F.N.B. - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and welcome to the F.N.B. Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lisa Constantine, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Lisa Constantine (Manager of Investor Relations)

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our earnings call. This conference call of F.N.B. Corporation and the reports it files with the Securities and Exchange Commission often contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to and not as an alternative for our reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP operating measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our presentation materials and in our earnings release. Please refer to these non-GAAP and forward-looking statement disclosures contained in our related materials, reports, and registration statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available on our corporate website. A replay of this call will be available until Thursday, July 27th, and the webcast link will be posted to the About Us Investor Relations section of our corporate website.

I will now turn the call over to Vince Delie, Chairman, President, and CEO.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thank you, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Vince Calabrese, our Chief Financial Officer, and Gary Guerrieri, our Chief Credit Officer. F.N.B. reported second quarter net income available to common stockholders of $140.4 million, or $0.39 per diluted common share on an operating and reported basis. This brings the total year-to-date operating earnings per share to $0.79, a 39% increase over the same period in 2022. Operating pre-provision net revenue increased 51% year-to-date, resulting in an improvement in the efficiency ratio to 50% and an increase in operating return on tangible common equity to 19.1%. Average total loans increased 2.1% linked quarter to over $31 billion.

Commercial loan balances benefited from solid production, primarily in the Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and North and South Carolina markets. Average deposits totaled over $34 billion, a 1.3% decrease from the first quarter, largely due to seasonal deposit outflows caused by tax-related payments and the impact of the inflationary macroeconomic environment on our clients. Despite the acceleration of deposit competition caused by the recent banking disruption, the mix of non-interest bearing deposits to total deposits at June 30th remained relatively stable at 32%. The loan-to-deposit ratio was 92.7% at quarter end. Our strong deposit mix was a result of a focus on fostering relationships with our customers and serving as their primary bank.

Over the past several years, we've enhanced our product suite and digital capabilities, grown our exceptional team of bankers, and strategically expanded our market presence to offer best-in-class experiences for our customers that build convenience, trust, and a stable deposit base. For example, we recently launched the Common Account Application in our award-winning , where we intend to be the first bank to offer a single universal application for the majority of our products and services, enabling customers with the ability to apply for multiple products simultaneously. Utilizing advanced technology, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, the eStore Common App delivers a more efficient and secure application process with sophisticated data capabilities to offer customized product recommendations that cater to specific customer needs. By pre-filling numerous fields, the Common Application minimizes customer keystrokes and significantly reduces the amount of time needed to complete an application for multiple products.

The first phase of the Common Application, which we launched last month, includes all consumer loan products. Consumer deposit products will be added by the end of 2023, and business products will follow shortly after, in the first half of 2024. The streamlined process has led to an increase of over 170% in online applications for the month of June compared to a year ago, and we expect this number to continue to increase as we actively promote the capability. Outside of digital, we have continued to invest in our fee-based services offering. We are now expanding our award-winning treasury management platform with strategic priorities to drive organic growth, increase revenue, and generate low-cost deposits.

This quarter alone, clients of our new Integrated Payable Solutions product executed nearly $1 billion of payments while simultaneously benefiting from check outsourcing and reduced fraud risk. We've also leveraged integrated payables to continue to grow our commercial card revenue, which has a 19% compounded annual growth rate over the past three years and continues to expand through deeper penetration with commercial and small business clients. These investments in our comprehensive set of products and services continue to help F.N.B. grow non-interest bearing deposit accounts and further diversify our fee-based income streams, providing customers with high-value services.

F.N.B. continues to steadily increase market share. This quarter's 12% spot loan growth year-over-year has been achieved while adhering to our consistent and conservative underwriting guidance. Risk management remains an integral part of our culture. I will now turn the call over to Gary to comment in more detail on our asset quality and credit risk. Gary?

Gary L. Guerrieri (Chief Credit Officer)

Thank you, Vince. Good morning, everyone. We ended the quarter with our asset quality metrics remaining near historically low levels. Our performance for the period reflects total delinquency that ended the quarter at 75 basis points, NPLs and OREO at 47 basis points, and net charge-offs at 11 basis points. Criticized loans were down 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter. Classified assets were down 16 basis points. I will cover these asset quality highlights for the quarter in more detail, followed by an update on our office portfolio. Let's now walk through our credit results. Total delinquency increased 15 basis points in the quarter. NPLs and OREO, as a percent of total loans, were up 9 basis points compared to the prior quarter. The increase in NPLs in OREO was primarily attributed to a single $32 million C&I loan placed on non-performing status.

At quarter end, we reserved for approximately 40% of our exposure. This credit surfaced right at the end of the quarter from an emerging issue between our borrower and their primary business partner. Net charge-offs for the quarter totaled $8.7 million, or 11 basis points on an annualized basis, with 8 basis points reflecting the use of previously established specific reserves. Total provision expense for the quarter stood at $18,500,000, providing for loan growth and the previously mentioned specific reserve, offset by releases from the reduction in classified loans. Our ending funded reserve increased $9.3 million in the quarter and stands at $413 million, or a solid 1.32% of loans, reflecting our strong position relative to our peers.

