First Merchants - Q1 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the First Merchants Corporation first quarter 2023 earnings. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. Before we begin, management would like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements with respect to the future performance and financial condition of First Merchants Corporation. That involves risks and uncertainties. Further information is contained within the press release, which we encourage you to review.

Additionally, management may refer to non-GAAP measures, which are intended to supplement, but not substitute, for the most direct comparable GAAP measures. The press release available on the website contains financial and other quantitative information to be discussed today, as well as a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures. I will now hand the conference over to speaker today, Mark Hardwick, CEO. Please go ahead.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Good morning and welcome to First Merchants first quarter 2023 conference call. Victor, thanks for the introduction and for covering the forward-looking statement on page two. We released our earnings today at approximately 8:00 A.M. Eastern Time. You can access today's slides by following the link on the second page of our earnings release. On page three of the presentation, you'll see today's presenters and our bios to include President Mike Stewart, Chief Credit Officer John Martin, and Chief Financial Officer Michele Kawiecki. On page four, you will see the geographic locations of our 121 banking centers that serve as the physical location where approximately 400,000 customers periodically stop in to visit a trusted First Merchants banker for advice and consultation.

It's also where a little over 2,100 First Merchants employees work face-to-face with their colleagues to grow their careers while attending to the financial needs of our customers and our communities. It's where the culture comes to life and why some of the awards at the bottom right of this page were received. You know, given the turbulence of the past quarter, I'm glad we have such a grassroots community banking model. You know, honestly, I love our business model, and I love being a community banker. Since we last talked, the environment has provided tremendous opportunities to have thoughtful and thorough conversations with our clients. Turning to slide five. I'm pleased to report that loans, deposits, on-hand liquidity, and capital are all higher, better or stronger than at year-end 2022.

We've reported earnings per share of $1.07, an increase of 17.6% over the first quarter of 2022's earnings per share total of $0.91 per share. Net income was nearly $64 million. Return on tangible common equity totaled 19.82%. Return on assets totaled 1.42% for the quarter. Our balance sheet, including capital, is strong. Deposits and on-hand liquidity are higher than year-end. Loan growth continued for the quarter, totaling 7.9%. Loan yields continue to grow as well. Our efficiency ratio is at our target levels in the low 50s. Our credit quality remains healthy. No provision expense was recorded during the quarter. We continue our focus on delivering high-performance results to meet the needs of our stakeholders, including projects like our digital modernization efforts.

We even signed new contracts with both Q2 and SS&C and are hard at work to deliver on our timelines for deployment. Mike Stewart will provide more insight on our balance sheet growth before Michele and John dive into the details you're all looking forward to hearing regarding our liquidity and credit.

Mike Stewart (President)

Yeah. Thank you, Mark, and good morning to all. You know, the past two years, I haven't spent any time on slide six, and that's where I want to start, as our strategy has not changed. Considering the recent turmoil in the banking industry, it's worth reminding ourselves that our results represent the durability of our business model and the markets we serve. Visualize the map Mark reviewed on slide four, where we primarily operate within these three states. It's the heart of the Midwest. Our markets include growing metropolitan cities like Indianapolis, Columbus, and Detroit, mid-sized cities like Fort Wayne, Ann Arbor, Lafayette, Muncie, and Munster, along with many small towns in between. As the last bullet point under the consumer banking header states, we serve diverse locations in stable, rural, and metro markets.

It's a granular and diverse customer base with deposits from all banking segments, consumer, high net worth, small business, large corporate, government agency, commercial real estate clients. For the first quarter of 2023, these markets have remained resilient in the face of the industry turmoil and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Unemployment rates remain stable, the consumer remains healthy, and our business customers continue to seek ways to expand and optimize their operations. Our private clients continue to trust our advice and counsel. We remain committed to our business strategy and remain committed to our strategic direction of organic growth, investing in our team, investing in our digital products and platform, and top-tier financial metrics. Let's turn to page seven. The top of the page offers a breakdown of the core loan growth by our business units.

