First Merchants - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the First Merchants Corporation Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, management would like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements with respect to future performances and financial conditions of First Merchants Corporation that involve risks and uncertainties. Further information is contained within the press release, which we encourage you to review. Additionally, management may refer to non-GAAP measures, which are intended to supplement, but not substitute for, most directly comparable GAAP measures. The press release available on the website contains financial and unquantitative information to be discussed today, as well as reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures. At this time, all participants are on listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question at that time, please press star one one on your telephone.

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Mark Hardwick, CEO. Mr. Hardwick, you may begin.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Good morning, and welcome to First Merchants Q3 2023 Conference Call. Valerie, thanks for the introduction and for covering the forward-looking statement on page two. We released our earnings today at approximately 8:00 A.M. Eastern Standard Time. You can access today's slides by following the link on the third page of our earnings release. On page three, you'll see today's presenters and our bios, to include President Mike Stewart, Chief Credit Officer John Martin, and Chief Financial Officer Michele Kawiecki. On page four, you will see a map representing the geographic locations of our 118 banking centers, as well as a few financial highlights as of 9/30/2023.

We also received two more Comparably awards during the quarter, including Best Places to Work for Career Growth and Best Places to Work for Women, which I'm really proud of. We did include those on page four. Now, turning to slide five, I'm pleased to report that our performance remains healthy and strong, and our teams continue to meet the demands of our communities and our client base. We reported Q3 2023 earnings per share of $0.94 per share, compared to $1.08 per share in the Q3 of 2022. Net income totaled $55.9 million for the quarter, producing a return on tangible common equity of 16.54% and a return on assets of 1.24% for the quarter.

During the quarter, our deposits increased by $65.4 million, or 1.8%. The core results were even better as we decreased brokered deposits by $133.6 million and municipal deposits by $128.8 million. The adjusted growth of $327.8 million in traditional commercial and consumer deposits was very strong and positions us well for the coming quarters and expected growth. Loan yields remain strong, reflecting a highly variable portfolio, increasing to 6.58%. New and renewed loan yields totaled 7.88%, up 58 basis points over the Q2 of this year.

Our efficiency ratio remains strong in the low 50s, and our allowance for credit losses is still 1.67%, despite the meaningful charge-off due to a customer fraud that we will discuss later in the call. Year to date, we've earned $179.9 million, or $3.03 per share, and we remain committed to our guidance of mid-to-high single-digit loan growth and top quartile performance metrics. Now, Mike Stewart will provide more insight on loans and deposits.

Mike Stewart (President)

Yeah, thank you, Mark, and good morning to everybody. Our business strategy that's outlined on slide six remains unchanged and is a reminder that the financial results we deliver represent the durability of our business model within the primary markets of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. We serve the diverse locations that are both in stable rural markets and in growing metro markets, and we're a commercially focused organization across all these business segments. The collective First Merchants team is actively engaged within all of our business communities, and the offerings listed on this page represent the solutions we deliver. Throughout 2023, we've remained committed to our business strategy, organic growth of loans and deposits and fee income, attracting, retaining, and building our team, investing in technology platforms that enhance service, and delivering top-tier financial metrics.

If you turn to slide seven, the map on the left side of the page offers a breakdown of the Q3 loan and deposit portfolio by state, with the right side highlighting loan and deposits by our primary business segments. The annualized total loan growth for the Q3 was on the lower end of my expectations as our commercial clients aggressively managed their working capital positions. Line of credit utilization actually reduced in the quarter, and clients slowed or delayed some of their capital outlays or projects as they continued to evaluate the current interest rate environment. Year to date, our total loan portfolio has grown on an annualized rate of 4.6% when adjusting for the Q2 loan sale we talked about last quarter. As the earnings release stated, our loan portfolio is growing 6.4% over the last 12 months.

As Mark said, mid-single digit growth rate remains the expectations moving forward as the commercial loan pipeline into September at the highest level we've seen in the past year. Moreover, October has already shown the benefits from the Q3 pipeline delays that have now closed. John Martin has a slide, page 18, that highlights the year-over-year growth within the portfolio, and that slide reflects that nearly 65% of our loan growth comes from the commercial segment. Overall, our commercial represents over 75% of our total loan portfolio, with the balance coming from the consumer segment. That segment is comprised of residential mortgage, HELOC, installment, and the private banking relationships. And as you can see, during the Q3, that segment grew at a 7.3% annualized rate.

