Forward Air - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for joining Forward Air Corporation's second quarter 2023 earnings release conference call. Before we begin, I'd like to point out that both the press release and webcast presentation for this call are accessible on the Investor Relations section of Forward Air's website at www.forwardaircorp.com. With us this morning are CFO, Tom Schmitt, I'm sorry, CEO, Tom Schmitt, and CFO, Rebecca Garbrick. By now, you should have received the press release announcing our second quarter 2023 results, which was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and on the wire yesterday after the market closed.

Please be aware that certain statements in the company's earnings press release announcement and on this conference call are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements which are based on expectations, intentions, and projections regarding the company's future performance, anticipated events or trends, and other matters that are not historical facts, including regarding our expected third quarter 2023 and fiscal year 2023. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. For additional information concerning these risks and factors, please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the press release and webcast presentation relating to this earnings call.

The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. During the call, there may also be a discussion of financial metrics that do not conform to U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or GAAP. Definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the press release issued, which is available in the Investors tab of our website. Now I'll turn the call over to Tom Schmitt, CEO of Forward Air.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you, John, and good morning to all of you on the call. Let me lead off with five points before opening it up for questions and comments. The first point, we just, we just finished the third disappointing quarter in a row. It's been a very tricky freight recession for our team and our customers, and it came in phases. We have seen the worst in our main show, the LTL business, in the fourth quarter of last year, and also in the first quarter of this year. Truckload and brokerage, as often in a freight recession, has had a prolonged demand and pricing low. As we started coming out of the low for the LTL business in the second quarter, our intermodal drayage business saw its bottom for both its core revenue, but also for its accessorial services, especially the storage fees.

The second point I want to make upfront is Grow Forward is working. That's our initiative that's focusing us on high-value freight, priced appropriately in a very, very clean, best in industry operating environment and made accessible increasingly to a larger customer base. As I said on the last call, it's working, and we won't see the full results in 2023 yet. Our industry-leading best service from best on time performance, 99%, to lowest damages, claim ratio of 0.1%. It matters when you deal with shipments of consequence. Still, as we saw in a freight recession, customers do trade down. We saw that with our year-over-year tonnage. If you go back all the way to the last quarter of last year and the very beginning of this year, our tonnage per day was down 15%.

For the full first quarter, it was down by 12%. Second quarter, we just finished 7% down. Most recently, we've seen a lot of kind of close to flat and very, very positive trend. This week, so far, we are seeing +7% year-over-year tonnage. The freight mix also keeps getting better as well, with the weight per piece and the weight per shipment going up. The third point I want to make upfront, the Yellow impact will accelerate the momentum. At this point, I do have to start with just a personal note, as I know quite a few people who actually worked at this iconic company, Yellow. I do feel for the thousands who gave their all for so many years, 99 years, I think, in total, at this iconic company.

I truly hope and wish that many of those great professionals will find another great professional home soon. On a pure business front, capacity leaving the market will further cement pricing discipline in our industry, and we clearly will be part of a very disciplined pricing group. We also should see some volume benefits in the more dense lanes and for shipments that benefit from our industry-leading precision execution. This week's +7% year-over-year tonnage is a good observation of that. Fourth point I want to make upfront, and this is more to myself, I do need to get better in forecasting in dynamic, challenging times like we're in. We need to get back to be more conservative and then beat expectations. In that spirit, we are still cautious when we guide towards Q3.

Intermodal and truckload will still have ways to go to get back into full swing. There is LTL momentum, it's building, but we still want to be cautious about the size of that momentum. Import volumes for many of our best business partners and customers are still very subdued. Finally, before we open it up, point number 5, I want to just give you a little bit of a perspective. Sometimes it's important and right to be self-critical. At the same time, it's also important to have some perspective. Let's put this year, 2023, arguably the worst freight year in 15 years, into a bit of a context. 2021, just 2 years ago, was the first of 2 unprecedented freight boom years.

