Fluor - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and welcome to Fluor's first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow management's presentation. A replay of today's conference call will be available at approximately 10:30 A.M. Eastern Time today, accessible on Fluor's website at investor.fluor.com. The web replay will be available for 30 days. A telephone replay will also be available for seven days through a registration link, also accessible on Fluor's website at investor.fluor.com. At this time, for opening remarks, I would like to turn the call over to Jason Landkamer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Landkamer.

Jason Landkamer (Executive Director and Head of Investor Relations)

Thanks, JL, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fluor's 2024 first quarter earnings call. David Constable, Fluor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Joe Brennan, Fluor's Chief Financial Officer, are with us today. Fluor issued its first quarter earnings release earlier this morning, and a slide presentation is posted on our website that we will reference while making prepared remarks. Before getting started, I'd like to refer you to our Safe Harbor note regarding forward-looking statements, which is summarized on slide two.

During today's presentation, we'll be making forward-looking statements which reflect our current analysis of existing trends and information. There is an inherent risk that actual results and expenses could differ materially. You can find a discussion of our risk factors, which could potentially contribute to such differences, in our 2023 Form 10-K and in our Form 10-K, which was filed earlier today. During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these amounts to the comparable GAAP measures are reflected in our earnings release and posted in the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.fluor.com. With that, I'll now turn the call over to David Constable, Fluor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. David?

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Please turn to slide three. To get started today, I'll briefly highlight a key component of our Fluor Nordic strategy, centered around our technology hub in Europe. This hub, established three years ago in Copenhagen, is central to our growth strategy in the Nordic region. Its purpose was to establish a regional presence that is close to our customers, as well as providing a collaborative center for our clients, Fluor subject matter experts, and local subcontracting partners.

Strategically, our vision for this office was to be fit for purpose and able to service the advanced technology and life sciences markets. Today, the local team supports key clients such as Fujifilm, Eli Lilly, and Novo Nordisk in the biopharma space, and advanced technology clients like Intel, Northvolt, and Microsoft. This hub is a great example of our global operations in action within this growing market and a significant supporter of results in the Urban Solutions segment. We're looking forward to continuing traction in these markets as a result of our strategic decisions. Now, let's turn to our operating review, beginning on slide four. Revenue for the first quarter was $3.7 billion. Consolidated new awards for the first quarter were strong at $7 billion, led by key awards in our advanced technologies and life sciences business line.

Our book-to-burn ratio for the quarter was 1.9%. New awards were 97% reimbursable, and our total backlog is now $32.7 billion, of which 80% is reimbursable. Our margins on new awards continues to reflect strong demand for our services. Specific to the margin profile, new award margins continue to outpace margin on existing backlog by an average of over 150 basis points for the past five quarters. We continue to invest in our people and systems as execution excellence and positioning for future work remains a top priority for Fluor. Our pipeline of current and prospective feeds and studies through the end of 2025 represents a total installed cost of 14 times the size of our current backlog.

This pipeline is being led by opportunities in life sciences, semiconductors, data centers, energy transition, as well as key prospects in Mining & Metals. Moving to our business segments, please turn to slide six. Urban Solutions, our largest and most diverse segment, reported a $50 million profit in the first quarter. Results in this segment reflect the strong ramp-up of execution activities on several recently awarded projects, including two life sciences projects, a green steel project, and two semiconductor projects. New awards for the quarter were $4.9 billion, compared to $1.8 billion a year ago. Pending backlog is substantial and now stands at $18.6 billion, 78% of which is reimbursable. Now, please just turn to slide seven. In Mining & Metals, our client, Gold Fields, achieved first gold at the Salares Norte project in Chile.

This location, at altitudes between 13,000 feet and 15,000 feet, was extremely challenging and demanded an extraordinary level of modularization never seen before on a project in the Andes. Speaking of Chile, the Fluor joint venture received full notice to proceed for the expansion of Antofagasta's Centinela copper-gold mining operation in Sierra Gorda. When completed, this project is estimated to produce 144,000 metric tons of copper, 130,000 ounces of gold, and 3,500 metric tons of molybdenum. We recognized approximately $740 million for our portion of this award in the first quarter. This strong start in Mining & Metals is anticipated to continue over the next three quarters, with nearly $4 billion in prospects across aluminum, rare earth refining, port debottlenecking, and a lithium project in the United States for Ioneer....

