FI
FORMFACTOR INC (FORM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 revenue of $0.203B, non-GAAP gross margin of 41.0%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 all exceeded the midpoint of guidance and improved sequentially; GAAP gross margin rose 250 bps QoQ to 39.8% .
- Results beat Street consensus: revenue beat by ~$2.7M* and EPS beat by ~$0.08*, while EBITDA was below consensus*; management guided Q4 to further sequential improvement in revenue ($210M ±$5M), non-GAAP GM (42% ±150 bps), and non-GAAP EPS ($0.35 ±$0.04) .
- DRAM probe cards set a record, driven by HBM; HBM4 crossover underway, with Q3 HBM revenue at “around $40M,” and non-HBM DRAM expected to drive Q4 growth .
- Profitability improvement program is driving margin gains (labor reductions, overtime changes, manufacturing cost actions); tariffs still weigh ~150–200 bps on GM, but mitigation efforts continue .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- DRAM probe cards delivered expected double-digit sequential growth to a new record, primarily from HBM; “we expect to post another record” in Q4 with non-HBM applications (DDR5, LPDDR4) .
- Systems segment revenue increased as expected, with momentum towards initial volume production of co-packaged optics; multiple Triton systems were installed for silicon photonics test .
- Margin improvement actions delivered a 250 bps QoQ increase in GAAP GM and 250 bps QoQ increase in non-GAAP GM; management reiterated commitment to reaching a 47% non-GAAP GM target model: “we’re focused…to the 47%…gross margins” .
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What Went Wrong
- Foundry and Logic probecard demand was weaker sequentially; CPU probecard demand remained muted as customers leveraged legacy node fleets rather than new leading-edge ramps .
- EBITDA underperformed Street consensus* despite revenue and EPS beats, reflecting mix and continued cost headwinds including tariffs (~150–200 bps GM impact) .
- A large CPU customer fell below the 10% revenue threshold in Q3, highlighting near-term concentration risk and the importance of diversifying/qualifying at other CPU/GPU customers .
Financial Results
Segment and KPIs
- Segment Margin (Non-GAAP): Probecard 40.8%; Systems 42.0% .
- HBM Revenue: “in round numbers, $40M” in Q3 .
- Cash and Equivalents: $97.678M; Marketable Securities: $168.351M .
Guidance Changes
Q3 2025 Guidance vs Actuals (context)
- Q3 guidance midpoints: Revenue $200M, Non-GAAP GM 40%, Non-GAAP EPS $0.25 .
- Q3 actuals: Revenue $202.7M, Non-GAAP GM 41.0%, Non-GAAP EPS $0.33—beat across all three .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO on margin focus: “we’re focused on…improving our profitability to get back on a path to the 47% non-GAAP gross margins of our target model” .
- CFO on actions: “we just completed a reduction in headcount…implemented changes in how we manage overtime…expanded…precious metal recovery…targeted decreases in manufacturing spending” .
- Tariff impacts: “we continue to see a 150 to 200 basis point impact in gross margins from tariffs…taking actions to mitigate” .
- HBM specifics: “HBM…in round numbers, $40M in the quarter…HBM4 takes over as the majority…expect continued growth” .
- Systems/CPO: “installed multiple units of our next-generation Triton…bringing…optical and electrical probe and test capability…transition…from the lab to the fab” .
Q&A Highlights
- HBM4 crossover and test intensity tailwinds (higher stacks, faster I/O) should increase probecard intensity; FormFactor’s SmartMatrix architecture validated at 10+ Gbps .
- CPU weakness: a large CPU customer dropped below 10% revenue in Q3; near-term PC sector soft, but qualification efforts underway across major CPU/GPU customers for 2026 .
- Margin drivers: mix, volume, and cost actions all contributed; volume was the minority; restructuring benefits ~$1M in Q4 and ~$1.5M thereafter .
- CPO milestone path: pilot production ongoing; Triton systems installed; external product launches expected early–mid next year as potential catalysts .
- Networking silicon opportunity: growing importance in data centers; FormFactor positioned to leverage advanced MEMS capabilities as requirements converge with GPU-level specs .
Estimates Context
Q3 2025 Actuals vs Street Consensus
Q4 2025 Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
FY Consensus Snapshot
Interpretation: Revenue/EPS beats in Q3 likely support modest upward estimate revisions for near-term non-GAAP profitability; EBITDA shortfall may temper magnitude of upward revisions.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Margin momentum is credible: immediate cost actions plus structural initiatives (automation, yield/cycle-time, Farmers Branch facility) are driving sequential GM gains with a path to 47% non-GAAP GM in 2026 .
- HBM remains a core growth engine: HBM4 crossover underway; Q3 HBM ~$40M; Q4 HBM similar to Q3 while non-HBM DRAM (DDR5/LPDDR4) drives sequential growth .
- Diversification pipeline is critical: near-term CPU softness underscores the importance of securing qualifications across major CPU/GPU customers; GPU Apollo MEMS pilot sets up H1 2026 volume opportunity .
- Systems/CPO optionality: Triton deployments and pilot-to-volume trajectory can add incremental growth; watch for early–mid next-year product launch catalysts .
- Tariffs remain a headwind (~150–200 bps GM), but mitigation is underway; investors should monitor risk around policy changes and export controls, especially for China-related advanced nodes .
- Liquidity and cash generation improved: operating cash flow rebounded to $27.0M; FCF positive at $19.7M; cash and marketable securities total $266.0M, supporting capacity investment and margin initiatives .
- Near-term trading: evidence of execution (beats, rising margins, Q4 guide higher) plus HBM narrative can be catalysts; watch commentary on Foundry/Logic and any updates on GPU/CPU qualifications to gauge 2026 earnings power .