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FLOWSERVE CORP (FLS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Strong start to 2025: revenue $1.14B (+5%), adjusted EPS $0.72 (+24%), adjusted operating margin 12.8% (+190 bps), and record aftermarket bookings (~$689M); book-to-bill ~1.07x, backlog $2.9B .
- Revenue and “Primary EPS” topped S&P Global consensus; Q1 revenue $1.145B vs $1.110B est., Primary EPS $0.62 vs $0.60 est.; adjusted EPS of $0.72 drove the beat on execution and mix benefits in Pumps (FPD) and 80/20 actions in both segments (values with asterisks from S&P Global)* .
- 2025 outlook reaffirmed: total sales growth +5% to +7%, adjusted EPS $3.10–$3.30, net interest ~$70M, tax ~21%, capex $80–$90M; framework embeds tariff impacts and mitigating actions .
- Potential stock drivers: sustained nuclear/power momentum (3rd consecutive quarter >$100M nuclear awards), record aftermarket, ongoing margin expansion, and tariff mitigation/pricing offset; watch for 2H tariff mix pressure (more in valves/FCD) and backlog repricing cadence .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Aftermarket strength and 3D strategy: record aftermarket bookings (~$690M), 3D bookings 31% of awards, nuclear >$100M for a third straight quarter, power bookings +45% YoY .
- Margin expansion and execution: adjusted gross margin 33.5% (+180 bps) and adjusted operating margin 12.8% (+190 bps) on favorable mix, productivity, and early 80/20 benefits; FPD adjusted operating margin 17.7% (+280 bps) .
- Pricing and backlog agility: executed annual price increase in Jan and targeted tariff-related increases in Mar; using change orders to reprice affected projects in backlog; visibility to full mitigation of $90–$100M gross tariff impact over 2025 .
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What Went Wrong
- Cash flow headwinds in Q1: cash from operations was a $49.9M use, driven by timing of receivables, incentive payouts, and working capital; management expects improvement through the year .
- FCD margin pressure: FCD reported segment operating margin 8.6% (vs 10.8% LY), with tariff exposure relatively higher in valves; adjusted FCD operating margin 12.2% (+110 bps YoY) but management flagged more 2H tariff pressure in valves vs pumps .
- Tariff uncertainty and mix: management cited a dynamic macro/tariff environment with potential for 2H demand effects and mix headwinds; expects Q2 to be similar/slightly better than Q1 with 2H weighted earnings .
Financial Results
Segment performance (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024):
KPI trends:
Estimate comparison (S&P Global consensus):
Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Notes on non-GAAP: Q1 adjustments included realignment, MOGAS acquisition/integration, purchase accounting amortization, discrete items (pension-related share comp/settlement), and below-the-line FX ($11.4M; ~$0.07 EPS), bridging GAAP $0.56 to adjusted $0.72 .
Guidance Changes
Management reiterated that guidance assumes current tariff rates with mitigation actions, steady flow control demand, and 2H-weighted earnings .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Bookings grew 18%…Revenue increased 5% and adjusted gross margins expanded 180 bps…Adjusted EPS was $0.72…We remain confident…[but] the current tariff environment introduces a new dynamic” — CEO Scott Rowe .
- “Based on tariff rates known today, we estimate the annualized gross impact…between $90 million and $100 million…we have a number of levers…pricing actions…sourcing shifts…optimize the location of our work” .
- “Adjusted operating margin of 12.8%…driven by higher sales volume…robust FPD margins on favorable mix and accelerating 80/20 benefits” — CFO Amy Schwetz .
- “We repurchased $21 million…in Q1 and an additional $32 million in April…average cost $45 per share” .
- “We are reaffirming our earnings guidance…organic growth of 3% to 5% and adjusted EPS of $3.10 to $3.30” .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariffs and pricing: Management moved early with targeted price increases and expects to reprice backlog via change orders; believes pricing could offset roughly half of gross tariff impact, with supply chain/manufacturing shifts covering the rest; timing mismatch more in Q3–Q4, skewed to FCD .
- Aftermarket durability: Weekly run-rate remains elevated; $690M Q1 aftermarket included a one-time $50M nuclear order, but management remains confident the ~$600M cadence is sustainable .
- Segment cadence: Q2 expected similar/slightly better than Q1; 2H earnings weighted; mix headwinds in Q2 and more tariff pressure in 2H, especially valves .
- MOGAS integration: Slight bookings softness in projects but strong aftermarket at high margins; synergy ramp a 1H/2H story; accretive to earnings in Q1 and expected to accelerate through 2025 .
- Project funnel visibility: Elevated in power/energy/chemical; most near-term projects at/after FID, limiting cancellation risk; nuclear pipeline particularly long-dated with multi-quarter visibility .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025: Revenue beat ($1,144.5M vs $1,110.2M est.) and Primary EPS beat ($0.62 vs $0.60 est.). Adjusted EPS reported at $0.72, reflecting non-GAAP add-backs including below-the-line FX (~$0.07) (S&P consensus values with asterisks)*.
- Q2 2025 setup: Management guided Q2 similar/slightly better than Q1 with 2H weighting; mix and tariff timing temper incremental margins vs Q1 .
Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Sustained order momentum (book-to-bill >1.0) with record aftermarket and resilient run-rate business underpin visibility, while nuclear/power exposure provides structural tailwinds .
- Margin expansion is broad-based and process-driven (Flowserve Business System, 80/20), with FPD already at LT targets and FCD improving despite higher tariff exposure; watch FCD 2H margin cadence .
- Tariff risk is real but mitigatable: pricing, sourcing, and footprint provide offset levers; some 2H mismatch likely, especially in valves .
- Cash conversion should improve after Q1 seasonal/timing headwinds; management targets ~90%+ FY cash flow to adjusted net earnings .
- 2025 guidance reaffirmed with potential FX tailwind if USD remains weaker; management tone confident but vigilant on macro/tariffs .
- Tactical: Positive setup near term on execution/margins and aftermarket resiliency; monitor 2H tariff/mix impact and FCD margin progress as the key swing factors .
Footnote: Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.