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FLOWSERVE CORP (FLS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered solid execution: sales of $1.180B (+1% YoY), adjusted operating margin 12.6% (+210 bps YoY), and adjusted EPS of $0.70; bookings were $1.175B with aftermarket strength ($618M) and >$110M in nuclear awards .
- Management initiated FY 2025 guidance: total sales growth +5–7% (organic +3–5%), adjusted EPS $3.10–$3.30, net interest expense ~$70M, adjusted tax rate ~21%, and capex $80–90M; midpoint EPS implies +22% YoY on adjusted basis .
- Mix and phasing impacted Q4: OE revenues down 2% while aftermarket grew 4%; FX translation (-100 bps to sales) and higher interest from the MOGAS deal reduced EPS by ~$0.04; adjusted tax rate normalized vs last year’s discrete benefits .
- Structural margin gains continued across Pumps (FPD) and Flow Control (FCD) as the Flowserve Business System and 80/20 portfolio actions expanded adjusted gross margin to 32.8% and adjusted operating margin to 12.6% .
- The Street consensus data from S&P Global for Q4 was unavailable due to request limits, so beat/miss vs estimates cannot be determined at this time (consensus unavailable).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Aftermarket momentum: Q4 aftermarket bookings of $618M marked the third straight quarter above $600M; management emphasized “speed wins” in service and rising capture rates .
- Nuclear and power market strength: >$110M nuclear awards in Q4; power bookings up >40% YoY, with selective bidding improving mix and margins .
- Margin expansion: Adjusted gross margin reached 32.8% and adjusted operating margin 12.6%, reflecting operational excellence and 80/20 portfolio simplification .
- “We made significant progress throughout 2024…expand margins, increase adjusted earnings, and deliver strong cash flow.” — CEO Scott Rowe .
What Went Wrong
- FX and interest headwinds: FX reduced reported sales growth by ~100 bps and adjusted EPS by ~$0.02; acquisition financing of MOGAS added ~$0.02 EPS headwind in Q4 .
- OE softness and project phasing: OE revenues down 2% as last year’s large percentage-of-completion revenue (e.g., Jafurah Phase I) did not repeat; FCD margins saw slight drag from MOGAS shipment timing .
- Tax normalization: Adjusted tax rate of ~21% vs 8% in Q4 2023 (which benefited from discrete items) reduced EPS by ~$0.13 YoY .
Financial Results
Quarterly Headline Results (oldest → newest)
Q4 YoY Comparison vs Q4 2023
Segment Results (FPD & FCD)
KPIs and Order Metrics
Non-GAAP Adjustments (Q4 2024)
- Key adjustments to arrive at adjusted EPS ($0.70): realignment ($0.08), acquisition-related ($0.04), purchase accounting/intangibles ($0.02), below-the-line FX (-$0.02) .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We made significant progress throughout 2024…expand margins, increase adjusted earnings, and deliver strong cash flow.” — Scott Rowe, CEO .
- “Adjusted operating margin of 12.6%…Q4 adjusted EPS was negatively impacted $0.02 by foreign currency translation…acquisition-related financing costs negatively impacted earnings by about $0.02.” — Amy Schwetz, CFO .
- “A $550M number would be the floor on aftermarket bookings…mantra is speed wins…capture rates are continuing to move up.” — Scott Rowe .
- “Our 3D strategy is well positioned…diversification bookings grew 9% and decarbonization bookings grew 36%…we increased RedRaven monitoring assets by 14%.” — Scott Rowe .
Q&A Highlights
- Aftermarket strategy: Teams focused on quote/repair cycle-time reduction driving higher capture rates; aftermarket bookings expected to remain robust .
- 80/20 impact: SKU reductions of 10–15% in units underway; revenue headwind negligible in 2025, while margin uplift accelerates into 2026; +50 bps GM expected in 2025 from portfolio actions .
- Book-to-bill outlook: Management expects >1.0 in 2025, citing strong project funnel, power/nuclear demand, and stable general industry aftermarket .
- Tariff preparedness: Detailed scenario planning; supply chain repositioning and pricing actions in place; U.S. exposure more on inputs (castings/forgings) than finished goods .
- LNG technology: Commercialization of cryogenic pump targeted for 2H; aftermarket services already contributing revenue .
- Channel inventory: U.S. stocking distributors lean; modest rebuild expected as sector backdrop remains favorable .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 (EPS, revenue) were unavailable due to request limits on retrieval at this time; as a result, beat/miss vs consensus cannot be determined (consensus unavailable).
- Actual results reported: Q4 sales $1.180B and adjusted EPS $0.70 .
- Where estimates may adjust: 2025 adjusted EPS guidance $3.10–$3.30 and commentary on FX headwinds and MOGAS synergy timing may prompt upward revisions to out-year margins and EPS trajectories .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Structural margin story intact: Adjusted operating margin advanced to 12.6% with clear levers (operational excellence and 80/20) to reach 2027 targets; FPD adjusted margin at 17.5% demonstrates sustained progress .
- Aftermarket durability: Three straight quarters >$600M bookings and management signaling a ~$550M floor underpin resilient cash flow and margin mix .
- Power/nuclear cycle strength: >$110M nuclear awards and >40% YoY power bookings suggest multi-year demand tailwinds; selective bidding bolsters margins .
- FY 2025 setup: Midpoint adjusted EPS +22% YoY with MOGAS contributing ~$0.16 and portfolio actions compounding through the year; expect more seasonally normal cadence (Q1 lowest, Q4 highest) .
- Watch headwinds: FX (-100 bps sales), higher interest expense from MOGAS financing, and normalized tax rate are earnings drags but manageable within guidance .
- Tactical angle: Near-term trading may key off aftermarket capture commentary, nuclear/power award flow, and confirmation of margin trajectory; channel inventory rebuild could support FCD volumes .
- Medium-term thesis: Execution under the Flowserve Business System plus 80/20 portfolio reduction supports sustained gross margin and operating margin expansion, compounding EPS and FCF generation .
Additional Relevant Q4 Press Releases
- Flowserve announced quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share and scheduled Q4 release/call .
- MOGAS acquisition completed on Oct 15, 2024, enhancing severe service valves exposure in mining/minerals and process industries (purchase price ~$305M) .