We're particularly encouraged with the progress on this last prospect, as Ioneer has stated that the Bureau of Land Management has completed its draft review of the environmental impact study. Moving to slide eight. Advanced Technologies and Life Sciences had another very strong quarter and continues to invest in people and support infrastructure to meet demand. New awards for the quarter included a $3.2 billion EPCM award for full notice to proceed on the Eli Lilly manufacturing facility in Indiana that broke ground in 2023. Over the past two months, we're seeing the CHIPS Act beginning to kickstart semiconductor investment in the United States, including two government grants that we are currently working on in a limited capacity. We expect this will support not only current positioning work, but more significant awards later this year and into 2025.

On a parallel track, clients are orienting their CapEx plans toward data centers to support AI. While it is still early days, we are well positioned to support our clients in this space. Looking ahead, we see data center investments gaining momentum in the U.S. Midwest, the European Union, and Asia. In infrastructure, productivity remains strong on the Gordie Howe project. This project is now 74% complete, and we are on track for bridge connection mid-year, with handover of both ports of entry later this year. On the Automated People Mover project in Los Angeles, it is now 84% complete. Our joint venture continues to work collaboratively with the client for cost recovery, entitlements, and alignment of schedule to match their timeline. Our last legacy infrastructure project, 635 LBJ, continues to progress and is currently 63% complete.

Finally, Plant and Facility Services secured nearly $700 million in new work, including a seven-year contract extension with SunCoke and a five-year renewal supporting the maintenance and sustaining capital project work for a power generation company we've worked with for the past 40 years. Moving on to slide nine. Mission Solutions reported a segment profit of $22 million for the first quarter, compared to $7 million a year ago. New awards increased during the quarter to $1.1 billion, and includes the Air Force Contract Augmentation Program V, that has a five-year period of performance valued at approximately $409 million. On this project, we will be providing construction and transportation support for Tinian Airfield. It is located in an area closely aligned with the nation's national defense strategy for the Indo-Pacific region.

Also, during the quarter, we received extension notices for a number of projects we are currently executing, including Paducah, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and Portsmouth. Ending backlog for the quarter was $4.4 billion. It's important to note that the earnings potential for this segment is not fully represented by total backlog. Current and future earnings for this segment also include contributions from projects accounted for under the equity method of accounting. This is reflected in our margin guidance for Mission Solutions. Looking ahead, prospects include additional task order awards for missions in the national security space, as well as incremental assignments under the LOGCAP program. Also note that we expect to hear a decision on the Pantex award by mid-year. Moving to Energy Solutions, please turn to slide 10. Segment profit decreased to $68 million from $88 million a year ago.

Results for the quarter reflect $29 million in cost growth for delays, craft labor, and material escalation on a construction-only subcontract for a non-Pemex client being executed by our joint venture entity in Mexico. Fluor's portion of this unit rate subcontract is approximately $200 million. These cost increases were recognized in the first quarter. However, the joint venture is working with the client to establish commercial resolution to project impacts. New awards for the quarter totaled $716 million and included an EPCM award for refinery work at Johnson Matthey's Royston site in the UK. This was a reimbursable sole source award that rolled over from the initial feed package. Also, we recently received a pre-feed award from a confidential client for a mega integrated refinery and petrochemical complex in the Middle East. On LNG Canada, progress is in excess of 90%.

With over 5,000 people on site, the project is in full systems completion mode, with a focus on testing and commissioning activities for LNG Canada. We expect to be ready for safe startup in the second half of 2024. Moving to Shell Penguins, Fluor is currently handing over systems on this legacy offshore platform and will complete the remaining commissioning activities later this month. For the remainder of 2024, this segment is pursuing energy transition projects across a number of end markets, including battery manufacturing, renewable fuels, reimbursable offshore LNG, and traditional refining. Regarding the Liquid to Chemicals project in Saudi Arabia that we've discussed over the past few quarters, the client has decided to put this program on hold as they reevaluate the best approach to development.

The collaboration agreement we have with this client remains in place, and we continue to ramp up in-Kingdom for a variety of activities. Finally, with respect to NuScale, we continue to make progress with our strategic investor on the monetization of NuScale shares held by Fluor. With the ever-increasing demand for carbon-free power, which more recently includes the build-out of high energy-consuming AI data centers and semiconductor facilities globally, investor and power offtake interest based on the commercialization of NuScale's industry-leading SMR technology has never been greater.

