Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Record Net Sales and Earnings Growth: First Solar achieved record net sales of $4.2 billion in 2024, representing a 27% increase year-over-year. The company's full-year diluted EPS of $12.02 represents a 55% increase over the prior full year results.
- Strong Earnings Guidance for 2025: For 2025, First Solar is forecasting earnings per diluted share of $17 to $20, which at the midpoint represents an approximately 50% increase over 2024. This strong guidance indicates confidence in future profitability.
- Expansion of Manufacturing Capacity: First Solar is constructing a $1.1 billion Louisiana manufacturing facility, expected to begin commercial operations in the second half of this year. Once ramped, this expansion is expected to increase global nameplate manufacturing capacity to over 25 gigawatts by 2026.
- Gross margin decreased from 50% in the prior quarter to 37% in the fourth quarter, due to factors such as warranty charges, shipment delays, and increased logistics costs. This decline may indicate potential profitability challenges.
- The company faced higher-than-anticipated ramp-related charges, including material usage and spare parts consumption amounting to approximately $4 million, which could negatively impact operating costs and margins.
- Uncertainty in the policy environment following the U.S. elections has led to a challenging supply-demand allocation, with an underallocation of international production. This uncertainty may affect future demand and revenue visibility.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +30.6% | Total Revenue increased to $1.514 billion in Q4 2024 from $1.159 billion in Q4 2023, primarily driven by robust growth in modules revenue, which reflects continued high demand and effective pricing strategies that built on improvements seen in previous periods. |
Modules Revenue | +30.6% | Modules Revenue rose from approximately $1.158 billion in Q4 2023 to $1.514 billion in Q4 2024, largely due to increased volume and a higher average selling price; this strength follows earlier period gains where sales momentum and operational enhancements were already evident. |
Operating Income | +15% | Operating Income improved to $456.8 million in Q4 2024 from $397.8 million in Q4 2023, reflecting better gross profit margins and controlled operating expenses, an evolution from earlier cost improvements and revenue growth in prior quarters. |
Net Income | +12.4% | Net Income increased to $393.1 million from $349.2 million YoY, driven by higher net sales and efficient cost management, continuing the positive trends established in previous quarters despite challenges such as warranty charges impacting certain product lines. |
Basic EPS | +12% | Basic EPS climbed from $3.27 in Q4 2023 to $3.67 in Q4 2024, largely reflecting the higher net income and stable share count, indicating that profitability improvements have been effectively translated into stronger earnings per share compared to the prior period. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings per diluted share (EPS) | FY 2025 | $13.00 to $13.50 | $17 to $20 | raised |
Operating income | FY 2025 | $1.48 billion to $1.54 billion | $1.95 billion to $2.3 billion | raised |
Gross margin | FY 2025 | $1.95 billion to $2.00 billion | $2.45 billion to $2.75 billion | raised |
Net sales | FY 2025 | $4.1 billion to $4.25 billion | $5.3 billion to $5.8 billion | raised |
SG&A Expense | FY 2025 | $445 million to $475 million | $180 million to $190 million | lowered |
Capital expenditures (CapEx) | FY 2025 | $1.55 billion to $1.65 billion | $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion | lowered |
Year-End Net Cash Balance | FY 2025 | $0.5 billion to $0.7 billion | $0.7 billion to $1.2 billion | raised |
R&D Expense | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $230 million to $250 million | no prior guidance |
Production Start-Up Expense | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $60 million to $70 million | no prior guidance |
Ramp and Underutilization Costs | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $50 million to $60 million | no prior guidance |
Full-Year Tax Expense | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $100 million to $120 million | no prior guidance |
Module Sales | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 18 to 20 gigawatts (with U.S. Production: 9.5–9.8 GW; India Domestic: ~1 GW) | no prior guidance |
Average Selling Price (ASP) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately $0.29 per watt | no prior guidance |
Global Production Forecast | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 18 to 19 gigawatts (U.S.: 9.2–9.7 GW; Southeast Asia: 5.8–6.1 GW; India: 3–3.2 GW) | no prior guidance |
Section 45X Tax Credits | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $1.65 billion to $1.7 billion | no prior guidance |
Operating margin | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 38% | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
EPS (Diluted) | FY 2024 | $13.00 to $13.50 | $12.01 (sum of Q1: 2.20, Q2: 3.25, Q3: 2.91, Q4: 3.65) | Missed |
