Flowserve - Q2 2023
August 1, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and welcome to the Q2 2023 Flowserve Corporation Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to hand the call over to Jay Roueche, the Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Jay Roueche (VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer)
Thank you, Ali. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on our conference call today to discuss Flowserve's second quarter 2023 financial results. On the call with me today are Scott Rowe, Flowserve's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Amy Schwetz, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared comments, we will open the call for your questions. As a reminder, this event is being webcast and an audio replay will be available. Please note that our earnings materials do, and this call will, include non-GAAP measures and contain forward-looking statements. These statements are based upon forecasts, expectations, and other information available to management as of August 2, 2023, and may involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's control.
We encourage you to review our safe harbor disclosures, as well as the reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures to our reported results, both of which are included in our press release and earnings presentation and are accessible on our website in the Investor Resources section. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Scott Rowe, Flowserve's President and Chief Executive Officer, for his prepared comments.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Great. Thank you, Jay. Good morning, everyone. I couldn't be more pleased with the results that we delivered in the second quarter, including our adjusted earnings per share of $0.52. We continue to build on the operating momentum established at the end of last year. I believe we are now delivering much closer to our true capabilities. I want to start by thanking our associates for their commitment to our customers and to Flowserve. Without their persistence and dedication, we wouldn't be in such a good place. Our results for the second quarter were highlighted by the sixth consecutive quarter with bookings over $1 billion, our highest quarterly level of revenue since 2015, and our second consecutive quarter delivering adjusted gross margins above 30%.
Our improved operational execution, combined with our constructive market outlook, has led us to raise our full-year revenue and adjusted EPS targets. During the second quarter, we generated bookings of over $1.1 billion. This performance drove our first half book-to-bill a 1.05 and our backlog to near record levels, which reflects the success of our targeted 3D growth strategy and our customers' ongoing global focus on energy security and decarbonization. 3D awards increased roughly 9% versus the prior year to $325 million. This amount included discrete energy transition and new energy awards exceeding $50 million, which represented an increase of 24% compared to last year. Similar to the first quarter, we did not benefit from any large projects awarded in the second quarter. In fact, we only received one project over $20 million.
This quarter's bookings were driven primarily by aftermarket, MRO, and small project work, including numerous awards in the $5 million-$10 million range across all regions and end markets. Following our tenth consecutive quarter with a book-to-bill that exceeds 1.0, Flowserve's $2.8 billion backlog currently leaves us well-positioned to deliver revenue growth through 2024. Second quarter revenue grew 22.5% and approached $1.1 billion, driven by a better operating environment and significantly improved delivery performance. The process and operational improvements that we have made over the past year are now showing up in our financial results. From a profitability standpoint, we again delivered adjusted gross margins exceeding 30%. Gross margins improved year-over-year due to better price-cost management, further manufacturing absorption, and also from the avoidance of high frictional costs that we incurred throughout last year.
We also expanded our year-over-year adjusted operating margins for the third consecutive quarter due to our ability to execute on the backlog while remaining vigilant with our overall cost structure. With our improved operating performance and the constructive outlook in our markets, we are increasing our full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $1.85-$2.00. Turning to our bookings in more detail. Our strong performance this quarter was primarily driven by record aftermarket bookings of over $590 million, representing a 12% increase over the prior year. Original equipment bookings also increased by a modest 0.4% year-over-year, driven primarily by MRO and small project work, reflecting the previously mentioned absence of any large orders.
We continue to expect the overall environment for original equipment to remain supportive, as our project funnel over the next 12 months is up nearly 20% since the beginning of the year. Several years of underinvestment, coupled with the relatively high utilization rates at our customers' facilities, has served as the catalyst for the strength in our aftermarket and MRO business. This reasonably stable, recurring, and higher-margin type of work is further supported by operators looking to ensure the reliability and efficiency of their facilities, with a primary focus on reducing the likelihood of any unplanned downtime. At this time, we see no signs of our MRO or aftermarket business slowing down. Each of our core end markets delivered solid year-over-year growth, with the exception of chemical.
In general industries, bookings were up 20%, and oil and gas was up 12%, while power and water were both up in the 2%-3% range. Following 10 consecutive quarters of year-over-year constant currency bookings growth, our chemical bookings saw a year-over-year decline in the quarter of 11%, which was due to the challenging compare period, as last year's second quarter bookings were near all-time high levels. From a regional perspective, all of our reported regions were up year-over-year. We continue to expect that our end markets will remain constructive over the foreseeable future. Based on the current environment, we believe that we are likely in the early stages of a multi-year upcycle, supported by the combination of energy security and energy transition, which aligns perfectly with our 3D strategy.
We further expect aftermarket and MRO levels to remain elevated for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. As mentioned previously, our project funnel remains solid and represents significant opportunity for our traditional markets, particularly in the Middle East, as well as for decarbonization investments, including increased nuclear activity, LNG capacity additions, and carbon capture opportunities. Let me now turn the call over to Amy to address our second quarter financial results in greater detail.
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Scott, good morning, everyone. Looking at our financial results in greater detail, we are very pleased with our performance and with the continued execution improvements in both our segments during the period. In the second quarter, we delivered $0.52 of adjusted EPS on revenue of nearly $1.1 billion, which is our highest level of sales since 2015. The strong results we've produced in the first 6 months of 2023, coupled with the operating momentum we have demonstrated over the last several quarters, provide us confidence in our ability to execute on our sizable backlog to drive year-over-year revenue and earnings growth in the second half of the year, and also set us up well for 2024. On a reported basis, our earnings per share for the quarter was $0.39, primarily impacted by realignment and FX charges.
