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Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered record results: Gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) $589.2M (+61% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $292.1M (+56% YoY), and volume $54.7B (+26% YoY); GAAP diluted EPS $0.17 and Non-GAAP EPS $1.47 .
  • On S&P Global consensus, EPS was in-line ($1.47 vs $1.478*), revenue slightly missed ($1.1769B vs $1.1806B*) and EBITDA missed on SPGI basis ($251.8M vs $286.8M*), while company Adjusted EBITDA beat its guidance midpoint ($292.1M vs ~$290M*) .
  • Management reaffirmed and narrowed FY25 guidance: volume $207–$210B, GRLNF $1.98–$2.02B, Adjusted EBITDA $970–$985M, and 50%+ adjusted FCF conversion .
  • Strategic catalysts: first-quarter Global Blue contribution ($156M GRLNF, $68M EBITDA), stable blended spread at 62 bps, and a new $1B buyback authorization to capitalize on perceived valuation dislocation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Stable pricing/unit economics: “blended net spreads remain stable at 62 basis points” and expected to remain >60 bps for FY25 .
    • Global Blue accretive from day one: “Global Blue contributed $156M to GRLNF and $68M to EBITDA…in line with expectations despite APAC headwinds” .
    • Commercial momentum across verticals and geographies: wins at Nobu, Hyatt Vacation Club (20+ resorts), Hertz (60 locations), Cincinnati Bengals and multiple universities; “we are taking category-leading products into new markets” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Same-store volatility in core U.S. verticals: restaurants/hospitality ranged from +1% to -4% week-to-week late Q3/early Q4, prompting caution in guidance ranges .
    • APAC luxury softness and FX demand impacts: Global Blue SiS down -11% in Asia, with Europe +13% and overall +5% YoY; currency pairs affected both translation and demand .
    • Higher interest burden and GAAP optics: GAAP diluted EPS $0.17 and net income $33.4M amid elevated interest expense ($60.8M), even as non-GAAP EPS reached $1.47 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Volume ($B)$43.5 $50.0 $54.7
Gross Revenue ($M)$909.2 $966.2 $1,176.9
Network Fees ($M)$544.1 $552.8 $587.7
Gross Revenue Less Network Fees (GRLNF) ($M)$365.1 $413.4 $589.2
Gross Profit ($M)$253.2 $275.1 $409.6
EBITDA ($M)$(122.4) $164.3 $228.9
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$187.4 $205.1 $292.1
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)51% 50% 50%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.74 $0.32 $0.17
Non-GAAP EPS ($)$1.39 $1.10 $1.47
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($M)$142.5 $141.9 $171.8
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)$110.6 $117.6 $141.0

Revenue Composition

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Payments-based Revenue ($M)$806.8 $868.5 $1,058.0
Subscription & Other Revenue ($M)$102.4 $97.7 $118.9

Estimates vs Actual (S&P Global)

MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 Actual
Primary EPS ($)$1.478*$1.47*
Revenue ($M)$1,180.6*$1,176.9*
EBITDA ($M)$286.8*$251.8*
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Mid ($M)$290.0*$290.0*

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key KPIs and Growth

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Blended Spread (bps)63 62 62
Volume YoY Growth (%)+26% +25% +26%
GRLNF YoY Growth (%)+61% +29% +61%
Installed & Activated Volume ($B)——$6
Backlog ($B)$33 —$35+

