Five Point - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 delivered consolidated net income of $60.6M, exceeding management’s prior internal guidance by ~$10M, with cash of $528.3M and total liquidity of $653.3M; Great Park recorded $278.9M of homesite sales at high margins and distributions/incentive payments to FPH of $143.3M.
• Management maintained full-year guidance at “just under $200M” consolidated net income and guided Q2 net income to “just under $10M”, with earnings weighted to Q4; S&P upgraded senior notes to B+ and corporate rating to B (stable outlook).
• No Wall Street consensus EPS/Revenue was available via S&P Global for Q1; thus, beat/miss vs Street cannot be assessed. Results were driven primarily by equity in earnings from the Great Park Venture and incentive compensation.
• Tactical catalysts: credit rating upgrades, continued strong builder demand at Great Park (233 homes sold; nine new programs totaling 572 homesites contracted for Q4 closes), and asset-light growth initiatives; debate on near-term debt paydown vs refinance persists (negative carry vs 2‑pt call premium until late year).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Great Park delivered high-margin land sales ($278.9M) and strong equity earnings; FPH exceeded internal guidance by ~$10M: “we generated stronger-than-expected net income of $60.6 million, which exceeded our guidance by roughly $10 million”.
• Liquidity strengthened: cash $528.3M; total liquidity $653.3M; net debt effectively ~0; S&P upgrades to B/B+ reinforce improving credit profile.
• Pipeline visibility: five 1H sales closed, and nine additional Great Park residential programs (572 homesites) contracted to close in Q4 at pricing consistent with recent transactions (~$11–12M per acre blended).

What Went Wrong

• Macro headwinds: tariff policy uncertainty and higher mortgage rates pressured sentiment; management observed modest declines in sales pace in recent weeks.
• Valencia early-stage constraints: only seven active programs and 69 homes sold in Q1; absorption limited until more programs open and approvals advance.
• Debt carry debate: investors challenged negative carry vs immediate paydown; company cited a 200 bps call premium on notes until late year, preferring optionality until premium rolls off.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings and welcome to the Five Point Holdings Q1 2025 conference call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Today's call may include forward-looking statements regarding Five Point's business, financial condition, operations, cash flow, strategy, and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent Five Point's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results. Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risk and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Five Point's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements. These factors include those described in today's press release and Five Point's SEC filings, including those in the risk factor section of Five Point's most recent annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC.

Please note that Five Point assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Dan Hedigan, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Dan Hedigan (President and CEO)

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our call. I have with me today Mike Alvarado, our Chief Operating Officer and Chief Legal Officer; Kim Tobler, our Chief Financial Officer; and Leo Key, our Senior Vice President of Finance and Reporting. Stuart Miller, our Executive Chairman, is joining us remotely. On today's call, I'll update you on our Q1 results and review the status of the company's current operations, including our team's focus during the quarter and our strategic priorities and expectations for the remainder of 2025. Mike will then discuss the growth element of our operating strategy, after which Kim will give you an overview of the company's financial performance and condition with updated guidance for the remainder of 2025. We will then open the line for questions.

Turning to the Q1, I'm pleased to report another successful quarter for Five Point as we continue to build a program of consistent profitability. During the quarter, we generated a stronger-than-expected net income of $60.6 million, which exceeded our guidance by roughly $10 million. Our Q1 results reflect our continued focus on generating revenue, controlling our expenses, and managing our capital spend. Here are some additional highlights from the quarter. First, our Great Park Venture closed on all four of our anticipated residential land sales. These programs included 325 home sites on approximately 23.6 acres to three different builders for an aggregate purchase price of $278.9 million. Second, as a result of the Great Park operations during the quarter, Five Point received $143.3 million as its portion of distribution and its incentive compensation payments.

Third, we finished the quarter with total liquidity of $653.3 million, comprised of cash and cash equivalents totaling $528.3 million, an increase on our cash over year-end of $97.5 million, and borrowing availability of $125 million under our unsecured revolving credit facility. Alongside our successful Q1, I'm also happy to report that we received an upgrade in our credit rating from S&P. In recognition of our consistent earnings, cash generation, and management of overhead, the company moved from B- to B with a continued stable outlook, and our senior notes were upgraded from B to B-. As we look ahead to the remainder of 2025, we recognize that we are currently navigating a challenging economic environment with market uncertainty created by shifting tariff policies, higher mortgage rates, and associated affordability issues.

