analysis into Scope 3 and clarified reporting boundaries.
We offset 60% of our global business travel emissions from flights, and we kick off a Scope 2 emissions reduction effort for Fluence facilities, including switching our Erlangen facility in Germany to 100% renewable electricity. In conclusion, I'm pleased with the achievements of the second quarter. Although we are mindful there's still work to be done, we will look to continue this momentum as we progress through 2024. I will now turn the call over to Ahmed.
Ahmed Pasha (CFO)
Thank you, Julian, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will review our second quarter financial results and then discuss our 2024 guidance. Beginning with our second quarter 2024 results on slide 11. We generated $623 million in revenue, which puts us at $1 billion or 33% of the midpoint of our full year guidance of $3 billion. I would like to note that year-to-date revenue is approximately $100 million ahead of prior expectations of 30% or $900 million of annual revenue in the first half, as we were able to complete certain projects in Americas earlier than the third quarter. In terms of profitability, we generated approximately $66 million Adjusted Gross Margin, or 10.6%, representing the third consecutive quarter of generating double-digit gross margin.
These results also include a modest expense from settling our pending litigation with Siemens Energy. Our continued execution further demonstrates that our legacy backlog issues are behind us, and we are benefiting from our higher margin backlog. Our operating expenses were $74 million, representing 11.9% of quarterly revenue, which is down from 17% in the first quarter. This continued momentum also reflects in our improving EBITDA. More specifically, this quarter, EBITDA materially improved to -$6 million versus -$28 million in Q2 2023, and -$18 million in Q1 2024. Overall, we believe these results reflect our disciplined approach to grow our top line and improve our bottom line to deliver on our financial commitments. Turning to slide 12. Before I talk about our liquidity, I would like to share that our continued focus on profitability and proactive working capital management has yielded positive results.
This reflects in our positive year-to-date free cash flow performance of $88 million. In terms of cash, I am pleased to report that we ended the second quarter with $541 million of total cash, an increase of approximately $65 million since last quarter, and the fourth consecutive quarter that we increased our total cash position. In summary, we have total liquidity of nearly $590 million, which we believe puts us in an excellent position to capitalize on the growing energy storage market. Moving to slide 13. As Julian noted, based on our year-to-date performance and outlook for the second half, we are reaffirming our guidance ranges for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2024, at a midpoint of $3 billion and $65 million, respectively.
At this point in the year, we have approximately 90% of the midpoint of our revenue guidance covered by awarded projects, plus actual revenue recognized in the first half. Furthermore, we are on track to achieve ARR of approximately $80 million by the end of fiscal 2024. I would also like to spend a moment on our year-to-go expectations. Specifically, we expect approximately 20% of our second half revenue to be realized in the third quarter and 80% in the fourth quarter. This split reflects two factors. First, the timing of projects in our backlog, which are largely scheduled to be delivered in Q4 this year. As a reminder, our revenue is recognized as we hit certain milestones. For example, the majority of our Q4 project milestones are for production and delivery of cubes, which is within our control.
To that end, we have secured the necessary batteries, manufacturing slots, and logistics. These factors provide us confidence in our ability to deliver on our revenue targets. And second, as I previously mentioned, we had approximately $100 million of revenue pulled into Q2 from Q3. Finally, looking ahead to fiscal year 2025, we continue to believe that we will achieve approximately 35%-40% year-over-year revenue growth from the midpoint of our fiscal 2024 guidance range. With that, let me turn the call back to Julian for his closing remarks.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Thank you, Ahmed. Turning to slide 14, and in conclusion, I want to emphasize the key takeaways from this quarter's results. First, we had a record-setting free cash flow generation of approximately $88 million for the first half of this year. This is a proof point for the success of our business model and the free cash flow it can generate. This cash generation also contributed to our strong liquidity position of nearly $590 million. Second, the outlook for utility scale storage is very robust, and there is a great opportunity for our new products to deliver value to our customers. More importantly, our space is well-insulated from the upcoming U.S. elections, and we do not anticipate any significant impacts to demand as a result. So we are on track to begin our U.S. module manufacturing later this year.
Together with our customers, we believe we are in a prime position to capture demand for products that qualify for the U.S. domestic content bonus. Finally, this is our third consecutive quarter of double-digit gross margins, which reflects our continuous commitment to deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. This concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster, and we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Again, that's one question and one follow-up. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from George Gianarikas from Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open.
