FC
FLUOR CORP (FLR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 revenue was $4.26B, up from $3.82B in Q4 2023; GAAP diluted EPS was $10.57 boosted by $2.105B equity method earnings from NuScale deconsolidation, while adjusted EPS was $0.48; consolidated segment profit rose to $206M .
- Full-year operating cash flow reached $828M (best since 2015), cash and equivalents ended at $2.83B, and the company repurchased $125M of shares in Q4 with $300M planned for 2025 .
- 2025 guidance introduced: adjusted EBITDA $575–$675M, adjusted EPS $2.25–$2.75, tax rate 30–35%; management indicated $450–$500M operating cash flow and Energy Solutions margins of 3.5–4.5% for 2025, with back-half weighting as ES “reloads” and Urban ramps .
- Strategic/catalyst updates: LNG Canada >95% complete and on track for first cargo mid-2025 despite insulation challenges; master agreement signed with a major data center client; CEO transition to Jim Breuer effective May 1, 2025; NuScale monetization discussions ongoing .
- Street consensus (SPGI) for Q4 2024 EPS/revenue was unavailable at the time of writing due to data limits; estimate comparisons will be updated when accessible.*
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Urban Solutions revenue ramp and backlog growth: Q4 Urban revenue $1.999B vs $1.420B YoY; FY Urban profit $304M and ending backlog $17.7B (+20% YoY), reflecting life sciences, mining & metals project ramps .
- Cash generation and capital return: FY operating cash flow $828M, cash/marketable securities $3.0B (+14% YoY); Q4 share repurchases $125M with $300M targeted for 2025 .
- Management positioning for growth: “Data centers will be a significant engine for our growth,” with a new master agreement and early-stage projects; portfolio majority reimbursable supports risk-adjusted returns .
What Went Wrong
- New awards slowed: Q4 new awards $2.308B vs $7.608B prior year; FY new awards $15.1B vs $19.5B prior year, driving backlog decline to $28.5B from $29.4B .
- Energy Solutions headwinds: 2024 ES profit down ($256M vs $381M) due to schedule challenges/reduced productivity on a large late-stage project; ES backlog fell to $7.6B (from $9.7B) .
- Legacy/legal provision: $116M provision tied to an old infrastructure JV verdict; management is pursuing options to eliminate most or all of the provision .
Financial Results
Segment breakdown (Q4 vs prior year):
KPIs and backlog/new awards trajectory:
Non-GAAP adjustments: Q4 adjusted EPS removes equity method earnings from NuScale, FX, ICA Fluor embedded derivative impacts, and certain G&A items; adjusted EPS was $0.48 vs GAAP EPS $10.57 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are establishing adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 of $575 to $675 million and adjusted EPS of $2.25 to $2.75 per share. Estimates for 2025 assume a tax rate of 30 to 35%” .
- “Data centers will be a significant engine for our growth… we signed a master agreement with a major data center company… colocation between $0.5–$1B; hyperscalers multiple billions” .
- “We are on track to support the client’s target to ship first cargoes by middle of 2025” (LNG Canada) .
- “Book-to-bill [is] significantly above 1 in 2025” .
- “Our portfolio is majority reimbursable… focus on proper returns on a risk‑adjusted basis” .
- CEO transition: “It is now the right time for me to transition into the role of Executive Chairman and pass the CEO role on to Jim Breuer” .
Q&A Highlights
- Energy Solutions margins/back-half weighting: Early-year absorption friction as ES resources pivot to Urban Solutions; margins expected to normalize as 2025 progresses .
- LNG Canada cost/milestones: Insulation challenge mitigated by added labor; Train 1 commissioning progressing; first cargo mid-2025 on track; project tracking to management expectations .
- Operating cash flow guidance and drivers: $450–$500M OCF for 2025 absorbs ~$200M legacy funding; offsets include JV distributions (principally Canada) .
- NuScale monetization timing: Detailed negotiations ongoing for long-term monetization/revenue stream; SMR demand strong; patience required in nuclear commercialization .
- Data center cycle: Early innings; programmatic relationships; Fluor’s power generation capability (thermal/nuclear) a differentiator to meet massive U.S. power demand for data centers .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to API limits at the time of this report; as such, beat/miss vs Street cannot be assessed and will be updated when accessible.*
- Given management’s 2025 guidance and commentary (back-end loaded year, ES margin friction early, Urban ramp), near-term estimate adjustments may tilt toward lower 1H25 EPS with stronger 2H25 cadence; OCF guide $450–$500M and $300M buybacks provide support to capital return narratives .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Adjusted results matter: Q4 GAAP EPS was inflated by NuScale accounting; focus on adjusted EPS ($0.48) and adjusted EBITDA ($154M) to gauge core performance .
- Urban Strength vs ES Transition: Urban Solutions continues to drive growth (life sciences, mining, data centers) while ES reloads with FEED and targets power/nuclear; expect back-half weighted 2025 .
- Cash/Capital Return: Strong cash generation and JV distributions underpin $300M 2025 buybacks; watch April 2 strategy update for further capital allocation detail .
- LNG Canada nearing inflection: Commissioning milestones and mid-2025 cargo timing remain on track; final commercial resolution could be a catalyst .
- Data center optionality: New master agreement and integrated power capabilities position Fluor for hyperscale opportunities; monitor booking conversion and power-supply deals .
- Leadership transition: CEO handoff to Jim Breuer (May 1) and CFO succession to John Regan signal continuity with a “grow and execute” focus—expect emphasis on project delivery and margin discipline .
- Legal/legacy watch: The $116M provision and legacy project funding ($~200M in 2025 plan) remain overhangs but are being actively managed; less P&L volatility expected going forward .
*S&P Global consensus data was unavailable at time of writing due to daily request limits.