When including acquired unamortized loan discounts, our reserve stands at 1.48%, and our NPL coverage position remains strong at 325%, inclusive of the unamortized loan discounts. We remain committed to consistent underwriting and strong credit risk management to maintain a balanced, well-positioned portfolio throughout economic cycles. We proactively review and stress test portfolios on an ongoing basis, including in the current quarter, where we performed a full company-wide stress test consistent with prior years. We were pleased with the outcome of the results, as it confirms that our diversified portfolio and proactive credit risk management enables us to withstand various economic downturn scenarios. Regarding the office portfolio, delinquency remains very low at 26 basis points, and criticized loans remain below 10%, with no negative migration in the quarter.

We renewed all commercial real estate loans secured by office properties that matured in the quarter with no downgrades required. We have and will continue to proactively manage this portfolio on a loan-by-loan basis as part of the in-depth reviews we regularly perform. In closing, asset quality metrics remain near historical lows, and we continue to generate diversified loan growth in attractive markets. We closely monitor macroeconomic trends and the individual markets in our footprint, and will continue to manage risk proactively and aggressively as part of our core credit philosophy, which has served us well throughout various economic cycles. I will now turn the call over to Vince Calabrese, our Chief Financial Officer, for his remarks.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Thanks, Gary. Good morning. Today, I will focus on the second quarter's financial results and offer guidance updates for the remainder of 2023. Second quarter net income available to common shareholders totaled $140.4 million, to $0.39 per diluted common share on both an operating and reported basis, bringing total year-to-date operating earnings to $0.79 per share. On a spot basis, loans and leases ended the quarter at $31 billion, growing $681 million or 2.2% linked quarter. Consumer loans increased $517 million, with strong seasonal contributions from the Physicians First mortgage program. Commercial loans and leases grew $164 million, or 0.8%, with loan spreads improving from the first quarter levels.

The investment portfolio decreased slightly to $7.2 billion as we redeployed cash to support loan growth. The total securities portfolio remains at a fairly even split between AFS and HTM, with 47% in available for sale and a duration of 4.5 years at quarter end. Total deposits ended the quarter at $33.8 billion, a decrease of $365 million linked quarter, or 1.1%, primarily due to seasonal deposit outflows from tax-related payments and the impact of the inflationary macroeconomic environment. The deposit mix continued to shift this quarter as customers moved $586 million into time deposits, partially offsetting the decline of $273 million in interest-bearing demand deposits and $383 million in non-interest-bearing demand deposits.

As of June 30th, non-interest-bearing demand deposits comprised 32% of total deposits, compared to 33% at March 31st. The banking industry disruptions clearly accelerated deposit competition, we still expect the mix of non-interest-bearing demand to total deposits to remain above pre-COVID levels. The loan-to-deposit ratio increased to 92.7% during the quarter, reflecting strong loan growth and the seasonal effect of tax payments on our deposits. Revenue totaled $410 million, driven by net interest income of $329 million, and stable non-interest income benefiting from our diversified fee businesses. Second quarter's net interest margin was 3.37%, with the quarterly decline expected to slow as the month of June was 3.34%. The yield on earning assets increased 26 basis points to 4.94% due to higher yields on loans, investment securities, and interest-bearing deposits with banks.

While the cost of funds increased 46 basis points to 1.64%, as the cost of interest-bearing deposits increased 47 basis points to 1.97%. We continue to actively manage our total deposit costs, which ended the quarter at 1.47%, bringing the total cumulative deposit beta to 27%. We expect to end 2023 in the mid-30s. Turning to non-interest income and expense. Non-interest income totaled $80.3 million, a 1% increase from a solid first quarter level. Service charges increased $1.4 million, or 4%, reflecting strong treasury management services and interchange fees, offsetting the overdraft practice changes that F.N.B. implemented in the first quarter of 2023. Dividends on non-marketable securities increased $1.4 million, or 33%, reflecting higher FHLB dividends due to additional borrowings.

Insurance commissions and fees decreased $1.8 million, or 23%, due to normal seasonality and strong overall production in the first quarter. Our wealth management business continued to generate strong contributions, with combined revenue of $17.7 million, up 12% on a year-over-year basis. Non-interest expense totaled $212 million, a decrease of $8 million, or nearly 4% from last quarter. Salaries and employee benefits decreased $6.3 million, primarily from seasonal compensation that occurred in the first quarter, partially offset by normal annual merit increases in the second quarter, and higher commissions driven by better than expected contributions from our mortgage banking and fee-based businesses. The efficiency ratio equals 50.0%, given the strong revenue and well-managed expenses. Our capital ratios remained solid throughout the quarter, with the CET1 ratio at our 10% targeted level.

Our TCE ended the quarter at 7.47%, when adjusted for our Heald-to-Maturity investment marks, equaled 6.8%, which we expect to remain higher than peer median levels. We also repurchased 2.3 million shares during the quarter at a weighted average price of $10.80. Tangible book value per common share was $8.79 at June 30th, an increase of $0.13 per share from March 31st, largely from the higher level of earnings, offsetting the increased impact of AOCI, which reduced tangible book value by $0.99 per share, compared to $0.87 at the end of the prior quarter. Let's now look at the 2023 financial objectives, starting with the balance sheet. On a full year spot basis, we maintain our previous guide for loans to increase mid-single digits year-over-year.

Total deposit balances are revised to end 2023, down low single digits relative to the December 31st, 2022 spot balances. We expect year-end levels to be flattish to the June 30th level of $33.8 billion, as seasonality should become a tailwind in the second half of 2023. Full year net interest income is expected to be between $1.28 billion and $1.32 billion, with the third quarter of 2023 between $313 million-$323 million. Our guidance currently assumes a 25 basis point rate hike next week, flat for the remainder of the year. The decrease in guidance from last quarter is largely related to our expectations for higher deposit betas, driven by strong competition for deposits and continued mix shift into time deposits.