Overall, the commercial segment continues to be the loan, the loan growth engine of the bank, and we continue to get higher spreads on the new loan generation. Michele will highlight loan yields next. But within the investment real estate segment, spreads continue to widen up to 75 basis points on similar risk profiles from the second half of 2022. And the C&I space spreads are widening up to 25 basis points, with a strong emphasis on relationship strategies, both deposits and fees. You know, the overall economic environment, inclusive of the competitive landscape, the competitive landscape with super regional banks in particular, informs my expectation of single-digit loan growth with improving loan yields through the balance of 2023 and into 2024, with the commercial group driving the bulk of that. Our balance sheet is positioned for that growth.

Our team is positioned for that growth, and our underwriting remains consistent and disciplined across all those segments. So if you think about the deposits that you see on that page, deposits grew 1.8% on an annualized rate during the Q3 and 2.4% year-to-date. As you heard Mark discuss from slide five, the commercial deposits were actually muted. The growth was actually muted by the seasonal decline of the municipal fund space, seasonally paying down about $128 million. So said differently, the rest of the commercial-related deposit base grew 5% during the quarter when adjusting for those municipal fund declines. The consumer deposit segment showed strong growth at over 9% annualized for the quarter, and this growth includes the activity through both the branch network and through our private banking team.

So the continued deposit growth throughout 2023, throughout the bank failures earlier this year, throughout the continued Fed rate increases, supports our ability to remain focused on growth. So I'm going to turn the call over to Michele, and she can review more of the detail of the balance sheet and the income statement drivers.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Thanks, Mike. Slide eight covers our Q3 results. Lines one through five show the balance sheet changes for the quarter. Mike covered our loan and deposit growth in his remarks. You can see on line three, investments declined by $177.8 million this quarter. We sold $33.2 million of bonds during the quarter, and scheduled pay downs and bond maturities accounted for another $38.2 million of the decline. The remainder of the decline was due to the change in valuation of available-for-sale securities. Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Earnings totaled $67.4 million this quarter. Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Return on Assets was 1.48%, and Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Return on Equity was 12.51%, all of which reflect strong profitability metrics. Slide nine shows the year-to-date results.

Loans have grown $627 million year-over-year, which was funded by the deposit growth of $212 million and proceeds from the investment portfolio sales and scheduled cash flows. Year to date, pre-tax, pre-provision earnings totaled $214.3 million. Pre-tax, pre-provision return on assets was 1.58%, and pre-tax, pre-provision return on equity was 13.44% year to date. The tangible common equity ratio increased from 6.66% in prior year to 7.69% at September 30th, reflecting that strong year-to-date earnings growth and tangible book value increased $3.17 over prior year. Details of our investment portfolio are disclosed on slide 10. The sale of $33 million in, of bonds this quarter resulted in a loss of $1.7 million.

Year to date, we have sold $347 million in bonds, creating liquidity to put to work in the loan portfolio and ensure we have a solid cash position. Expected cash flows from scheduled principal and interest payments and bond maturities for the next 15 months totals $335 million. Slide 11 shows some details on our loan portfolio. As Mark mentioned in his opening remarks, new loan yields increased 58 basis points to 7.88%. $8.1 billion of loans, or 66% of our portfolio, are variable rate, with 37% of the total portfolio repricing in one month and 53% of the total portfolio repricing in three months.

Through the end of 2024, we have $1 billion in fixed-rate loans maturing, which is a quarter of our total fixed-rate loans portfolio, with a weighted average maturity of 4.64%, providing good incremental interest income, given new loans are repricing at 7.88% currently. The allowance for credit losses on slide 12 declined from 1.8% to 1.67% of total loans due to net charge-offs incurred during the quarter of $20.4 million, which John will provide details on in his remarks. We recorded $5 million of provision for credit losses on loans, which was offset by a reduction of reserves for unfunded commitments of $3 million due to a decline in unfunded commitment balances. The result was net provision expense of $2 million recognized in the income statement.

