FI
Funko, Inc. (FNKO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 net sales were $293.7M (+0.9% y/y) at the top end of guidance; gross margin expanded 480 bps y/y to 42.4% on favorable mix, lower product costs, and reduced freight/inventory reserve charges; adjusted EBITDA of $26.3M exceeded guidance, while SG&A overshot plan due to higher marketing to fuel DTC growth .
- DTC rose to 29% of gross sales in Q4 (from 25% in Q4’23), with DTC sales +20% y/y; Europe sales +21% y/y offset U.S. softness as mass retailers ended with lean inventories .
- 2025 outlook embeds a 20% China tariff assumption through Feb 27, 2025; management expects H1 down y/y and H2 up y/y as mitigation (pricing, sourcing shift, vendor cost-sharing) and DTC expansion ramp; FY25 guide: net sales $1.050–$1.082B, adj. EBITDA $80–$100M; Q1’25 guide: net sales $188–$198M, GM ~39%, SG&A ~$91M, adj. net loss $25–$22M, negative adj. EBITDA $14–$9M .
- Consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable at time of writing due to request limit; however, Q4 results beat company guidance on gross margin, adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, a likely positive narrative offset by cautious H1’25 setup and tariff risk .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Mix/Cost tailwinds expanded Q4 gross margin to 42.4% (vs. 37.6% y/y), aided by lower product costs and reduced freight/reserve charges; adjusted EBITDA of $26.3M exceeded guidance .
- DTC strength: DTC rose to 29% of gross sales in Q4 (25% in Q4’23), +20% y/y, with Pop! Yourself +110% y/y in Q4 and +185% for 2024, adding ~800k new fans; Bitty Pop! grew 83% y/y in Q4 .
- International momentum: Europe grew >20% in Q4; management cited double‑digit POS growth across major European retailers and strong fan/retailed feedback for Bitty City! .
Selected management quote:
- “We closed the year strong… adjusted EBITDA exceeding expectations, fueled by momentum of our Pop! Yourself and Bitty Pop!... DTC, EMEA and core collectibles…” .
What Went Wrong
- U.S. softness: Mass retailers limited purchases to end the year lean; U.S. net sales fell 9.7% y/y in Q4; management also cited lower U.S. foot traffic and a value‑seeking consumer .
- SG&A higher than guided in Q4 ($102.8M vs. $93–$99M) due to elevated marketing to drive DTC through peak promotional periods .
- 2025 near‑term headwinds: 20% China tariffs (about one‑third of product sourced from China) and U.S. consumer caution drive H1 down y/y before H2 recovery; border delays for Mexico‑assembled Pop! Yourself also disrupted deliveries/marketing cadence .
Financial Results
P&L vs prior year and prior quarter
Notes: Q4 gross margin improved on more favorable sales mix, lower product costs, reduced freight and inventory reserve charges . Q4 SG&A exceeded guidance due to higher marketing to fuel DTC .
Q4 2024 Segment/Geography Breakdown
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
Context: FY25 and Q1’25 guidance incorporate 20% China tariffs (through Feb 27, 2025) and softer U.S. consumer; H1 expected down y/y, H2 up y/y with mitigations and DTC expansion .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy and 2025 setup: “We expect measured top‑line growth in 2025, weighted toward the second half… expanding our presence in sports, music, and gaming… prioritizes sustainable, long‑term value creation.” .
- On H1/H2 cadence and tariff mitigation: “We now expect both net sales and adjusted EBITDA to be down y/y in the first half of 2025 and then up in the second half… mitigating tariffs… renegotiating factory costs… shifting production… pricing adjustments… expanding Pop! Yourself into new territories…” .
- Brand/channel discipline: “We have all but eliminated sales of our Funko Pop! products into discount channels, which we anticipate will revitalize our brand value…” .
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance assumptions and risk balance: Management embedded 20% China tariffs and softer U.S. consumer; upside from potential tariff delays/exemptions; downside from further escalation .
- Sports runway and margins: Sports currently ~4% of revenue with a long runway; margin profile broadly similar to core; Pop! Yourself accessories carry higher margin .
- U.S. POS and sell‑in vs sell‑through: Global POS +4% in Q4 (U.S. +1%, Europe +17%); U.S. mass retailers targeted healthy year‑end inventories rather than heavy discounting .
- Q1 softness drivers: Lower U.S. foot traffic and more cautious DTC customer, plus temporary U.S.‑Mexico border disruptions impacting Pop! Yourself deliveries/marketing .
- Pricing and sourcing mitigation: Pricing adjustments under evaluation; vendor cost‑sharing and further supply chain diversification in motion .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable due to a temporary request‑limit error at query time; as such, we cannot provide definitive “vs. consensus” comparisons for Q4, FY24, Q1’25, or FY25 at this time. However, relative to its own guidance, Funko delivered Q4 revenue at the high end and beat on gross margin, adjusted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA; SG&A was higher than guided on purposeful marketing investments .
- Implications: Street models may need to reflect stronger gross margin execution exiting 2024 and higher DTC mix, offset by H1’25 tariff and U.S. demand headwinds embedded in guidance .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution beat: Q4 margin/adj. EBITDA outperformance despite U.S. softness underscores progress in mix, cost, and inventory discipline; brand health improving as discount‑channel sell‑through is curtailed .
- DTC flywheel: DTC at 29% with strong unit economics; Pop! Yourself scaling (110% y/y in Q4) suggests sustained customer acquisition and mix benefits into H2’25 as international expansion begins .
- Geographic mix: EMEA strength (+21% y/y) offset U.S. retail caution; continued European POS momentum into early 2025 supports the H2 up‑year outlook .
- Near‑term caution: FY25 guide embeds H1 down/H2 up with 20% tariff assumption and weaker U.S. consumer; watch mitigation levers (pricing, sourcing shift) and any tariff policy updates .
- Category evolution: Sports, music, and gaming initiatives (NFL/NBA Pop! Yourself, artist collaborations, Mondo) broaden TAM and support diversified growth vectors beyond core collectibles .
- Non‑GAAP presentation change: Post‑SEC correspondence, Funko no longer adjusts non‑GAAP for one‑time inventory costs; this raised 2023 adjusted net loss by $29.3M and lowered 2023 adjusted EBITDA by $39.0M, improving comparability going forward .
- What to monitor: Q1’25 gross margin near 39%, DTC growth vs. elevated SG&A, U.S. retail traffic/replenishment cadence, tariff developments, and EMEA POS trends .
Appendix: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Highlights
- Year‑end 2024: Cash $34.7M; inventories $92.6M (down vs. $119.5M in 2023); total debt $182.8M (down from $273.6M in 2023) .
- 2024 cash from operations: $123.5M; capex $(32.8)M; net financing cash flow $(99.2)M with line‑of‑credit paydown and long‑term debt payments .
Non‑GAAP and Adjustments
- Adjusted net income (loss) and adjusted EBITDA are non‑GAAP; 2023 non‑GAAP no longer adjusts for inventory‑related one‑time costs after SEC correspondence, lowering 2023 adjusted EBITDA by $39.0M and increasing adjusted net loss by $29.3M .