Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Recurring revenue is growing at low double digits, demonstrating the resiliency of Fortive's portfolio and supporting future growth .
- Fortive is confident in driving double-digit EPS growth and double-digit free cash flow, even on slightly lower revenue than anticipated, highlighting strong operational execution .
- Orders in the Precision Technologies segment are expected to grow in the second half, and the company is confident in this improvement .
- Customers are delaying orders due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in military and government sectors, leading to pushouts in R&D investments, which may negatively impact Fortive's revenue growth.
- Fortive's software businesses may face increased competition from cheaper AI-enabled products, posing a risk of customer churn and potential impact on growth, despite management's assurances to the contrary.
- Analysts express skepticism regarding Fortive's optimistic revenue and margin guidance for the second half of the year, given smaller backlog and macroeconomic uncertainties, suggesting that achieving their targets may be challenging.
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Revenue Guidance Confidence
Q: How confident are you in your Q3 and Q4 revenue guide?
A: We expect normal seasonality in revenue, with some businesses like IOS and AHS performing as expected, and we've derisked PT. On a two-year stack basis, our performance is similar. We anticipate orders in PT will grow in the second half, giving us confidence in our revenue outlook. -
Q4 Margin Increase
Q: How will you achieve the significant Q4 margin increase?
A: We expect margins to increase from 27% to over 29% in Q4, with about 60% sequential fall-through from Q3 to Q4, similar to last year's dynamics. This is driven by the top line, proactive restructuring, and productivity actions, resulting in yearly incrementals at 60%. -
2025 EPS Target of $4.50
Q: Can you still reach your 2025 EPS target of $4.50?
A: While $4.50 is both aspirational and achievable, we remain confident due to tailwinds like health care and new product innovation. We may utilize buybacks and M&A to reach this goal and will provide an update as we get closer to 2025. -
Tektronix Performance Downturn
Q: Why has Tektronix's expected performance declined?
A: We now expect Tektronix core growth to be down low double digits, previously expected to be down mid-single-digit. This is due to mil/gov business moving out and China not recovering as anticipated. Despite this, the three-year CAGR remains mid-single digit. -
EA Revenue and Synergies
Q: What is the outlook for EA revenue and capturing synergies?
A: We have derisked EA, expecting revenue of $130 million, down from earlier expectations. Orders haven't disappeared but investments are pushed to 2025. Our synergy opportunities are ahead of plan, with the funnel doubling and setting up for future growth. -
China Growth Decline
Q: How is China's performance affecting results?
A: China has worsened within our guide, but the rest of Asia is performing better. China now represents about 10% of sales, with high-growth markets excluding China at 14%. We have reduced our expectations for China due to the slower-than-anticipated recovery. -
Cuts in Cyclical Markets
Q: Are you late in adjusting to cyclical market downturns?
A: We don't believe we're late. Unusual factors like mil/gov spending delays and China's government actions not gaining traction have impacted us. We have been prepared from a cost perspective, ensuring strong margins and EPS growth despite lower revenue. -
Software Competitive Risks
Q: Are cheaper AI-enabled products causing risks to your software business?
A: We are not seeing disintermediation or competitive threats. Accruent and ServiceChannel are accelerating, and we believe in leveraging AI within our vertical expertise. We remain confident in our software businesses and their positions. -
M&A Strategy Focus
Q: How are you approaching M&A given current market conditions?
A: We'll continue to be selective and disciplined in our M&A strategy, focusing on bolt-on acquisitions that strengthen our workflows and growth platforms. We are not seeing many deals transacted currently due to valuation misalignments, but feel confident in our acquisition strategy's long-term benefits. -
Pricing Outlook
Q: What is your pricing outlook for the rest of the year?
A: We expect overall pricing to be in the 2%–3% range, consistent with the first half. In health care, we're working hard to incorporate pricing into contracts. This outlook reflects a slight moderation from prior years. -
Bridging to 2025 EPS Target
Q: How will you bridge to the 2025 EPS target with incremental improvements?
A: With IOS and AHS on a good path towards 2025, we plan to continue cost savings and productivity measures, particularly in PT. We'll manage spending to stay on the right glide path to achieve our EPS goals. -
AHS Growth Prospects
Q: Is AHS set for an extended period of good growth?
A: Yes, the ASP business has been performing well for several quarters, and we're launching new product innovations. With the innovation flywheel moving and strong commercial execution, we're optimistic about sustained growth in AHS. -
Industrial and Factory Automation Trends
Q: Can you characterize recent trends in industrial and factory automation?
A: Health care and IOS performed well throughout the quarter. Fluke had a strong quarter, with the industrial business up mid-single digits. However, larger projects are moving to the right, and China's recovery is being pushed out, affecting the Sensing side within PT. -
Customer Investment Delays
Q: Why are customers pushing investments to the right?
A: Customers are delaying investments due to a combination of geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors. In mil/gov, uncertainties around defense budgets lead to R&D investment delays, as these are easier to postpone than production spending. -
Lower Tax Guidance
Q: What's driving the lower tax guidance for the second half?
A: The main factor is the deferral of Pillar 2 minimum global tax rate impacts, which won't affect us this year. This resulted in a lower expected tax rate for the second half. -
IOS Margin Performance
Q: Why were IOS margins down year-over-year in Q2?
A: Margins were down nominally by 20 basis points due to mix. On a two-year stack, margins are up 300 basis points, and we expect margin expansion to continue at a normal rate in Q3 and Q4. -
Europe and Asia Sales Outlook
Q: What's your confidence level in Europe and Asia sales guidance?
A: We've slightly lowered our expectations for Europe but maintained guidance within the low single-digit range. Health care is performing well in Europe. For Asia, while China has worsened, the rest of Asia is better, supporting our maintained guidance. -
Preparedness for Market Changes
Q: How are you adjusting to changing market conditions?
A: We've derisked our outlook where appropriate and continue to focus on cost management and productivity. Our portfolio's resiliency allows us to maintain strong margins and EPS growth even with lower revenues.