We guided last quarter that we would expect loan growth to be in the mid-single digits, and for the first quarter, loan growth was 7.9%. The commercial segment growth was a blend of the commercial, industrial, and investment real estate sectors growing across all the markets we serve. As John Martin will further detail, our C&I business is granular with a stable credit profile, and our investment real estate focus is not on the office sector. I want to spend more time on the global loan results, specifically the dollar increases behind the percentages on this page. As noted on slide 10, the commercial segment represents 75% of our total loan portfolio.

The 5.6% of first quarter growth is approximately $161 million or 68% of the total growth in the quarter of $238 million. While the consumer segment contracted this quarter by 4.1%, the dollar amount was less than $5 million. The mortgage portfolio growth during the quarter was approximately $80 million versus the prior quarter mortgage growth of $105 million. My point is, the commercial segment continues to be the loan growth engine of the bank, and within the commercial portfolio, we are starting to get higher spreads. Within the investment real estate segment, spreads are widening by 25-40 basis points on a similar risk profile from the second half of 2022.

In the C&I space, spreads are slowly widening by 25 basis points with a strong emphasis on relationship strategies like deposits and fees. We have maintained a consistent and disciplined approach towards underwriting within all these segments. John Martin has more detail on the loan portfolio later. Note, the commercial and consumer pipelines ended the quarter at consistent levels to prior quarters. The mortgage pipeline ended lower for the 6th consecutive quarter. Moreover, at the start of the year, we strategically adjusted our approach towards loan mix and are pivoting back to an originate and sell model with 70% of originations to be sold in the secondary market and 30% portfolio-ed. Overall, the outlook affirms my expectation of single-digit loan growth moving forward through 2023. I now want to speak to the deposit section on the bottom half of the page.

Deposit balances grew at nearly 9%. We have been in active dialogue with all of our clients discussing the safety of the deposits, the pricing options we provide, and adding First Merchants context to the banking headlines. Our commercial deposits showed less than a 1% decline. While we onboarded new relationships through the quarter, our operating balances across the network declined as higher cost borrowings under line of credit was a better use, or they were repaid, or they were using for other strategic business investment opportunities. The average utilization rate of the commercial lines of credit and for consumer HELOC were flat to prior quarters. As I've discussed previously, our consumer digital deposit acquisition initiatives began well over a year ago.

Over that time frame, we've demonstrated an ability to execute as a company as we launched our online account origination platform, and we continue to grow our consumer deposit balances and households throughout the quarter, and the online channel accounts for nearly 30% of the new account openings. We also launched our Interested in You brand campaign to support our customer acquisition strategy through radio, print, digital, and in-branch advertising. The campaign demonstrates our interest in helping our customers and communities prosper and has supported the deposit growth we experienced in the consumer segment, which was nearly 11% in the quarter. The acquisition strategies have been supported by continued retention strategies that our personnel deliver. Deepening the relationship with our solution-based customer service, enhanced online, mobile, and ATM features and convenience, along with our customer-friendly overdraft approach.

All these efforts are positioning us to increase the number of customers we serve and drive positive and profitable deposit balance growth. Michelle has more details to share about our balance sheet, the granularity of our deposit mix and our income statement. I'll turn it to you, Michelle.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Thanks, Mike. My comments will begin on slide eight. During the quarter, we had deposit growth of $321 million shown on line four, cash flows from the sales of securities of $213 million, which is reflected in investments on line three, coupled with run-off cash flow from the investment portfolio of $72 million, creating total liquidity of over $600 million during the quarter. The liquidity was used to fund the loan growth that Mike just discussed in his remarks of $238 million shown on line two, pay down borrowings of $160 million, and retain cash in excess of $200 million, which we chose to do as a matter of prudence, given the recent disruptions in the banking environment.

Our loan-to-deposit ratio this quarter remained relatively stable and low at 83.3% compared to 83.5% in the prior quarter. Our earning asset mix continues to trend in a favorable direction, and we feel our balance sheet is well-positioned heading into the second quarter to support growth. Pre-tax, pre-provision earnings totaled $75.4 million this quarter. PTPP return on assets was 1.67%, and PTPP return on equity was 14.48%. Interest earning asset volumes and yields were up but was offset by a lower earning day count this quarter, as well as higher deposit costs, resulting in net interest income of $144.1 million shown on line 11, a decline of $4.9 million from prior quarter.