Velan acquisition costs and additional charges related to a previously reserved sales contract comprised the remainder. Together, these expenses resulted in a total of $0.13 of adjusted items. Our second quarter revenue increased over 22% year-over-year, with contributions virtually in all areas. Original equipment and aftermarket revenues increased roughly 26% and 20%, respectively, compared to the prior year. At the segment leg- level, FPD contributed original equipment and aftermarket growth of 34% and 20%, respectively, while FCD delivered both original equipment and aftermarket growth in the 18%-19% range.
From a regional perspective, revenues increased across the globe year-over-year, with notable strength in the Middle East and Africa region, as well as in Latin America, where sales were up 56% and 32%, respectively, while North America and Europe were up roughly 19%, Asia Pacific contributed 7% growth. Turning to margins, we delivered solid year-over-year improvement again this quarter. Adjusted gross margin increased 190 basis points to 30.3%. This increase was driven by the strong volume leverage produced by our operational execution, a greater contribution derived from our recent price increases, and an improving supply chain environment. The positive tailwinds were partially offset by the continued recognition of lingering lower-margin backlog that was booked in tough market conditions.
In addition, we are seeing the impact of increased compensation expense due to our annual merit increase and higher year-over-year performance-based expense accruals, reflecting our results this year compared to 2022. All in, we are very pleased to have delivered 30% plus gross margins in the first half of the year, which is a level we believe we can sustain for the back half of 2023 and look to grow from in the future. Going forward, our actions and initiatives are designed to maintain a high level of gross margin performance.
This includes increasing the margin profile of work coming into backlog, continuing to improve our execution on the shop floor, and implementing on our previously announced $50 million cost out program, which includes a comprehensive organizational redesign to improve accountability, speed, product focus, planning competencies, and our ability to address changes in the business outlook more quickly. On a reported basis, second quarter gross margins increased 160 basis points to 29.9%, where the improvements previously discussed were partially offset by a $4 million increase in adjusted items, primarily due to higher realignment charges versus prior year.
Second quarter SG&A increased $27 million to $219 million, primarily due to increased performance-based compensation accruals compared to last year, as well as a higher level of R&D investment to further expand our 3D product offerings, partially offset by a $4 million reduction of costs associated with a discrete legal matter. Most importantly, adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales decreased 150 basis points to 20.2%, as we successfully leveraged our higher revenue level and realized some of the early benefits from our 2023 cost out plan. Except for the occasional fourth quarter, this quarter's SG&A percentage is the lowest level we have delivered since 2015. As we grow revenues and maintain our cost focus, we would expect to be in this range or better.
On a reported basis, second quarter SG&A increased $35 million to $230 million. In addition to the items just mentioned, the reported amount also included an $8 million increase in adjusted items, primarily due to a $7 million increase in realignment expense compared to prior year, and $3 million related to the Velan transaction. Despite the increased year-over-year amounts, reported SG&A as a percentage of sales declined 80 basis points to 21.3%. Our second quarter adjusted operating margin increased 320 basis points to 10.4%, reflecting our strong operational performance, less frictional costs, and ongoing SG&A control. At the segment level, strong performance at FPD and FCD delivered adjusted segment operating margins of 13.2% and 13.3%, respectively.
This represents year-over-year improvement of 380 and 80 basis points, respectively. Second quarter reported operating margin increased 210 basis points year-over-year to 8.9%, where significant operating leverage was partially offset by the $13 million increase in adjusted items versus the prior year. Our adjusted tax rate was 26% in the second quarter. This is much higher than our full year guidance range and was primarily due to the geographical mix of income and the timing related to certain foreign tax credits. Considering the second quarter's rate, we now expect our full year adjusted tax rate to be approximately 20%. Turning to cash flow, we are pleased with the first half operating cash flow of $50 million, especially since the first half of the year is traditionally challenged.
With our performance in the first 6 months of 2023, we have produced a $122 million improvement versus the first half of last year, which is primarily due to our higher earnings level and a $90 million year-over-year reduction in cash used for working capital. We delivered a year-over-year improvement from an inventory perspective as well. Inventory, including contract assets and liabilities for the first half, was a use of $78 million versus the prior year use of $95 million. Despite the significant increase in revenues, we delivered a $16 million decrease in cash used for receivables. I'm pleased with our collection efforts, which produced a modest improvement in our days of sales outstanding.
We will continue to focus on improving our cash conversion cycle, which has been necessarily challenged over the last several quarters by our rapidly growing backlog, as well as an improving but still elevated lead times, causing some lingering challenges in the supply chain. As a percent of sales, primary working capital, supporting our recent bookings and backlog growth, declined modestly 90 basis points on a sequential basis to 31.9%. While our backlog has increased over 20% since the second quarter of 2022, our inventory, including contract assets and liabilities as a percent of backlog, has dropped 130 basis points to 30.7%.
We will continue to focus near term on reducing our working capital investment to a level below 30% of sales, driven by supply chain improvements and our more consistent and predictable executions. In addition to working capital, other significant uses of cash in the second quarter included $26 million in dividends, $17 million in capital expenditures, and a $10 million term loan debt reduction. As pleased as we are with the year-over-year improvement in free cash flow during the first half of 2023, we continue to expect our traditional cash flow phasing this year, as that will produce the vast majority of this year's free cash flow in a seasonally strong second half, primarily in the fourth quarter.