Our job is to filter out the noise and stay focused on the underlying economic data at both the national and local level. While we are carefully monitoring the results reported by the national home builders and understand that several are experiencing reduced margins, our communities are located in California markets that are chronically undersupplied, primarily due to California's challenging and restrictive land use approval process. Our recently closed sales, including one this past week at the Great Park, are continuing evidence that there remains strong demand for our home sites, even with builders facing the uncertainty of current market conditions. Notwithstanding this uncertainty, we believe it is still an opportune time to move forward on the implementation of growth initiatives to complement our three existing communities. These growth initiatives will build upon the operating strategy we have been executing on for the past few years.

Mike will have a few more remarks about that strategy shortly. Let me turn briefly, however, to our current operating strategy. The key elements of the strategy are, one, we're optimizing home site value within our existing three premier master plan communities by matching home site sales to current home builder demand. Currently, home builder demand remains steady, and we continue to maximize the value of our land and maintain the margins embedded in that value. Two, we are carefully managing our fixed costs and overhead even while we pursue growth opportunities. We're also constantly looking to reduce or mitigate some of the fixed costs that come with these larger master plan communities, and we're maintaining the lean operating structure that has defined Five Point for the past few years. We're matching development expenditures with revenue generation.

Each new development area within our existing communities is analyzed from a construction phasing standpoint as we work alongside our public partners to deliver our infrastructure so that we are not deploying cash too far out in front of the needs of the development. Finally, we are seeking growth opportunities through new acquisitions, joint ventures, and strategic relationships to ensure a growing future for Five Point. Our focus will remain on these strategic elements of our operating platform as we produce recurring earnings along with sustainable long-term growth. With that said, while we know there might be some uncertainty from time to time, we remain confident in our current year expectations.

My last call indicated that we were expecting that our earnings for 2025 would exceed 2024 and that we anticipated close to $200 million in net income, with obvious caveats regarding the timing of development processes within the County of Los Angeles. We currently believe that we are on track to meet our prior guidance, while we will continue to monitor evolving market conditions as the year progresses. Kim will provide more detail on our guidance for the remainder of 2025 during his remarks. I'd like to now touch on market conditions. Although the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 100 basis points since September, recently announced tariff policies have created upward pressure on interest rates and inflation, with key mortgage interest rates moving mostly higher since the end of the quarter.

Consumer sentiment is also being negatively impacted by the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, which impacts consumer decisions on new home sales. Most of our guest builders still have the ability to facilitate sales, but we have seen a modest decline in the pace of sales over the past few weeks. Although interest rates and consumer sentiment are key data points in the housing market, Five Point's California market has generally remained chronically undersupplied, and we are actively engaged with our guest builders on new home site sales. Let me now provide you with some updates on our communities, starting with the Great Park neighborhoods. As a reminder, the Great Park is the most mature of our communities, and its ongoing contribution to our financial results reflects the benefits that we and our Great Park Venture partners are receiving from the investments made in this community in prior years.

During the Q1, builders in our Great Park community sold 233 homes versus 143 homes in Q4 2024. We currently have 15 active selling programs in the Great Park neighborhoods, with five additional programs planned to open later this year. With the existing and future planned programs, we'll be able to continue to offer a wide variety of housing options in Great Park neighborhoods. In addition to our continuing home buyer interest, we are still seeing demand from builders for our land at the Great Park. All of the five residential programs I've previously identified as expected to close in the first half of 2025 have now closed escrow, with the last sale closing one week ago. We have also completed the bidding and contracting for a group of nine new residential programs being sold to six builders totaling 572 home sites.

These builders have completed their due diligence, with the expectation that these land sales will close in the Q4 of this year. The contracted sales prices are consistent with our most recent sales. As I mentioned last quarter, the City of Irvine completed state-mandated RENA general plan and zoning updates for the Great Park planning area, which will provide the Great Park Venture with the opportunity to convert some or substantial portions of its remaining commercial land holdings to residential uses. We're continuing to study these options and are in ongoing discussion with the city to consider residential uses consistent with the RENA program adopted by the city. Next, I'll move to Valencia, our other active community.