At the time, when we finished 2021, we actually finished with, by far, our best earnings per share in the history of our company at the time. That was just 2 years ago. In a absolute freight bust year, 2023, we still easily expect to beat that 2021 boom year EPS number. That means we're not where we will be yet, but it just means a bit of perspective sometimes helps, too. With that, back over to you, John, and we're going to open it up for thoughts, comments, and questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, for the best audio quality, if you are using a speakerphone, a headset, or a Bluetooth-connected device, we do ask that you switch to your handset before offering your questions or comment. To join the queue, to ask a question or provide comment, please press 1, then 0 on your phone's keypad, and you may withdraw your question or comment by pressing 1, 0 again. Once again, to join the queue, it's 1, 0 on your phone's keypad. We will go first to Jack Atkins. Go ahead, please.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks. Good, good morning, Tom. Good morning, Rebecca. Thanks for taking my question.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Morning, Jack.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

I, I guess, you know, Tom, I'd like to maybe start with what you've been seeing over the last few weeks. It sounds like it's, it's obviously a pretty dynamic situation right now. When you think about the, the, the, the tonnage trends you're seeing, the shipment trends you're seeing in the expedited LTL business, could you maybe give us a little bit more granularity on the last few weeks? What's sort of going on there in terms of, you know, the, the progression and, you know, where, where is that freight coming from? Is it coming from direct shippers? Is it coming from 3PLs? If you could maybe provide some context around that.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, Jack, absolutely. I'll go into July, then we obviously going to go into the first 2 days of August. First of all, the numbers and then a little bit of color behind the numbers. Put the first week of July aside for a second. That was a goofy week. When July fourth is a Tuesday, by all practical means, you're actually losing 2 business days that week. When you go into the second week of July, what we've seen is, in the second quarter of all, was -7% year-over-year. The remainder after the first week of July, I think averaged out roughly at -3. That trend already was going upward.

Again, the last several days was a whole another step up, which we haven't fully built into our forecast. This is the +7% year-over-year tonnage, which is unusual. Week over week, we see sequentially, +4%, +5% the last few weeks. There's a lot of momentum building. The second question is, where is it coming from? Some of it is truly our sales team doing a phenomenal job with our core business partners, helping them and helping us grow again, giving them just great ammunition in their toolkits. Some of our longest standing business partners and customers have been growing with us, even predating some of the Yellow impact.

Very clearly, over the last several days, going into the last week of July, we do see some of our core business partners and customers who also were Yellow customers for long lanes, for some of the more sensitive freight, switching that business over to us. Yes, the Yellow leaving the market will, I think, further accentuate pricing discipline. It probably will help some of the class freight companies that are first class in, in volume directly more than it helps us. We have seen 3PLs, to your point, Jack. We also have seen some of the domestic forwarders that are more focused on the type of freight that Yellow actually was a good carrier for.

We see some of them growing with us in the most recent days, and that clearly is them handing over business that they so far gave to Yellow, to us. We are a, a direct beneficiary, volume-wise, less so than some of the class freight companies, but we are a direct beneficiary. Certainly on the pricing front, we expect, as I said, the pricing discipline to accentuate. July second half, kind of -3%. August so far, +7% year-over-year tonnage.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay. Maybe just following up on July briefly, but I mean, for July in total, what was tonnage in July in total on a year-over-year basis?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

I think it was down -5%, and I think the problem again, was the first week, which was very goofy.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

The rest looked better.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay. July was -5%. It's obviously gotten better over the last few weeks.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Correct.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Then, I guess maybe shifting gears to, to the pricing side. I mean, you know, we look at, like, revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel, there, there's been some downward pressure on that over the last couple of quarters. You know, how do you think that is impacted by what we're seeing from, like, the broader dislocation in the LTL market? Do you feel like you've got some pricing leverage back here? Would you expect to see some sequential improvement in revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

I do believe that the last quarter and the last two quarters that you're looking at were probably the most challenged from a pricing environment, and we should see improvement there in Q3.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Do you think there's the opportunity for a GRI later this year?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Well, let me say it in 2 ways. The answer is, we do GRIs once a year.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

We do it the first week of February. And I think our customers and business partners should rely on that. They don't like it when it comes, but there should be predictability that they can build into their budget and forecasts for the following year. Now, here is what we did do. As we talked about, I mean, times got really, really tough over the last 6, 9 months. We worked with many of our customers, and when they stepped forward with real initiatives to grow together with us, we gave them temporary GRI relief, where they didn't have to pay the full amount. We always talked about, Jack, about capture rates. Capture rates were never 100%. This year it was lower than in the previous couple of years.

