PF
Primis Financial Corp. (FRST)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 GAAP diluted EPS was $0.11, down from $0.14 in Q4 2024 operating EPS; EPS missed Wall Street consensus of $0.25, while operating EPS of $0.14 also fell short of estimates *. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Net interest margin expanded to 3.15% from 2.90% in Q4 2024 and 2.84% in Q1 2024, driven by lower deposit costs (2.52% vs. 2.80% in Q4) and loan repricing yields >7% .
- Management outlined a path to >1% ROA via rebuilding earning assets to ~$3.75B (+21 bps ROA), mortgage contribution (+15 bps), and technology core consolidation savings of $6–$7M annually (+~15 bps ROA), with expected 5–10 bps NIM expansion in Q2 2025 .
- Mortgage and warehouse momentum accelerated: mortgage locks $257M (+27% q/q); March locks $110M (+53% y/y); warehouse outstandings $115M (+80% q/q) and commitments $487M .
- A $0.10 dividend was declared (54th consecutive), and consumer program risk continued to abate (promo loans down to $17.2M; reserves on consumer portfolio 16% of gross), reducing volatility .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Net interest margin improved 25 bps q/q to 3.15% as deposit costs fell 28 bps to 2.52%, with new loan production at ~7.20% yields and additional repricing ahead .
- Mortgage business inflected: ~$0.8M pre-tax profit vs. a ~$0.4M loss in Q4; locks $257M (+27% q/q) with March locks $110M (+53% y/y); new teams in Nashville, Wilmington, Raleigh, Austin add ~$500M annual production potential .
- Warehouse lending scaled rapidly: balances $115M (+80% q/q); commitments $487M (vs. $349M in Q4); noninterest-bearing deposits tied to warehouse at $11M .
- Management expects technology core consolidation to save $6–$7M per year and add ~15 bps to ROA; normalized run-rate ROA was 0.56% in Q1 .
- Nonperforming assets remained low at 0.28% of total assets and no OREO; noninterest-bearing deposits edged up to $446M .
Quotes:
- “We believe our normalized operations show material improvement... positioned well.” — CEO Dennis J. Zember, Jr.
- “Net interest margin in the first quarter was 3.15%... Core bank cost of deposits remained very attractive at 183 basis points.” — CFO Matthew Switzer
What Went Wrong
- Reported EPS $0.11 missed consensus; nonrecurring professional fees and a $1.9M CECL reserve related to consumer portfolio pressured results *. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Consumer program drove elevated net charge-offs ($11.3M, with $10.8M from consumer) despite lower provision ($1.6M); charge-offs expected to remain high as portfolio runs off, albeit with adequate reserves .
- Core operating expense burden, while improved, remains elevated; core expenses were ~$20.3M (down $3.2M q/q), with management targeting ~$18–$18.5M post-tech consolidation but most savings likely impacting 2026 .
Financial Results
EPS vs Prior Periods and Estimates
Notes: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Highlights:
- EPS missed by 0.14 vs consensus (0.11 vs 0.25); operating EPS 0.14 also below 0.25. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Revenue Components vs Prior Periods
S&P Global Revenue vs Estimates (for context)
Notes: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Margins and Efficiency
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our focus is on measured earning asset growth back to the $3.75 billion level of 2024... harvesting cost savings... and enjoying the earnings lift from 2024’s and 2025’s recruiting success in mortgage.” — CEO Dennis J. Zember, Jr.
- “We expect to complete the analysis in the second quarter of 2025 and believe the savings could be approximately $6 million to 7 million per year or another 15 basis points improvement in ROA.” — CEO
- “Net interest margin in the first quarter was 3.15%... Core bank cost of deposits remained very attractive at 183 basis points... new loans with yields well over 7%.” — CFO Matthew Switzer
- “We believe we’ve neutralized the noise and volatility [in the consumer portfolio]... the remaining portfolio of promotional loans are reserved at 75% of principal... additional provision booked.” — CEO
- “Collectively, that puts us on track to exceed the 1% ROA goal we've set out for ourselves.” — CFO
Q&A Highlights
- Profitability cadence: Management sees Q2 improvement across core bank, mortgage, and warehouse; average earning assets already up ~$60M in April; professional fees to recede; Panacea deconsolidation targeted .
- Margin guide: +5–10 bps NIM in Q2; +10–15 bps by year-end, supported by loan repricing +100 bps vs book and stable core deposit costs (~1.83%) .
- Expense trajectory: Core noninterest expense around ~$20.3M; exit rate targeted at ~$18–$18.5M post core consolidation; most savings likely in 2026 .
- Credit/consumer runoff: Charge-offs to remain elevated but provisions expected to be modest given 16% reserves/discounts on consumer portfolio; promo book projected ~$4–$5M EOY; standard book 20–30% paydown in 2025 .
- Panacea deconsolidation: Possible effective date 3/31; fair value election with third-party valuation; prior reference point just under $20M pre-tax at 2023 capital raise; timing contingent on GAAP analysis .
Estimates Context
- EPS: GAAP diluted EPS $0.11 vs. S&P Global consensus $0.25 — miss; operating diluted EPS $0.14 also below consensus *. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Revenue: S&P Global “Revenue” actual $56.997M vs. consensus $26.882M — beat*. Note company-reported net interest income $26.364M and noninterest income $7.757M, with NIM expansion and lower deposit costs driving improved spread income *. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Revisions risk: Street likely to lower near-term EPS given nonrecurring costs and consumer runoff yet maintain improving margin trajectory and fee income from mortgage/warehouse, while raising revenue outlook tied to earning-asset rebuild and mortgage momentum .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Margin expansion is the near-term catalyst: deposit costs down, loan repricing >7% yields, and warehouse growth support NIM; management guides to +5–10 bps in Q2 and +10–15 bps by YE .
- Earnings power rebuilding: Concrete pathway to >1% ROA via earning-asset growth back to ~$3.75B (+~21 bps), mortgage mix/profitability (+~15 bps), and core consolidation savings (+~15 bps) .
- Mortgage businesses are inflecting: stronger locks, recruiting capacity (~$500M), and seasonal tailwinds should lift fee income and ROA contribution in 2025 .
- Consumer credit overhang is diminishing: promo loans down to ~$17.2M; reserves/discounts at 16% to absorb elevated charge-offs without outsized provisions; volatility should fade over 2025 .
- Potential accounting catalyst: Panacea deconsolidation could add a material fair value gain and reduce quarterly operating drag (~10 bps ROA improvement), pending GAAP analysis and valuation .
- Expense discipline offers leverage: core opex targeted ~$20–$21M/quarter in 2025; tech consolidation aims for ~$18–$18.5M exit run-rate, driving operating leverage as assets grow .
- Dividend steady: $0.10 declared; capital and TCE ratios stable, with book value per share at $14.38 and tangible book $10.59 .
Notes: Any values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.