George Gianarikas (Managing Director)
Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Good morning, George. How are you?
George Gianarikas (Managing Director)
Doing great. How are you?
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Doing great.
George Gianarikas (Managing Director)
I was wondering if you can maybe discuss the data center opportunity and how much traction you've seen there, and how your conversations have changed, if at all, recently. Thank you.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Great. Thank you very much, George. So what's happening with data centers? You know, as we've seen GenAI become more of a commonplace technology and all the technology providers coming up with a GenAI solution, the GenAI or general artificial intelligence technology requires these, you know, GPU graphics processing units, which are the chips that allow for parallel computing. And what happens to the chips, that they require a lot more energy, you know, 5 times what the old technology needed. So what we see is that, you know, data centers are scrambling for energy. And they have been looking at, you know, as you know, most of the solutions they have seen today is that they've been looking for renewable firm renewable energy, you know, 24/7 renewable energy that they can source from the grid.
And we have been, you know, very, very successful through our customers, you know, the IPPs of the world that serve these players, you know, Clearway, AES, you know, Ørsted, helping them firm their offering. You know, and that's, you know, our normal business, and that has gone very, very well, and we see tremendous demand, and you'll see some of the announcements that these companies put out. We are behind some of these announcements with our technology. But as data centers, and this is where I think it's becoming more interesting for us and is opening it up, as data centers are looking for other solutions, not because they are realizing that, probably, especially the time they need to meet their needs.
Through the grid with renewable energy is becoming a little bit more difficult or a little bit strained, or they have had some challenges. They are looking for solutions they can that outside of the grid, you know, either connecting. And you saw the big deal Constellation, and there are more things around, that they're looking for solutions outside the grid. But they still need the firm capacity, so they are looking for to see what can they do outside the grid with firm capacity. What we have done is that we started looking at what can we do to support that effort. How can we do. You know, we've been very, very successful supporting the on-grid, you know, solution. What can we do supporting the off-grid solutions, either with renewables or thermal?
We have identified several needs that we believe our technology is very well positioned to resolve. Especially, I think, I'll tell you what we see is what, you know, what helps us here, is that our technology is the fastest way of firming capacity in the power sectors. If you need a whole 24... of any capacity, either, you know, any capacity, the fastest way to firming that capacity and ensuring, you know, 24/7, 100% availability, if you are off the grid or on the grid, battery technology is the best way to do it. There's nothing that is anywhere near. And that's what we've been now, you know, working on. We've been talking to the developers of data centers, to some of the companies that help them resolve some of these problems, to identify those needs and, you know, prototype those solutions.
We don't have the products today to announce, but we have identified, I think, a very, you know, a big territory where we can, you know, where our capacity, and I say the same speed is what I think at the end of the day, resolves this. The speed and our cost, clearly, our speed and cost allow, will allow us to help them on some of the stuff. Yes, I'll say more to come. You know, we are, this is in the initial, you know, starting. We have not been able to prototype it, to announce it today at this stage, but we hope to continue working on this and coming up with a solution. Great. You know, this is clearly a great opportunity in front of us.
We're excited with it, and we see, as I said, this is something that a year ago wasn't in our radar. You know, we were working with all these companies and doing this 24/7 renewals. Now it opens a new set of solutions that is bringing us into a new territory that's, you know, exciting and industry changing, and so thanks. Thanks, George.
George Gianarikas (Managing Director)
Thank you. Maybe as a follow-up to that, are you seeing increased interest for long duration energy storage solutions? Is that something that's on your radar? Thanks.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
I think that when we looked at the sort of these off-grid solutions, clearly longer duration is part of it, you know? So the way we think of, you know, our technology can do more than the four hours we usually do. We tend to offer the customer. The reason why four hours has been kind of the sweet spot is because the market, you know, there's an economic value for a four-hour system that kind of disappears once you go to six, eight, 12, you know, eight, nine. So longer duration will play a role, and we are. That's one of the things we're looking at, how much can we spend, what we can do to ensure that we can support these solutions.
You know, with our technology, you know, doing more than 12 is more difficult because of the economics. How does it work? But you know, we believe that there's a sweet spot where we can meet very, very easily, or not very easily, but we can meet to support this technology. You know, longer duration than the four hours will be part of what we need to work on.
