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Fox Corp (FOXA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 FY25 delivered strong top-line growth on Super Bowl and Tubi strength: revenue rose 27% to $4.37B; adjusted EPS was $1.10 and adjusted EBITDA $856M, with EBITDA down YoY as Super Bowl rights/production costs offset revenue gains .
  • Revenue and adjusted EPS beat S&P Global consensus: $4.37B vs $4.17B estimate and $1.10 vs $0.90 estimate; GAAP EPS was $0.75 as non‑operating items and restructuring reduced GAAP profit versus adjusted figures (consensus from S&P Global)*.
  • Television ad revenue jumped 77% on Super Bowl LIX and continued Tubi momentum; Cable Networks grew 11% with 26% cable ad growth on stronger FOX News ratings and digital advertising .
  • Record free cash flow and a robust balance sheet underpin capital returns; $250M share repurchased in the quarter (remaining authorization $650M), cash $4.8B at 3/31, and $600M debt maturity repaid in April .
  • Strategic catalysts: FOX 1 direct‑to‑consumer service targeted to launch before football season; priced at wholesale levels, aimed at “cordless” households, and expected to bundle with partners while minimizing bundle cannibalization .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Super Bowl execution and monetization: Super Bowl LIX generated over $800M of gross advertising revenue across national and local, helping drive total company ad growth of 65% and a most‑watched telecast record at 128M viewers; “we delivered across‑the‑board milestones” (L. Murdoch) .
  • Tubi acceleration and platform reach: Tubi revenue grew 35% YoY, total view time up 24% YoY in April, and 8M new registered viewers around the Super Bowl, demonstrating sustained engagement and improving monetization .
  • FOX News momentum and advertiser mix: FOX News had one of the highest‑rated quarters in cable news history; total day audience +48% (viewers) and +58% (demo), with >200 new national advertisers since the election and scatter pricing >50% above upfront .

What Went Wrong

  • EBITDA compression despite revenue growth: Adjusted EBITDA fell to $856M vs $891M YoY as higher sports rights amortization/production costs for the Super Bowl and higher digital content/marketing outweighed revenue gains .
  • Television segment margin pressure: Television EBITDA declined to $60M from $145M YoY due to Super Bowl costs and continued digital investment at Tubi, despite 40% revenue growth .
  • GAAP EPS down YoY: GAAP EPS fell to $0.75 from $1.40 due to non‑operating items and higher restructuring/other corporate matters; adjusted EPS was stable ($1.10 vs $1.09) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Quarters

MetricQ1 FY25 (Sep 2024)Q2 FY25 (Dec 2024)Q3 FY25 (Mar 2025)
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.56 $5.08 $4.37
GAAP EPS ($)$1.78 $0.81 $0.75
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.45 $0.96 $1.10
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.05 $0.78 $0.86

Q3 FY25 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Wall Street)

MetricQ3 FY25 ActualQ3 FY25 ConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Billions)$4.371 $4.170*+$0.201B / +4.8%*
Adjusted/Primary EPS ($)$1.10 $0.90*+$0.20 / +22%*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ2 FY25 Revenue ($MM)Q2 FY25 EBITDA ($MM)Q3 FY25 Revenue ($MM)Q3 FY25 EBITDA ($MM)
Cable Network Programming$2,165 $657 $1,636 $878
Television$2,961 $205 $2,704 $60
Corporate & Other$58 $(81) $58 $(82)
Eliminations$(106) —$(27) —
Total$5,078 $781 $4,371 $856

Q3 FY25 Revenue Mix and Drivers (YoY)

CategoryQ3 FY25 ($MM)YoY ChangeCommentary
Affiliate fees$2,005 +3% Higher rates at both segments; sub declines improving .
Advertising$2,036 +65% Super Bowl LIX, Tubi digital growth, stronger news pricing/ratings .
Other$330 +20% Higher sports sublicensing revenue .

Selected KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ3 FY25Prior Detail
Super Bowl gross ad revenue>$800M (companywide) Record for network and local stations .
Tubi revenue growth+35% YoY TVT +24% YoY in April; 8M new registered viewers around Super Bowl .
FOX News ratingsTotal day viewers +48%, demo +58% YoY Prime time share ~60% range in April .
Free cash flowRecord quarterly >$1.9B Seasonally strong working capital reversal in H2 .
Share repurchases$250M in Q3; $650M authorization remaining Cumulative $6.35B (Class A + B) through 3/31/25 .
Cash / Debt (quarter‑end)Cash $4.815B; Debt $7.2B (post‑quarter, $600M repaid) Cash rose Q/Q; $600M maturity repaid in April .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Formal Revenue/EPS/EBITDA guidanceFY25/FY26None disclosedNone disclosedMaintained: Company does not provide quantitative guidance in release/call .
DividendSemiannual$0.27 per share declared in Q2 FY25 No update in Q3 materialsMaintained last stated level .
Share repurchaseOngoing$7B authorization; $900M remaining at 12/31/24 $650M remaining at 3/31/25; plan to utilize full authorization Ongoing deployment.
DebtApril 2025 maturity$600M due$600M repaid post‑quarter De‑risked near‑term maturity.
D2C: FOX 1Launch timing and marketPreviously targeted by year‑end Launch “before the football season” (Fall 2025); pricing in line with wholesale, aimed at cordless; bundles with partners Pulled into pre‑season window; strategic positioning clarified.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 FY25 (Nov)Q2 FY25 (Feb)Q3 FY25 (May)Trend
D2C/FOX 1Evaluating D2C; bundle-friendly stance D2C targeted by year‑end; low incremental rights cost; protect bundle FOX 1 before football season; wholesale pricing; bundles; target cordless Increasing specificity and acceleration.
Tubi performance/investmentGrowth driver; higher costs +31% ad growth; Super Bowl stream for acquisition; digital losses trending down +35% revenue; TVT +24% in April; investment elevated in Q3 around SB, moderating in Q4 Accelerating growth; investment managed.
Advertising environmentPolitical/news strength Broad-based strength; record political; strong sports pricing Scatter above upfronts; Super Bowl record; FOX News scatter +50% vs upfront Strength sustained.
Affiliate fees/sub trends+6% in Q1; renewals ongoing +6%; renewals completed; sub declines improving to ~7% +3% in Q3; sub erosion improved to ~6.5% Gradual improvement.
Sports events/rights costSummer of Soccer; NFL windows NFL postseason, MLB postseason; Venue shelved Super Bowl LIX; rights/production costs compressed margins Event‑driven volatility in margins.
Regulatory/legal—Venue legal distractions; skinny bundles positive FCC reverse retrans Q addressed; market‑based negotiations supported Monitoring, supportive of market solutions.
FanDuel option—Licensing across 26 states; option in‑the‑money ~$2.8B Timeline reiterated; licensing underway through 2030 Progressing licensing plan.