Slide 13 shows details of our deposit portfolio. We continue to have a strong core deposit base, with 41% of deposits yielding 5 basis points or less. Our non-interest bearing deposits were 17.4% of total deposits at the end of the quarter, which is down slightly from 18.1% in the prior quarter. Our total cost of deposits increased 33 basis points to 2.32% this quarter, and our interest-bearing deposit cycle to date, to date beta at quarter end was 51%, which was up from 47% last quarter. The big picture of what we're seeing is customer interaction in deposit pricing is lessening, so the mix shift and beta increases slowed this quarter compared to last, leading us to believe that we're getting closer to achieving deposit price stability.

Although we expect the cost of deposits to continue to increase somewhat through the remainder of the year, we expect that pace will be even slower than what we experienced this quarter. On Slide 14, net interest income on a fully tax equivalent basis of $139.3 million declined $4.4 million from prior quarter. Earning asset yields increased 19 basis points this quarter, as shown on line five, and was somewhat offset by the increase in funding costs on line six, reflecting stated net interest margin on line seven of 3.29%, a decline of 10 basis points from prior quarter. Average deposits during the quarter were $89 million higher than the period ending balance, and given we had muted loan growth this quarter, the impact put a bit of pressure on margin.

Non-interest income on slide 15 increased $1.5 million, driven primarily by $1.9 million increase in gains on the sales of mortgage loans. We originated $192 million of mortgage loans this quarter and held roughly 30% of those for investment and sold the rest in the secondary market. Our gain on percentage, including servicing income, was 2.9%. So our mortgage team was able to contribute some meaningful fee income this quarter. Moving to slide 16, we continue to demonstrate good expense management, with total expenses for the quarter of $93.9 million, an increase of $1.3 million over last quarter. The increase was primarily due to higher marketing costs this quarter.

Our efficiency ratio continues to be low, coming in at 53.91% for the quarter and 52.6% year to date. Slide 17 shows our capital ratios. Our strong earnings growth this quarter drove capital expansion in all ratios, with the exception of the tangible common equity ratio, which declined 30 basis points, totaling 7.69% due to the impact of AOCI that I mentioned earlier in my remarks. Heading into the remainder of 2023, we feel great about the capital position, the strength in our balance sheet, and are pleased with the sources of our growing liquidity coming from customers that enhance franchise value. That concludes my remarks, and I will now turn it over to our Chief Credit Officer, John Martin, to discuss asset quality.

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Thanks, Michele, and good morning. My remarks start on slide 18. I'll highlight the loan portfolio, touch on the expanded insights slide, review asset quality, and the non-performing asset roll forward before turning the call back over to Mark. So turning to slide 18, on line two, commercial and industrial loans originated by our sponsor finance group grew in the quarter by $31 million or 15% annualized, while construction loans grew $72 million or 30% annualized. From a macro perspective, other lines of business offset this growth, with total loans ending mostly unchanged in the quarter. We continue to see activity in sponsor finance lending, where we've maintained consistent underwriting and continued to see stable to marginally improving spreads. Higher interest rates are driving additional capital contribution requirements to meet our underwriting and stress criteria.

Moving down to line nine, we slowed balance sheet growth of resi one to four family mortgages, with $10 million added to the portfolio for the quarter. We completed the origination transition strategy in the Q2, which has essentially stopped portfolio growth and increased sale and servicing income, which Michele just mentioned. Turning to slide 19. We've updated the portfolio insight slide to provide additional transparency. In the commercial space, the C&I classification includes sponsor finance as well as other, as well as owner-occupied CRE associated with the business. Our C&I portfolio has a 20% concentration in manufacturing. Our current line utilization remained consistent around 41%, as Stu just mentioned, with line commitments increasing $32 million. We participate in roughly $644 million of shared national credit across various industries.