We still expect the ratio of non-interest-bearing demand to total deposits to remain above pre-COVID levels. Full year non-interest income is expected to be between $315 million and $325 million, with the third quarter expected to be around $80 million. This upward revision incorporates the benefit of our diversified fee-based income strategy. Full year guidance for non-interest expense on an operating basis is expected to be at the high end of our prior guidance of $835 million-$855 million, largely due to higher commissions tied to better than expected fee income. The third quarter non-interest expense is expected to be between $210 million-$215 million. Full year provision guidance remains $65 million-$85 million and is dependent on net loan growth and potential CECL model related builds from a softer macroeconomic environment.

Lastly, the effective tax rate should be between 20% and 21% for the full year, which does not include any investment tax credit activity that may occur. With that, I will turn the call back to Vince.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thanks, Vince. F.N.B. achieved another solid quarter. Our financial performance stands out because of our innovative suite of products and services, conservative balance sheet management, and our culture rooted in risk management. All of this is made possible by our talented and dedicated employees. Our philosophy enables us to serve our customers through business cycles in ways other competitors cannot. We were currently recognized in Forbes 2023 Global 2000 and America's Best-In-State Banks, with the latter award based on customer feedback, showcasing the impact our employees have on our performance. Our capital position remains strong, with CET1 at our targeted operating level of 10%, while supporting loan growth and share repurchase activity in the quarter. The tangible book value per share continues to grow, totaling $8.79 this quarter, up 8.6% year-over-year.

As we look to the second half of the year, we remain uniquely positioned to capitalize on disruption and are poised to continue to drive shareholder value.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Daniel Tamayo from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Daniel Tamayo (VP of Equity Research)

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Morning.

Daniel Tamayo (VP of Equity Research)

I guess first, just on the net interest, or sorry, non-interest-bearing deposit balances. It's I'm not sure if I heard you. Did you have an explicit assumption baked into your guidance for where those end up at the end of the year? I know you mentioned they would end up above pre-COVID. I was just wondering if you had a little more detail on whereabout you're kind of thinking that that could land. Also just kind of within the quarter if you had any comments on the cadence of the mix shift, if it slowed throughout the quarter, if there was any kind of you know, pattern we might pick up on there. Thank you.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, I would say, you know, the non-interest bearing deposits, we do not have a specific target. You know, as a percentage of deposits, we mentioned we're at 32, down from 33%. Pre-COVID, we were at kind of 26% or so, and not looking for us to migrate down to that in the short run, which is kind of we expect it remaining higher than that. You know in my mind, the target would be to keep the 30 handle, if we can keep the 30 handle as we move forward. We do have seasonal municipal deposits to kind of build from here, you know, through October, November period, that would affect that non-interest bearing line item. It's a big focus in the company.

It's been for 15, 16 years, as far as growing non-interest bearing deposits, retail, commercial, municipal, as well as small business. It's very much a key focus here.

Daniel Tamayo (VP of Equity Research)

The shift has changed, right? I mean, the second part of that question was about the, you know, what's happening as we move forward with the deposit mix.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, the mix shift into CDs, I mean, it's still been pretty heavy, but it's definitely has slowed. I would say on the retail side, the requests for, you know, matching others rates has definitely slowed significantly from where it was a few quarters ago. On a commercial side, they're still very active, as you would expect, with every bank calling every other bank's customers. I think we've done a very nice job retaining our customers, and adding others, given the disruption in the marketplace.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

I know we keep mentioning this, you know, part of the reason I think our performance is going to show very well relative to others, when you look at the non-interest bearing category, in particular, because as I've said on numerous calls, our strategy has been to focus on client primacy, to be the primary bank for our customers. You know, the deposit base, particularly the non-interest bearing deposit base, is supported by, you know, compensating balances that are paying for treasury management services and, you know, embedded balances that exist, you know, with the float in consumer and small business accounts. You know I think our people have done a pretty good job of continuing that, and that's what's really helping us support our non-interest bearing deposit base.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

The other thing I would add too, I mean as far as kind of a proof point for the mix shift happening during the quarter, definitely strongly if we went through the quarter. If we look at the margin, you know, the margin with everything that all the banks did for the purposes in March. You know, from March to April, our margin went down 9 basis points to a 340 level, and then we were down 3 basis points from April to May and 3 from May to June. Clearly, there's been a slowing impact to the margin statistic that also runs through the net interest income.

Daniel Tamayo (VP of Equity Research)

That's great color. Appreciate all that. Maybe changing gears here for my second question, just on expenses. Just curious, you know, assuming we get through the year, you're, you know, at kind of the top of the guidance, that implies, you know, a quarterly run rate maybe, and just correct me if I'm wrong here, around the 213 mark or so. Wondering if you see any kind of opportunities to reduce expenses going forward, given the pressure on the top line?

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Well, you know, I mean, we've had a cost savings target every year you know, at the quarter, what? Fourth or fifth year of having you know, meaningful cost savings targets. For this year, it was $9 million, and we will see that as we go through the year. I mean, we run. We have a 50% efficiency ratio, so it's not like there's excess costs to take out. We continue every day to manage the expenses, whether it's renegotiating contracts, particularly, you know, one of the things rolling through expenses is just inflationary impacts, contracts that have CPI clauses that have kind of kicked in over previous quarters. We're actively going out to those vendors to look at renegotiating those contracts, and get something back for us.