Turning to our outlook for the remainder of the year, we expect to continue our recent healthy operating performance, further capitalize on supportive end markets, and deliver solid second half adjusted operating margins and adjusted earnings per share. Additionally, we remain on track to achieve $50 million of full-year run rate cost savings by the end of the year through our organizational optimization strategy. As a result of the actions taken in the first half of the year, we have achieved roughly $16 million of full-year run rate savings and are already seeing wins through the new organizational design, including more efficient, streamlined processes, better accountability, and increased focus on our product and service offerings.
With our near record backlog of $2.8 billion and constructive end market environment, we now expect to deliver revenue growth in the 16%-18% range, including a modest currency benefit, given the weakening of the US dollar since the year began. We have also increased our full year expected adjusted EPS range to $1.85-$2.00, which incorporates our strong first half results and our expectations for a solid second half of the year. The midpoint of our range represents a year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS of 75%. Of further note, our guidance metrics, including the revenue and adjusted EPS target ranges, do not include any impact from the expected acquisition of Velan.
Our adjusted targets also exclude identified realignment expenses of approximately $40 million, as well as potential items that may occur during the year, such as below-the-line foreign currency effects and the impact of other discrete items, such as acquisitions, divestitures, additional realignment opportunities, special initiatives, tax reform laws, et cetera. Including the identified realignment spending and our other first half adjustments, we continue to expect our reported EPS in the range of $1.40-$1.65. Both the reported and adjusted EPS target range also assume recent foreign currency rates, reasonably stable commodity prices, no significant geopolitical disruptions, and expectations for the end market environment to remain supportive at the current levels. We also expect net interest expense of approximately $60 million and an adjusted full year tax rate of approximately 20%.
In terms of phasing for the remainder of the year and considering our expected shipping cadence, we expect our third quarter adjusted earnings to align closer to our first quarter results, but we expect to finish the year with a robust, seasonally strong fourth quarter. Our updated range reflects the positive momentum we have created over the last 3 quarters and increased confidence in our planning and execution. Let me now return the call to Scott.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Thanks, Amy. Let me finish our prepared remarks by discussing our 3D strategy and our outlook for the remainder of the year. As our results indicate, the 3D strategy has been successful to date and embraced by our associates and our customers. Flowserve is well positioned to diversify into promising growth markets and digitize our installed base, while also supporting our traditional customers in their decarbonization commitments and new energy ventures. Looking at each of the pillars of the 3Ds, starting with our diversification efforts. Water is one of the markets we are targeting. During the second quarter, we received three water project awards totaling nearly $25 million. Another example of diversification is growing our vacuum technology into additional end markets.
Recently, a global solutions provider for the food and feed markets selected SIHI's liquid ring vacuum technology to support the processing of edible oils and fats used in food and dairy alternatives. Flowserve solution will reduce their operating costs, CO2 emissions, and total energy usage. While this is only one illustration, in the second quarter, our vacuum pump bookings grew nearly 40% year-over-year as we continue to reposition the technology in new and attractive end markets. From a decarbonization perspective, our bookings remain strong, including record energy transition bookings in the quarter, as well as solid contribution from the nuclear markets, where we booked 2 North American projects totaling $12 million. We remain very optimistic about the outlook for nuclear awards as countries increasingly focus on providing clean and reliable energy.
Our current nuclear funnel is roughly double that amount it was at this time last year. Our strong nuclear portfolio of pumps, valves, and seals supports facilities across the globe, and Velan's offering will only further expand our nuclear valve capabilities. For decarbonization, I want to highlight our participation in a planned expansion of a renewable products refinery. This project is expected to nearly double the facility's existing production capability for Sustainable Aviation Fuel and renewable diesel fuel, utilizing Flowserve's valves and pump technology. Finally, on digitize, we continue to make progress deploying RedRaven, our IoT offering, and are now monitoring nearly 2,000 assets in over 70 customer facilities. Through the combination of new customers and renewals, we are growing this offering's reach at nearly twice the rate of last year.
We are committed to increasing the instrumentation of our installed base of pumps, valves, and seals to support our customers' monitoring needs, as well as providing predictive maintenance analytics and flow loop optimization. We believe that offering digitization capabilities will further position Flowserve to be a valued strategic partner by providing ongoing solutions to help minimize unplanned downtime and optimize their various flow loops. Flowserve was recently awarded contracts at three chemical facilities in Europe to monitor pumps, blowers, fans, and mechanical seals with RedRaven's technology. I am confident that our technology will significantly improve the efficiency of these assets while allowing our customers to better monitor and plan their overall operations. During the second quarter, Flowserve released our 2022 ESG report.
While this report provides great examples of our progress in each of these categories, it also provides an accurate depiction of who we are and what we stand for at Flowserve. It truly captures the essence of our culture and our ambition to make a difference in the world through innovative flow control technology. We have categorized our ESG program within the context of three Cs: culture, climate, and core responsibility. Our report highlights how our 3D growth strategy is in full alignment with our ESG objectives. I encourage everyone to review the full report. You can find it featured on our website at flowserve.com. Before I close, I want to provide a brief update on the Velan transaction. At this point, we have received all the necessary regulatory approvals, with the exception of the French government.