We will continue to provide updates on this front in the coming quarters of 2024. Based on Fluor's performance over the past two years, it's clear that the significant demand for our services across the portfolio allows us to protect our margin corridor of 4%-6% and provide strong support for our full-year guidance expectations. With that, let me turn the call over to Joe for the financial update. Joe?

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Yeah, thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will review our results for the first quarter and go over financial outlook assumptions that support our guidance. Please turn to slide 12. As David mentioned, for the first quarter of 2024, revenue was $3.7 billion. Our consolidated segment profit for the quarter was $118 million. Results reflect the normal seasonality we see for the quarter and the $29 million charge David previously discussed. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $88 million, compared to $71 million a year ago. Our adjusted EPS was $0.47, compared to $0.28 in Q1 of 2023. Results for the quarter do not affect our expectations for full-year guidance. Our adjusted results for the quarter exclude $7 million for the positive income effects of FX and the embedded derivative in Mexico.

G&A expenses for the quarter were $59 million, down from $62 million a year ago. Net interest income in the quarter was $39 million, compared to $49 million last quarter, and $41 million a year ago. Based on comments from the Fed, we are anticipating the net interest income run rate for the rest of 2024 will remain in this range. New awards of $7 billion in the quarter improved our ending backlog balance to $32.7 billion, which is now 80% reimbursable. Based on our prospect pipeline, we anticipate a book-to-burn ratio equal to or in excess of 1 for the third straight year. Moving to slide 13. Our cash and marketable securities balance for the quarter was $2.3 billion. This excludes amounts held by NuScale.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was an outflow of $111 million, compared to an outflow of $161 million a year ago, and reflects increases in working capital needs for reimbursable projects, the usual timing of annual incentive payments, and $55 million in funding for legacy projects. During Q1, we completed the sale of Stork European operations to Bilfinger. We also entered into an agreement to sell Stork UK operations and expect to close this transaction as early as the second quarter. This is a significant milestone as it represents the final planned divestiture of our non-core businesses. Please turn to slide 14. We are affirming our 2024 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $2.50-$3.00, and our adjusted EBITDA guidance of $600 million-$700 million.

Our expectations for operating cash flow are between $450 million and $600 million. This excludes up to $150 million in funding for legacy projects. Our assumptions for 2024 include revenue growth of approximately 15%, G&A expense of approximately $190 million, and an effective tax rate of approximately 35%. Our expectations for 2024 full-year segment margins are approximately 5% in Energy Solutions, approximately 4% in Urban Solutions, and approximately 6% in Mission Solutions. Operator, we are now ready for our first question.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. To allow for as many questions as possible, we please ask that you restrict yourself to one question and one follow-up. You may queue up again for further follow-up questions, time permitting. Thank you. If you are called upon to ask your question and are listening via loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset to ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Your first question comes from the line of James Cook of Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Jamie Cook (Managing Director in Equity Research)

Well, close. It's Jamie Cook, but, hi.

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Hey, Jamie. Good morning.

Jamie Cook (Managing Director in Equity Research)

I haven't gotten that one before. I guess just two questions, Joe. It looks like you increased your free cash flow guide. I think you're saying $450... or sorry, your operating cash flow guide, $450 million-$600 million, versus before I think you were $350 million-$450 million, which is nice to see-

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Yeah

Jamie Cook (Managing Director in Equity Research)

... because it's now more approximating EBITDA. So what were the drivers behind that, and given the stronger cash flow generation, how are you thinking about capital allocation in the back half of the year? And then just my second question is just the ramp to get to your EBITDA guide, the $600 million-$700 million. I think the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $88 million. So how do we think about that ramp given, you know, sort of probably a you know, weaker first quarter? So yeah, I guess those are my two questions. Thanks.

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Okay. Yeah, good morning. Thanks, Jamie. From a cash perspective, we are, we've got included in our guidance, some of the activity, and the repatriation, the dividends, obviously, from LNG Canada. But what we're really seeing is kind of an underlying, a bit more clarity relative to the trajectory of our margins as we push into an 80% reimbursable model. So we're getting a lot more clarity in terms of how that cash flow is gonna flow into our cash flow statements for the year. And we just feel, as though, with the early onboarding of some of the activities in Urban Solutions, that the business will start to generate a better cash flow profile.

