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    Shift4 Payments (FOUR)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 7, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$125.66Last close (Feb 18, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$115.00Open (Feb 19, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-10.66(-8.48%)
    • Record Financial Performance and Strong Growth: Shift4 delivered record results in Q4 2024 across all major KPIs, including end-to-end volumes increasing by 49% year-over-year to $47.9 billion , gross revenue less network fees increasing by 50% to $405 million , adjusted EBITDA increasing by 51% to $205.9 million , and adjusted free cash flow increasing by 78% to $134 million. The company also provided strong 2025 guidance, expecting volumes between $200 billion and $220 billion, representing 21% to 33% year-over-year growth , gross revenue less network fees between $1.65 billion and $1.72 billion, representing 22% to 27% growth , and adjusted EBITDA between $830 million and $855 million, representing 23% to 26% growth.
    • Strategic Acquisition of Global Blue: Shift4 announced the acquisition of Global Blue for approximately $2.5 billion in an all-cash transaction. Global Blue is a market-leading payment platform supporting tens of thousands of luxury brands worldwide, operating a two-sided network that offers over 15 million consumers quick and efficient VAT tax refunds. This acquisition is expected to unlock over $80 million of revenue synergies by the end of 2027 , with an aggregate embedded payment opportunity of over $500 billion, increasing Shift4's cumulative cross-sell funnel to over $1.4 trillion.
    • Expansion into New Markets and Winning Significant Customers: Shift4 continues to expand internationally, processing across Latin America and planning to launch an additional 4 to 6 countries this quarter, with Australia and New Zealand on the horizon for early 2025. The company has signed significant new customers in hospitality, including Alterra Mountain resorts, operator of 19 ski resorts, and renewed agreements with Great Wolf Lodge and The Meritage Collection. In sports and entertainment, Shift4 signed deals with House of Blues, Arizona Diamondbacks, Portland Trail Blazers, and cross-sold ticketing to the New York Yankees and Dallas Mavericks. Additionally, the company is experiencing record growth in the nonprofit sector, with Q4 year-over-year volumes up 660%, and calendar year volumes up 319% year-over-year.
    • CEO Jared Isaacman is stepping down, which may introduce leadership uncertainty and impact the company's future strategic direction.
    • The acquisition of Global Blue for approximately $2.5 billion in an all-cash transaction will increase net leverage to 3.6x upon closing, raising concerns about the company's debt levels and financial stability.
    • Integration risks associated with the largest acquisition in the company's history could affect operational efficiency and delay synergy realization.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +26% (from $705.4M to $887M)

    Revenue growth in Q4 2024 was driven by expansion in both core payment activities and SaaS/subscription revenues, reflecting a strong increase in end‐to‐end payment volumes and the benefits of recent acquisitions that supported overall revenue expansion.

    Payment-Based Revenue

    Implicit growth; represents 87% of total revenue

    Payment-based revenue of $772.4M in Q4 2024 underscores the company’s sustained focus on transaction volume growth, which has been bolstered by onboarding larger merchants despite lower unit pricing, consistent with previous period dynamics.

    Subscription & Other Revenue

    (Contributing to overall revenue; $114.6M)

    Subscription & Other revenues reached $114.6M, reflecting improvements from higher SaaS fee adoption and acquisition-related legacy streams, continuing the trend seen in earlier quarters where such initiatives drove significant growth.

    Operating Income

    +213% (from $27.4M to $86M)

    Operating income more than tripled YoY, mainly due to strong revenue growth and effective cost management that outpaced expense increases, thereby significantly improving operating margins compared to the previous period.

    Net Income

    +600%+ (from $19.2M to $139.3M)

    The dramatic net income improvement was fueled by the robust operating performance combined with significant non-recurring tax benefits and adjustments (e.g., from valuation allowance releases), which contrast starkly with the relatively modest net income levels of the previous period.

    Basic EPS

    +700% (from $0.21 to $1.68)

    Basic EPS surged due to the combination of markedly higher net income and managed dilution effects from share count increases, reflecting the improved profitability and effective financial management in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023.

    Interest Expense

    +240% (from $8.0M to $27.3M)

    Interest expense jumped as a result of increased financing costs from the issuance of the 6.750% Senior Notes due 2032, signifying a higher debt service obligation moving forward even as the company experiences robust revenue and profit growth.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Volume

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $200 billion to $220 billion; 21% to 33% year-over-year growth

    no prior guidance

    Gross Revenue Less Network Fees

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $1.65 billion to $1.72 billion; 22% to 27% growth

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $830 million to $855 million; 23% to 26% growth

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Greater than 50%

    no prior guidance

    Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margins

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Approximately 45%

    no prior guidance

    Seasonal Strength

    Q4 2024

    no prior guidance

    Strongest seasonal performance expected in verticals like stadiums, ticketing, and major enterprise ski resorts

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    International Expansion
    FY 2024
    10,000 international hotel and restaurant goal for 2024
    Fell short of the 10,000 goal
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Financial Performance and Growth Metrics

    Q1–Q3 earnings calls consistently highlighted robust growth, including strong end‐to-end payment volume growth, expanding EBITDA margins, and rapid increases in subscription revenue.