These are generally relationships where we have access to management and revenue opportunities beyond the credit exposure. In the sponsor finance portfolio, I've highlighted key credit portfolio metrics. There are 86 borrowers, of which fixed charge coverage of it exceeds 1.5 times based on the June financial data. Although this has trended lower with higher borrowing costs, it remains healthy, with current classified loans at 2.7%, as compared to 3.8% the prior quarter. This portfolio generally consists of single bank deals for platform companies or private equity firms, not large, widely syndicated leveraged loans. We review the individual relationships quarterly for changes in borrower condition, including leverage and cash flow coverage. Turning to slide 20. We've continued to provide the breakout of our non-owner occupied commercial real estate portfolio with additional detail around our office exposure.

Office exposure is broken out on the bottom half of the chart and represents 2.1% of total loans, unchanged from the prior quarter, with the highest concentration outside of general office in medical. I've added a chart to the bottom right with office portfolio maturities. Refinance risk appears low, with $16.5 million or 6.4% of total office loans maturing within the next year. I also provided a couple of bullets to provide additional color into the office portfolio and its granularity with a portfolio of 219 loans and an average balance of $1.2 million. The office portfolio is well diversified by tenant type and geographic mix.

We continue to periodically review our larger office borrowers and view the exposure as reasonably, reasonably mitigated through a combination of loan-to-value guarantees, tenant mix, and other considerations. On slide 21, I highlight our asset quality trends and current position. NPAs and greater than 90 days past due loans decreased $17.6 million or 14 basis points on line five. We had two commercial relationships which made up the $19 million of the $20 million of charge-offs for the quarter. I spoke to both borrowers last quarter when they were moved to nonaccrual. The first, a $14 million charge-off, resulted from the previously disclosed commercial loan that was downgraded to nonperforming in the Q2. This occurred when we received a report from the lead bank of an alleged fraud by a borrower in which we jointly participated.

The syndication included three banks, where First Merchants was not the lead. An agent for the borrower had allegedly both sold and pledged the bank's group's collateral out of trust. The balance was charged down based on the alleged fraud and findings uncovered during the lead bank's ongoing investigation and subsequent bankruptcy filings by our borrower and its agent. We continue to monitor the bankruptcy process and pursue opportunities for recovery. The second, a $5.3 million charge-off, was driven by a pullback in industrial construction, a segment of the market in which the borrower focused, and inability to adjust expenses. Moving down to line seven, classified loans declined 1.89% of loans, resulting from both the charge-offs as well as an improvement in asset quality.

Moving on to slide 22, where I've again rolled forward the migration of nonperforming loans, charge-offs, ORE, and 90 days past due. For the quarter, we added nonaccrual loans on line two of $7.5 million, a reduction from payoffs or changes in accrual status of $2.5 million on line three, and a reduction from gross charge-offs of $20.9 million. Dropping down to line 11, 90 days past due decreased $300,000, which resulted in NPAs and 90 days past due, ending at $17.6 million for the quarter. Just to summarize, asset quality remains good. When I exclude the impact of the Q3 borrower with alleged fraud, Q3 net charge-offs would have been an annualized 22 basis points of total average loans for the quarter.

When looking at year-to-date net charge-offs, it would have been an annualized 10 basis points. Both criticized and classified loans remain in check, and delinquency remains stable. All in all, we're ending the quarter with good asset quality metrics. I appreciate your attention, and I'll turn the call over to Mark Hardwick.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Great. Thanks, John. Hey, slides 23 and 24, they just highlight some of our ten-year combined annual growth rates and returns. And then slide 25 is a reminder of our vision, mission, and our team statement, along with some strategic imperatives. But at this point, I'd love to get into the Q&A portion of the call.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Again, to ask a question, please press star one one. One moment, please, for our first question. Our first question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy of Stephens. Your line is open.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Hi, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe start with a question.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Morning, Terry.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Hi, good morning. For Michele, maybe, could you just maybe talk about the repricing of certain assets, as well as just, you know, ongoing increases in funding costs, and what does that mean to your thoughts for the near-term margin and, and when and where it might bottom?