Net income on line 17 totaled $64.1 million. Our efficiency ratio remained low at 51.72%, demonstrating excellent operating leverage. The tangible common equity ratio on line six increased 41 basis points totaling 7.75%. Tangible book value per share on line 26 increased 1.48% for $1.48 or 7%-$22.93, reflecting the strong earnings from the quarter as well as a meaningful recovery in the unrealized loss valuation of the available for sale securities portfolio. Slide 9 shows highlights of our investment portfolio. On the top right, you can see the yield on the portfolio remained relatively stable given we weren't reinvesting cash flows and bonds.

The total portfolio balance declined approximately $200 million from last quarter due to $213 million in the sales of bonds, resulting in a modest realized loss of $1.68 million or 0.8%. Those sales, coupled with scheduled pay downs and maturities, were offset by an improvement in the overall valuation of the portfolio of $51 million to arrive at the net decline of $200 million. On the bottom right, you can see we had a net unrealized loss on the mark to market of the available for sale securities portfolio of $245.7 million at quarter end, compared to $296.7 million in Q4, which reflected a nice recovery.

We also note the unrealized loss on the held to maturity portfolio of $328.8 million, which was also improved by $51 million. The effective duration of the portfolio was unchanged quarter-over-quarter, remaining at 6.4 years. The investment portfolio as a percentage of total assets is currently around 22%. This is down from a peak of 29% at the end of 2021, demonstrating the progress of a return to a more normalized earning asset mix. In the bottom left, you will see the cash flow we expect to receive in the remainder of 2023 of $220 million, which includes cash from principal and interest payments as well as maturities. We will also continue to sell bonds where we see opportunity creating additional cash flow.

Since quarter end, we have sold approximately $69 million in bonds, taking a very minor loss of $300,000. The bond portfolio will continue to be a strong source of liquidity to fund our loan growth through the year. Slide 10 contains highlights of our loan portfolio. In the bottom left corner, you will see the stated first quarter loan yield increased meaningfully, up 42 basis points to 6% from last quarter's yield of 5.58%. On the top right, I noted the yield on new and renewed loans, which also increased substantially from 6.10% last quarter to 7.08% this quarter, an increase of 98 basis points. We are pleased with the progress we have made in pricing and feel confident in our ability to maintain that discipline going forward.

On the bottom right, you will see $8.2 billion of loans or 67% of our portfolio are variable rate, with 38% of the portfolio repricing in one month and 51% repricing in three months. We'll see an increase in interest income from the loan portfolio if the Fed increases rates another 25 basis points. Slide 11 shows the details related to our allowance for credit losses on loans. We did not record any provision expense during the first quarter and had net charge offs of only $225,000, which brought the ending allowance for credit losses on loans to $223.1 million. The coverage ratio trend is shown in the graph on the top left.

Our coverage ratio at the end of Q1 is 1.82%, down from 1.86% at the end of Q4 due to loan growth, which is ample compared to peer averages of 1.2%. This reserve, coupled with the remaining fair value accretion of $29 million, which gives us some additional coverage for acquired loans, provides great credit protection given the uncertainty of the economic environment. I will move to slide 12. We continue to have a strong core deposit base. Our non-interest-bearing deposits were 20% of total deposits at the end of the quarter, which is down from the peak of 23.6% in the second quarter of last year.

This decline is the result of runoff of stimulus dollars, but more recent activity represents the mix shift felt across the industry as our new and existing clients move into higher yielding deposit products. Due to the design of our checking accounts, we pay interest on those products, which might make our percentage of non-interest-bearing deposits appear lower compared to some other banks. The interest we pay on a substantial number of those balances is very low. I noted in the highlights that 47% of our total deposit balances earn only five basis points or less. These balances declined 23.2% quarter-over-quarter. These accounts mostly represent accounts where customers utilize direct deposit or electronic payment services and are operating in nature and therefore less yield sensitive.