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Volume ($B)FY 2025$200–$220B $207–$210B Narrowed/raised low end
GRLNF ($B)FY 2025$1.965–$2.035B $1.98–$2.02B Narrowed (maintained midpoint)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$965–$990M $970–$985M Narrowed (midpoint slightly up)
Adjusted FCF Conversion (%)FY 202550%+ 50%+ Maintained
GRLNF ($M)Q4 2025$610–$640 $610–$640 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q4 2025$305–$315 $305–$315 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025 (Prior-2)Q2 2025 (Prior-1)Q3 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesEmphasized product-led growth; >1,200 integrations; SkyTab Air launch plan Noted potential of AI to enhance operating leverage and decisions “Encouraged by potential of AI” to drive operating leverage across ops and product Increasing focus on AI leverage
Macro/same-store salesStable trends; restaurants flat to -2%, hotels -2% to +2% Stable but cautious; guidance bridge accounts for uncertainty Volatility increased late Q3/early Q4; SSS +1% to -4% week-to-week More cautious tone
International expansionOperating in 6 continents; 1,000+ restaurants/month internationally Ramping in Europe; SmartPay pending for ANZ distribution Global Blue accelerates to 75+ countries; ANZ hotel wins; 1,300 international SMB wins/month Accelerating footprint
Product performance (Spreads)FY25 ~60 bps target; stable spreads 63 bps in Q2; Expect >60 bps FY 62 bps in Q3; Expect >60 bps FY Stable >60 bps
Regulatory/legal/share structureJared’s NASA nomination; plan to collapse super-voting shares to Class A —Reiterated NASA nomination; expects single share class and simplified TRA Simplification underway
M&A and capital allocationAnnounced Global Blue; reiterated revenue synergy plan ($80M by 2027) SmartPay acquisition and strong buybacks; diversified capital raise Bambora acquisition announced; divested non-core assets; $1B buyback authorization Active pipeline, buyback priority
Luxury retail (Global Blue)Deal rationale and synergies outlined Contribution H2: $300M GRLNF, $125M Adj. EBITDA; no 2025 synergy impact Q3 SiS +5% overall (EU +13%, APAC -11%); $156M GRLNF, $68M EBITDA Solid results, APAC headwinds

Management Commentary

  • “Gross revenue less network fees were $589 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $292 million…excluding Global Blue, GRLNF grew 19% YoY” — Taylor Lauber, CEO .
  • “Global Blue contributed $156 million to gross revenue less network fees and $68 million to EBITDA…” — Christopher N. Cruz, CFO .
  • “Our blended net spreads remain stable at 62 basis points…” — Christopher N. Cruz, CFO .
  • “Our board has authorized the new $1 billion stock repurchase program, which is the largest in our history.” — Taylor Lauber, CEO .
  • “For full-year 2025, we are reaffirming guidance within a narrowed range…volume $207–$210B; GRLNF $1.98–$2.02B; Adjusted EBITDA $970–$985M; 50%+ FCF conversion.” — Christopher N. Cruz, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital allocation and buybacks: Management plans immediate execution on the $1B authorization given valuation and liquidity, with net leverage ~3.2x pro forma and target not to exceed ~3.75x sustainably .
  • Same-store sales trends: Recent softness and volatility in restaurants/hospitality; offset by diversification and cross-border/luxury strength .
  • Global Blue conversion strategy: Faster SMB conversion via integrated terminal with DCC/VAT eligibility; enterprise conversions take longer but carry large volume potential .
  • Bambora (Worldline North America) gateway: ~$90B gateway volume, ACH/EFT capabilities, revenue synergy “textbook Shift4” conversion opportunity .
  • Share structure simplification: NASA nomination expected to lead to collapse to single share class; Jared remains largest shareholder .

Estimates Context

  • EPS: $1.47 actual vs $1.478 consensus — in-line on S&P Global basis*. Company Non-GAAP EPS reported $1.47 .
  • Revenue: $1.1769B vs $1.1806B consensus — slight miss on S&P Global basis*. Company gross revenue reported $1.1769B .
  • EBITDA: $251.8M vs $286.8M consensus — miss on S&P Global basis*. Company Adjusted EBITDA printed $292.1M and met/beat company guidance midpoint ($~290M*) .

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may adjust:

  • Expect modest downward revisions to SPGI EBITDA consensus given the miss on SPGI basis and management’s cautious macro tone, with spread stability and FY25 margin control supporting EPS resilience .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Diversification and spread resilience underpin earnings quality: 62 bps blended spread and 50% Adjusted EBITDA margins despite macro choppiness .
  • Global Blue is accretive and strategic: meaningful initial contribution and a large SMB-to-enterprise conversion runway; watch for 2026 payments pull-through .
  • Buyback as near-term catalyst: $1B authorization and stated intent to act “immediately” at low multiples can support per-share FCF and EPS .
  • Guidance prudence matters: narrowed FY25 ranges signal control over profitability while acknowledging volume variability; traders should key on Q4 ranges and any SSS stabilization .
  • Bambora adds gateway/ACH capabilities: a “textbook” conversion opportunity to expand customer acquisition and cross-sell across North America .
  • Watch APAC luxury and FX: EU strength offset APAC headwinds; any yen/CNY stabilization and travel normalization would be tailwinds for Global Blue .
  • 2026 setup: SmartPay, Bambora closing, and Global Blue payments synergies can re-accelerate volume and net revenue growth beyond SMB conversions .