I think that's where we're just kind of leaning into that confidence and having better transparency into how that cash is gonna turn into free operating cash flow for us. On the capital allocation, nothing's changed, Jamie. We are going to be communicating with you relative to our stated goals around returning shareholder capital. We'll do that as we get out into the latter half of the year. From a ramp perspective, I think we've progressed a bit quicker than even we had anticipated in getting up to the 80% reimbursable.

That ramp is really—that backlog is really gonna start being the headline story as we move forward. So I would expect—in an 80% reimbursable model, what we're looking at, Jamie, is a nice, less volatile ramp as we, kinda get to the end of the year. So I would expect to see a nice, a little bit more linear ramp as we get from Q2 into Q4.

Jamie Cook (Managing Director in Equity Research)

Okay, great. Thanks.

Joe Brennan (CFO)

If you want support on the guidance.

Operator (participant)

My apologies for that, Jamie. Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher of UBS. Your line is open.

Steven Fisher (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, good morning. You mentioned that the JV is working on a commercial resolution in Mexico. Well, what's the degree of risk of further charges there on that project? I know you mentioned that's sort of a non-Pemex project, but, you know, I feel like more broadly in Mexico as a, you know, a place to do business for you, it's had its ups and downs. So, you know, and given that those ups and downs kinda continue here, how do you think about the risk reward of continuing to work in Mexico?

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Well, thanks for the question, it's David. So we said it, you know, ICA Fluor is probably, as you look historically across the company, ICA Fluor is, I would say, our best joint venture, from a performance standpoint, that we've, that we've had in the company. Really strong performance financially here, certainly since I've returned. Great work with Pemex on their refinery system. In fact, Dos Bocas is now mechanically complete, and we're supporting startup, you know, as we speak. So continue to do really great work with Pemex. And, this particular project... So, I'm, you know, bullish on, on Mexico and ICA Fluor and, the work they do down there. This particular project, as you heard, was a very small project. It's a subcontract, actually, a unit rate, contract on, the direct costs.

A couple hundred million dollars, construction only, and for, like you heard, a commercial client that we're working with in location is Ensenada in Baja California, which is a challenging location, a volatile geographic location, and a very unique situation with border control issues and therefore craft labor instability. So, you know, we've been negotiating a cost increase and schedule extension over the past, you know, six months. However, in Q1, it became apparent that the labor market due to that unique location, the labor market had degraded to the point where, you know, the initial negotiation is not sufficient.

So the joint venture and Fluor and ICA are currently addressing, you know, these challenges with the clients and, you know, cost increases had to be obviously taken up in the first quarter, but as we've done with many of our legacy projects, revenue recovery to claims perfection is where we're focused on this small subcontract right now.

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Yeah, maybe the only thing I would add is just to provide a little bit more color around labor challenges that we see in the region. With its proximity to the border and some of the other activities that happen up in the northern region of Baja, and we've got a lot of experience doing work in that region, but it's just been exacerbated coming out of the holidays. And again, with its proximity to the border, the attraction and retention of craft resources has become increasingly more challenging and more difficult. And it is a, a, a set of challenges that we really don't have on any of our other projects in our portfolio. It's really unique to this project, but as David said, we're working through those challenges with the client to get the best commercial settlement and resolution.

Steven Fisher (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Remind me, when was that project booked?

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

2021. Yeah, August of 2021.

Steven Fisher (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And so just my follow-up is, you know, the sort of idea of-

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

It's scheduled for completion in February 2025.

Steven Fisher (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. That's helpful. And I guess just, you know, the concept of, you know, clean quarters with, with higher margins and consistency, you know, still seems like the, the vision here, and there's a lot of pieces of that being put in place, but it's just not quite there yet. So, you know, we know this is a long cycle business. It takes time to work through some older projects. So what, what kind of confidence can we have in the timing of achieving those consistent quarters and delivering those, you know, those nicely higher margins that you're putting into backlog on a consistent basis now?

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Yeah, no, thanks for the question. I guess I'd, I'd look through it through the lens of the progress that we're making on our reimbursable portfolio and where we are in terms of where we said we would be by the end of this year at 75%, being up in the 80% range, booking a $7 billion award quarter in Q1 at 90%+ reimbursable. I think that's giving us comfort that as we get a better balance of the risk profile within the P&L, that will start to eliminate some of that volatility moving forward.

And I think all of those factors and proven by not only the bookings, but the opportunities that we see in front of us remain very heavily weighted towards the reimbursable side of the ledger. So I think that will help us get some of that volatility that continues. And certainly having more linear discussions relative to revenue and even adopt profiles moving forward.