Our total cost of deposits increased 49 basis points to 1.41% this quarter, reflecting the competitive pricing environment. Our interest-bearing deposit cycle-to-date beta at quarter end was 37%, which was up from 29% last year. Note that our deposit betas do include time deposits. I've disclosed the total deposit costs for March, which were 1.6%, demonstrating the ongoing upward pricing pressure we're experiencing. Slide 13 includes some additional disclosures we added this quarter about our deposit base and funding sources. Our deposit base remains very granular, with the average deposit account totaling only $35,000 and having great diversification by commercial industry, as is demonstrated in the top left graph, where we have disclosed the top 10 NAICS categories. FDIC insured deposits totaled 57.2% of total deposits.

In addition, the State of Indiana has a Public Deposit Insurance Fund that insures public deposits providing insurance to an additional 14.8% of our deposit base. Only 28.1% of deposits are uninsured, and we have ample liquidity to cover those deposits, as is disclosed in the bottom right. Overall, we feel these disclosures illustrate the attractiveness of the granular, diverse deposit franchise we enjoy and our strong liquidity position. Slide 14 shows the trending of our net interest margin. Line one shows net interest income on a fully tax equivalent basis of $150.4 million. When you back out non-core interest income items such as fair value accretion on line two, our core net interest income totals $148 million, which is shown on line four.

This is an increase of $42.9 million over the first quarter of 2022 and a decline of just $4.5 million compared to prior quarter. Stated net interest margin on line seven totals 3.58% for the quarter. Adjusting for fair value accretion brings us to core net interest margin of 3.52%, which is shown on line 10, an increase of 55 basis points over the first quarter of 2022, and a decline of 13 basis points from last quarter's core NIM of 3.65%. The lower day count in the quarter caused a five-basis point decline on a linked quarter basis, leaving an operating decline of just eight basis points.

On slide 15, non-interest income came in as expected and totaled $25 million for the quarter, which increased $0.9 million on a linked quarter basis. Customer related fees this quarter totaled $24.5 million, increasing $2.6 million from the prior quarter. The increase was driven by higher card payment fees as well as higher client interest rate loan level hedging activity. Offsetting this customer related income, we recognized a $1.6 million loss on the sale of $213 million of available for sale securities as I mentioned earlier. Moving to slide 16. Total expenses for the quarter totaled $93.7 million. Salaries and benefits expense increased $5.1 million. $1.3 million of that increase was due to annual benefit plan expenses incurred in Q1, and the remainder was due to merit increases and incentives.

FDIC assessment costs increased as a result of the two-basis point increase, were offset with one-time FDIC credits of $2 million recorded in Q1, resulting in a quarter-over-quarter decrease of $900,000. We also experienced reduced marketing costs of $1.8 million over last quarter. Other expenses increased significantly because we recorded $700,000 of gains on the sales of property in Q4, which didn't recur. Our low, low core efficiency ratio reflected in the top right shows that we continue to achieve strong operating leverage even while we invest in technology and talent to grow the business. Slide 17 shows our capital ratios. Our earnings growth this quarter drove capital expansion in all ratios. The comments in the highlights draw attention to the impact of investment security marks on capital ratios.

You will see the tangible common equity ratio is 6.36%, including the held to maturity marks, the common equity Tier one ratio is 9.61% after incorporating the unrealized loss on available for sale securities reflected in accumulated other comprehensive income, reflecting great capital strength. It is important to note that all regulatory capital ratios remain well capitalized after incorporating the available for sale and held to maturity investment marks. Overall, we are pleased with the balance sheet strength and resiliency our business has reflected in these Q1 results. That concludes my remarks, I will now turn it over to our Chief Credit Officer, John Martin, to discuss asset quality.

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

All right, thanks, Michele, and good morning. My remarks start on slide 18, where I highlight the loan portfolio, including segmentation growth and composition. I'll comment on the expanded portfolio insight slides, review asset quality, and finish up with the non-performing asset roll forward. On slide 18, we grew total loans by $161 million, total commercial loans by $161 million on line eight, with increases in regional and middle-market C&I, as shown on line one, and stronger C&I Sponsor Finance growth on line two. These came after a strong fourth quarter in regional and middle-market C&I and a decline in C&I Sponsor Finance balances.