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yes. Morning, Terry. You know, our September, so our quarterly margin was 3.29. Our September margin was 3.25. We do think we'll see a bit more margin compression in Q4. We are still working through our planning for 2024, although I would expect either Q4 or Q1 of 2024 to really see our margin trough. With the repricing of the assets that we expect to see through the remainder of 2024, we should be able to see a little pickup in margin. We'll finish our planning, and we'll be able to provide a little bit better guidance to you, I think, next quarter.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Thank you. And maybe as a follow-up question for John. First off, thanks for all the details into the loan portfolio. But my question is, how do the underlying credit trends within the Shared National Credit portfolio, how do those differ at all from the rest of the C&I portfolio? Just given there's been a fair amount of concerns with SNC loans, and are you seeing anything different between your kind of core C&I business?

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah. You know, I'm really not. The Shared National Credit portfolio, you know, we're underwriting it kind of the same standard. Well, not kind of, we are running it, underwriting it to the same standard. And really the difference is the size of the credit itself. So frankly, there hasn't been a material difference between the two portfolios. If anything, it's probably performing maybe marginally better than the rest of the portfolio. That is the portfolio [crosstalk] we're also seeing some of the expansion in the margin, expansion in the loan yields. Yeah.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Understood. Yep, understood. Thank you. And I guess one small one, the auto suppliers or auto parts manufacturers, it was on one of these slides. Just given the prolonged strike or potential of a prolonged strike, what's the size of that portfolio? Were there any other write-downs, and do you have any other observations there?

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah, it's interesting, Terry. When I started researching for the quarter, I tried to get to the automotive portfolio. And when I think about manufacturing, there's so much in the Midwest that's tied to auto and somehow otherwise related to it. But it's some fraction of that manufacturing total. It's hard to pull out, you know, what is directly tier two, if you will, because we're not really doing tier one suppliers to the automotive industry. But you know, it's some, you know, I'll say significant. I will say that to date, most of the changes or the adjustments that manufacturers have made have been relatively minor.

Production still occurs at most of the plants, and we haven't seen any direct, you know, widespread, impact from either the slowdowns or some of the plant, shutdowns that, have occurred.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah. I would say, though, that if, you know, if it does, if it were, you know, months of it, you know, it will obviously have some impact, but right now, it's been kind of isolated.

Terry McEvoy (Managing Director)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Damon DelMonte of KBW. Your line is open.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning, everyone. Hope everybody's doing well today. Just wanted to.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Good morning, Damon.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director)

Hey, Mark. Just wanted to start with Michele on a question on expenses. If you could just give us a little perspective on kind of your thoughts here in the Q4 and more so as we go through 2024, as far as kind of a quarterly outlook for the overall expense base.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Hey, good morning, Damon. For Q4, I would say the expense run rate will probably be in the $94 million-$95 million range, which is really consistent with the guidance that we've provided last quarter. For 2024, we're still working through our planning, as I mentioned to Terry, and so we'll be able to give you a better run rate probably next quarter to, on what we'll see in 2024.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director)

Got it. Okay, thanks. And then, on the fee income side of things, obviously a little bit more in the mortgage banking. I think this quarter, probably some seasonality here in the Q4. But, you know, do you think, a kind of a, call it $28.5 million-$29.5 million range is reasonable as we close out the year?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

You know, I think that our run rate, what we had in Q3, would be a good run rate to use for Q4.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director)

Okay. All right, great. And then I guess lastly, on the, on the tax rate, do you have an estimated effective tax rate we should consider?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Yeah, I think we're expecting it to be 15%-15.5%.

Damon DelMonte (Managing Director)

Okay. Okay. That, that's all I have for now. I'll step back. Thank you.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

All right. Thanks, Damon.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Race of Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yep, great. Hi, everyone. Hope everyone's doing well. Just going back to the margin outlook over the next few quarters, curious to kind of hear some thoughts on some of the dynamics on the right side of the balance sheet. You know, it was great to see the borrowings held flat versus the last quarter. So just curious how you guys are thinking about kind of core deposit growth going forward and how you are thinking about funding loan growth. It sounds like mid-single digit loan growth should be restored going forward. So I imagine it's just a combination of securities portfolio and cash flow that Michele alluded to earlier, and then also with some incremental deposit growth. Is that the right way to think about it?