Steven Fisher (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Andy Whitman of Baird. Your line is open.

Andy Wittmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions, guys. I wanted to have you drill in a little bit more on your Mission Solutions joint ventures. David, you mentioned them in your script, said the fact that, you know, these aren't showing up in the backlog, but they're factored into your, your margin guidance. And, you know, obviously, the Mission segment margins guidance here is, is much higher than you posted in the quarter, and frankly, much higher than we've seen in a while. So it's clearly having a discernible impact. Given that, I thought it would be helpful for you to talk about the status or which contracts in particular, if you can, are contributing to that margin outlook, and if they've already begun.

Certainly in the quarter, you talked in the press release about your role at Hanford. There was another one that you had at Arnold Engineering Center. I believe that's a fairly decent sized one. Maybe if you could just talk, Joe, talk about the projects that are contributing there, and if there's any protests or things that have to be worked through before you're able to recognize those as profit?

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Andy, well, maybe I'll talk a little bit about what's going down, going on down below the line in the NCI. On an unrecognized proportional basis, you know, we have approximately $2 billion worth of revenue that's not being reflected in the overall backlog for Mission Solutions. So I think that's obviously a big chunk and a big reason for the increased margin guidance. And Pantex itself will also be another consolidating opportunity for us of a very significant nature in the $30 billion range.

So we're working on how we'll communicate a little bit better because of the size of some of the opportunities that are gonna flow in there below and above the line. We'll work on providing you some better guidance around what that margin means relative to Mission Solutions as we progress out into Q2 and Q3. Those are kind of the underlying reasons that you're seeing that margin guide push up to the 6%.

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, there's a lot of good things going on in Mission Solutions, Andy. We've had recent awards from FEMA, you know, $525 million over five years. We've got the Hanford Tank, Hanford Tanks contract, $45 billion over 15 years. Looking at Longview Fusion out further out in time, which is very interesting, you know, the technology that we're right in the forefront of, with the award there with Longview. We're waiting for announcements from the National Cancer Institute, Pantex, Joe mentioned. We've got enrichment bids out there for nuclear fuel. There's three bids outstanding right now. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is gonna, we think, come in again as an extension. So lots going on in the nuclear and environmental space.

And then on the national security side, including defense and intelligence, you know, you've got all that AFCAP work. I mentioned the Tinian Island program as well, the Test Operations and Sustainment program for the Air Force. You know, so... And then a lot of work in the intelligence space, with right now, six outstanding award announcements that we're waiting on, so, and many bids in process. So a lot going on right now. Very busy time in Mission Solutions, especially as they support national security right now.

Andy Wittmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Joe, was there anything to read into your comment there? You just brought up Pantex as something that, you know, could have a significant thing. Is there any updates that you have beyond just expect to hear something this summer? And this is a contract that you guys won and then, you know, coming back with, they're reissuing the RFP, and you're coming back at it. But is there any update that you can provide on that one?

Joe Brennan (CFO)

We've submitted the proposal and it's under review with the government. It's expected that we would hear something within the next month or so. But we're kind of being held a bit hostage relative to when the government wants to announce the release. But we would expect it within the next two to four weeks, at least that's early warning signals at this point.

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. That's,

Andy Wittmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Last one for me, just-

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

It could be later, too, right? And you know, it's they'll wanna make the award before the election, put it that way. And so, you know, they usually take up to a year to award those types of contracts, and we'll be coming up on a year in September. And obviously, there's a good chance it'll be protested, so yeah, more to come on Pantex.

Andy Wittmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah. Okay, just last one for me, just on NuScale here. I was just wondering what kind of you guys are thinking is a realistic outcome. Obviously, you've been talking about this one for some time. There's been various kind of milestones that have kind of come and gone, and obviously, the story over at NuScale fluctuated as well. So I just kind of wanna get your thoughts for a realistic outcome in terms of process and/or timing.

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. So it's very exciting times right now, right? Especially with the demand, as I mentioned in the remarks. You know, investor and power offtake interest in the carbon-free NuScale technology, I don't think it's ever been greater as I've been following it, right? And you know, just if you follow, obviously, the comments that I made on data centers, you know, the need for data centers obviously rapidly increased, even more so with artificial intelligence. I think, you know, in the U.S. market alone, power consumption to reflect the number of servers that are expected, you know, they're gonna need 35,000 megawatts, right? Versus, I think we're at 17,000 megawatts right now by 2030.