With CPI where it's been at times, you know, we've had some significant increases there. Process improvement is a big focus in the company throughout. There continues to be opportunity there. It's every day, Danny, that we're managing the expense side of it, and we're disciplined, and we're continuing to pursue ways to kind of optimize our facilities, space optimization, which is just a constant quote. It's not something extra, kind of baked into what we do every day.

Daniel Tamayo (VP of Equity Research)

Understood. Thanks for taking my questions. Appreciate it.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

All right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jared Shaw, from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Timur Braziler (Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi, good morning. This is Timur Braziler, filling in for Jared. Maybe just following up on that line of commentary for deposits with the prepared remark of kind of mid-30s beta by year-end. I mean, that seems like a pretty conservative number. I mean beta increased 5 percentage points this quarter. You're assuming 1 more hike here. Is there an expectation that just given how you know, how well your deposits have performed so far, that there's going to be some element of a lag following the last rate hike? Or should we assume that kind of once the Fed is done barring any kind of additional mix shift, the cost is going to kind of slow as well?

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

I would say, I mean, I think our team continues to incredible job, strategically managing deposit costs, you know, and in an especially challenging environment. The balancing act there since post failure has been quite an effort throughout our company on the commercial side and the retail side, you know, with the Fed continuing to raise rates. I think that with one more move that everybody expects to happen in February, I mean next week, I don't think it just stops. I think there's as I mentioned, you know, a little bit earlier, there continues to be a lot of competition on the commercial deposit side, and we've done a great job retaining our customers for sure, and retaining deposits.

I think there's some probably carry on that happens as you go through there for some period of time. I mean, we've you know, the beta at 27 you know, we originally guided in April to mid-20s, so it's a couple points higher than 25, kind of use the midpoint a lot. Based on what we know now and our forecasts and how we're managing it, you know, the mid-30s, higher than the low 30s, that we kind of guesstimated, I would say, in April. I think that's a figure that feels reasonable to us, and if we can do better that'd be great.

Timur Braziler (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay, great. Maybe switching gears to the loan growth. I guess two questions. Number one, the resi growth and the Physicians First program just continues to fire on all cylinders. Resi is now approaching, you know, almost 20% of the loan book. I guess, you know, A, who's taking on mortgages right now? Is this purchase? Is this kind of refi activity? How much more room is there to run in resi? As we look ahead, what's kind of the mix shift or the mix of loan growth going forward that you're expecting?

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, well first of all, the borrowers in the Physicians First program are, you know, some of our best credit profiles, right? It tends to be, you know, physicians that are well established, that are, you know, upgrading their home. Most of the business that we do is purchase money. You know, the vast majority, not just Physicians First, but across our entire footprint, has been historically skewed towards purchase money. That's been our strategy. You know, I would expect as we move forward, you've kind of changed the focus a little bit so that we're producing more saleable product. You know, the Physicians First loans tend to be more balance sheet-oriented.

The rest of the book has been moving more in a direction of producing saleable product, which should help us manage the balance sheet. As we move forward, the comment about the concentrations, you know, we're aware and capable of adjusting. It could include sales and other avenues, but we also monitor concentration. I think overall, very high quality borrowers, particularly purchase money. You know, the game here is to make sure that we circle back or on the front end of origination, that's why we developed the eStore, is to offer multiple products and services to that group, particularly wealth management, brokerage, insurance, fee-based, high quality fee-based businesses.

You know, when we look at you know, we end up also getting opportunities on the business side with the practices and, you know, offering treasury management services and loan products, to help facilitate the build-out or, acquisition of, you know, practices.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Broaden those over time.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

We broaden those over time as well. Given that's pretty much our strategy with the mortgage book. I will say, you know, our goal has been to find originators that really do focus and are networked into the new home purchase market versus relying on refinance activity for production. That's been how we've looked at it for a long time.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

I mean, 97% of the originations were purchased, so there's, you know, very little refi. That'll pick up again when rates come down, but as we sit here today, it's virtually all purchase.

Timur Braziler (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Just last for me, maybe one for Gary. You know, we're in this period right now where everybody's expecting some sort of credit event in the, in the back end of this year or 2024. I guess, as you're going through, your kind of everyday review of the, of the loan book, does anything change with this expectation for some sort of credit event, or is it kind of business as usual as you're reviewing those loans? Are you trying to be more proactive? I know you're reviewing all the loans, all the CRE loans that are coming due this year and next, but is there an element of wanting to be more proactive and maybe putting aside additional allowance, kind of with this broader sentiment out there, or does nothing really change?

Gary L. Guerrieri (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah, Timur, I mean, for us, I would tell you that nothing really changes. We're very, very aggressive risk managers, and, you know, our program doesn't change from, you know, a move in the economy. Excuse me. We're going to continue to manage the book, portfolio by portfolio, loan by loan in some cases, as we've talked about in the office book with the issues going on in that space at this point. No real change, you know, as far as our risk management practices are concerned. Just continue to stay ahead of it, which is important from our perspective.