As a reminder, Valencia is in the early stages of its development and still has many future phases of land delivery ahead of it, which will enable us to provide much-needed housing in the Los Angeles market. During the Q1, home sales remained relatively steady as our guest builders sold 69 homes versus 74 in Q4. We currently have seven actively selling programs in Valencia. Additionally, we anticipate that another five programs will open during 2025, offering a greater diversity of home offerings for prospective home buyers. During the Q1, we took two new communities to market totaling 159 home sites, and we're working with two builders to finalize their due diligence and enter into binding purchase and sale agreements. We currently anticipate these sales will close towards the end of the year.

We also continue to work with Los Angeles County and other agencies on our regulatory approvals for our next development areas in Valencia, that will allow us to deliver thousands of additional home sites in the county's severely undersupplied market. In total, these development areas are expected to consist of approximately 8,900 market-rate home sites and 183 net acres of commercial land, approximately 139 of which is expected to cater towards industrial-focused uses. Additionally, given the recent loss of dwelling units in Los Angeles County wildfires, we expect greater cooperation between officials and developers to expedite more housing supply to help mitigate the shortage. Turning to San Francisco, as you may remember from our last call, the City and County and other applicable regulatory agencies gave us final approval to rebalance the entitlements between our two San Francisco communities, Candlestick and the Shipyard.

We're currently working on our engineering for the next phase of infrastructure, with the expectation of starting construction early next year. As we work on these plans, we continue to explore opportunities of bringing a strategic partner for this mixed-use Bayfront community. Let me conclude by saying that while the housing and financial markets are adjusting to new policies and consumers are trying to gauge the impact of these policies on their home buying decisions, we will remain focused on prudently managing development and sale of land within our master plan communities. Land is still about location and scarcity, and we have well-located land in an extremely supply-constrained market. In addition, our balance sheet and liquidity have us well-positioned to work through the current market conditions and to preserve the value of our land holdings while we opportunistically explore growth opportunities.

Additionally, we remain ever-focused on managing costs and controlling overhead as we grow our business in an efficient manner. Now, let me turn over to Mike, who will discuss Five Point's growth opportunities.

Mike Alvarado's (COO)

Thanks, Dan. Let me briefly update you on our efforts in pursuing growth opportunities for Five Point. As you heard us report on our last call, the land-light strategy that a number of publicly traded home builders have gravitated towards has given Five Point the potential opportunity to work alongside the builders in a win-win scenario that would allow the builders to follow their land-light strategy and Five Point to play to its strength in the land development business. To that end, we have been assessing acquisitions that fit into both short-term and mid- to long-term land delivery models.

In uncertain market conditions like we have today, unique opportunities often present themselves around land that can enable Five Point to create outsized returns. Five Point is uniquely positioned to do this, given its expertise and experience in the land development business. Regardless of the size and projected development timeline for new acquisitions, like many of the public builders, we intend to acquire new assets in an asset-light structure where we are bringing in third-party capital in a joint venture arrangement that will allow us to expand the reach and diversity of our platform. As I have mentioned previously, this model is one in which we would own an equity interest in the venture, provide management services to the venture, and have the ability to earn an incentive-promoted interest for excellent performance.

Bringing in capital partners reduces our capital investment and gives Five Point opportunities to move to an asset-lighter balance sheet model under a well-crafted partnership program. It is not lost on us that capital may be slow to make investment decisions in this current environment, but the need and demand for housing in many job centers around the country will continue to drive the deployment of capital into this market segment. Capital also likes to invest with companies whose management teams have extensive experience with embedded systematic financial and operational controls that can be trusted when investing their capital. Five Point has the management experience and expertise along with public company-level financial and operational controls, which can and has led to extraordinary achievements like what we are seeing with our existing Great Park Venture.

Indeed, the Great Park Venture's members have seen rising returns over the last several years driven by a combination of our management of the asset and the active engagement of the partners. We believe this is a business model that we can take advantage of as we look at other opportunities for future growth of the company. While we do not have any transactions to report at this time, we still anticipate sharing new opportunities with you before the end of the year. Now, let me turn it over to Kim to report on our financial results for the quarter.

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Thank you, Mike. As Mike and Dan have shared, we are proud of how we concluded our Q1 by exceeding our guidance.

While at the same time, we've been monitoring the markets closely as we look forward to the coming quarters and our land development activities and anticipated land sales later this year. First, as Dan noted, S&P recently reviewed our credit rating and determined it was appropriate to improve our ratings. I appreciate the time and effort S&P put forward to understand our structure and strategy and the confidence they have expressed in our ability to execute on our plans for the next 12 months. I'm now going to review our Q1 financial results, then I will conclude by updating the guidance of what we are expecting for the remainder of 2025. In the Q1, we recognized $60.6 million of net income. This is made up of the following components.