What I do expect us to do is, have conversations with some of those customers about, yes, we worked together over the last 6 to 9 months, giving you temporary relief on the GRI. That needs to kind of come back to a more full-time level. It is more the enforcement of the existing GRI at full level versus getting out of sequence or out of cycle. Our customers, they do deserve some reliability and planning predictability, and we don't do 2 or 3 GRIs a year.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

No, that, that, that makes sense, Tom. I guess, other opportunities would be accessorials and then, you know, the degree to which, you know, you're going through, you know, negotiations with customers is on normal course of business in the back half, half of the year. I mean, do you feel like that when you put all that together, that could have a, a positive impact on pricing sequentially in the third quarter?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Absolutely. Again, I think the point that I made in my opening remarks about guidance for Q3, some of the what we just saw in the last few days is not fully built in. Some of that pricing discipline, positive outcome may not be fully baked, baked in. I do want to get us back on track to a point where we are, and you've been fairly vocal about this, rightfully so, where we are more consistent in terms of making forecasts and beating forecasts. So that's why I believe we're appropriately cautious at this point, but we like what we see.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay, got it. Last question, and I'll, I'll hand it over. You know, could you maybe talk about peak season? What are your customers telling you about their plans for the back half of the year? Maybe are you beginning to see... If you kind of strip away the, the impact from Yellow, it may be hard to, to do that. Are you beginning to see some signs that there's a little bit of improvement in underlying demand, or is it just too early to make a call?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

It's probably too early to make that call. There's, there's quite a few of our customers who said, like, yes, they've seen their order books, getting fuller, but there's also some customers to be very blunt about it, where they say, "We don't see a peak, this year. There's no indication of that coming." In my mind, we need to focus on what many people call self-help. Like, let's control what we control, which is, working with our customers to earn more of their business. I oftentimes talk about a slice-of-pie game, and the size of the pie is not growing. If there is more of an uplift in, in the third and fourth quarter, that will be additional benefit on top of what we're, what we're looking for and what we're guiding towards.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you, Tom. Appreciate the time.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thanks, Jack.

Operator (participant)

Next, we'll go to Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Scott Group (Managing Director)

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Morning, Scott.

Scott Group (Managing Director)

Tom, can you share what is the tonnage you're assuming in the third quarter guide? You said a few times you're not assuming everything you've gotten in the last week. What is the actual tonnage you're assuming in the guide?

Rebecca Garbrick (CFO and Treasurer)

Yeah, Scott, so we, we are assuming that, you know, tonnage would be positive in the third quarter, so we're expecting that to be, you know, year-over-year, north of, you know, somewhere north of 5%, for Q3.

Scott Group (Managing Director)

Okay. If so it sounds like you are assuming that you keep it the rest of the way because tonnage was down -5% in July.

Rebecca Garbrick (CFO and Treasurer)

Yeah. We expect August and September to be a bit better, you know, as we look at it, you know, from a sequential kind of July, August, September standpoint. That's right.

Scott Group (Managing Director)

Okay. Then maybe just, you know, there's been a lot of mix changes. Can you just, as, as the tonnage has spiked, maybe just talk about what's going on with weight per shipment, what's going on with length of haul? Obviously, that's had an impact on, on some of the revenue numbers. Any, any color on what's happening as, as the tonnage levels are spiking?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Scott, weight per shipment has been going up again. We, we always like it when the number starts with an eight. 800 pounds is what we, what we have seen most recently. It typically tends to be what has been the traditional kind of true air freight that goes from one airport to another airport, tends to be lower weight than door-to-door shipments. We have had quite a bit of success over the last several months with our 3PL shippers, and those tend to be door-to-door shipments. Door-to-door shipments going up tends to actually help the weight per shipment, and that's what we've been seeing.

The second thing that's also important is, as we are getting, again, more and more high-value freight, less of the lower-weight e-commerce, we also tend to get a typical weight per piece and weight per shipment benefit. It is a factor of two levers. The first lever is more door-to-door shipments. The second lever is continued improvement of our freight mix.

Scott Group (Managing Director)

How about length of haul?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

... length of haul, we're getting longer again, and that's what we ultimately, based on our operating model with team drivers oftentimes going on the long distances, we tend to be extremely competitive when it comes to speed, but also to low damages with the drivers taking turns driving and sleeping, and only being one loading process, one unloading process at the end. We want to actually compete and win on the longer haul business. Our sales team and our pricing team are very focused on that.