Dropping to line four, we had construction growth of $125 million, while utilization increased from 61.8%-63.2% from the linked quarter and up from 50.4% at the end of the first quarter of 2022. This increase in construction was partially offset by payoffs in the investment CRE or investment CRE of roughly $30 million on line five. We continue to hold our underwriting standards, as we discussed in previous calls, which is driving more equity into projects to make them work. As Stu mentioned earlier, we are beginning to see wider loan spreads.

Moving down to line nine, we maintained roughly the same pace of growth in the residential mortgage portfolio in the first quarter, while we are currently in the process of adjusting rates to drive higher originate and sell levels moving forward. Prior to the move in rates in 2022, we had historically had a sold to portfolio ratio of roughly 70%-30%. Over the last year, that proportion flipped to 30%, 70% portfolio to sold. We are in the process of adjusting pricing on new pipeline to return to more historical levels. Turning to slide 19. I've updated the portfolio insight slide, where we slice the portfolio several different ways to provide additional transparency into its composition. In the commercial space, the C&I classification includes Sponsor Finance as well as owner-occupied CRE associated with the business.

Our C&I portfolio is representative of our markets and has a 19.1% concentration in manufacturing. Our current line utilization remained consistent at 41.6%, up from roughly 41% at year-end, with line commitments increasing $126 million. We participate in roughly $780 million of Shared National Credits across various industries with an average balance of roughly $11 million. These are general relationships where we have taken a position, and there is access to management and revenue opportunities beyond the credit exposure. We also have roughly $67 million of SBA guaranteed loans. Diving into Sponsor Finance, borrowers in this portfolio are platform companies owned by private equity firms with an eventual expectation of sale.

We review the individual relationships quarterly for changes in performance, including leverage, cash flow coverage, and borrower condition. I presented some of the key underwriting metrics, including cash flow leverage and fixed charge coverage. Classified loans improved, ending the quarter at 3.5%, down from 4.2% the prior quarter. Moving to construction finance, we have limited exposure to residential development, and we are primarily focused on one-to-four family, non-tract, individual build residential construction loans through our mortgage department. For commercial construction, we continue to have a bias towards multifamily construction. Moving down to consumer residential mortgage, the portfolio consists of primarily prime originated residential and consumer loans. This includes HELOCs and HE loans and to a much lesser extent, branch originated auto secured loans and miscellaneous other consumer loans.

In summary, the portfolio is a balanced mix of what one might expect from a Midwest bank. Turning to slide 20. I've added this slide to give further detail into our non-owner occupied commercial real estate portfolio. The breakout is sorted based on our level of exposure from left to right. Since the Great Recession, we have focused on multifamily CRE lending while selectively adding project and other segments. Office exposure is broken out below the chart and represents 2.1% of total loans with the highest concentration outside of general office in medical. From a historical standpoint, the portfolio has performed well, much like the rest of the portfolio. The office portfolio is well diversified by tenant type and geographic mix.

We continue to periodically review our larger office exposures and view the exposure as being mitigated and acceptable given our current market conditions. Turning to slide 21. As in prior quarters, this slide highlights our asset quality trends and current position. We continue to maintain our asset quality profile with non-performing loans on line six at 50 basis points of loans, up from 42 basis points the prior quarter. We had an increase in 90 days past due as a result of two unrelated loans where the resolution occurred after quarter end. The first related to the settlement of a participation which increased the category $4.5 million, and a second from the renewal of a $1.6 million loan. Both have since been resolved.

Moving down to line seven, classified loans or loans with a well-defined weakness increased $35 million-$250.5 million or 2.04% of total loans, which continues to remain comparable to pre-pandemic levels. Finishing out the slide, we had net charge-offs of $200,000 for the quarter, resulting in another quarter of strong portfolio performance. Moving on to slide 22, we once again rolled forward the migration of non-performing loans, charge-offs, ORE, and 90 days past due.