We are working diligently with the French authorities, at this time, we do not have a clear view on their approval timeline. We do expect to have better visibility into a path for closing the transaction in the near future. We remain excited about the combination with Velan, we are committed to working through the process to get to closing. Finally, I couldn't be more pleased with our progress this year, and I am encouraged by our results that we have achieved thus far in 2023. Despite our progress, there is more work to be done. We have further opportunities to drive margin expansion, continue to improve operations, and ensure that we have the best possible portfolio for today's environment. This is only the beginning, I am confident that Flowserve is positioned for additional success in the second half of this year and beyond.
We are pleased to share that Flowserve will hold an Analyst Day in New York City in late September. At the event, we will provide an update on our markets, our 3D growth strategy, technology developments, long-range financial targets, and our capital allocation framework. We will issue a press release in the coming weeks with further details. In closing, I want to thank our associates for their efforts, which enabled us to deliver an outstanding second quarter. Together, we have made great progress on our operations in executing our 3D strategy. I remain confident in our ability to maintain our momentum and drive further improvements throughout the year. Our focus remains on converting our $2.8 billion backlog, pursuing accelerated growth through our 3D strategy, and driving higher margins and earnings by leveraging supportive end markets, operational improvements, and our new organizational design.
I am confident that executing this approach will deliver long-term value for all of Flowserve stakeholders. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks, and we would now like to open the call to questions.
Operator (participant)
Of course. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, it is star one if you'd like to ask a question. We will go ahead and take our first question from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Nathan Jones (Managing Director)
Good morning, everyone.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Hey, Nathan.
Nathan Jones (Managing Director)
Maybe starting off with 1 on the guide. 3Q looks a lot like 1Q, would imply that 4Q looks a lot like 4Q last year. I would have thought you had some tailwinds going on in terms of better pricing coming out of the backlog, maybe a better mix with all of these aftermarket bookings. Do you feel like there's still a, you know, a degree of conservatism, which is understandable after the last couple of years, baked into the guidance here?
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
Sure. Thanks for the question, Nathan. I'll start with this. I would say overall, our, our, our philosophy on guidance this year has certainly been not to anticipate that everything goes exactly perfectly as we make our, our way through the course of the year. We certainly have a backlog in place that, that allows us to perform really strongly. As we think about second half incrementals, we think they're gonna look a lot like the first half of the year, but that'll be divided pretty heavily between or divided pretty starkly between the two quarters, with incrementals looking fantastic in the third quarter, as we have a relatively easy compare, and then tightening in the fourth, in the fourth quarter of the year.
Really, the third quarter, performance this year, as we sequence from the second quarter to the third quarter, has to do with some traditional things that we see between the second and the third quarter. I think the first is really around holidays in the Western Hemisphere. The second is around some revenue that we pulled forward and accelerated into the second quarter of this year. The third is really around as uncertainty of some of the timing of the actuarial liabilities that we true up in the third quarter of this year. That kind of marks where we're seeing the third quarter in comparison to the second quarter.
Nathan Jones (Managing Director)
Maybe as my follow-up question, we'll talk about gross margins. You know, it's good to see them getting back to this consistent 30% level. Again, you should have some tailwinds over the next, you know, 18 months as some of this backlog converts from better absorption, from, you know, better pricing coming out, probably some operational improvement, that you've demonstrated here in the second quarter. Can you maybe talk a bit more about the medium-term outlook for gross margins and where you think they might be able to get to?
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. We definitely see this year as, as sort of a stabilizing year from a gross margin perspective, with the opportunity to really grow beyond that 30% range. You hit on some of the key factors that I think we see as the short to medium-term levers that we're pulling to both stabilize and grow margins, starting with, working off that lower margin, projects that have been in, in the backlog for the past several quarters. Getting to where we need to be from a price cost perspective, and seeing those pricing increases actually flow through into our results. Then finally, getting better operating leverage, and absorption through the higher revenue levels that we've seen in the last, several quarters.
I think, you know, whether you wanna call it medium to longer term, we still see that there are, are large levers for us to pull, and some of which we really put this new organizational structure in place to, to be able to pull on. I'd start there with improved capabilities from a product management perspective, and the ability and the willingness to rationalize our product offering. Finally, making roofline moves as permitted to really continue to make our way down the cost curve and grow those margins. I think I'd just put in another plug for our Investor Day and say one of the things that we're excited about doing in September is offering more insight into our long-term targets and our levers to achieve them.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Nathan, just to put it in perspective, right? We're, and we've said this before, we're very much focused on getting back to 2019 levels. That's our near-term focus. We wanna get the gross margins at 32%-33%. As Amy laid out, those short-term activities get us to that. Then there's still some levers beyond that with the product rationalization and the roof line that can drive us ahead. We feel confident in our ability to deliver the year with good margins, then we feel very good about a path to continuing to expand margins in 2024 and beyond.
Nathan Jones (Managing Director)
Gross margin expansion and SG&A leverage ahead, I get it. Thanks for taking the questions. I'll pass it on.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Yeah, thanks, Ben.
Operator (participant)
We'll go ahead and take our next question from Joe Giordano with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Joe Giordano (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Good morning, guys. I have a, like, kind of like a multiparter on energy transition, and then a quick one on Velan, to follow up. I'll start. Energy transition, like, bookings for the year, how, how big do you think that can be? And, like, how big is nuclear? I don't think, I don't think you combine nuclear into energy transition, right? Maybe if you could size both of those things.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
The energy transition, we, we, we categorize energy transition and new energy together, and that was $54 million in the quarter, and that's the highest that we've had thus far. We're pretty excited about that category. Generally, what would be in there is some of the, like, carbon capture, hydrogen, and other things. We're, we're pretty, you know, confident that we can continue to grow that. We're excited about what we see there. On the nuclear front, it's similar, right? We, we booked $50 million of nuclear work in Q2. That's a good number for us. What I would say, you know, we've seen that outlook in our funnel right now is doubled. We have good visibility to future work.