George Gianarikas (Managing Director)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs and Company. Your line is now open.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Good morning, Brian.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, Julian. Thanks for taking the questions, and kudos on the solid execution continuing here. I guess, you know, the question I had. I had two of them, but one was just on the cadence of revenue. You know, you're talking about the revenue pull forward, and then, you know, the quite significant weighting into four Q versus three Q. So, it sounds like you have a high degree of confidence, you know, around the timing of these projects, but can you speak to sort of, you know, visibility? I know just sometimes the market gets antsy about really back-end weighted cadences, and that's happening here with the three Q, four Q that you're outlining.
So what's kind of your confidence level of visibility into those projects turning over in that timeframe and not having any potential risk to slipping out? Just any kind of color you can provide there would be helpful.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Yeah. So, you know, I'll first. I think let's talk revenue recognition, because I think it's important to get to know. So what do we have? We have, the way we work, the way our revenue recognition formula works, you know, there's some recognition at the beginning when we sign the contract, do the engineering, order the equipment. Then there is a significant, and this is the bulk of our revenue recognition, is when we transfer title of the equipment to the customer, and then, you know, additional revenue recognition at substantial completion and final completion. The great bulk of it is transferring title of the equipment once it's manufactured to the customer.
When you looked at the fourth quarter, which is your question, okay, now you have all this significant fourth quarter revenue, what, you know, can you deliver on this? And when you looked at it, you know, a big portion of it, and not to give you exact number, but a significant or a big, more than the majority of it, close to, you know, the... It is transferring title of equipment. So equipment, we need to manufacture, and we need to transfer title to our customers. So we have the supply, we have the slots in the manufacturing, we've been manufacturing this stuff very, very well. We see very, you know, very, very little risk that we will not be able to do that on the timeframe, you know, we can, you know, we have our logistics working very well.
There is very, very little risk that that will happen, and that will cover a significant portion of the revenue that we have for the fourth quarter. Then the number of, you know, say, well, okay, great, wonderful. It is, you know, manufacturing and moving things around. You can do that. You've been, you know, you've shown that you are now doing that very, very well. That should not be a problem. The other issue is that there is a limited number of customers, even though it sounds like a huge amount of money, it is, you know, 20 to 25 projects that we need to do with. You know, with our prototype solutions, this is something that we can do very, very easily. So, you know, we feel very confident that this can be done. What drives this?
Which is the other point. You know, we just say, "Well, why are you so back-ended?" At the end of the day, the back end that is set by the fact that our customers want those projects delivered on those dates, you know? We try to work with our customers to accelerate it, you know, and ensure that we're, when we do the EPC, when we do the, you know, the site preparation for receiving this equipment, that we are trying to accelerate it as much as we can to try to move it closer, and we have had some success. But at the end of the day, it is driven by that point.... When do our customers want to have their products in their facilities and transfer title?
That's what sets very much what this is. So, some people have asked me: Well, is this seasonality gonna repeat itself. You know, it's difficult to see it because when we go back and look at our history, it moves around, you know. So this year is all a lot back-ended. Last year was very, very, very, very divided equally around each quarter. The year before it was, you know, the, it was, it was in the center where most of the, of the the center of our fiscal year, where most of the revenue was. So it moves around. It moves around because it is driven by our customer projects timing, which in a way, also is driven by what they sign with their own PPA.
So going back, this, you know, this mostly driven by delivery or transferring title of manufactured cubes to our customers. Limited number of cost, you know, projects, 20-25. Not a-- we're not talking here huge amounts. We've been very, very good at doing this, so we had very, very good KPIs in the, you know, close to 100% in terms of delivery capability. So we believe- so, you know, unless there is a global disruption that stops the world trade, we should be able to do this. So we have, you know, we have very, very high confidence on our Q4, and we are very-- that's why we reaffirm guidance. We see very, very slow, we have the-- we're very, very confident on it. I will let Ahmed add a little bit here, more color.