We recognized $71.4 million of equity in earnings from our unconsolidated entities, $70.9 million of which came from the Great Park Venture. The equity in earnings from the Great Park Venture were attributable to net income of $206.3 million, which resulted from land sales revenue of $278.9 million and a 75% gross margin. The venture also had $6.4 million of price participation in PAPA revenue. Five Point added $12.6 million of management services revenue, $9.2 million of which is associated with the incentive compensation from the Great Park. Our Q1 SG&A was $14.8 million, and finally, we recognized $9.5 million of tax expense. Now, a few words about our liquidity and cash. As Dan mentioned, we ended the quarter with $528.3 million of cash, as well as $125 million of availability on a revolving credit facility, resulting in total liquidity of $653.3 million.

At the end of the quarter, our debt-to-total capitalization ratio was 19.2%, and our net debt is effectively zero. During the quarter, we generated net cash flow of $97.5 million, the significant components of which were cash inflows of $112.9 million from the Great Park Venture distributions and $30.4 million from incentive compensation payments. This was offset by project-related costs at Valencia and San Francisco and SG&A cash outflows of $51.1 million combined. The remaining net positive cash flow of $5.3 million was from miscellaneous sources. Now, let me update the guidance that I gave you concerning our expectations for the remainder of 2025. We currently expect to have just under $10 million of net income for the Q2, with the balance of our anticipated earnings weighted towards the end of the year.

You'll recall that we previously indicated that we expect to have net income for the full year of close to $200 million, with the caveat that processes within the County of Los Angeles would function as we hoped during going into the year. While there is plenty of noise in the markets, we have not had any indications that would cause us to modify our guidance at this time. As it relates to our cash and senior debt, we are continuing to monitor the debt markets and the economic environment generally, and we remain ready to effect a refinance transaction for our senior notes, including a paydown of principal when we deem it prudent to do so. With that, let me turn it back to the operator, who will now open it up for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session.

If you would like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the Star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Kenneth Pounds with Castleberry Advisory. Please proceed with your question.

Kenneth Pounds (President)

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Very good quarter. The governor mentioned that perhaps there would be some layers of regulation taken off or some speed up because of even the more acute housing situation. Would that potentially benefit your two developments?

Dan Hedigan (President and CEO)

Hi, Kenneth. Thanks for the question. The answer is absolutely. Anything we can do to expedite process in California is supportive of us delivering housing.

Is there anything finite on there? Have you seen any changes in rules or timelines? There has been a lot of discussion in Sacramento, but we have not seen anything concrete yet. There also is a lot of legislation this year because there is an increased focus every year on the lack of housing supply in California. I do not have anything today I could share with you. There is a lot of activity that we are monitoring in Sacramento.

Kenneth Pounds (President)

Great. You talked about San Francisco, I guess, starting next year. Do you have—when would you perhaps have some CapEx plans or more of a budget for next year for that?

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Yeah. Kenneth, this is Kim. We will likely start giving some insight on that towards the end of the year, early next year.

Kenneth Pounds (President)

Great. Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Fader-Rattner with Space Summit Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Ben Fader-Rattner's (Managing Director)

Hi. Just for the record, I'm calling in a personal capacity, not for any firm. You have cash roughly equal to your debt. Every week that goes by, there's a drag that costs shareholders money. Why aren't you being more proactive in reducing the debt while you wait for market conditions? I just don't see the point of sitting with so much cash right now when you have a negative carry. Can you comment?

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Yeah. Ben, this is Kim. The challenge that we face is the 200 basis point cost of paying down the debt. There was a short period of time when it seemed to make sense if we could have refinanced at a lower rate.

Given the way the markets have moved, it does not seem prudent until that premium is removed late in the year. Just to say, as we said, we are monitoring the markets. We recognize that it is a bit of a carry, but we are also earning quite a bit on the cash. We are earning a good return. We are earning over 4% on the money we have. That 200 basis points on the full amount makes a very significant dent in the ability to do that. We are looking at it.

Ben Fader-Rattner's (Managing Director)

On that point, just to push back, I mean, you can earn about 4% on cash. It costs you over 10% in coupons. You are spending $30 million of negative carry. The cost to take that out would be $10 million.