Timur Braziler (Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Thank you for the question.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Frank Schiraldi from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Morning. Just a couple of for me on capital. Vince, I think you noted you're kind of right at your CET1 target ratio. Just wondering, you know, I would assume, you know, including the AFS book, given the size of the bank, that's kind of less of a concern for you guys than maybe some of the larger banks out there that might see changes in capital rules. You know, just wondering about your priorities here, if we could see that CET1 ratio dip down a little bit through growth. You guys were a little bit more aggressive in share buybacks than I had in my model. Just wondering how you think about it here.

Is it just, more opportunistic at this point on buybacks?

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, I would say so, Frank. I mean, you know, we've established that 10% as an operating target for us. You know, we're right at 10.0. We're not going to manage it to 10.0 every quarter. Given the strong earnings for the quarter, as well as where the stock was trading, you know, we opportunistic, as you mentioned, that's kind of the key word. We were opportunistic. You know, we'll continue to be opportunistic as we go through the year. You know, we have a slide we added in here, looking at the CET1 ratio and TCE ratio, kind of as reported and then with the marks. I think you can see the CET1 ratio, at least at March, right, we were 10.0, 10.1 for the peers.

When you add in AFS, we're 9.3% versus 8.9%, and then if you added AFS and HTM, we're 8.6% versus 8.3%. You know, those are all comfortable levels and better than peers. Similarly, on the TCE ratio, you can, on slide 7, you can see the impact there. I mean, given the risk profile of the balance sheet, we feel very comfortable with that 10%. You know, the strong earnings generation supported our asset growth and then did enable us to be opportunistic. We expect to kind of gradually build CET1 in the second half of the year, you know, based on our current forecasts.

You know, we're going to put the money to support loan growth first, as we always do, and then where there's opportunities or if the loan growth is a little bit slower than what's in our model, you know, we'll be more active.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. All right, great. Just Vince, just to follow up on the deposits, you mentioned the seasonality of the muni deposit dollars. Just wondering, just for modeling purposes, if you can help with, you know, remind us the size in the past of those kind of flows and the expected costs maybe of those relative to the rest of the book?

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

From peak to trough, we usually use $300 million-$500 million as kind of a normal flow from down in the first quarter and then up through kind of the October, November time frame. We haven't disclosed costs specifically on those. I mean, you know, we've talked about where we're pricing. You know, we have some promotional CD rates that we instituted in May that are out there, kind of 5% for a 13-month CD, and 4.75% for 7-month CD. So far, we've generated about $400 million in CDs since the beginning of May, with about two-thirds of that being brand new money to the company. And some of the municipal customers will take advantage of that, too.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

You know, in almost every, right, we're the primary treasury management provider. We're not just, you know, permitting them to park money with us. You know, it's less likely that they'll migrate into those higher cost of products. If there's seasonality, particularly with ad valorem tax collection and other activities that go on that are seasonal, the amount of treasury management fees increase at this point in time. They tend to leave more demand deposits to cover the cost of that increase in operation. There's a lot of things going on with that portfolio. It's not just, you know, money flowing in and out, into high yield and, yes.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. I guess some of that will come in as non-interest bearing. Just kind of curious if it's going to-

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Right.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

You know, if it's going to really impact that kind of non-interest bearing trend, in a big enough way for us to kind of see it next quarter. Maybe not.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

I don't think it's going to have a dramatic impact. It's hard to say, though, based upon, you know, Earnings Credit Rate and what type of investment rate they can get, and whether, you know, the folks managing those balances at those entities decide to use free balances or benefit from investing. You know, that's all part of it. I just wanted to make clear that we're not, you know, just basically taking deposits, high yielding deposits, it's not what we do.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

No, the bulk of the money I referenced will really come through DDA side.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Because they

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

taxes, so that'll flow through the non-interest bearing line. I just clarify that.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, great. That's what I was curious on. Thank you, guys.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

All right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Michael Perito from KBW. Please go ahead.

Michael Perito (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Hi.

Michael Perito (Managing Director of Equity Research)

I wanted to start, and this question admittedly might be a quarter or so early here, but I was wondering if you could give us a little more color on, like, the incremental CD growth, the type of duration, and as you guys think about that moving forward, you know, at what point does that turn from kind of headwind to tailwind? You know, what's your experience? Kind of an uncharted territory here, but is that something you would hope, you know, if your rate forecast proves to be accurate, that if the environment cools off, you would be able to kind of roll some of that forward, lower? You know, obviously, competitively, the CD rates right now are probably the most competitive it's been in memory, recent memory.

Just curious how you guys think about that dynamic in the margin as we look ahead to next year, at this point.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, no, that's exactly how we think about it, Mike. You know, the average term of the CD portfolio is 10 months right now. The two specials that I mentioned that we have are 13-month and 7-month CDs, so very short. The idea being there that, you know, it's like you said, it's very competitive now, but if rates start to come down midyear, second half of next year, then we have an opportunity to reprice those lower. That's exactly the strategy.

Michael Perito (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Then, just as you guys think about, all the disruption in the industry, I think one of the, you know, the reasons, at least in my opinion, that you guys have weathered the storm so well, is just the diversity of the franchise, you know, both line of business, geographic. You know, you had some really large, well-respected players that are no longer around. Just strategically, is there anything on your roadmap that might be new or pulled forward, where there's opportunities maybe like on the private banking side or in some of these other small business niche businesses, that these banks had large market share and that you guys are looking at, that we should be mindful of as we think about, you know, 2024 and 2025 growth opportunities?

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

I don't think there's a specific business line from other banks that we would be interested in. I mean, we would have pursued that long ago. You know, we've always said that we were different. You know, we had been compared to those banks that are in our, you know, relative size range, right? At least a couple of years ago.

