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    Fabrinet (FN)

    FN Q3 2025: Telecom revenue tops $406M, AWS deal fuels FY26 ramp

    Reported on May 6, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$220.90Last close (May 5, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$195.00Open (May 6, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-25.90(-11.72%)
    • Strong Telecom Growth: Q&A discussions emphasized record telecom revenue of $406 million with sustained growth drivers (e.g., rising ZR demand and new wins) that support robust and recurring revenue potential.
    • Strategic Cloud Partnership: The newly announced engagement with Amazon Web Services—its first direct relationship with a leading hyperscaler—positions the company well to expand into broader cloud markets and catalyze future revenue opportunities.
    • Robust Future Product Ramps: Management highlighted a significant ramp in 1.6T products and other key program wins slated for FY '26, driving confidence in continued 18% year-over-year growth and a strong long-term revenue trajectory. ** **
    • Short-Term Margin Pressure: The start-up costs associated with new product ramps, including the $4 million warrant impact in Q3 and additional short-term headwinds expected in Q4, could compress margins in the near term. [doc 5]
    • Product Transition Risk: The decline in 800-gig revenue driven by customers shifting capacity to ramp up 1.6T products raises concerns that if the transition doesn’t accelerate as anticipated, near-term revenue in the datacom segment may suffer. [doc 2][doc 7]
    • Delayed Revenue from Qualification Builds: Key wins, notably the Amazon partnership, are currently in the qualification phase with most revenue expected only in FY '26, introducing near-term revenue uncertainty. [doc 8]
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Telecom Performance and Recovery

    Q4 2024: Noted stabilization after a 20% revenue decline due to inventory digestion with early signs of recovery. Q1 2025: Recovery began with modest revenue growth and stabilization of traditional telecom. Q2 2025: Marked recovery with significant growth (24% YoY, record-level revenue of $348M) driven by DCI products and system wins.

    Q3 2025: Telecom segment posted record revenue of $406M, highlighting a strong turnaround from prior inventory challenges and reaffirming long‐term sustainable growth drivers such as 400ZR/800ZR and upcoming wins.

    Strengthening sentiment – from initial stabilization and modest recovery in earlier periods to record revenue in Q3, indicating accelerated recovery.

    Next‑Generation Datacom Product Ramps and Transition Risks

    Q4 2024: Discussion focused on the coexistence of 800G and 1.6T products with an emphasis on preparing for the more complex 1.6T ramp while maintaining current-generation demand. Q1 2025: Mentioned early shipments of 1.6T transceivers with delays due to foundry yield challenges and emerging product mix shifts. Q2 2025: Highlighted readiness for the 1.6T ramp, detailed timing, sample qualification builds, and some anticipated short-term softness in datacom revenue.

    Q3 2025: Expanded discussion on the 1.6T ramp with emphasis on capacity reallocation from 800G, clear acknowledgment of short‑term softness and start‑up margin headwinds, and a confident long‑term outlook.

    Continued emphasis with increased clarity – Transition risks remain a focus, with current sentiment stressing preparation for the ramp amid short‑term pressures.

    Capacity Expansion Initiatives

    Q4 2024: Announced the decision to break ground on Building 10 (2M sq ft) with expected capacity addition of ~$2.4B annually and clear financial plans. Q1 2025: Discussed preparatory steps (contractor lining, approvals) with optimism to begin construction by year‑end. Q2 2025: Detailed Building 10’s scope, timeline (18 months), and its significant capacity boost (+50%) while outlining CapEx impacts.

    Q3 2025: Provided an update that Building 10 construction, initiated in January 2025, is on track with potential for an accelerated timeline and remains a critical long‑term capacity initiative.

    Consistent momentum – Ongoing commitment to capacity expansion with progress updates reinforcing the strategic priority.

    Supply Chain and Component Risks

    Q1 2025: Addressed component risks by noting ample supply and early qualification of new sources; customer delays (e.g. Blackwell) provided additional time. Q2 2025: Explicit discussion of EML shortages (200G/100G) and qualification efforts, acknowledging supply chain dependencies and external timing uncertainties.

    Q3 2025: No specific mention of supply chain or component risks was made during the call.

    De‑emphasized in current period – Previously detailed concerns are not mentioned, suggesting a potential resolution or lower focus.

    Customer Concentration and Dependency Risks

    Q4 2024: Highlighted high concentration with NVIDIA (35%) and Cisco (13%), with the top 10 customers making up 86% of revenue. Q1 2025: Emphasized dependency on NVIDIA for designed transceivers across multiple data rates and the inherent lack of visibility into sourcing decisions.

