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FIRST SOLAR (FSLR)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

First Solar Q4 2025: Revenue Beats, But Guidance Craters Stock 10%

February 24, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

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First Solar reported Q4 2025 results today with a mixed quarter: revenue topped estimates by 7% on strong module shipments, but EPS came in below expectations. The real story, however, is 2026 guidance that landed 17% below Street consensus—sending shares down approximately 10% in after-hours trading.

Did First Solar Beat Earnings?

Mixed quarter: Revenue beat, EPS missed.

MetricQ4 2025 ActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue$1.68B $1.57B+7.3%
EPS (Diluted)$4.84 $5.24-7.6%
Full Year Revenue$5.22B $5.12B+1.9%
Full Year EPS$14.21 $14.68-3.2%

Revenue increased $0.1B sequentially, driven by higher module volumes sold. For the full year, net sales grew 24% to $5.2B from $4.2B in 2024, fueled by a 24% increase in third-party module volume.

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What Did Management Guide?

2026 outlook came in well below Street expectations—the key driver of the after-hours selloff.

Guidance Comparison

Metric2026 GuidanceStreet ConsensusGap
Net Sales$4.9B - $5.2B $6.1B*-17%
Adjusted EBITDA$2.6B - $2.8B $3.2B*-15%
Volume Sold17.0 - 18.2 GW ——
Capital Expenditures$0.8B - $1.0B ——
Net Cash (Year-End)$1.7B - $2.3B ——

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The guidance assumes the current U.S. policy environment persists and that permitting processes remain consistent with historical levels.

Q1 2026 Cadence: Management expects Q1 module sales between 3.4 GW and 4.0 GW, with Section 45X tax credits of $330M-$400M, resulting in Q1 Adjusted EBITDA of $400M-$500M.

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Net cash position surged, but growth expectations moderated.

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Change
Net Sales$1.59B $1.68B +5.5%
Net Income$456M $521M +14.3%
EPS (Diluted)$4.24$4.84 +14.2%
Net Cash Balance$1.5B$2.4B +60%

The significant increase in net cash was primarily driven by additional proceeds from the sale of 2025 Section 45X tax credits and operating cash flows, partially offset by Louisiana facility capex.

Key developments in Q4:

  • Louisiana factory commissioned
  • Announced new South Carolina facility
  • Maintained disciplined pricing approach focused on pricing and delivery certainty

How Did the Stock React?

TimeframePriceChange
Prior Close$242.15—
Regular Session Close$243.21+0.4%
After-Hours~$219-10%
52-Week High$285.99—
52-Week Low$116.56—

The sharp after-hours decline reflects investor disappointment with 2026 guidance coming in significantly below expectations, despite the Q4 revenue beat. The stock had rallied +16% over the prior three months leading into earnings.

What Did Management Say?

"Our growth journey continued into 2025, with the commissioning of our new Louisiana factory and our decision to establish a new facility in South Carolina. As we navigated a rapidly evolving environment, we maintained a disciplined approach to contracting and remained anchored in our core principle of pricing and delivery certainty, a key differentiator that our customers value."

— Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer

Management emphasized pricing discipline as a core differentiator, suggesting willingness to prioritize margins over volume growth—which may partly explain the below-consensus revenue outlook.

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Full Year 2025 Summary

MetricFY 2025FY 2024YoY Change
Net Sales$5.22B $4.21B +24%
Net Income$1.53B $1.29B +18%
Diluted EPS$14.21 $12.02 +18%
Operating Cash Flow$2.06B $1.22B +69%
Adjusted EBITDA$2.36B ——

Balance Sheet Highlights

MetricDec 31, 2025Dec 31, 2024
Cash & Equivalents$2.80B $1.62B
Total Assets$13.32B $12.12B
Total Debt$498M $610M
Stockholders' Equity$9.54B $7.98B
Net Cash$2.4B $1.5B

First Solar ended 2025 in a strong financial position with $2.4B net cash and total equity of $9.5B.

Key Risks to Watch

Management flagged several risks in the earnings release:

  • Policy uncertainty: Tariffs, export controls, and trade remedies impacting solar modules and supply chains
  • IRA implementation: Section 45X tax credit availability and monetization timing
  • Customer concentration: Risk of large customer losses or contract terminations
  • Technology execution: Ability to execute module technology and cost reduction roadmaps
  • Competition: Structural supply/demand imbalances in global PV module market
  • Permitting: Guidance assumes permitting timelines remain consistent with historical levels

Forward Catalysts

Near-Term:

  • Q1 2026 results (module sales 3.4-4.0 GW expected)
  • Section 45X tax credit monetization progress
  • South Carolina facility construction updates

Medium-Term:

  • Full-year Louisiana factory production ramp
  • 2026 contracting activity and pricing trends
  • Policy clarity post-2025 on IRA implementation
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The Bottom Line

First Solar delivered solid Q4 execution with revenue beating by 7% and a strong balance sheet. However, the 2026 guidance reset—with revenue 17% and EBITDA 15% below Street expectations—is the dominant takeaway. Management's emphasis on "pricing discipline" suggests they're prioritizing margin sustainability over volume growth, which may limit near-term upside but positions the company defensively if policy or demand headwinds intensify.

Key numbers to remember:

  • Q4 2025: Revenue +7.3% beat, EPS -7.6% miss
  • 2026 guidance: $4.9B-$5.2B revenue vs $6.1B consensus
  • Stock: Down ~10% after hours
  • Cash position: $2.4B net cash, up 60% QoQ

Source: First Solar Q4 2025 8-K filed February 24, 2026