Ahmed Pasha (CFO)
Yeah, I think that's a great question, and I think, the only thing I would add to what, Julian had just mentioned is, if you look at our last 12 months' performance, we have been executing on every project, you know, on time and on budget. I think that gives us additional, confidence in our ability to deliver, particularly when we have all those cubes and, equipment and logistics lined up, for delivery in Q4.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Great.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Okay. I appreciate all that additional color, guys. Maybe one more, if I could squeeze in a gross margin one. You know, you also have the high end of the range you're talking about, of the 10%-12% gross margins in 4Q. I know you're not, you know, big fans of you speaking to all the gross margin targets, it's more about EBITDA. But if you've got that sort of momentum exiting the year, you still have this 35%-40% revenue growth outlook for fiscal 2025. Kind of give us a sense of, you know, should we be starting off kind of in that range, you know, call it high end of the 10%-12% as we look into fiscal 2025? Just, I know the longer-term margin targets are into the mid-teens.
Just wondering if you start to approach those even into fiscal 2025, given the year-end momentum, plus the revenue growth, additional that you're expecting for next year? Thanks, guys.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
So, let me first on this year. You know, 10-12 is a gross margin even though, as you said, I wanted all of you to come with me to Adjusted EBITDA. I know you all feel like gross margin very much. So we are, we've been, you know, clear on this. So for this year, 10-12, so 11 should be the midpoint. We will be there, but when you look this year at the end of the year, you know, and you look back, so, you know, very confident. On 2025, what we had said, even though we have not provided, you know, guidance on 2025, what I said is the following: For top line growth, 35%-40% over our this year's midpoint guidance.
So out of the $3 billion that we have at the midpoint, 35%-40%, that kind of puts it at $4 billion, or, you know, if you put the middle of that range, it's $4 billion for revenue top line growth on 2024. Then from gross margin, as we said we believe 10%-15%, so the middle of the range, 12.5%, and that's where we are today. You know, I don't think we can, I can tell you today that we will get a tailwind that will put us anywhere else for next year. That's what I'm telling you today; this is said very much by the order intake. But we will clearly, if we can offer you something better, we will.
But today, our view for 2025 is a 10-15, which will put it at 12.5. And then for Adjusted EBITDA, you know, we said our OpEx, you know, our operating leverage, we believe that our OpEx will not grow at more than 50% of our top line growth. So that will give you kind of a whack of where should we be for 2025, and that's kind of where we are today. As we clearly, as the year progresses and we see, and we have more and more of the of that of the revenue for 2025 in our backlog, we will confirm these numbers and you know, walk you through.
If there's an opportunity to be more to do better, we'll let you know. But today, our view, it confirms our 10-15 growth margin in 2025, you know?
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
All right. Thanks, guys. I'll pass it on. Appreciate it.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Thanks, Brian.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Dylan Nassano from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Dylan Nassano (Senior VP)
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Hey, Dylan, how are you?
Dylan Nassano (Senior VP)
Good. Thank you for taking my question. So just wanted to check, there's been a lot of talk recently about solar projects getting delayed, interconnection issues, equipment shortages, et cetera. Is this something you guys are exposed to at all? Is there any read-through to your answer to Brian's question about the back end weighting of the year?
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
... Not, you know, not really. I mean, what we—as I said, a lot of our back-ended is delivery of manufactured products to our site or transfer and title, to be very clear what drives the transfer and title. Usually, very much it happens at the site in most cases, and when the sites are ready. As you know, we had had a rule in our contracts where customers are required to take title in cases where they have some delays, you know? In cases where in our backlog, it's usually more connected to EPC stuff, you know, things that are not built on time, usually weeks rather than months, but, you know.
So when we have seen delays, what we have in our contracts, the customers are required to take title, you know, at a specific point in time. So that's generally how it works. What we see for 2025, for this, sorry, for 2024, what we see in the fourth quarter, these are projects that are already were still in the civil works, you know. Can you imagine? We have to get them ready. So we know exactly where they are. We know we're working with the customers, and we do not foresee any delays in, you know, in related projects or related elements that could disrupt our delivery projects.
At the end of the day, we have the safeguard that if things get delayed beyond a certain point, customers are required to take title after it happens. Only, Ahmed, to what we-
Ahmed Pasha (CFO)
No, I think the only thing I, Julian, would add is we signed these contracts 12-18 months ago. And when we sign a contract or start construction, I think generally the customers have already all those permits in place, and that's when they issue a notice to proceed. So we feel pretty good about our execution because they have. There's nothing pending as such that could derail, particularly with reference to your question, which is the interconnection issues.