We've got a really nice portfolio with nuclear, and that's, you know, both on the pumps and valve side. We've got some strategic initiatives that will help us, not only on, you know, the traditional power, but on some of the small modular reactors and the new nuclear as well. This is a growth area that we're very excited about. We see opportunities in Eastern Europe, we see opportunities in Western Europe, we see opportunities in Asia, predominantly in India. What we see in the Americas is really around life extensions. With our installed base within nuclear, both on the valves and pump side, anytime there's an extension of life at a nuclear facility, we get substantial aftermarket work. This is something we'll talk more about in the Investor Day.
We'll talk more as we go forward. It's an area that we're very excited about it for the future.
Joe Giordano (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
What is a company like Exxon potentially talking about becoming, like, a massive lithium miner mean for a company like yours? Then just to follow up on Velan, is there something in France, like I've heard that they maybe have, like, a piece of business that's, like, military on submarines, that may have to be divested? If that's true, like, how large is, you know, a piece of business like that relative to the total?
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Okay. Yeah, let me talk on the lithium mining. Anytime there's mining, there's substantial water involved, and we've got pumps and valves that work in the mining application, handling water. Especially on the lithium, it is a high-water mining operation, so we're pretty excited about what we see in the funnel in terms of providing the high-efficiency pumps in the lithium mines, plus some of the valve work and then the mechanical seals as well. That's only opportunities. I'd just say, part of the energy transition, right, as folks are looking to, you know, more of these battery and these rare earth minerals to provide the, the energy storage, we see a lot of work in the funnel for, for this type of activity.
On Velan, you know, I said it in the prepared remarks, you know, we're working, you know, with all the, the authorities around the world. We've gotten approvals everywhere with the exception of France. You know, it's a difficult process in France. We're working with the Defense Ministry, the Energy Ministry. It's not necessarily anti-competitiveness, it's more about national security and, and the way France is moving forward. We're gonna work diligently with them. We're answering all of their questions. You know, we, we are very hopeful that we can get through this, but we are committed to the process, and we'll continue to, to answer questions. Hopefully, in the coming weeks, we'll be able to provide more clarity toward target closing.
Joe Giordano (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
Our next question will come from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Hey, Deane.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hey, I might have missed this, but you were emphasizing the absence of big projects in the quarter. Did you miss any? Just, yeah, were just not that many to bid on. Was there any selectivity, kind of your win rate there? Just some color for starters.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Sure. We, we actually see substantial amount of project work, I would say with the, the backlog that we have and the margin expectations, we're being very selective on, one, what we bid on, and then two, what margins that we, you know, are prepared to win. So we are looking at it at a balanced approach, right? Typically, these big projects are highly engineered works. They give us a lot of good aftermarket. We've got a better formula to make sure that we get the returns that we want. Again, given the MRO activity so strong and the, the absorption where we are in our plants, we're not gonna get overly aggressive on this work. Our funnel is substantial. We've got visibility to a lot of this.
You know, I'm not saying we're walking away from it, but we're getting a lot smarter about what we wanna win and how we create value with those awards. I, you know, I'm optimistic that we will see some larger awards throughout the year, but we're not gonna over-rotate here and take work that doesn't bring the calories that we believe we deserve for the effort that it takes to, to perform these big projects.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
All right. I love hearing the selectivity angle to this, so that sounds good. Then, on the other side, on aftermarket being elevated, some perspective would be helpful here. Is this a result of, you know, overall industry activity being higher, capacity utilization being higher, or are you winning more of your share, or is it a combination? You know, was there some deferred maintenance that now you're getting that opportunity? Some perspective there, if you could.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Sure, Deane. Yeah, the aftermarket bookings at 591 are at record levels. They're up 12% year-over-year, and it really is a combination of things. You know, what we're seeing is, you know, this underspend in the COVID years, so think, you know, 2020 through 2020, kind of the beginning of 2022. There's a lot of catch up going on there. Also, a lot of these assets are performing at really high utilization rates. As they're wearing through pumps, valves, and seals, we're starting to pick up more work. Finally, we've really put a lot of effort around what we call our services and solutions business, which is what supports the aftermarket. This is life cycle agreement contracts.
This is, you know, a, a significant focus on lead time reduction in our quoting, lead time reduction in delivery of parts. This focus is now paying off. We call, you know, our win rate, we call it our entitlement. What we're seeing is that our entitlement is actually coming up as we convert this higher level of work. We're winning more market share. There's more activity out there. The last point, and, and it's an important one, there is substantial work around compliance that's happening all over the globe. As different regulation comes through or a company changes their standards for emissions, then there's aftermarket opportunities for us. We see that in the seal side, we see it in valves, we see it in pumps as well.