For the quarter, non-accrual loans went up by $4.3 million on line six, resulting from new non-accruals of $15.4 million on line two, a reduction from payoffs or changes in accrual status of $8.6 million on line three, and a reduction of $1.4 million of loans moving to ORE, with gross charge-offs of $1.1 million. Dropping down to line 11, 90 days past due increased $5.3 million as a result of the issues just mentioned, related to the $6.1 million in 90 days past due on the last slide. Net net NPAs 90 days past due were up $10.7 million, leaving us with favorable credit metrics.

Overall, borrowers continue to perform well despite labor challenges, material shortage, and higher interest rates. Mark, I'll turn the call back over to you.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Thanks, John, Michele, and Mike. Hey, I hope the level of detail provided demonstrates our desire to just create transparency into our business. I hope it's helpful to our current and our future investors. You know, slide 23 and 24 are provided just to share the highlights of our 10-year combined annual growth rates and for both assets and total returns. If you look at slide 25, it's a reminder of our vision, mission, and our team statements and the strategic imperatives that guide our decision-making. You know, I just thought I would point out, given the environment we're in, bullet point four, that we're very much focused on maintaining top quartile financial results supported by industry-leading governance risk and compliance practices to ensure long-term sustainability of the enterprise.

You know, we really appreciate your attention, and we're happy to take questions at this time, Victor.

Operator (participant)

All right. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question will come from the line of Brian Martin from Janney. Your line is open.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, guys.

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Good morning, Brian.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

I appreciate the color on all the disclosures on the commercial real estate and the construction and different office portfolios. Just one question, John. I think you showed the classified loans out there this quarter. Can you just talk about any changes you've seen in the criticized loans? You know, I guess that maybe you didn't have data on. Just trying to understand if you're seeing any changes underneath what we're seeing, what's on the press releases. Sounds like credit is really performing well, just kind of wanna confirm that.

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Hi, Brian. Excuse me, the criticized loans moved at a similar rate to the substandard loans. The migration was pretty even within the portfolio. The criticized loans, obviously, with a potential weakness are a higher proportion of the total, so it's a larger dollar amount, but the rate at which it moved is about the same.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Pretty, pretty close. Then, maybe just jumping to the just two other things. Just on the the expense, you know, just kind of the the increase this quarter with kind of the normal seasonality. I'm just wondering if I don't know, if Michelle, if you can give any color on just kind of what the what the base rate going forward is. I know you talked about the FDIC, that maybe it kind of sounds like a one-time event, but just kind of getting the the right place for, you know, think about expenses going forward.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Yeah, sure. I would look for our expense run rate to run about $95 million-$96 million on a quarterly basis through the rest of the year. We did have that one-time credit, we also kind of offsetting that, we had some employee benefit expense that incurs, I'm sorry, in Q1 each year, so that will not recur in the later quarters. There was also some incentive cost in there as well, that's a little more seasonal. I would look for $95 million-$96 million as a normal run rate, Brian.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Gotcha. Okay. Just maybe one other one, I'll jump out and jump back in the queue. Just the margin. Can you just talk about what was the margin in the month of March, you know, relative to kind of what it was for the quarter? I'm just kind of trying to understand the baseline, what we start at, you know, heading into 2Q here.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Sure. Give me one second here. In March, our margin was 3.55.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

3:55. Okay, perfect. That's all I had for now. Let me step out and I'll let someone else step in.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Okay. Thank you.

Brian Martin (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes line of Damon DelMonte from KBW. Your line is open.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning, everyone. Hope everybody's doing well today, and thanks for taking my questions. I guess just to kinda continue on the margin discussion there, Michele. You know, as you look at like your deposit betas, you know, over the upcoming quarters, and if you kind of call the end of the cycle being at the end of this year, how do you kinda see that tracking based on where you are today?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Yeah. You know, we've modeled out. There's, you know, there's so many assumptions that go into figuring out what your margin is. I think after we kind of thought through what we think could play out through the remainder of the year, we're assuming that our Q4 margin would be 3.43%, which is still 40 basis points above Q1 of 2022. You know, we're expecting maybe another decline of maybe 15 basis points through the remainder of the year.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. With respect to fee income, you know, strong quarter this quarter, what are some of the puts and takes we should consider as we look at the remainder of the year?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