Dylan Nassano (Senior VP)
Got it. Thank you. Then just quick follow-up. Any recent developments with any of the outstanding litigation that we expect to be kind of resolved one way or the other anytime soon? Anything you can say there would be helpful. Thank you.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Yeah. Oh, great. Thanks, Dylan. So we, I think, Ahmed mentioned it during the call. We settled the Siemens Energy litigation. And just to remind everybody who might be listening, Siemens Energy is not Siemens AG, our shareholder. Siemens Energy is a customer related to our shareholder, but not, not our shareholder. We settled that litigation. As we have told you in the past, that was an immaterial litigation, normal course of business litigation, immaterial. We settled it in terms that is even more immaterial than the litigation, and it's, you know, a fraction of the claims that the customer had. And as I have said in the past, Siemens Energy is not a customer, a significant customer. So we have done very, very little with them.
So if, you know, when we start this litigation, you lose litigations with normal course of business. It's part of how you resolve a problem. I think at the end of the day, we resolved it in a way that was satisfactory for both Siemens Energy and ourselves. The other two, nothing really, nothing really material to inform you at this stage. You know, the other two, the other one, which is the Diablo litigation, nothing really that. You know, nothing has moved significantly there. And the Moss Landing incident, which is something that was also referred to, we have talked in the past, there's no litigation, there's no pending litigation on that, and at this stage, there's nothing really material to communicate.
But Siemens Energy, as I mentioned, Siemens Energy, and let me repeat it again, was settled in conditions that are, you know, beneficial to both parties. And as I said, the litigation was immaterial, the settlement agreement is also immaterial as well.
Dylan Nassano (Senior VP)
Got it. Thank you. And congrats on putting that Siemens issue behind you.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Yeah, thank you.
Dylan Nassano (Senior VP)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Mark Strouse from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Hey, Mark.
Mark Strouse (Executive Director)
Yes, good morning.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Mark Strouse (Executive Director)
Hey, Julian, good morning. Thank you very much for taking our questions. So following up on Dylan there, so appreciate you're not seeing delays in your backlog projects, but I guess my question would be, just when you're looking at your pipeline, is there anything that you're seeing there as far as kind of the you know, maybe an elongation of the timing between when you're issuing a quote to when you're getting a final order? You know, any kind of qualitative conversations you're having-
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Hmm.
Mark Strouse (Executive Director)
with folks about the next several years' projects potentially getting delayed?
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
What comes into our pipeline are usually, are not usually, are projects that are very mature in the, in the, you know, interconnection queue, because, you know, these are projects that we see you can deliver at a-- that we can convert into backlog within the next 24 months. So generally, you don't see that by, by, you know, delay type of problem there because they're already, you know, if-- when they come to us, they've been already 3 years in the, in, in, in the queue. So they know exactly how they connect, they know what they need to do. It's very, very. That, that one, and it becomes more an execution more than anything.
We have something that we don't disclose that much to all of you, which are leads, which is all the projects we looked at with our customers that are not necessarily, you know, ready for pipeline, but that are projects that we believe are, you know, we will work as we looked at the long-term planning of some of our customers. Those are more, you know, less mature. And those probably, you know, I'll tell you that we have a conservative view of them, so, you know, already. So I don't know whether I have seen any deterioration in terms of timing from what we were seeing a year ago. You know, it is the same, you know, but we see a lot more coming into that group and a lot more players.
And if you looked at the pipeline, at the queue in the U.S., is almost a tera of battery storage that is getting into a queue, see it's huge. Not all of it will convert. So I'll say the color I can give you on that is that those leads, the things that are in early in the queue and are going what we have seen is an explosion, a lot and a lot more projects of those. You know, we are that's not where we spend most of our time, but we are that makes us very, very confident that we, you know, that this business has, you know, a huge tailwind, you know, very, very strong tailwinds going forward.
In terms of our pipeline, as I said, we, you know, it's all usually very much mature projects that have been there almost two, three years already in the queue. They know when they're gonna happen, and we have a view. I haven't seen any deterioration of any sort in the last year. These queue issues, mostly a U.S. issue, you know, the other countries, even though they have, you know, transmission queues and delays, they manage it very, very differently. So systems in other markets are a lot more certain. What I mean a lot more certain, is once you get into a line, you know that something's gonna happen by a certain date, and so they work differently.
So you don't see the situation that you see in the US, where you have these six years, five years queues on the line. But I think the great news this quarter, if you ask me, we've to highlight, and we're gonna repeat a point, but is this, you know, 1 tera of, you know, when you looked at the queue nationally in the US, it's almost 1 tera, or from 1,000 gigawatts of capacity, we're looking to connect to the grid, which is, you know, a mind-blowing number and a great opportunity, you know?