Some of this change in regulation and company standards is also helping to drive our aftermarket growth. Just before I get off the topic, I'd just say, you know, we, we track this on a daily and a weekly basis. We've got good visibility to that aftermarket work around the world. At this point, we're not seeing any signs of slowdown. We'll continue to be vigilant about that, but we, you know, at this point, we firmly believe that we can keep this level of activity going, you know, for the foreseeable future.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
All right. That's all good to hear. Just 1 quick follow-up, is what you have not said today, like some of your industrial peers, you haven't pointed to some destocking going on, either at the OE or at the distributor level. Are you seeing any of that? Obviously, it's not showing up in your numbers. It's not in the commentary, but any color there would be helpful.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Sure. Yeah, I think, you know, the distributors, you know, it's always a little bit of a game there, right? It, it all depends on our lead times. So when our lead times are short, they can keep less on their shelves. When our lead times are long, they've got to stock up and have the inventory for their customers. So there's a bit of a balance there. Lead times globally are coming down, which is gonna allow distributors to, to destock a bit. At the same time, you know, our distribution bookings have been incredibly healthy, you know, last year and into the beginning of this year, and I really don't see that as a massive headwind for us. I think there, you know, it might be flat for a little bit, but the overall activity through our distribution channel has been really good.
You look at our general industry bookings, they're up substantially year-over-year. A lot of that was driven by some, you know, kind of unique project work that we picked up. Overall, distribution's hanging in there, and I wouldn't see that as a substantial headwind as we go forward.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
All right. I like hearing that. Amy, thank you for all of the working capital and cash cycle, updates and data points. Really appreciate that. Thank you.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Our next question will come from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Sabrina Abrams (Equity Research Associate)
Hey, you have Sabrina Abrams on for Andrew Obin.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Okay. Hi, Sabrina.
Sabrina Abrams (Equity Research Associate)
Hey, could you guys give some color on the profitability for the decarbonization and clean energy projects? Would these have the same profile as maybe traditional EPC contracts, or because there's tax credits involved, does it sort of come in at a better margin?
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Now, right now, that work is, is pretty much on par with the rest of our portfolio, and I would say more in kind of that general industrial type work rather than the highly engineered oil and gas work. So we like the margins there. What I will say is some of the projects attract a lot of attention, as you could expect, and folks want to tell a good story there, and so sometimes we're seeing a little bit more pressure on price. I'd say a good bar for that would be, you know, at least at the margins that you're seeing for FCD and FPD, sometimes a bit higher, and then if it's a, a flagship project, it might be a little bit lower just because there's more people attractive, or attracted to the project.
What I will say is, you know, what we're very, very focused on is trying to, to select a handful of operators that are leading in the energy transition. By doing that, we can work with them more upfront and select Flowserve at the very beginning. What we're finding when we're doing that is we get slightly higher margins, but more importantly, we're locked in through the design and the development, and we've got a front-row seat to whatever that, that capability or that process is. Whether it's carbon capture or hydrogen or recyclables, we're in the middle of understanding what the flow loop requirements are. That approach is working well.
We feel like we're winning more of our share in the decarbonization. I would expect as we continue to learn more, we'll be able to get higher margins, both in the, the original equipment and in the aftermarket.
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
I just add to that, I think the goal behind behind these projects is to make them scalable and repeatable, and that works for us as well as we're able to continue to repeat that design and get better and better at the manufacturing process. It goes along. That, that helps us with margins over time.
Sabrina Abrams (Equity Research Associate)
Great. Thank you for that. I think last quarter, and throughout, like, the past several quarters, you've commented on seeing margins in the backlog improve, and kept getting better. Is this still on an upward trend where the products you're currently booking have a better profile than what's currently in the P&L?
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
That's what we see happening, and it's happening in 2 ways. One, just the, the release of, of some of these, lower-margin projects from the backlog over time, and that's happening pretty ratably over the course of, of 2023. The other thing that's happening, in addition to just the, the overall environment being more constructive, is the mix that we're talking about as we look at, aftermarket and original equipment being one that's, that's favorable overall to, to the margins in our, in our backlog as well. We do view that as something that sets us up well, both coming into the back half of the year, but more importantly, as we transition into 2024.
Sabrina Abrams (Equity Research Associate)
Thank you. I'll pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Next question will come from Michael Halloran with Baird. Please go ahead.
Michael Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)
Hey, good morning, everyone. Can you just talk a little bit more about the project funnel and how you see it laying out? Obviously, the commentary on the nuclear side and the confidence or the growing confidence you see in the energy transition piece, that makes a lot of sense. If you look at some of the more traditional pieces of your business, could you just talk to how you think that project funnel is developing in the marketplace and if you think things are still being added, or if there's any hesitancy growing anywhere in that chain?
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
No, the project funnel looks good, and I, you know, I said this in the prepared remarks, we've seen the project funnel grow year to date. We're above where we were last year with the project funnel, and last year, the funnel included the Jafurah project at $200 million-plus. You know, we think, we like what the project funnel is showing us. In terms of kind of areas where we've seen substantial growth, nuclear is up significantly, LNG is up significantly, and then the whole decarbonization and new energy is up significantly. From a regional perspective, the Middle East is the highest, and we're seeing significant opportunities in the Middle East. We're seeing those would be more traditional, both, you know, the downstream refinery and the chemical business.
Then in Asia, we still have good visibility to new projects, but those are more competitive and harder to win than, than what we have in the Middle East or in North America. Overall, I'd say it's, it's reasonably well balanced between some of the new stuff and, you know, what we've seen in a traditional fashion. Again, I, I feel confident in our ability to win, and I feel like as the market continues to move forward, the pricing dynamic will get better, and we'll start to see, you know, more wins on the OE side. You know, right now we're, we're in a good position. The, the backlog allows us to be more selective. We're, we're being disciplined in that approach, but I, I feel like we can continue to grow OE into next year and beyond.