I think this quarter's fee income level is a really good run rate for the remainder of the year. You know, we do plan to sell more mortgage loans than we have in the last few quarters, and so we do think that could generate some gains. That's really kind of what is generating our confidence and stability.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay, great. I guess lastly, you know, your approach to kind of dealing with the loan loss reserve has been to grow into it, over the last couple years here. Do you feel like you're getting to a point where you need to start providing for the growth that you're expecting, or do you think that there's still more room to grow into that?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

I think there's more room to grow into it. We don't expect to have to take provision in the near term. We are modeling a mild recession in our models currently, we'll continue to evaluate it each quarter with loan growth and particularly if we see any credit events that occur during the year.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay, great. That's all that I had. Thank you very much.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Thanks, Damon.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes the line of Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Scott Siefers (Managing Director)

Morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the question. Michelle, I was just curious, just given all the sort of the heightened visibility or I guess scrutiny on securities portfolios generally, any thoughts on whether you guys would manage any of the securities portfolio even differently just given sort of all the unrealized loss issues both in AFS and held to maturity as well?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

I don't think there will be anything different in the way that we'll manage it. One of the things that, you know, I mentioned, you know, this quarter we were able to get $213 million in bond sales in Q1. We've had $69 million in Q2. I think we'll continue to look for opportunities to try to harvest some of those bonds. You know, the loss that we've taken is pretty negligible. We think that'll continue through the remainder of the year, and that'll provide some good liquidity for us, and we'll get back to a more normalized level of investments to assets.

Scott Siefers (Managing Director)

Okay. Perfect. Then wanted to switch gears to the deposit base for just a second. I think just on non-interest bearing to total, you're at about 20%. Then, I appreciated the discussion of sort of those lower yielding kind of operational accounts that you have as well. In, in response to what I'm gonna ask, if you wanna layer those in that'd be certainly fine as well. How do you think the deposit mix, particularly your non-interest bearing or low yielding, pardon me, low interest cost balances will sort of traject within the scheme of the total deposit portfolio through the rest of this cycle?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

I think we're gonna continue to see a little bit more of a negative mix shift. You know, if we just stick with just the pure non-interest bearing, since I know we do put that in our press release. The non-interest bearing is currently at 20% of total deposits. I would expect that that would probably come down maybe another two basis points, maybe through the remainder of the year.

Scott Siefers (Managing Director)

Two percentage points or basis points?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

2%. Yes. Sorry. Yeah.

Scott Siefers (Managing Director)

No problem. Okay. Perfect. That's good color. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

One moment.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Thanks Scott.

Operator (participant)

for our next question. Our next question comes the line of Ben Gerlinger from Hovde Group. Your line is open.

Ben Gerlinger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning, guys. It seems like you guys are still in a market share opportunity expansion, i.e., kind of in growth mode still. Are you seeing any opportunities or any lending segments that people are stepping away from? Kind of more broadly speaking, are you seeing shots on goal now because of a bigger size and where pricing is kind of more in the bank's favor as there's less competition?

Mike Stewart (President)

Well, it's Mike Stewart here. Yeah, as our bank has grown, we have invested in a group of people that I would say focus on what we call upper middle market. The broader market might just call it middle market. We have the ability to work with larger companies and therefore control their entire operational account at the same time. Then our expansion into the greater Detroit marketplace or Michigan in particular over the last year, gives us opportunity in that space as well. I do think that the organic growth on the commercial side and the middle market space is a good place for us to be, and that's where we're seeing most of our growth.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Gotcha. Then.

Ben Gerlinger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

I kind of have a two-part question here. Were any of the 'cause, I mean, deposits were pretty solid, the growth was. Was there anything within that that is purely a seasonality factor that might outflow? I mean, it's kind of boosting 1Q results.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

We don't really have much seasonality in our deposits. I mean, the only seasonality that we incur is intra-quarter with public funds, where we see taxes come in. That occurs typically in May and in November. By the time we get to the end of a reporting quarter, it kind of flows back out. When you look at quarter ends, there's really nothing there, I think to note, Ben.