Management Commentary

  • “Our financial performance, highlighted by record free cash flow, once again illustrates the strength of the FOX platform.” — Lachlan Murdoch .
  • “Super Bowl LIX… generated over $800 million of gross advertising revenue across our businesses… the most watched telecast in U.S. history.” — Lachlan Murdoch .
  • “Quarterly adjusted EBITDA was $856 million… offset by higher sports rights amortization and production costs associated with our broadcast of the Super Bowl.” — Steve Tomsic .
  • “FOX 1 is on track to launch before the football season… pricing will be in line with our wholesale pricing… targeted entirely to the cordless market.” — Lachlan Murdoch .
  • “We have repurchased… approximately 30% of our total shares outstanding since launch of the buyback… ended the quarter with approximately $4.8 billion in cash and $7.2 billion in debt; since quarter end, we repaid our $600 million debt maturity.” — Steve Tomsic .

Q&A Highlights

  • FOX 1 strategy: Pricing at wholesale levels; focused on “cordless” audience to avoid cannibalizing pay‑TV; will partner in bundles; existing pay‑TV subs will be able to authenticate for FOX 1 access .
  • FY26 framing: Political tailwind falls off; Super Bowl cost headwind goes away; FIFA late FY26/FY27; tailwinds from news and Tubi; investment pacing between Tubi and D2C is the swing factor (Steve Tomsic) .
  • FOX News advertiser mix: >200 new advertisers since the election; DR up >30%; scatter pricing >50% above upfront; momentum continuing .
  • Tubi path to profitability: Continued investment but improving financials; April acceleration; digital investment envelope expected to shrink in Q4; profitability “sooner rather than later” per plan .
  • FanDuel option: Licensing underway across 26 states; option (18.6%) intrinsic value ~ $2.8B vs strike; not timing‑driven by 5% strike accretion, focus on licensing completion (Steve Tomsic) .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 FY25 beats: Revenue $4.371B vs $4.170B estimate; Primary/Adjusted EPS $1.10 vs $0.90 estimate (S&P Global consensus)*.
  • Prior quarters: Q2 FY25 actual revenue $5.078B vs $4.319B estimate; EPS $0.96 vs $1.00 estimate (beat on revenue, modest EPS miss/inline depending methodology, S&P Global “Primary EPS”). Q1 FY26 (next quarter) consensus baseline shows continued beats on both lines as reported subsequently (context only).
  • Implications: Street may need to lift Tubi and FOX News ad trajectories and reassess Television segment margins ex‑Super Bowl; full‑year profitability cadence still seasonally back‑half weighted per FCF patterns .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Super Bowl‑driven outperformance plus Tubi acceleration produced a top‑line beat and adjusted EPS beat; near‑term margin drag was event‑specific (Super Bowl costs), not structural .
  • Advertising remains robust across News, Sports, and Tubi with scatter above upfronts and expanding brand advertiser mix at FOX News—a positive for 2H pacing .
  • FOX 1 D2C launch before football season is a tangible catalyst; wholesale‑level pricing and bundle‑friendly design should mitigate affiliate cannibalization risk .
  • Balance sheet capacity (cash ~$4.8B, post‑quarter debt paydown) supports continued buybacks (remaining $650M authorization) and strategic optionality, including FanDuel option monetization path .
  • Expect estimate revisions to raise ad/Tubi revenue and trim event‑driven cost assumptions; Television segment margins should normalize post‑Super Bowl .
  • Watch for Q4 pacing: sports schedule (NASCAR, IndyCar launch, MLB start), upfront outcomes, and any D2C FOX 1 bundling announcements as potential stock catalysts .
  • Medium‑term: Improving sub‑trend (sub erosion moderating to ~6.5%) and skinny bundles inclusion support affiliate stability; News leadership and Tubi scale remain core pillars .
Notes on sources: All company results, segment details, and quotations are from Fox Corporation’s Q3 FY25 8‑K earnings release and earnings call transcript, and prior two quarters’ 8‑Ks and transcripts as cited. S&P Global consensus data marked with *.