Michael Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)
You know, thanks for that. A follow-up to part of the end of the question there, which is just the pricing piece. Obviously, you feel comfortable about how you guys are managing your pricing. I think you can see that in your backlog commentary. When you think about the end market dynamics or the marketplace dynamics, you mentioned you hope pricing can get a little better as we progress here. Are you seeing that happen anywhere at this point, or is this literally just you are being selective in the pricing, or are we getting to the point where there's, you know, enough capacity utilization from an industry perspective that you're seeing a little bit of softening in some of that competitiveness?
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Yeah. No, we, we have seen a substantial improvement year-over-year in pricing. You know, I'd say the whole industry is, is behaving and performing better. We would still like to see more improvement as we go forward, and there's still pockets that are highly selective. You know, if there's a flagship project out there that, you know, might have, you know, the energy transition associated with it or something in the Middle East that could provide lots of aftermarket, you know, we're still seeing some, some pricing that, that wouldn't make sense given where we are in the cycle. I would say overall, it's substantially better than last year, and I would expect it to improve from this point forward.
Michael Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)
Thanks, Scott. Appreciate it.
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
Next question will come from Damian Karas with UBS. Please go ahead.
Damian Karas (Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Damian Karas (Research Analyst)
Morning! You sound extremely confident in next year. Maybe just playing devil's advocate a bit, you know, thinking about some of the macro trends, things like PMIs in negative territory. What, what would it take to disrupt, you know, that, that growth through 2024? Maybe if you could just kind of talk about some of the key risks and, you know, are you-- are you, are you thinking that bookings kind of, you know, flatline from here, and, and you're getting that continued sales expansions for your, you know, backlog and projects, or, or are you kind of expecting you can continue to grow bookings into next year?
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Yeah, let, let me... I, I'll hit all. I'll hit bookings, revenue, and margins as we think about 2024. You know, right now, kind of based on the commentary and the outlook and the project funnel and where our aftermarket and MRO is, you know, we expect modest bookings increase in 2024. You know, I don't think you're going to see what we saw last year, that, you know, 15+% across the board, but I think we're going to see modest growth. The activity is there, and, and I think, you know, we, we've been pretty selective on some of this bigger work. You know, we have the ability to go down, but at this point, there's no reason to do that, to, to win more work given the, where the backlog is.
So, you know, I, I feel like we can go forward with the OE side, and I don't see the MRO and aftermarket going down either, given the utilization rates and some of the, you know, what I said before on the compliance changes in the regulatory environment. Now, what could go wrong? I mean, you know, anything that's driving, you know, a hard, you know, recession or a change in the outlook of the economy obviously impacts this business. So, you know, could that happen? Sure. At this point, though, given the pullback in 2022 or 2020 and 2021, I just don't see that given the substantial underinvestment in these end markets. So I, I think there's growth for us for the next couple of years. We can see that, you know, in the general indices out there.
A lot of the oil and gas companies have talked about their, their, you know, willingness and need to spend. We're seeing it in the international side. You know, when we think about the two big drivers for us right now, it's this energy security, which, you know, nations and countries are, are desperate to secure their energy source. That's number one, and then the decarbonization efforts, that's number two. I don't see either of those reversing course, and I think there's only going to be more investment to make sure that they can secure their energy and then decarbonize existing assets. I, I feel good about it. When we look about, let's go to revenue for 2024, you know, again, we're, we're positioned pretty well there, given the backlog that we have and the, the ongoing bookings.
You, you know, bookings would have to decline pretty substantially. I'm looking at Amy for a number here. I'm not going to throw out a number, but they'd have to come down pretty significantly from where we are today to not have revenue growth in 2024. We feel like in, you know, multiple environments, we still grow the company into 2024. Amy laid out our, our margins, right? Again, we feel we're very well positioned, both in the short term and the medium and long term, to continue to drive gross margin expansion into 2024.
I won't walk through the list that she mentioned earlier, but, you know, right now we feel like we're as well-positioned as, you know, any of the peer group in terms of being able to drive bookings growth, revenue growth, and margin performance into 2024.
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, Damian, I just used as a, as a data point, that when we started the year with a, with a smaller backlog than we have today, we had, we had guided initially to 6%-8% revenue growth, and we had, we had a number of people point out that that declined or that that implied a negative, kind of book-and-burn business, in terms of from a growth perspective in 2023. The backlog is really gives us a lot of insight into what 2024 can and, and should look like, kind of regardless of, of the, the macro environment at that point in time, and it's, and it's our job to capitalize on that.
Damian Karas (Research Analyst)
Great, really appreciate all that. You know, times are pretty rosy right now, so just curious how you're thinking about managing the business, things like, you know, your staffing and headcount, investment levels, and I guess just more generally, costs in your footprint, kind of just making sure that you don't get caught with your pants down, down the road when the tide does eventually turn.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Sure. No, I mean, we've announced a $50 million cost out program, as we said in the prepared remarks, that, you know, we're still on track to deliver that. You know, that is kind of the recession-proofing. So there's opportunities to align our cost structure with, you know, some of the things that we think. Then, you know, we've done this significant reorganization that we launched at the beginning of this year, and the new reorganization is really intended to focus more at the product level and the BU level and support our 3D strategy. So part of the realignment here is to really get the organization fully aligned with the 3D strategy.