Michael Perito (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Mm-hmm.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

You know, they were in our peer group, they were benchmarked against them by analysts. You know, I think their model was vastly different than what we do. We've said that, you know, over time, if you go back and look at the old earnings call transcripts, I've said it over and over again. You know, we tend to focus on building relationships in the middle market, handling, you know, consumers, you know, kind of midstream consumers. We do have a private banking effort. We do have, you know, the Physicians First program, which is really focused on higher, high-income, consumers. We cater to the broad spectrum of consumer and small business, and that's really been our focus. We focused on investing in, you know, product capabilities that help us broaden the returns....

on capital that we deploy with consumers and, you know, businesses. You know, that doesn't sound like a very sexy model, but we've tried to manage risk by diversifying geographically. We said that repeatedly. Gary spends lots of time, his team, Thomas Fisher, Gary, the whole team, analyzing concentrations of risk so that there's granularity within the portfolio. Then I think if you go back and look at the earnings transcripts, even before all this happened, you know, I said we're a very strong consumer franchise with a granular deposit base. Our, our deposit mix was very favorable. You know, quite frankly, I think that is really paramount to the valuation of a bank. I think if you're going to evaluate, you know, the value of a financial institution, you want to look at their deposit base.

I, you know, I think I don't see us really changing. I do think, you know, with the exit of-- they are in our businesses as well, right? The exit of those players from, you know, from a competitive perspective, will help us. I, you know, I think from a wealth perspective, doing, you know, loans to high net worth individuals, you know, commercial lending in certain markets, you know, we'll be able to benefit from the disruption that's occurred.

Michael Perito (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Plus, opportunities to pick up bankers, too.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Absolutely. Hiring people, we've had, you know, no issue attracting talent. Actually, people reach out to us all the time, and that's not the way it was historically. I think our, you know, staying power and conservatism, you know, it really puts us in a strong position. That's why I've said it in my comments. As we move through the cycle to compete more effectively, we have liquidity, capital, capacity, a great product set. I think from a, I said it before, and I'll say it again, I think that our investment in technology, what we're focusing on for us, is spot on. It's improving the ability for clients to purchase multiple products and services through us in a very efficient way.

We continue to focus on the eStore, and, you know, that's why the consumer applications are up as much as they are. You know, I think because we add deposits in November to that platform, that's really going to help us with getting new consumers, because it'll be really easy to purchase, you know, multiple products and services and open depository accounts on one platform with one application. That's the most exciting part, you know, I think as we move forward, it's using AI and digital tools that we've put in place to make a better experience for the clients. Anyway, that's.

Michael Perito (Managing Director of Equity Research)

No, it's really helpful, caller. Thank you, guys. Just last question from me. I was just curious if you were willing to maybe share or provide some thoughts about the kind of the next phase of bank M&A here, Vince. I mean, it's pretty apparent that there's going to be some more consolidation on the heels of this event. Just curious, what you're seeing out there, it seems very slow and kind of regulatory headwinds at this current juncture, but just also maybe a comment on, you know, what you think that next iteration of consolidation could mean for F.N.B., from an opportunity standpoint, if at all.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Well, I, you know, I made a comment on one of the calls that I wouldn't want to be an investment banker. You know, everybody is going crazy at this point in time. I'm not going to make any, you know, sarcastic comment. I will say it might be a good time, you know, in the future, right, to be an investment banker, because there are a lot of banks that are struggling for a variety of reasons. As we move through this cycle, you know, I think when we come out the other end, there will be things to look at. I don't think we're there yet. You know, I think if we were to be active in M&A, I'm not suggesting that we are, we're kind of internally focused right now.

You know, we stick to the tried-and-true strategy of, you know, focusing on in-market deals where we can get cost saves, you know, that are immediately accretive to earnings and have very limited tangible book value dilution and returns on capital that are well above our cost of capital. That's our, we've said that forever. That's what the board expects. We're very disciplined around that, and I think it shows in our performance that we've stayed true to that, you know, that strategy. You know, I think the current M&A market is very challenging, still. You know, there's a lot of banks that probably would like to sell themselves, I don't know that the deal works from a mathematical perspective, you know, financial perspective.

You know, we've been focusing principally on building out our e-delivery channel, the eStore that I mentioned, and then augmenting that channel across our seven-state footprint with the deployment of ATMs and ITMs. You know, we feel that that's a better way for us to go in very cost effectively, bridge our physical delivery channel with the ATMs, branded ATMs, and then push our digital products to that customer base. You know, we've had some good success doing that. We're going to stay focused on that de novo strategy and the deployment of ATMs and continue to drive consumers and small businesses then. That's, that's my view on M&A.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

... no sarcastic headlines, so.

Michael Perito (Managing Director of Equity Research)

No, I appreciate it. It's an interesting time, so your thoughts are helpful. Thank you, Vincent. Thank you, guys, for taking all my questions.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Thanks, Mike.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Russell Gunther from Stephens. Please go ahead.

Russell Gunther (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning, guys. Wanted to follow up on comments that Gary made earlier. Just be helpful if you're able to share some of the assumptions that went into the company-wide stress test you performed this quarter. Sounds like that's something you do this time every year. Would be interesting to just get some kind of broad strokes around assumptions, particularly CRE price declines. Anything you guys could elaborate on?