So, it's a massive requirement on clean power, and I can tell you that, there's significant and detailed discussions ongoing with those types of clients looking to NuScale to solve those challenges. So the demand is there. We have exclusivity with our strategic investor ongoing. It's a very complex deal, I'll say that, but with a lot of moving parts. But I'd say that it's also a, you know, it, it's industry-leading when it comes to the path the strategic investor is taking from a development standpoint globally for NuScale. So a very, you know, I'm very sup- you know, supportive of the business model that the strategic investor has come up with.

We have, you know, three overarching objectives that we need on our side, to ensure success, and that is, first of all, you know, ensure the successful commercialization of the NuScale technology, number one. Number two, drive maximum value for Fluor shareholders through the monetization of our, NuScale shares. And thirdly, and importantly, ensure Fluor's engineering, construction, and project management services are participating globally on NuScale projects where we can add value. So all that is part of the path forward. And, so yeah, it continues to move forward, and like I said, with that investor and power off-take interest, you know, things will, I think, move forward positively. Timeline-wise, like I said, we'll continue to update you through the year, and hopefully see something, you know, later in 2024 that we can be really excited about, for ourselves and our shareholders.

Andy Wittmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Dudas of Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Michael Dudas (Partner and Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, Jason, Joe, David.

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Hey. Hello, Mike, Mike.

Michael Dudas (Partner and Equity Research Analyst)

David, maybe follow up on your, you know, with your NuScale answer on data center. So remind us how Fluor's positioned in that market. Is there comparisons on Fluor's positioning on the construction relative to, say, the semiconductor cycle a couple of years ago? And, you know, is it—and it seems early stage, but is there a lot of, a lot of red tape, regulatory, maybe power, you know, consumption demand is enormous, but that's got to be parsed out. So maybe you could share a little bit about how that timing and how Fluor gets involved, and again, can that be visible to, to the backlog over the next 12-18 months?

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, good morning, Mike. So, yeah, semiconductor work is ongoing and growing, as you know, and we're in the middle of that market. Data centers, I'd say it is a very similar model, right, that we're looking at to support build-out of data centers in the U.S. and globally. For example, our build-out of data centers for Microsoft in India is one example, internationally. But we expect to also, you know, bring that experience to bear in the U.S. as these data centers start to come out to bid.

And so I would say they'll be increasing the backlog in HELS going forward. So, and we're, you know, we're well-positioned to support those clients in that space, and we know, you know, you know who the big players are for data centers. So, we're right in the thick of it right now in positioning. So, yeah, that's, that's, that's what we've got on that.

Michael Dudas (Partner and Equity Research Analyst)

I appreciate that. And then maybe on the follow-up, you know, given what you just mentioned there and the activity and all the manufacturing reshoring, like in your life science and the bookings you've had, give me a sense of capacity and competition. Are clients starting to get more concerned about the ability to bring on the talent that's required from a vendor and from a contractor space, and how do you think that's gonna reflect in your ability to better, you know, continue these margin improvements? I guess that's a part of why the margins are moving up and getting better T&Cs.

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, most definitely. You know, certainly in that market space, you know, you can consider it a seller's market, not only in the EPC space, but in the vendor space as well. Some clients are just deciding to sign up agreements to make sure they get their arms around, you know, A-teams and engineering talent so that they have, you know, blocked out their competition. So it's a capacity challenge. We've been able to. You know, we started our talent task force a couple of years ago as our backlog started to grow. You know, we started booking this $20 billion-dollar years a couple of years ago. And the talent task force has really done a great job.

We've been hiring 5,000 people a year for the past couple of years. We only have 1,400 open requisitions right now that are not required immediately, so we've got time for those 1,400, but that's where we stand. And so we've luckily got a jump on that. We also are redeploying. Right now, if you look at the backlog, what is it? Almost $19 billion in ATLS and, you know, circa $10 billion in Energy Solutions. And we've got people in Energy Solutions that are easily redeployable and can cross-pollinate into those big ATLS. You know, ATLS now has mega projects, which in the past used to be, you know, $500 million used to be a large project over there.

So bringing over project management, project execution skills from elsewhere in the company is really what we're focusing on to make sure we can execute, and that's going really well. So in fact, the leader of ATLS, Richard Meserole, ran the big $46 billion TCO project, and so he's understands what large projects require, and that's how we're, you know, going after all that ATLS work. But yeah, it's... You know, vendors are also taking advantage. We're seeing price increases and longer scheduled deliveries, and so we've got to be very careful on that front and make sure the estimates and are realistic for our clients as well. So thanks, Mike.