Scott Group (Managing Director)

Right. Ultimately, what I think I'm trying to get at is: What's, you know, what's the margin differential between, like, the, the, the legacy airport-to-airport and maybe some of this, more traditional LTL type freight?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

It's, it's actually mostly differentiated, Scott, by customer group. You're right, airport-to-airport on average, is still more profitable than door-to-door. We do have some customer groups, though, where, where we, like, events is a great example, from a, events divisions of some of our customers. Airlines are a great example, where some of it actually goes to an ultimate destination, and we actually benefit from that, too. Airport-to-airport still is the jewel in terms of profitability, but we are walking up the door-to-door business also.

Scott Group (Managing Director)

Okay. I mean, do you, do you think that because I assume what you're winning right now is sort of the door-to-door LTL type freight, so there, there should, there could be some degree of a, of a margin mix headwind as we take some of this on? Is that, is that right?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

That's from a mix perspective, that's fair. Again, we always said, with Grow Forward and our high-value freight focused, with the pricing that's appropriate, that we expect when you put fuel aside, positively or negatively, that we see margin expansion in our LTL business. You're correct from a mix perspective, door-to-door makes it harder, and still, we expect to see margin expansion once you put fuel aside. Yes, that number should be going on an OR perspective towards 80, or on a margin perspective, towards 20%.

Scott Group (Managing Director)

Makes sense. Okay. Thank you for the time, guys. Appreciate it.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Okay. Thanks, Scott.

Operator (participant)

We'll go next to Bascom Majors with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Bascom Majors (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Tom, you're certainly not alone in having this year turn out in transportation different than maybe you expected in January or February. I do think it's easier for us to understand some of those drivers and some of the businesses that have a lot more public comps and, and be able to compare. You know, your business is, you know, unique in, in the mix and the airport-to-airport focus in your largest business. I'm just curious if you could back up to kind of how you felt about the year in January or February, and how you feel about it now.

The one or two most meaningful drivers of that change in outlook, and maybe just let us know how confident you are that those levers are kind of close to a bottom or even getting a little better, and if there are any pieces of that that may actually have some risk of getting worse or just more uncertain as we look forward two, three, four quarters. Thank you.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, Bascom, good morning. Let me just kind of walk you through over time, what we saw and how some of that remained consistent and how some of it changed. The first thing I would say is, as we were planning for 2023, we clearly were of the school that I think a lot of people were on, some there were skeptics though, which said: Somehow inventory will be depleted by the end of the second quarter to levels where normal shipment sizes and shipment volumes should start happening again in the second half of 2023. That was the kind of a predominant school of thought going into 2023.

If you ask me, kind of as we went into the second quarter and now certainly where we're sitting today, I think that was, that was too optimistic. I think those voices that said early on, I think, Bascom, I think you were one of them, that, that this freight recession could be lingering on longer, I think turned out to be more right. So that's one, I think, expectation to some extent, hope that we shared that second half, which kind of start seeing this uptick. And at this point, we are looking at 2023 as a year where, again, we have to win a slice-of-pie game with our customers because we're not banking on the size of the pie growing in the second half.

The second thing is, is that we probably were expecting what we saw on the LTL side, with the, the fourth quarter last year being difficult, the first quarter this year being difficult, and the second quarter starting kind of to see some uptick with our direct, small, medium-sized business customer selling, in addition to working with our core business partners. What we were somewhat unpleasantly surprised by, I also mentioned in the opening comments, the intermodal drayage business, which really, really has been a rock-solid, double-digit margin performer, seeing a similar but slightly time-delayed absolute bottom in the second quarter, specifically in the months of April and May. We didn't expect it to come down that hard.

The accessorial fees we talked about, we knew storage fees at some point with the supply chains being unclogged, would be normalizing, but the basic core revenue came down harder than what we expected. That was another lesson learned for us. We knew truckload and brokerage would be challenged in a freight recession. We knew LTL downtrading would be happening temporarily. The intermodal drayage business, we probably saw more consistent in our forecasts. then it ended up being specifically in the second quarter. Now looking forward, I do believe the bottom is behind us. I do believe on the LTL side, not only because of the Yellow impact, but certainly also bolstered by the Yellow impact. On the LTL side, there is momentum building, quantity and quality of the freight. That Grow Forward program is working.

On the intermodal drayage side, I do believe we also, with a slight time delay, are working our way out of that bottom. Truckload and brokerage, I think, is going to be still sluggish over the next several months. That's why I'm saying this year probably will go into the books as kind of a tough freight recession year. I do believe in every single one of our business lines, we have seen the bottom, and the momentum on the LTL side is perhaps the most pronounced of all of them. We don't talk as much about the final mile business, but it's worthwhile noting the delivery and installation of high-value appliances.