Gary L. Guerrieri (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah, it's pretty much our normal stress test review, Russell, from the assumption perspective. You know, from a result perspective, charge-offs came in, you know, a little lower than they did the past review. In terms of the economic forecast, a little higher provision around the forecast. You know, in terms of the ACL, it covered, you know, those potential losses by more than 50% in a worst case, nine-quarter scenario. Just a standard review, which we do on a pretty regular basis, and it came out better than we expected and better than the prior reviews.

Russell Gunther (Managing Director)

Helpful, Gary. Thank you. Then, just switching gears for my last question here on the securities portfolio, just any appetite to restructure some of that, and if so, what type of earn back you guys might be willing to stomach?

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, no, I would say, I mean, historically, we've looked at that, and it's a zero-sum game. You know, we like this portfolio that we have. The cash flows, you know, are pretty healthy level, $800 million and almost $900 million over the next 12 months, about 12% of the portfolio. That's rolling off at 241, and, you know, today we're reinvesting in that kind of 540 level. Given the structure of the portfolio, I think our team, Scott and his team, have done a very nice job, creating a portfolio so you don't have significant extension risk or contraction risk. You know, with where we are today, the opportunity is there to cash flow, every month.

I mean, for the second quarter, we reinvested about two-thirds of the cash flows, $135 million or so, into the portfolio. The portfolio did shrink a little bit since we used some of the funds to fund the loan growth that was there. During the quarter, we reinvested at 5.29%. Today, it's 5.40%. Last quarter, first quarter was 5.10%. You know, we'll continue to opportunistically invest there. As we look ahead, kind of the general plan will be to hold the portfolio about the same level as it was at the end of June as we go forward. Again, being opportunistic with where we invest. So far, we've been able to put $82 million to work at 5.40% with a three-year duration.

I think the strategy of the portfolio, it's a good sound portfolio, and I think the strategy makes a lot of sense for us.

Russell Gunther (Managing Director)

Yep. No, it makes sense. Vince, thank you very much for the color.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Sure. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Manuel Navas, from D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Manuel Navas (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Just to kind of follow up on that, can you give a little bit more color on where you stand with borrowings and kind of decision-making and the process? I know you had it laddered out a little bit, and you gave kind of an update last quarter. Just kind of want to hear where you stand with borrowings today and with the cash on the balance sheet as well.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

I mean, as we sit here today, we still have about $1.2 billion of what I would call excess cash. You know, we put that on, you know, in the March timeframe, given the market disruption that occurred. Like I said, that affected our net interest margin statistic, that went down from kind of that March to April timeframe that I talked about. The dollars of NII, kind of close to a push to that. We talk about it regularly. For now, we're going to keep $1.2 billion. Right, Scott?

Gary L. Guerrieri (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah.

Manuel Navas (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, if I jump back to loan growth for a bit, it seems like the perspective is on the consumer side as purchase comes down and you're doing more gain on sale business, the consumer growth might decline a bit across the back half of the year, also on seasonality. Just kind of what are the trends there on an outlook? What are you seeing right now commercially?

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, I think you nailed it on the mortgage. Look, I mean, we're expecting it to, you know, tail off a little bit towards the end of the year. I do think, you know, commercial's up. The pipelines are up about 12% across the board. Good activity in the Carolinas. A little slower than, you know, previous years, but still good, solid activity. This is where our geographic diversification really helps us, right? Because I think the Mid-Atlantic has slowed. You know, D.C. and Baltimore is a little slower. Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh. It just chugged along, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Then the South is still experiencing... You know, we're experiencing elevated pipelines.

Like I said, I think it's a little slower than it has been in the past, but substantial enough to provide us with the opportunities to hit our guide, and that's why, you know, we reaffirmed our guide for the year.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

... you know, as we're halfway through here, so we're feeling a little better, right, about where we're going to end up, Vince.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Anyway, that's kind of the look. I think, you know, from a C&I perspective, there's probably a little more activity on the C&I side. Obviously, CRE is a little slower. Again, we're not a player in the large office space, you know, urban large office, we're not really a player there. You know, what we're seeing is a little different than others may have chased. You know, that's where we are.

Manuel Navas (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

What's the current size of the Physicians First portfolio? Is there any updates possible on kind of success on cross-sell or anything like that you can share?

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, I don't have statistics at hand to share with you. I mean, that portfolio continues to grow. It was north of $750 million in total. I don't have the exact number in front of me, but-

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, it's around, like, $1.5 billion of Physicians First portfolio.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, that's globally. I'm referencing what we originated in our program versus what we hold on our balance sheet. What we hold on our balance sheet is larger, throughout.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

That's.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

That's all physicians in the mortgage space.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, that's it.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Not just physicians in the Physicians First program. The total portfolio would be a billion and a half. Originated through our specific program, would be about $750 million-$800 million. I, you know, I think, you know, again, I think we're going to be focusing as we move forward on more saleable product, so we should be able to bring balances down. Those customers have, you know, we've really just started to scratch the surface in terms of how we go after cross-sell opportunity, so I don't have good statistics for you.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

We're early on.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

We're very early on, particularly with the aggregation of those products in the eStore. Come November, when we add the depository products, what's going to happen is when somebody originates a mortgage loan, even through the Physicians First program, they're going to be able to purchase the insurance and, you know, depository and other consumer loan products on the same platform, at 1 time with 1 application. Insurance isn't going to come until a little later, but deposits and loans will be there end to end, you know, by November.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, for physicians loans made this year, I mean, we're talking about 90% plus have, you know, multiple products.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Out the door with us.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Right.