Mark Strouse (Executive Director)
Yeah. Yeah, that's great to hear. Thank you, Julian. Just a quick follow-up. You know, congrats on signing your first domestic content contract. Not necessarily looking for specifics on that contract, but I'd imagine you're having quite a few conversations with other folks there. You've said in the past that the 45X manufacturing tax credits would still kind of put you in your target gross margin range. Just curious, you know, now that we're getting closer to more and more of these contracts hitting, if you can provide an update on that commentary about gross margin impact.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
You know, as I said, the 45X, $10 per module manufactured in the U.S., we have said that's gonna be within our 10-15. It should not move us out. What we have said in the past is that we believe our domestic content, because of the first-mover advantage, because, you know, we have been able to sign the first one, and we are the... Let me put this, we are the most secure way of any customer who wants to domestic content to capture it, of all the offerings around. That's, you know. Not only we are a first-mover advantage, but our the, the, our ability to deliver is significantly the risk from what some other players are you know, trying to offer. Because of that, we believe there is an opportunity to potentially expand our margins.
We're working on it. I think it's too early still to communicate it. I said I don't wanna negotiate against myself, announcing stuff that then comes and hits me. But, you know, we believe because of that point, because of when. It's not only the first-mover advantage, which is something that we have mentioned many times in the past, but it's because when we have looked in detail at what the other, or our competitors are offering, we are by far the most secure way, the less risky way, to capture that. Our offering is the most robust, the one that will provide higher certainty, you know, that customers will be able to capture that. And I think that is also a competitive advantage, you know? So I hope we are. Stay tuned.
We have always said, just to go back, this is a order intake for 2024, generally domestic content, mostly revenue in 2025 and 2026 and going forward, but, but it will not—we will not—none of our 2024 revenue is dependent on domestic content or any way. This is a 2025 onward revenue mover, so.
Mark Strouse (Executive Director)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Justin Clare from Roth MKM. Your line is now open.
Justin Clare (Managing Director)
Hi, good morning.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Good morning, Justin. How are you?
Justin Clare (Managing Director)
I'm doing well. So, just to follow up on the Domestic Content here, it sounds like you're seeing very strong demand for products that will qualify for the Domestic Content adder. So just wondering, you know, as we head into 2025 and then even into 2026, how much of your total sales in the US do you think will include, you know, domestically produced battery cells and battery modules? Could this be a considerable portion of your sales in the US market?
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
... Yeah, I would say that over time, this will be the main, you know, we believe this is gonna be table stakes in the U.S., that U.S. players will demand domestic content as a table stake over time. It will not happen immediately, so, you know, 2025, there will be a combination, and 2026, and it will move forward as we get along. It's difficult to know, to tell you exactly what will be the distribution of revenue in 2025, how much will be, you know, domestic content, and how much will be because of the long lead time of some of these projects.
But I, our view and the way we have designed our plan is that over time, this will be the only - the most, the Domestic Content will represent the great majority of the U.S. market, no?
Justin Clare (Managing Director)
Got it. Okay. And then, and then just given that, can you just update us on your plans to potentially expand your manufacturing footprint, either in the U.S. or internationally? You know, what could the timing potentially be, and then the magnitude of a potential expansion?
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Yeah. We continue to work out of our facility in Utah, in the U.S. We have looked at some plans of moving some nearshoring the production of the battery cells, but today those dates have not been set. So for now, we'll, you know, our current plan in the U.S. is staying in Utah, I think where most of, you know, our biggest markets are in the western side of the U.S. still today, and that facility has the capability to expand, and we can double the expansion quickly. So not any real plans, even though we have not set any dates for the potential expansion on the eastern side of, you know, closer to the eastern side of the U.S.
In terms of Europe, we continue to look at it, so that's, that continues to be, an opportunity that we are evaluating. We haven't set dates yet. It requires to build an ecosystem, so that's what we're looking for, and as we build that ecosystems and reach economy, bigger economy scale, we will set dates and commitments. And then for APAC, even though we manufacture out of Vietnam, we're looking at India, I would say, in more detail today. Not only to serve that India market, but we believe that India will be, could be a great place to manufacture our products.