Michael Dudas (Partner and Equity Research Analyst)

Excellent, David. Thank you.

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Sangita Jain of KeyBanc. Your line is open.

Alex Markgraff (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, this is Alex on for Sangita. Thanks for taking our questions. I just have one. Can you talk about your success in winning bids this quarter? Last quarter, you had mentioned you won 78% of all pursuits last year. So, I'm wondering if the strong backlog this quarter is more a function of a continued higher win rate, or is it just more demand and more awards coming to market?

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, we track our win rate. I didn't see it this quarter. I look at it on an annual basis, and like you said, we were, what? 78% hit rate in 2023. You know, I would expect that to continue. That's a pretty high number. I think historically, we're in the 50%-70% range. So I think our selectivity is, you know, our pursuit criteria and our selectivity screens on our prospects is, you know, allowing us to have a very high win rate. You know, we're only going after prospects that we can deliver on and we have A teams for.

So for the most part, and as we just talked about, with Mike, you know, a bit of a seller's market out there in most of our markets, many of our markets, which allows us to be more selective. And, you know, when I do look at the small amount of losses that we have each quarter, you know, the vast majority of our losses are lost on price, and we'd love to lose on price, right?

So, we want to get paid, you know, through our strategic priority, fair and balanced contract terms, and, you know, that means getting paid, having a fair contract, fair risk profile, and getting paid for the value we provide. So, yeah, if we're gonna lose, that's how to lose it. We just, you know, we need to deploy our key resources on prospects where the margins are starting to grow, and so we'll continue to push on that. Thanks.

Alex Markgraff (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Natalia Bak of Citibank. Your line is open.

Natalia Bak (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Hi, good morning. This is Natalia Bach on behalf of Andy Kaplowitz. You mentioned you expect the book-to-burn in excess of one for the year, as well as an 80% reimbursable backlog. You're expecting more linear ramp-up as you get from 2Q to 4Q. So maybe you could talk about the cadence of bookings across the segments, and is that linear ramp-up something you expect across all the segments?

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Can you read that? I'm sorry. The last couple of calls' questions have been very difficult to hear. I'm not sure if you could get a little closer to the mic or help us with that question one more time. Thanks.

Natalia Bak (Equity Research Senior Associate)

No, it's all good. So you mentioned you expect a book-to-burn in excess of 1 for the year, as well as with an 80% reimbursable backlog. You're expecting more linear ramp-up as you get from 2Q to 4Q. So maybe you could talk about the cadence of bookings across all the segments, and is that linear ramp-up something you expect for all across the segments?

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Well, maybe I'll start, Natalia, with from the earnings side. Yes, we see strength across all three of our segments in terms of, kind of that supporting that linear growth model across the balance of the year. So, and I think that's supported by not only the new awards that we put in this quarter but the $7 billion that we booked in Q4 as well, have really kind of kick-started the trajectory for the year. That gives us confidence in terms of what that margin profile is going to look like over the next three quarters. On the new award cadence, I don't know, David, if you want to-

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I'd agree with you. I mean, I would expect that 80% reimbursable to be there or higher by the end of the year based on what we're seeing, right? We've just had very few, you know, of the current $35 billion we're chasing in the next four quarters. I think there's just a couple of lump sum prospects in there. So the reimbursable prospects, the projects will continue to go up in backlog, and we expect a higher margin profile to continue. Obviously, HLS, we've talked about it a lot today, as far as cadence across the segments and the businesses. You know, HLS remains very promising with, you know, significant opportunities in data centers and chips and pharma, but also in Mining & Metals.

They're in a very good place right now. We have key chemical projects out there, and then energy transition markets across all of the entire portfolio continues to be very strong. So we're going to see awards coming in across Urban Solutions, Energy Solutions, supplemented by recompete awards or, extension awards in Mission Solutions.

Natalia Bak (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. Just one more question from me. If you could just give us a little more color on what you're seeing in terms of demand by region, and how do you think about geopolitical risk? Do you see Middle East as a good source of bookings in 2024, or are prospects more weighted towards Americas?