Then, you know, on the positive side, it helps us, you know, not only on the margins, but it helps us think about and being preserved for the future there. That's in place. We're committed to that moving forward. In fact, a lot of that work has already been done.
Damian Karas (Research Analyst)
Great. Looking forward to the Investor Day. Best of luck.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question will come from Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Brett Linzey (Senior US Industrials Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, all. Hey, just wanted to come back to the, the project funnel. Just suggesting it's heavier aftermarket versus OE. I, I guess, first, is that the case? Then what is the typical lag between, you know, something that enters the funnel to an order, to a shipment? Then just to follow up off that.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Yeah, just to be clear, when we talk about the project funnel, that really is the OE work. It, it doesn't necessarily include any of our aftermarket business. So the optimism there was really on the OE side and the project side. We've got kind of a threshold that, you know, there's only projects that are X million dollars in there or higher. So this is really a, a nice barometer or an index for the larger EPC-type work that, that we see out there. So again, you know, we feel good about that. That funnel is up, you know, year-over-year without the Jafurah project, and we've seen a substantial increase since the beginning of the year.
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
When we talk about the funnel, we are talking about a subset of the funnel, which we believe will book within the next 12 months.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Yeah. No, thank you, Amy.
Brett Linzey (Senior US Industrials Equity Research Analyst)
Yep, got it. Thanks. Makes sense. Just back to the organizational redesign. Was hoping you could spend a little more time around the, you know, the streamlining, the efficiency efforts. Is there a way to frame in, in dollar terms or margin terms, you know, what the enablement will be, you know, over time here?
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Sure. I, I would say the, the, the enablement and what it's gonna give us, we'll do that at the Analyst Day, that'll. You know, we're, we're gonna hit that head-on and, and commit to some longer term targets and exactly what could be attributed to the reorg. The reorg itself, fundamentally, you know, what it did is it, it, it took us to two major divisions. You know, in the past, we had, had three leaders, that one was leading the aftermarket business. What we did below that, which is really important, is we now have seven business units with business unit leaders. Think about, like the business unit would be industrial pumps, our seal business.
The engineered isolation valve business is now a, a vertical and a, and a, you know, with a VPG and leader. You know, before, you know, as we went through Flowserve 2.0, we had a pretty heavy structure at the corporate level, truly defining process and standards around the organization. Now, as we evolve to this new organization, we can slim down the corporate functions in terms of process and control. What we're now doing is really putting the onus and the accountability level at these seven BUs across the organization. We're really excited about what it brings. It's a, it's a more customer-focused organization, and, and then it drives simplicity across the entire Flowserve enterprise. It drives accountability for our results, and then it will lend itself to some cost out that we talked about previously.
Brett Linzey (Senior US Industrials Equity Research Analyst)
All right. Thanks for the insight. Best of luck. Great quarter.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Amy Schwetz (SVP and CFO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Our next question will come from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi. Please go ahead.
Piyush Avasthy (Research Analyst)
Hey, this is Piyush on behalf of Andy. Good morning, guys.
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Okay, good morning.
Piyush Avasthy (Research Analyst)
You guys touched on seeing good investments across recyclables and circular economy. We're definitely hearing more about this. Maybe can you comment on how impactful or how big of an end market can this be for Flowserve?
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Sure. You know, we, we've been fortunate to participate in a lot of the early big wins on the recyclable side, and we've got some great partnerships. One that we announced is with Clariter, that's truly doing a, a green, green, you know, recyclables back to base materials, including food grade, oils, and waxes. So we've had a front-row seat now, and, you know, it's interesting to watch this evolve, but I, I, I, I would be reluctant to, at this point, to say what the overall potential is, but we have it as one of our three biggest growth opportunities within the decarbonization lane. So we're, we're very excited about it. It lends itself well to our portfolio of valves and pumps. So when you're breaking down plastics, it requires high heat.
There's a caustic component to it, and so it, it allows us to provide more of an engineered solution. Then, as Amy said earlier, the other thing that we're doing with these companies is a lot of them are relatively small or, you know, early in their inception, and we're actually being we're, we're helping them substantially scale their companies by helping them look at their flow control or their flow loops in terms of efficiency, and using the right equipment and driving an optimal flow loop for the recyclable process. This is something that we're pretty excited about it. We will talk about it as an end market in the Investor Day, but at this point, I'm not prepared to talk about what, you know, what the overall potential is because it's evolving so quickly.
Piyush Avasthy (Research Analyst)
Got it. Helpful, Scott. Lastly, on China, relatively small end market for you, but we have been hearing some cautious comments. Can you elaborate from Flowserve's perspective, what you're seeing in that region?
Scott Rowe (President and CEO)
Yeah, I, I think, you know, cautious is probably a good word for China right now. It's not a huge part of our overall business, but it is a business that we'd like to, you know, continue to grow and being involved in. I would say, you know, this, the, you know, emerging from COVID, we, we had some, you know, higher activity last year. It's kind of flatlined, you know, thus far this year. We do have visibility to some larger projects, but, you know, right now we're seeing those get slide, you know, slid to the right and delayed a bit. I'd just say, you know, relatively cautious view on the Chinese end market, but, you know, overall, Asia-Pacific for us, we still feel that we can grow our business there.
Piyush Avasthy (Research Analyst)
Got it. I appreciate all the color. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
With that, that was our last question. That does conclude our question and answer session. I would now like to thank you for joining today's call. That does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