    Q4 earnings emphasized even stronger performance with 49% YoY growth in payment volumes, 100% increases in subscription revenue, and record free cash flow, underlining a highly positive financial narrative.

    Consistent and strengthening performance across periods.

    Contracted Volume Backlog and Future Growth Prospects

    Q1–Q3 discussed a robust contracted volume backlog and clear visibility into future growth prospects, with detailed metrics on backlog conversion and cross‐sell opportunities ( in Q1, in Q2, in Q3).

    In Q4, there was no explicit discussion of the contracted volume backlog; the focus shifted to growth guidance for 2025 rather than detailing existing backlog figures.

    Backlog details have diminished, though future growth prospects remain positive.

    Strategic Acquisitions and Integration Risks

    Throughout Q1–Q3, executives emphasized the benefits of acquisitions such as Revel, Vectron, and Givex, discussing their integration playbook, temporary margin impacts, and cross‐sell opportunities ( in Q1, in Q2, in Q3).

    Q4 placed significant emphasis on the acquisition of Global Blue – a high‐value, all‐cash deal – detailing its revenue synergies and integration strategy while acknowledging short-term leverage effects.

    Increasing strategic emphasis on larger acquisitions with a more detailed integration plan.

    International Expansion and Market Penetration

    Q1 through Q3 consistently described expansion into Canada, Europe, Africa, and new verticals, with numerous international wins and product localization efforts ( in Q1, in Q2, in Q3).

    Q4 highlighted further international progress by launching operations in Latin America and planning new country launches in Australia and New Zealand, reinforcing a broadening global footprint.

    Enhanced scope and geographic reach, with a clear acceleration of international initiatives.

    Same-Store Sales and Consumer Spending Trends

    In Q1, same‐store sales were reported as roughly flat; Q2 and Q3 detailed softening consumer spending and modest declines (e.g., roughly 3% YoY decline in restaurants).

    Q4’s earnings call did not mention same‐store sales or detailed consumer spending trends, omitting a topic that was previously discussed [documents].

    No longer mentioned in Q4, suggesting a shift away from discussing this challenge.

    Leadership Transition and CEO Change

    No discussion of leadership or CEO changes was noted in Q1, Q2, or Q3 earnings calls.

    Q4 marked a significant leadership transition with CEO Jared Isaacman announcing his departure and a handover to Taylor Lauber, a development that carries potential strategic and cultural impact.

    Newly introduced topic with potential for large future impact.

    Increased Debt Levels and Financial Leverage Concerns

    Q1 emphasized a strong balance sheet with manageable leverage; Q2 illustrated a declining leverage profile and Q3 noted bond issuances and enhanced capital structure measures.

    Q4 discussed increased leverage due to the Global Blue acquisition, with short‐term bridge financing raising pro forma net leverage, though strong free cash flow was highlighted to manage the load.

    Evolving dynamics with elevated short‐term leverage amid strong cash flow management.

    Early Valuation and Organic Growth Expectations

    Q1 and Q3 discussed organic growth targets (around 25%) and provided updates on valuation improvements relative to high-growth peers, reflecting confidence in organic growth potential ( in Q1, in Q3).

    Q4 did not include any discussion of early valuation or organic growth expectations, indicating a pivot away from these topics in the latest commentary [documents].

    No longer mentioned in Q4, representing a reduced focus on valuation discussions.

    Disruption of Acquired Companies' Revenue Models

    In Q1–Q3, executives explained how they deliberately disrupted legacy revenue models in acquired companies to pivot toward Shift4’s bundled solutions, even noting short-term revenue dips for long-term recurring gains ( in Q1, in Q2, in Q3).

    No discussion on the disruption of acquired companies’ revenue models appeared in Q4, leaving the concept out of the current narrative [documents].

    Topic no longer mentioned in Q4, suggesting integration efforts may be maturing or taken for granted.

    Macroeconomic Downturn and Recession Risks

    Q1 acknowledged modest consumer spending uncertainty, Q2 presented detailed commentary on recession risks and strategies to mitigate them, and Q3 noted softening spending in specific verticals ( in Q1, in Q2, in Q3).

    Q4 made only a brief, indirect reference to challenging economic conditions (e.g. inflation and interest rate pressures), without an in-depth discussion of downturn or recession risks.

    Reduced emphasis in Q4, indicating a potential shift toward focusing on execution rather than macro threats.

    Research analysts covering Shift4 Payments.