There's, like, you know, great manufacturing companies, and we can combine—we can create an ecosystem probably faster than what we can create an ecosystem in Europe. So that if I were to tell you where we are today, probably our first, you know, our next announcements in terms of manufacturing capabilities will probably be in India rather than in the Eastern US or Western Europe, the world.
Justin Clare (Managing Director)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our final question. Our final question comes from Kashy Harrison from Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.
Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)
Good morning, all, and thanks for taking the questions.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Hey, Kashy, how are you?
Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)
Good, thank you. You know, just a clarifying question for you, Julian. Were you saying that even if your customers have issues securing critical equipment, that the contracts still require them to take title? And then, you know, just outside of force majeure events, is there any scenario in which there could be a delay in them taking title from you?
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
You know, what I said, if our contracts require our customers to take title if there are significant delays. So there's a safeguard at the end of the process. If by a certain date, the customer doesn't have the site ready or wants to have any storage, they take title out of our equipment, you know, usually in a warehouse close to the site, no? So but that's a safeguard, I'll tell you, seldom used, doesn't happen all the time, but it's a safeguard that makes me feel more confident that, you know, which is our, the message is I was trying to communicate, that our 2024 fourth quarter revenue is very much secure. Not that even if our customers had a problem, you know, putting in the padlocks or doing anything, we will be able to take it, one customer.
But where we are today, you know, said for the last years, we've been very, very good. Our customers have been very, very good. We have not seen any major, you know, delays, maybe a week here or there, a week there, but, you know, nothing that's in any way significant. So that's how the contracts do work, and I was... This is not something that we, as I said, are provisional contracts that we do not exercise, we exercise constantly, but it's something that if the things were complicated, you can always use. And generally, we do this in a very, very amicable way with our customers on major issues, so.
Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)
That's super helpful.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
It was more to give. Yeah, it was more to give, to provide confidence to all of you, because I understand all this revenue in the fourth quarter, hey, you can do it, you know. I, I might mention, we've been doing this very, very well for the last year or so, year and a half. Great. You know, it is essentially manufacturing and logistics, wonderful. Not that many customers, 20-25, wonderful. And if things get bad, you know, for any reason, you know, we still have the safeguard, no? So that, that's the way I will, I will put it at. Yeah, except I think you mentioned it, except for force majeure, you know, something that then that, that's a very different world, you know? But even today, with the situation in the Red Sea, you know, we don't have a lot through the Red Sea.
As we said, you know, 15 of our volume passes through the Red Sea. Very, very low. But even that added, you know, a couple of weeks more to the transit time of our equipment. We were able to manage it within our, you know, time. So even in a situation, let's say, a war in the Middle East, we can manage it very, very well. So it will have to be something really, really disruptive in order to disrupt our capabilities, no? Could happen, unfortunately, but that's the circumstances, no?
Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah, that's all very helpful. You know, as you pointed out, the 80% is a big number. And just maybe for my follow-up question, more so about comments in the slide deck. You know, you highlight demand is growing specifically in ERCOT, CAISO, and MISO. I'm just wondering if you have a sense of what proportion of your customers, you know, are signing PPAs versus just selling merchant, and whether in your discussions with your customers, there's any difference in their ability to secure financing, just depending on which approach they take.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Yeah. On the financing, generally, we, we in the U.S. has worked, have worked with, or and globally, I think it's the same with, you know, tier one, so financing hasn't been an issue. I don't really have a view in the U.S. how much is PPA versus merchant, but I will tell you from my conversations, mostly PPAs. But, you know, I don't have exactly the number, otherwise I cannot tell you 95, but mostly PPAs. And I know that, you know, how I know about it, it's because of the, what they ask from my, you know, what they want from my... The KPIs they want from me, you know, is are PPA connected, are connected to the, the KPIs they are committing to, to their, to their counterparties. So that's how I get a sense. I don't really know the number.
We'll get a number. That's a good question, to make a point of how much of what we have of our order intake it is, you know, PP, firm with PPAs versus, you know, what's merchant. But I'll say the great majority. I just don't know the number from the top of my head.
Kashy Harrison (Senior Research Analyst)
That's, that's still helpful. Thank you.
Julian Nebreda (President and CEO)
Great.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Lex May for closing comments.
Lex May (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you, Justin, and thank you everyone for participating on today's call. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to me. We look forward to speaking with you again when we report our third quarter results. Have a good day.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.