    Q3 2025: No discussion or reiteration of customer concentration or dependency risks was observed.

    Not reiterated – Earlier concerns were discussed, but they are absent in Q3, suggesting reduced emphasis or stabilization.

    Strategic Cloud Partnership and Expanded Cloud Market Opportunities

    Not mentioned in Q4 2024, Q1 2025, or Q2 2025.

    Q3 2025: Introduced a strategic, multi‑year commercial relationship with AWS, including a warrant purchase arrangement, aimed at expanding cloud market opportunities and potentially serving as a proof point for engagements with other hyperscalers.

    New topic – Emerged in Q3 2025 with a positive and strategic outlook for market expansion.

    Short‑Term Margin Pressure from Ramp‑Up Costs

    Q4 2024: Noted margin pressures from seasonal merit increases and ramp‑up costs for new programs (e.g., Sienna win) anticipated to impact Q1, though operational efficiencies were expected to offset this later. Q2 2025: Some discussion of FX headwinds affecting gross margins, but no explicit mention of ramp‑up cost impacts was made.

    Q3 2025: Explicitly highlighted margin pressure including a $4M contra revenue impact from an Amazon warrant vesting and start‑up costs for ramping new products, with expectations of margin recovery as ramps progress.

    Increased focus – More explicit commentary in Q3 compared to earlier periods, underlining short‑term cost headwinds amid ramp‑up.

    Emerging Automotive and EV Charging Infrastructure Growth

    Q4 2024: Automotive revenue grew sequentially (17% increase, $86M) as non‑optical communications revenue rebounded after inventory issues. Q1 2025: Emphasized strong automotive growth with EV charging infrastructure products breaking $100M and demonstrating excellent momentum driven by share gains.

    Q3 2025: No mention of automotive or EV charging infrastructure growth was observed.

    De‑emphasized – Previously robust growth discussion in Q1 and Q4 is absent in Q3, indicating a shift of focus.

    1. Margin Impact
      Q: Impact of warrant on margins?
      A: Management explained a $4 million warrant expense reduced margins by about 40 basis points. Exchange rate effects were minimal, and any start-up cost headwinds are viewed as temporary.

    2. Product Transition
      Q: Why did 800-gig datacom decline?
      A: They noted that the decline in 800-gig revenue was due to customers shifting share towards ramping 1.6T products, rather than inventory issues.

    3. Telecom Growth
      Q: How sustainable is telecom growth?
      A: Telecom reached a record $406 million with robust ZR demand and new wins, suggesting continued sequential growth and momentum.

    4. Amazon Partnership
      Q: What is the Amazon engagement?
      A: The firm entered a multiyear advanced manufacturing agreement with Amazon, beginning with one product family, with significant revenue expected in FY '26.

    5. Customer Product Mix
      Q: Which products drive future demand?
      A: Management emphasized that the upcoming 1.6T transceivers for the Blackwell Ultra platform are key, with most of the ramp slated for FY '26.

    6. Revenue Classification
      Q: How is Amazon revenue recorded now?
      A: Currently, the Amazon qualification builds are grouped under an “other” category, with plans to recategorize for more clarity in the future.

    7. Margin Headwinds
      Q: Will start-up costs hurt margins?
      A: Although new product ramps bring short-term costs, these are expected to normalize as production scales up.

    8. Broader Cloud Impact
      Q: Does this deal affect other cloud opportunities?
      A: The agreement with Amazon is seen as a strong proof point that can help attract other hyperscale customers, without limiting any future engagements.

    9. ASP Trends
      Q: What about ASP differences for speeds?
      A: Management did not provide visibility on broader ASP trends or detailed pricing differences between 800-gig and 1.6T products.

    10. Outsourcing Trends
      Q: Will outsourcing partners boost business?
      A: They expressed interest in expanding manufacturing for partners like Coherent and Lumentum, but refrained from disclosing detailed progress.

    11. Tariff Impact
      Q: Are tariffs affecting performance?
      A: Tariffs haven't materially impacted the business because products ship FOB from Thailand, leaving customer demand steady.

    12. Capacity Expansion
      Q: When will Building 10 produce?
      A: Building 10 is on track to come online in about 18 months from ground‐breaking, with potential to accelerate if needed.

    13. Amazon Revenue Potential
      Q: How big is the Amazon opportunity?
      A: While specifics are confidential, management indicated the potential could approach figures seen in peers (around $400 million annually), with ramping effects mainly in FY '26.

    14. Telecom Drivers
      Q: What primarily drove telecom revenue?
      A: Growth was mainly driven by strong demand in ZR products and new system wins, reinforcing long-term telecom strength.