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FLOWSERVE CORP (FLS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 delivered strong margin expansion and EPS despite slightly softer revenue: adjusted EPS $0.90 (+45% YoY) on sales of $1.174B (+3.6% YoY); adjusted operating margin rose 370 bps to 14.8% and adjusted gross margin rose 240 bps to 34.8% .
- Mixed vs Street: EPS beat S&P consensus ($0.90 vs $0.80*), while revenue missed ($1.174B vs $1.206B*); EBITDA modestly above consensus ($184.1M* vs $181.2M*) as mix and cost actions offset OE softness (aftermarket resilience) [GetEstimates].
- Guidance raised again: FY25 adjusted EPS increased to $3.40–$3.50 (from $3.25–$3.40), while total sales growth trimmed to +4–5% (organic ~2%) and capex lowered to ~$75M .
- Strategic catalysts: announced divestiture of legacy asbestos liabilities (expected to close 4Q25; improves FCF by
$15–$20M annually) and robust nuclear bookings ($140M in Q3) tied to AI/data center-driven power demand .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Margin execution: Adjusted operating margin reached 14.8% (+370 bps YoY); adjusted gross margin 34.8% (+240 bps YoY), reflecting Flowserve Business System and 80/20 actions .
- Aftermarket strength: Aftermarket bookings rose 6.3% YoY to $653.1M; Q3 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of >$600M aftermarket bookings, supporting resilience and mix .
- Nuclear and power momentum: Record ~$140M nuclear awards drove 23% YoY power bookings growth; management highlighted decades-long domain expertise and high barriers to entry underpinning attractive margins .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line vs estimates: Revenue of $1.174B missed S&P consensus ($1.206B*) on softer original equipment/project timing, especially in Middle East energy; OE bookings -4.9% YoY [GetEstimates].
- Segment mix pressure in Flow Control: FCD segment operating margin dipped to 12.3% from 13.2% YoY despite higher sales; SG&A and integration dynamics weighed, though sequential improvement noted with MOGAS .
- Reported volatility from one-offs: GAAP diluted EPS $1.67 included material non-operating items (e.g., merger termination payment credit in other income and discrete tax) that complicate comp; adjusted EPS more indicative of core ($0.90) .
Financial Results
Core P&L vs prior periods
Notes: Adjusted metrics per company reconciliation tables.
Q3 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus
Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment performance (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
KPIs and balance sheet
Additional items: Returned $173M to shareholders in Q3 (dividends + repurchases) and repurchased ~$145M of shares; continued repurchases into October for an additional ~$55M .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Flowserve delivered another quarter of exceptional performance… led by the strength of our aftermarket franchise and a resurgent Power and Nuclear end market fueled by growth of AI, increasing data center development, and broader electrification trends.” – Scott Rowe, CEO .
- “We are raising our adjusted EPS guidance range for the second time this year to $3.40 to $3.50… highlighting consistent execution of our strategy.” – CEO .
- “Adjusted operating margins increased 370 basis points to 14.8%… the second consecutive quarter within our 14–16% long-term targeted range, well ahead of 2027 expectations.” – CFO Amy Schwetz .
- “The divestiture [of asbestos liabilities] simplifies our capital structure, reduces volatility, and improves our annual cash flow by approximately $15–$20 million.” – CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Nuclear profitability and market share: Management underscored high barriers to entry, existing content in ~75% of ~400 reactors, and expectation to be market leader in valve and pump content; $10B decade-long opportunity excludes China given localization .
- Pricing/tariffs: Multiple U.S. price hikes in 2025; run-rate aftermarket pricing “sticky”; aiming for neutral-to-positive price/cost despite tariff noise .
- Middle East energy: OE project bookings at a five-year low in 2025 due to timing; funnel supportive of recovery in 2026+ .
- Free cash flow and working capital: Q3 CFO of $402M benefited from merger termination payment; excluding that, FCF conversion 174%; company targeting ~100% FCF for year with continued working capital improvement under FBS/80-20 .
- MOGAS integration: Margins accretive in Q3; modules shipped; focus on growth and synergies with FBS embedded .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 vs S&P Global: EPS beat ($0.90 vs $0.80*), revenue miss ($1.174B vs $1.206B*), EBITDA beat ($184.1M* vs $181.2M*). Guidance lift suggests upward EPS estimate revisions despite modest revenue trim (organic growth now ~2%) [GetEstimates].
- Near-term Street setup: Consensus looks for Q4 revenue ~$1.263B* and EPS ~$0.95*; margin trajectory and backlog conversion (offset by longer nuclear lead times) are key to delivery [GetEstimates].
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-led margin story intact: Aftermarket and 80/20/FBS actions are expanding margins ahead of LT targets; adjusted OI at 14.8% despite project timing headwinds .
- Nuclear is a multi-year growth driver: Record awards, high barriers, and attractive margins position FLS to capture outsized share as AI/data centers/electrification expand power demand .
- Near-term top-line variance manageable: Revenue slightly below consensus on OE/project timing; backlog and aftermarket support stable execution while Middle East energy recovers into 2026 .
- Higher FY EPS with disciplined capex: FY25 adjusted EPS raised to $3.40–$3.50; capex trimmed to ~$75M and tax/interest unchanged—providing operating leverage and FCF support .
- Balance sheet/capital allocation improving: Asbestos divestiture to reduce volatility and improve annual FCF by ~$15–$20M; active buybacks enhance per-share growth .
- Watch drivers for the next print: Sequential margin sustainment in FCD post-MOGAS, aftermarket capture rate, pricing vs tariffs, and booking cadence in nuclear/power and Middle East energy .
- Stock narrative: Expect focus on durable margin expansion and nuclear optionality; any incremental nuclear awards or backlog conversion improvements are likely positive catalysts, while renewed energy OE slippage would be a risk .