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, we've been booking a lot of work internationally, recently. You know, geopolitical—you know, our clients, our major clients, not the developers, but our, you know, our key clients, you know, for the most part, tend to look through short-term economic and geopolitical challenges, right? Which... And they're operating as multinationals globally. So if they didn't, you know, we would not have $32.7 billion in backlog, right? With all the challenges out there and the uncertainty. So, their CapEx plans, and their capital allocation and business model, returns, you know, they're able to play the long game. So we're not seeing any reduction or challenge with our clients' CapEx plans due to geopolitical risk. Certainly, they are diversifying out of certain regions and countries.

For example, you know, the whole China Plus One de-risking scenario that we're all, in the middle of right now and supporting. But yeah, our top dozen customers, you know, they spend between $160 billion-$165 billion in CapEx. These are our commercial customers. $160 billion-$165 billion in 2023. Their 2024 CapEx is $155 billion-$165 billion, so up, up, up slightly. And, and beyond 2024, it's $165 billion-$180 billion. So their CapEx continues to, to, stay, at least flat, but for the most part, is actually increasing. When you look at our, again, our primary... That's just the top 12 customers, that we're looking at. And then, obviously, you've got...

That doesn't include our government budget, right? Requests for the U.S. Army is, you know, about $186 billion this year for the Army. Department of Energy is $52 billion, and FEMA is going to probably spend $26 billion. TxDOT here in Texas, where we do a lot of infrastructure work, is up as well. All those numbers are up. The TxDOT's up to $16 billion this year. So, yeah, that's how I look at it. I see the market still continue to be very strong and, you know, we'll continue to build backlog.

Joe Brennan (CFO)

If I could add, I think we've seen significant traction on bookings in the United States, which is quite helpful. If you've been following the story, we have not been profitable in the US for a number of reasons over the past five, six years, relative to some performance prior to David and I arriving, and that has put us in a loss position in the US, which has created some tax friction. We're starting to see a very clean pathway to getting back to profitable in the United States, which will have some other kind of tag-along benefits related to our effective tax rates and our use of value VAs sitting on our balance sheet. That's a long-winded way of saying, yeah, we're starting to see some traction and growth in our backlog here in the United States.

Natalia Bak (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Thanks, Natalia.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Michael Feniger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking my question, squeezing me in. Just when we think of the operating cash flow guidance, obviously, this year started a use of $110 million, better than what it was a year ago. Just to get to that positive full year guide, I know there's a level seasonality. Just any guardrails you can kind of give us as we kind of prepare for Q2 and Q3? Is the bulk of that cash from ops, is that mostly Q4? Does it kind of inflect, you know, as we go into Q2? Just try to give us some guardrails on preparing how that cadence plays out through the year.

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Yeah, I think you'll see the more significant ramp, Mike, on towards the back end of the year. There will be some lumpiness as it relates during the year in Q2 and Q3, but with the majority of that a little bit more back-end loaded related to some of the dividends that we're looking to repatriate in the middle part of 2024. So it's-- it'll reasonably kind of flat between Q2 and Q3, and I think you'll see an uptick as we get closer to the end of the year.

Michael Feniger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Great. And just my follow-up on the $150 million of legacy funding, you know, I believe that hasn't changed. Just any guideposts of how that could potentially move better or worse through the year? Any, any catalyst that we should kind of keep our eyes out for as we kind of progress through the year? And just that 150, just directionally, you know, how does that kind of look as we, we enter 2025 and some of these projects start to, to wind down or, or come close to completion? Thank you.

Joe Brennan (CFO)

Yeah. Let me talk about heading into 2025. I think we'll have de minimis amounts of funding requirements on legacy projects in 2025. I think the bulk of what we're trying to achieve relative to the completion of those projects will kind of come to fruition in 2024. And on the legacy funding of the projects, that's the starting point. And if you look at historically, what we've been able to do over the last couple of years, is that signpost at the beginning of the year relative to cash flow requirements on legacy projects, we've been able to significantly reduce that number, and our expectation is that $150 million will be driven down to its lowest common denominator here for the year. And we feel comfortable based on, historically, how we've been able to achieve that.

Operator (participant)

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to David Constable, Chairman and CEO, for closing remarks.

David Constable (Chairman and CEO)

Great. Thank you, operator. Many thanks to all of you for participating on our call today. You know, given our performance over the last three years and our strong position in the marketplace, we expect to continue to generate substantial value for our shareholders, in the future. Appreciate your interest in Fluor, and thank you again for your time today.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.