Manuel Navas (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

All right. That's great. I guess my last question is, as we see NII and, you know, given your rate assumptions, that can change very quickly. given NII and NIM guidance, do we think that NII could bottom out, like, early next year? What are kind of thoughts around that? given that this is a little bit of a hypothetical for next year.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, I would say, I mean, the margin in NII probably bottoms kind of fourth to first quarter, kind of based on our current forecast and what we're thinking, and then we'll start to build there. Obviously, the earning asset growth that we have, right, is a key factor in there and helping to build an interesting thing. I would say over the kind of that fourth to first is based on what we see today, like you said, it can change quickly. That's kind of.

Manuel Navas (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Definitely.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Where we would see things kind of bottoming out.

Manuel Navas (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you. I appreciate the time.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Thank you.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yep. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Brian Martin, from Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, guys. Most of my stuff was just answered there with the loans and the margin, just one more on the margin, Vince. You know, I guess, does the pace of it sounds like the funding cost pressure is slowing so that the rate impact of, you know, going forward to the margin should be less and less. If you are dropping in fourth quarter or first quarter, the rate of decline in the margin should be maybe a bit more this quarter, maybe a bit less in the fourth quarter and kind of tailing off. Is that how to think about it, given your outlook on rates?

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, I would say. I mean, I mentioned the 3 basis points a month, the last couple of months. You know, what's baked into our guidance would probably be in that, I don't know, 3 to 4 a month, as we move forward from here. Clearly much slower pace than the 19 basis points that it was down in the 1st to 2nd quarter. That's what's kind of baked into our guidance. Bottoming in that kind of 4th to 1st, Brian, starting to slowly build from there.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Gotcha. Okay. Just on the liquidity part, in just deposit growth in general, I know you talked about, you know, maybe the non-interest bearing being a bit lower, but just as far as the contraction, and you talked about the seasonality this quarter on deposits. What's your outlook on deposits here? I mean, if you maintain that liquidity, is your expectation that those deposits, with seasonality, grow a bit this quarter? You know, I know you kind of gave the guidance for the full year, but just thinking about deposits in aggregate, not just the non-interest bearing bucket.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, I mean, what we commented on is kind of flat from June to the end of the year. You know, just given the municipal deposits flow, the flow through there. You know, I think if you look at our data, I mean, all the peers aren't out yet, but our deposit decreases versus the H.8 data, I think show very well. I think that the non-interest bearing changes from some of the stuff I've read is at the better end of things for sure, in the prior quarter compared to those that are out so far, so.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yep. Okay. Just on the liquidity, when you actually, you know, you may look at using that to fund the loan growth as opposed to just holding it for a bit. What's kind of the outlook on that liquidity?

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, really, just for now, I mean, we're going to hold it, Brian, where it is. I mean, we're earning 5.15% on it, right, Scott?

Gary L. Guerrieri (Chief Credit Officer)

Yep.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Well, 25 basis points that take.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Right.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

It's really not costing us to keep it. Just given the environment, you know, we don't have a set date. I ask that all the time.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

We're going to start to deploy it, but for now, we're going to maintain that $1.2 billion.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

it's from an NII standpoint, it's just not hurting us.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, you got it. Okay. Maybe just the last two was, it sounds like with the loan growth, you know, the pipelines are up a bit, but still, you know, kind of maybe a tepid on the commercial side. The buyback, I guess, is that something, you know, I guess, this current level type of repurchases could continue for the near term if the earnings are there and you're, you know, willing to take the capital, you know, maybe a bit lower if you, if you've got the, you know, the conservative credit quality after the stress test? Is that fair how to think about, you know, the buyback going forward? Certainly, you know, expecting that to be opportunistic.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Yeah, I think that's the key word. It's really opportunistic. If the loan grows a little slower than what's in our forecast, you know, we could become more active. From a capacity standpoint, we still have plenty under our authorization, $140 million of capacity authorized and still could be used by. We'll continue to be opportunistic. You know, we've managed that full alignment with shareholder interests, and we'll continue to do that.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yep. Okay. Maybe this is the last one. I think, Gary, you mentioned last quarter that you might after you've done the stress test, that you might think about doing, you know, making some selective sales on the office side. You know, I guess, any updates on that? I guess, as you've kind of gone through things, any changes to your outlook there? Still potential that that may occur?

Gary L. Guerrieri (Chief Credit Officer)

You know, Frank, we don't have anything in our queue at the moment. Really, really nothing that is teed up for, you know, a later year sale. It's always part of our quiver that we have to take action. You know, we'll continue to look at that as we move through the year, see if anything needs to be put into that category here before the end of the year. Nothing right now.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got you. Okay, perfect. I appreciate the update. Thanks for taking the questions.

Vincent J. Calabrese, Jr. (CFO)

Thanks, Brian.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Vincent Delie for any closing remarks.

Vincent Delie (Chairman, President, and CEO)

I'd just like to thank everybody for the questions, for the interest in F.N.B., and thank our shareholders for the continued support. We're looking forward to the second half of the year. I think there's some great opportunities for us to execute and perform well. I'd also like to thank our employees who are so dedicated and always get us through, you know, difficult times, good times, where we've got very engaged and dedicated employees, and I wanted to thank them as well for everything they've done. That's all I have. Thank you, everybody.

Operator (participant)

Conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.