Operating Income | FY 2024 | $1.48B to $1.54B | $1.394B (sum of Q1: 243M, Q2: 373M, Q3: 322M, Q4: 457M) | Missed |
Net Sales | FY 2024 | $4.1B to $4.25B | $4.206B (Q1: 794M, Q2: 1,010M, Q3: 888M, Q4: 1,514M) | Met |
Capital Expenditures | FY 2024 | $1.55B to $1.65B | $2.739B (sum of Q1: 413M, Q2: 365M, Q3: 434M, Q4: 1,526M) | Missed |
Year-End Net Cash | FY 2024 | $0.5B to $0.7B | $1.012B (calculated from Q4 2024 cash: 1,621M minus total debt: 610M) | Beat |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Financial Performance and Earnings Growth | Q1 and Q2 discussions centered on strong EPS figures, revenue growth, improved gross margins and robust full‐year guidance. | Q4 focused on record net sales and full‐year EPS guidance, but highlighted a lower Q4 gross margin due to discrete items like warranty charges and tax credit discounts. | Consistent earnings growth overall, but Q4 sentiment turns more cautious due to one‑off costs affecting quarterly margins. |
Manufacturing Capacity Expansion and Investment | Q1 and Q2 emphasized rapid facility expansions (Alabama, Ohio, Louisiana, India), aggressive investments in R&D and innovation (CuRe technology, perovskite development). | Q4 reiterated capacity growth with record net additions and new production lines, while noting ramp‐related charges and higher costs in some facilities. | Ongoing expansion and investment remain a central theme, though Q4 reveals minor execution challenges and ramp issues. |
Policy, Regulatory, and Trade Uncertainty | In Q1 and Q2, attention was given to AD/CVD petitions, potential tariff changes, political uncertainty around the IRA, and debates over trade remedies to counter dumping. | Q4 discussions became more pointed with updated AD/CVD rates in Southeast Asia, heightened tariff impacts (including Section 232 on aluminum) and policy-induced regional challenges in Europe and India. | Persistent uncertainty with an increased regulatory sting in Q4, indicating a more challenging external policy environment. |
Operational and Supply Chain Challenges | Q1 mentioned shipment delays, ramp-related costs, and potential excess inventory concerns while Q2 had limited coverage aside from ramp costs and an IT outage incident. | Q4 provided detailed accounts of significant shipment delays, ramp-related charges at multiple facilities, and rising logistics/warehousing costs due to inventory buildups. | Operational challenges have intensified by Q4, highlighting worsening supply chain and ramp-related issues. |
Pricing and Margin Dynamics | Q1 and Q2 reports focused on steady pricing (around $0.31–$0.33 per watt) and improved margins (with Q2 margins near 49%), driven by favorable mix and Section 45X tax credits. | Q4 maintained a stable ASP near $0.30 per watt, but margins compressed significantly (down to 37% in Q4) because of warranty costs, shipment delays, and tax credit discounts. | While pricing remains steady, Q4 experiences pronounced margin pressure from discrete cost factors compared to earlier optimistic margins. |
Customer Backlog, Bookings, and Demand Volatility | Q1 and Q2 highlighted a robust backlog with strong pipeline bookings and selective contracting, though concerns were flagged about contract terminations and delivery shifts. | Q4 continued to show a strong backlog with details on shifted deliveries, higher contract terminations, and a back-end weighting of revenue collection, reflecting increased demand volatility. | Demand remains robust, but Q4 reveals growing volatility with more contract terminations and shipment adjustments impacting near‑term collections. |
Emerging Demand Segments: Data Centers and Corporate Customers | Q1 and Q2 underscored the rising importance of renewable supply for data centers and corporate customers, noting significant energy demand growth and new large-scale supply agreements. | Q4 contains no mention of these segments. | Previously emerging as an important growth driver, this topic is absent in Q4, suggesting a reduced emphasis or shift in focus during the most recent period. |
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Warranty Expenses Impact
Q: Are warranty costs capped at $100 million, and are issues resolved?
A: Management confirmed that Series 7 production issues have been resolved, and current modules are performing as expected. The warranty expense is estimated at $56 million, with a potential maximum of $100 million. They believe the risk of exceeding this amount is low based on current information. -
Shipment Guidance and India Volume
Q: How are shipment and revenue guidance affected by India volume?
A: They guided shipments of 18 to 20 GW, with about 1.4 GW of unsold volume, half from India. They expect to sell the remaining 1 GW of India volume at current market prices and see minimal risk in sell-through. -
Cost Per Watt and Warehousing
Q: Are cost per watt tracking ahead of expectations?
A: Cost per watt produced is close to targets at around $0.20 for 2025, but period costs have increased due to warehousing and tariffs. Warehousing costs are estimated at $250 million, significantly higher than expected, affecting cost per watt sold. Management considers some of these costs as transitory.