Ben Gerlinger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Gotcha. Okay. Yeah, that's what I was thinking. When you just think kind of your deposit growth was pretty healthy relative to what we've seen in the industry. I'm just kind of, maybe I'm thinking out loud here, but it seems like you might be pulling forward some of your deposit beta pressure. If loan growth doesn't materialize, I think is it safe to assume your margin could actually be higher than what you, what you stated for 4Q? Is that kind of really embedding in a mosaic of theories that you feel pretty comfortable with your 4Q guidance?

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Yeah. Ben, it's a great point. We became much more aggressive, as Mike Stewart mentioned, in early February and March with deposit specials on the consumer side and individual conversations on the commercial side. You know, Michele Kawiecki's guidance, we feel good about in terms of overall margin and where it takes deposit betas. Just given the environment, we feel like, you know, having a conservative estimate makes sense and given all the uncertainty. You know, we feel good about where we stand, and we're optimistic about the remainder of the year and our ability to continue to grow. Funding is critical to growth. We definitely kind of shifted gears in early February and started being more aggressive with deposit rates.

Ben Gerlinger (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Gotcha. I appreciate the color and the extra insight on the slide. That was appreciated. I'll step back. Thanks, guys.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy from Stephens. Your line is open.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Good morning, Terry.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Maybe Mark, start with a question for you, kind of a non-modeling question. When I look at slide 24, First Merchants has had kind of steady organic and bank acquisition growth over the years. I guess my question is, if bank M&A is on hold for a while, how are you thinking about accelerating organic growth? Are there hiring plans you're contemplating? Any new markets that you think can provide some incremental growth? I think a few calls ago you mentioned expanding into Cincinnati, if my memory is correct. If you have any comments there, that'd be helpful.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

No, you know, our guidance of, you know, mid to high single digits over time of organic growth, we still feel great about. You know, in this environment, we think, you know, a little lower estimate, maybe 5% or 6%, 7% makes more sense. That's what we're focused on for now. The M&A activity, there are a handful of markets we like. We're focused on deposit-rich institutions but don't anticipate really doing anything until at least 2024. You know, I feel like we can produce the same type of results just on a core basis, for a given period of time.

Ultimately, we tend to like M&A for two reasons, that it provides additional funding to support continued loan growth, and it introduces new markets where we can build a commercial bank and typically results in improved efficiencies and economies of scale, our operating leverage over time. You know, we're looking in the four states that we're currently in, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, maybe Illinois, focused on the other three primarily. In this environment, we're just spending time continuing to build relationships versus really thinking about kind of putting a price out on the table. We also, you know, I mentioned those two agreements that we signed this year with Q2 and SS&C to replace our online and mobile platform, as well as our private wealth platform.

We're very focused on completing those projects and getting all that work done by the end of the second quarter of next year. It's all internal at this point, and I would expect it to stay that way at least in into 2024.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Thanks for that, Mark. Maybe a follow-up for John. The Shared National Credit portfolio, the 782, are there any leverage loans in there? Maybe give us a profile of what's in that portfolio in terms of who are the lead banks and some kind of concentration or geographic color would be helpful as well.

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah. It kind of fits into two gen or categories, Terry, with the preponderance of the loans being middle market companies that we participate with partners in our geographic footprint. It's that statement I made earlier about having access to management and cross-selling into other non-credit related services to those companies. There's a small, less than, I think, around $100 million of, you know, I'll call it leverage loans, credit graded triple B or better, triple B minus or better. You know, those are more national companies. It's a small portion. A portion of those were, you know, picked up through some of the mergers that we've completed.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Hey, Terry, Mike Stewart. The typical banks that we partner with would be the names like Huntington and Key and Fifth Third and banks that are leading transaction that are on our market. We're partnering there because remember, we also have a full syndication desk and capability. It offsets what we're also selling to diversify, portfolios on the other end. Those very banks also buy into our transactions as well as us selling downstream.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Perfect. Appreciate the color, guys. Michele, from you as well. Thank you.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Thank you, Terry.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session for today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mark for any closing remarks.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Yeah. Just again, thanks for your interest and your investment in First Merchants. Again, I hope all the color we tried to provide helps you have great insight into our operating model. Hopefully you can also tell from the comments that we're optimistic about the future of First Merchants and our performance. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.