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Yeah, it is. I think and good morning, Nate. I think we're pretty confident in our ability to continue to grow our deposit base to fund our loan growth. And so that mid- to higher single-digit growth rate of loans for next year, funded primarily out of deposits, is what we're focused on.

Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, great. And then just kind of theoretically, in a higher for longer rate environment, do you guys have any visibility in terms of kind of how you think about, you know, where NII maybe bottoms and just maybe an overall growth rate for next year? Because it looks like you're on pace to grow NII, you know, 4%-5% this year. So any thoughts on just how NII trajects into next year under that environment?

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

Well, I think, in Q4, with the margin compression that we think we might see, at least a bit of it that we think we'll see, but there could still be some pressure on net interest income. I think once we hit that trough, though, and we make a turning point, then we should be able to see some growth. And I think the loan growth that we'll expect to see, you know, over the coming quarters will also help offset any rising deposit costs that are left until we see some real deposit pricing stability.

Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Makes sense. And then maybe just lastly on capital. You know, you guys are still operating with pretty flexible excess capital levels. So just curious to hear any thoughts on the, perhaps reengaging buybacks, or is the plan kind of just to build capital, just given the uncertainty out there?

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Yeah, I'd love to be more active in the market with buybacks. We haven't felt like that it's been the right time to do that. And what we'd like to just see is stability at our tangible common equity level above 8% and some certainty around the marketplace that we'll have less volatility.

Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. So it still sounds like maybe M&A is kind of off the table at least through the first half of 2024. Is that a fair way to characterize kind of the prospects there?

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Yeah, at this point in time, we are 100% focused on internal projects. We're really excited about getting Q2 deployed, our online and mobile platform, for all of our customers, consumer and commercial. And also getting our SS&C project completed, which is a complete replacement of our private wealth platform. So that's the priority at this point, and the trading multiples I really don't lend to M&A activity. And so we're continuing to keep our relationships strong with banks that we're impressed by, that may be potential candidates in the future, but I don't really feel like we have the pricing power to be active at this point, nor are we ready internally to focus on M&A.

Nathan Race (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Makes sense. I appreciate all the color and you guys taking the questions. Thank you.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Thanks, Nate.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Tamayo, Raymond James. Your line is open. Pardon, Mr. Tamayo, your line is open? One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Martin of Janney. Your line is open.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Morning, Brian.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, just hey, Mark, just a, maybe one question, Michele, on the margin. Just the spot margin for the month of September, how did it trend kind of throughout the quarter? Just trying to get a feel for that based on kind of the slowing deposit costs here.

Michele Kawiecki (CFO)

You know, I think it trends it down pretty rapidly, actually. And so it ended up landing at 325, at the end of September.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay. And I guess your commentary, you know, but with the deposit costs slowing and kind of the, what you outlined as far as those fixed-rate loans are repriced. I mean, I guess your expectation is that the loan yields continue to expand here in, you know, the next 3-4 quarters, you know, just given that repricing that's occurring, is it? And along with, I mean, that's kind of the message with the kind of stabilization you're seeing in the funding side.

Mike Stewart (President)

Yeah, this is Mike Stewart. I do think that. Seeing it on the commercial side, the mortgage that we put on would be the same way. So yeah, on the repricing and any I think we're doing in the HELOC, all that should drive higher loan yields.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. And, and as far as when that may trough, I mean, if the, if the deposit costs are close to troughing, I mean, we're at least, you know, 3-4 quarters out as far as that remix or the, you know, the, the benefit coming through on that, on those loan yields, given what you're seeing today?

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Yeah, I mean, our models show if rates stay steady where they are, that we'll continue to see increases through all of 2024.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah. Okay, perfect. And then, appreciate all the color on credit. Just as far as kind of the reserves and actually, you know, kind of recording a provision this quarter, just kind of how to think about that in the context of, you know, where credit's at. Obviously, you're pretty good outside of the one fraud situation this quarter, but just any, any thought on how we should think about modeling that or projecting going forward, given the credit environment?