I mean, I'm not suggesting you take out the whole thing, but the math on taking out some of it now, I think, is accretive. I don't see why you would incur a 6-point delta for seven months when you can take it out right now at 102. It seems like cost-effective to do so, but I wanted to go on record saying that. Yeah. I appreciate it, Ben. In terms of just the Great Park land sales that you did, it's amazing the numbers just keep going higher. It looks like it was around $12 million per acre for this last land sale. When you say that the additional land sales will be in line with what occurred, just to be clear, you're saying that $12 million is now the future number, or is it kind of the $10 million that you had talked about previously?

Dan Hedigan (President and CEO)

Ben, this is Dan. The blended number on the last four sales that closed where I gave you the information revenue is about $11.8 million. We are still seeing sales in that area. I would not start suggesting that $12 million is the new standard, but our most recent sale and other bids we have out there are consistent with that $11 million number.

Ben Fader-Rattner's (Managing Director)

Okay. In terms of the commercial land and the ability to, or the potential ability to convert it into residential, what do you think the timing looks like in terms of having the go-ahead from the City of Irvine to reentitle that land for residential purposes?

Dan Hedigan (President and CEO)

Ben, we're in kind of ongoing discussions on that topic, and I do not think I can really put a timeframe for it. Just know that we are actively involved looking at it.

We'll have more information later this year.

Ben Fader-Rattner's (Managing Director)

Okay. All right. Great. Thank you. Appreciate it. Great quarter.

Dan Hedigan (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Oakland, a private investor. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my call. I apologize if I can find this somewhere in the 10-K. How much commercial land do you have left entitled in Irvine as far as acres? I'm doing a math. We have 100 acres of commercial land between four sites that we constantly look at. We call it Lots two, seven, 10, and 11. Okay. There would be some, obviously, that could not all be sold in this way. There would have to be some left for open space and stuff like that. Is that fair?

Those are actually all of our open space and other obligations and that type of land have already been met through other obligations. These are gross acres, though. You do not get 100% efficiency in the sense that you do have streets, parks, some other things that would go into them on a residential basis.

Dan Hedigan (President and CEO)

Okay. Are you willing to give away—was that like 80% or something? Or not enough?

Generally speaking, I just, as a matter of course, use 85%.

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Percent efficiency.

Yeah. Great quarter. Thanks a lot for answering my question.

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Myron Kaplan, a private investor. Please proceed with your question.

Myron Kaplan's (founding partner and corporate and securities lawyer)

Hi. Hi, Kim. How are you?

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Doing well, Myron.

Myron Kaplan's (founding partner and corporate and securities lawyer)

The Great Park is a gift that never stops giving.

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Absolutely.

We're very grateful for the work that's been done there.

Myron Kaplan's (founding partner and corporate and securities lawyer)

Yeah. It's super. Very good quarter. I guess the plan is at the end of the year to refi, then finally, like you said, where you'll wait for the two points to come off.

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Yeah. If the markets are open. If you've been following the high-yield markets, it's a bit challenging out there right now.

Myron Kaplan's (founding partner and corporate and securities lawyer)

Hell, you could pay off the—you could pay off the bond and probably work a very small issue of $200 million-$250 million, and then you have the revolver, and you're in business.

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Yeah. We're looking at all those options, Myron.

Myron Kaplan's (founding partner and corporate and securities lawyer)

Yeah. I mean, I don't see how the market's going to refuse you. Anyway, very good. I guess Valencia, you're going to try to gear up?

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Yeah.

We're trying to get a reasonable pipeline that gives us the strength to have multiple years of product available to give us a longer pipeline. We're working hard on that process.

Myron Kaplan's (founding partner and corporate and securities lawyer)

Do all the Palisades fires and stuff, does that augment the thrust behind it, or is everything kind of just frozen?

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

I think that the fires, the recent fires, have created need. We're still sorting out the impacts it has on the government approval processes.

Myron Kaplan's (founding partner and corporate and securities lawyer)

Okay. We'll be patient. Like I said, San Francisco is a work in progress.

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

It is, but we'll have more to say about that later in the year as well.

Myron Kaplan's (founding partner and corporate and securities lawyer)

Okay. Well done. Thanks.

Kim Tobler's (CFO)

Thanks, Myron.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back to Dan Hedigan for closing remarks.

Dan Hedigan (President and CEO)

Thank you.

On behalf of our management team, we thank you for joining us on today's call, and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.