AT
AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (FOLD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue was $125.2M, up 13% reported and 15% at constant exchange rates; Galafold grew 5% (6% CER) to $104.2M and Pombiliti + Opfolda grew 90% (92% CER) to $21.0M .
- Primary EPS (non-GAAP normalized) was $0.03 versus consensus of -$0.052, a clear beat; revenue missed consensus of $136.3M by ~$11.1M as ex-U.S. order timing and a higher UK VPAG rebate weighed on the quarter *.
- Guidance was adjusted: Total revenue growth to 15–22% (from 17–24%), Pombiliti + Opfolda growth to 50–65% (from 65–85%); Galafold 10–15% maintained; non-GAAP OpEx raised to $380–400M to include $30M DMX-200 upfront. GAAP profitability still expected in H2 2025 .
- Portfolio catalyst: Exclusive U.S. license for DMX-200 (Phase 3 in FSGS) with modest upfront ($30M) and success-based milestones; FDA alignment on proteinuria as primary endpoint supports de-risked path .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong underlying demand: Galafold patient demand grew 14% YoY and reached ~69% share of treated amenable patients; U.S. Galafold up 18% with record patient counts in Australia .
- Pombiliti + Opfolda momentum: +92% growth at CER; net new patients and prescriber depth increased; first patients started in newly reimbursed markets (Sweden, Switzerland), with Italy, Czech Republic, Portugal, Netherlands ramping in Q2 .
- Strategic expansion: In-licensed DMX-200 U.S. rights; FDA aligned on proteinuria primary endpoint; transaction structured with tiered royalties and success-based milestones .
Management quotes:
- “While some unexpected factors impacted revenue in the quarter, the key performance indicators for both products are very strong and we remain on-track to achieve GAAP profitability during the second half of 2025.” — Bradley Campbell, CEO .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue miss vs Street: Reported net sales $125.2M vs consensus $136.3M, driven by ex-U.S. order timing and higher-than-anticipated UK VPAG rebate (industry guidance 12–15% vs actual 22%) *.
- Pombiliti + Opfolda guidance reduced: Patient starts in new launch countries shifted right; VPAG headwind in UK; growth guidance lowered to 50–65% at CER for 2025 .
- Currency and FX sensitivity: ~60% ex-U.S. revenue; 1% USD move ≈ ~$4M revenue impact, adding volatility to reported results .
Financial Results
Revenue, EPS, Margins (comparisons vs prior quarters and YoY)
Notes: Gross margin % computed from gross profit/net sales. Q4 2024 gross margin disclosed at ~90% for full-year 2024, and mid-80s expected in 2025 as PomOp COGS phase-in begins .
Segment Revenue Breakdown
KPIs
Margins YoY
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We have delivered yet another quarter of strong double-digit revenue growth… we reiterated that we are on track to achieve GAAP profitability in the second half this year.” — Bradley Campbell, CEO .
- “Galafold revenue reached $104.2M, up 6% at CER… new patient starts globally up 14% in the quarter.” — Sébastien Martel, Chief Business Officer .
- “We do not expect a material impact to our business operations this year [from tariffs]… announcing manufacturing with Sharp Sterile in the U.S.” — Sébastien Martel .
- “DMX-200… FDA alignment on proteinuria as a primary endpoint for approval… Phase III enrollment at 185 of 286 patients.” — Jeffrey Castelli, Chief Development Officer .
Q&A Highlights
- UK VPAG rebate surprise: Industry guided 12–15% but settled at 22%, creating an in-quarter and full-year headwind; Galafold expected to offset via demand; Pom-Op guidance adjusted accordingly .
- Netherlands impact: First-position selection for adults with LOPD (~150+ patients), but a single-center bottleneck will push starts into Q2–H2; Sweden also first-position with broad uptake .
- U.S. Pom-Op switches: Acceleration observed in April (best month for new commercial starts); majority of switches from Nexviazyme as patients reach ~2-year window .
- DMX-200 differentiation: Downstream CCR2 signaling blockade avoids MCP-1 rebound; FDA aligned on proteinuria for full approval; interim analysis timeline tied to PARASOL dataset work (3–6 months) and subsequent FDA meeting .
- FX policy: No hedging program; ±1% USD move ≈ ~$4M revenue impact, highlighting reporting volatility .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications:
- Revenue miss driven by ex-U.S. order timing and UK VPAG; sequential cadence expected to improve as new markets ramp in H2 .
- EPS beat reflects high gross margin and disciplined OpEx; non-GAAP profitability achieved despite GAAP loss .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Demand indicators strong for both assets; expect sequential acceleration as Netherlands and other EU markets ramp, and U.S. switches increase into H2 — set up for back-half weighted year .
- Guidance reset appears prudent: lower total and Pom-Op growth reflect timing and VPAG; watch Q2 patient starts and April trends to confirm reacceleration .
- DMX-200 adds late-stage optionality with FDA-aligned endpoint; modest upfront limits balance sheet risk; monitor interim analysis and enrollment pace .
- Margin durability remains high; 2025 mid-80s gross margin guided as Pom-Op COGS phases in; GAAP profitability in H2 still intact — potential valuation inflection .
- FX remains a swing factor with ~60% ex-U.S. exposure; consider CER context when modeling reported results .
- Near-term trading: Expect focus on VPAG headwind vs April/2H demand signals; beats/misses likely driven by cadence of EU launches and U.S. switch dynamics .
- Medium-term thesis: Two commercial assets with expanding labels/geographies and a de-risked renal asset underpin double-digit growth path to ~$1B total sales by 2028 .