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah, I think, from a provision expense perspective, it's going to be a replacement kind of a trading dollars on a replacement side, meaning that we'll provide for charge-offs, with potentially some release in the ACL. As far as charge-offs go, I think we've given guidance in the past of those being between 10 and 20 basis points a quarter.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. And just your thought, John, on the, as far as credit goes, you know, kind of you talked about this mix being, you know, pretty good, you know, at least maybe better than the other portfolio. But just within the traditional portfolio, you know, where are the concerns today? I mean, we've seen, you know, a handful of other banks have some issues this quarter and just, you know, kind of ongoing. But if you look to your portfolio as far as where the, you know, the greater, you know, I guess, what you're maybe more mindful of today, you know, or looking, paying more attention to, can you give us any thoughts there?

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah. You know, Brian, when I think about, you know, potential impacts from higher rates, I think about it in the construction portfolio, just because what you underwrote to and the appraisals that you had potentially, upfront, are gonna necessarily, drive tighter, cash flow coverage. When I think about, you know, the broader portfolio, you know, across the spectrum, within the commercial loan portfolio, you know, we underwrite, we stress, we do multivariable stress tests upfront on our C&I borrowers. And so, there's not one particular portfolio that I'm looking at, that concerns me maybe more than another.

But even in the construction portfolio, and as we know, you add new names, those are requiring additional capital, as are, you know, as I mentioned in that portion of my speech, Brian, around the sponsor finance portfolio. The things we're underwriting today, I feel pretty good about because they have the higher interest rates already built into them. So I don't know if that answers your question. You know, I wish I could say it was this portfolio or that portfolio, but generally speaking, to this point, you know, absent the and I'm not gonna use the word idiosyncratic, but the fraud event that occurred. I, you know, maybe construction, but that would be it.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. And getting the renewals today on some of these, you know, credits, the commercial real estate credits, has that been a problem, you know, given, you know, the increase in rates that are coming, you know, to these folks? Or I guess, has that been, you know, those loans really are getting renewed without an issue at this point today?

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Well, well, what happens, Brian, at some level is that when you have a construction project, you've got a conversion covenant or requirement that they need to meet in order for them to, you know, move to the secondary market. With higher short-term rates, the way we measure it on short-term rates, it's tighter. You know, we're requiring, at maturity, a number of different strategies, but one is potentially additional capital being put in, maybe marginal right-sizing, maybe additional guarantees, additional collateral. From a, you know, extend and pretend, as the industry, my colleagues like to say, you know, it's more just a strategy around, you know, what to do when interest rates maybe are challenging on a particular project.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Got you. Okay, I appreciate it.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

I think it's safe to say most of those loans aren't going through a renewal process. They're moving in the secondary market. Those are strategies we would employ if we needed to, but if we had a problem. Today, we're not necessarily seeing any of that, right?

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Right. On a renewal, as renewal specific, if I'm understanding your question, something that might have had a renewal after 3 or 5 years, you know, borrowers have had the opportunity to increase rental rates and, you know, change the dynamics of an individual project, so, or an individual property. So we haven't seen issues necessarily related to, you know, a borrower's inability to get renewed as a result of the higher, higher interest rates.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Yep. No, I appreciate it. I was really talking about the commercial real estate, not construction, but I appreciate [crosstalk] all the commentary on it and just trying to understand that.

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah.

Brian Martin (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you for taking the questions.

John Martin (Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Valerie, I assume, does that conclude, the Q&A portion?

Operator (participant)

Mr. Tamayo had a question, but his line may be muted. Okay, so that does conclude our Q&A portion. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Hardwick for any closing remarks.

Mark Hardwick (CEO)

Great. Thanks, Valerie. You know, I, I hope you can hear the confidence that we have in our business model. Our margins are healthy, our capital is strong, our efficiency is in top quartile kind of performance range, and more importantly, we're confident that we will continue to achieve, achieve our growth rates for both loans and deposits into the future. And, if we do that, we're taking care of the needs of the community that we serve, and likely, it's taking care of all of our stakeholders. So, we appreciate your time today. We appreciate your investment and interest in First Merchants. Look forward to talking to you soon.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating, and have a great day. You may all disconnect.