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    Fox (FOXA)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$36.36Last close (Aug 5, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$36.86Open (Aug 6, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.50(+1.38%)
    • Fox Corporation is experiencing an 8% decline in subscribers, which may limit future affiliate fee growth as pricing increases are only modestly above this decline rate.
    • Cost savings from shifting to unscripted programming in fiscal 2024, which saved over $100 million, are not expected to continue in fiscal 2025, potentially leading to increased content costs and impacting margins.
    • Investments in new ventures like Venue Sports are expected to be cash flow negative initially, taking time to break even, which may impact Fox's earnings due to deficits recorded through equity earnings.
    1. Affiliate Fees Growth
      Q: Can you keep growing affiliate fees in fiscal '25?
      A: We expect to modestly grow affiliate fees despite an ~8% subscriber decline by increasing pricing modestly above that figure. This is based on focusing on our core brands without legacy channel baggage, allowing us to drive appropriate value for our cable brands and retransmission.

    2. Content Spend and Margins
      Q: How should investors think about content spend levels?
      A: In fiscal '25, sports rights costs will increase due to regular amortization, with the NFL being the largest, partially offset by moving away from WWE. Tubi's content spend will continue to grow, while news will see modest growth. After saving over $100 million in fiscal '24 due to the shift from scripted to unscripted programming during the strike, we expect entertainment content spend to swing back slightly towards scripted content. Overall, the cost per hour in entertainment will be down 10–15% compared to fiscal '23.

    3. Advertising Revenue and Political Spending
      Q: What's the outlook for ad market and political spending?
      A: We achieved strong pricing and volume increases in the upfront, exceeding expectations, led by sports—including football and Major League Baseball—and Fox News. The direct response marketplace saw pricing up in the high teens. We expect a record political ad cycle this year (excluding the Georgia runoff from four years ago), with significant spending emerging in markets like Atlanta and Phoenix as races tighten.

    4. Tubi's Performance Outlook
      Q: Tell us about Tubi's growth amid competition.
      A: Tubi's revenue grew in the mid- to upper-teens exiting the fourth quarter, and this momentum continues into the current quarter. Despite increased competition from streamers dropping prices, Tubi maintained sustainable pricing and drove growth through its strong brand, tremendous reach, and quality audience. Investment in Tubi remained around the mid-$200 million range in fiscal '24, and we expect slightly less investment in fiscal '25, putting net investment across our growth businesses in the high $200 million range.

    5. Capital Deployment and M&A Plans
      Q: Where do you expect to deploy capital next?
      A: We are careful and prudent in capital deployment, balancing investments in our businesses, shareholder returns, and an increasing focus on M&A. While we have nothing new to announce, we recognize that M&A remains one of the important levers we have and will act prudently and carefully in exploring opportunities.

    6. Ad Sales Team Approach
      Q: Is your ad sales team doing anything differently?
      A: Our ad sales team, led by Jeff Collins, has done a tremendous job. We retain expertise across verticals—sports, news, entertainment, and digital (Tubi). During the upfront, we sold across our entire ONE FOX portfolio, which proved very successful and effective, surpassing our expectations and leveraging our marquee events like Super Bowl 59.

    7. Launch of 'Venue' and Financial Impact
      Q: Thoughts on 'Venue' launch and its fiscal '25 impact?
      A: 'Venue' is launching later this month at an initial price of $42.99, offering a revolutionary way for Americans to view sports. We aim for 5 million subscribers over five years, targeting cord cutters and cord nevers not currently in the cable bundle. Financially, as shareholders, we'll take the deficit through equity earnings and investment through cash flow. As a content supplier, we'll benefit from affiliate fee revenues in cable and TV. On a net-net basis, it should be accretive to us on a pretty quick basis.

    Research analysts covering Fox.