That team actually has held up extremely well by winning additional markets with our customers and also by winning additional logos, meaning serving customers that we didn't use to serve a year or 2 ago. Each business in line, I think we have seen the bottom. The momentum in the LTL business is probably the strongest. Final mile is, is pretty solid, coming along. Truckload brokerage may be the one that's most challenged, and I think in intermodal drayage, the third quarter will be better than the second quarter.

Bascom Majors (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

I, I really appreciate that comprehensive response, Tom. Thank you.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Okay, thanks, Bascom.

Operator (participant)

For additional questions or comments, press one zero, please, if there's anyone else that needs a question or comment. Okay, we have now Stephanie Moore from Jefferies. Go ahead, please.

Stephanie Moore (VP Equity Research)

Hi, good morning. Thank you.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Morning, Stephanie.

Stephanie Moore (VP Equity Research)

Morning. I maybe just as a follow-up to a prior question, just so I have everything clear. Just for your 3Q guidance, and I appreciate all the color and the puts and takes. Does your guidance assume, just to be clear, normal seasonality, but it does not assume kind of an uptick you have seen thus far from some of the Yellow diversion volumes?

Rebecca Garbrick (CFO and Treasurer)

Yeah. Stephanie, it does assume, yes, the seasonality, and it assumes, not necessarily, you know, the, the benefit of the Yellow, but it assumes with, as Tom mentioned, you know, what's in our control and some of the pipelines that we have, you know, that we've won and we're seeing. We're doing things, you know, in our own, you know, what's in our own control, and so that's what we're, we're baking in. You know, at the time that we prepared the forecast, you know, Yellow really hadn't been settled at that point in time. It's really, you know, seasonality plus what's in our control and what we see in our pipeline.

Stephanie Moore (VP Equity Research)

Got it. No, that's helpful. Then maybe just, you know, on that, you know, kind of what's what you're seeing in your pipeline or what's in your control. Can you talk a little bit about your customer mix or verticals and, you know, where you are seeing some of that you know, good demand or, and then other areas that, you know, might still be a little weak?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. A lot of the consumer good, import businesses, so think of international forwarders, still significantly down. I mean, when we are down with them, like, go back to the first quarter, in some cases, for us to be down in DOV tonnage in January and February by 15%, some of the import-driven business at the time was down by 20%, 25%. When you talk to those same international forwarders today, they still see very, very sluggish import and also very depressed rate levels, coming specifically from Asia when it comes to consumer goods. We notice that, we see that. Again, while we are focusing on more high value, more sensitive freight, we call it shipments of consequence, we do have high-end consumer goods as part of it, and that's still depressed.

When you talk about more of the industrial goods space, automotive, events, medical, we see very strong demand. We see our customers being kind of focused on initiatives in those spaces. That's, that's working. I would say high-end consumer goods, more sluggish, more kind of robust, resilient industrial goods, we see a very, very good demand pattern, and frankly, also demand increase.

Stephanie Moore (VP Equity Research)

Okay. No, that, that's helpful. Then maybe more on, on a housekeeping question, and, and I apologize if I missed it and you said it, but I think, you know, last quarter, you kind of gave some color on a, you know, revenue per ton per mile ex fuel, airport-to-airport, and then, and then door to door. Did you give those numbers for this quarter?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

We actually did not give those numbers, but revenue per ton mile is, is a, is a metric we, we follow closely. We actually did not publish it. What we most likely, Stephanie, will be doing is because we are only 4 weeks away from being 2 months into this quarter, in the mid-quarter update, we'll give you the same metrics that we gave last time. We're very focused on them.

Rebecca Garbrick (CFO and Treasurer)

Yeah. Stephanie, I don't have it in front of me, you know, by month, but I can say, you know, revenue per ton, again, per line haul mile ex fuel, for the quarter is up 1.5%.

Stephanie Moore (VP Equity Research)

Okay.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

And that in-

Stephanie Moore (VP Equity Research)

Got it.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

We're big fans of that metric because that's what we get paid for, moving a shipment the same amount of distance. Fuel is not part of that, and if that, if that number goes up, that tells us that either the freight mix or our ability to price it appropriately or both, is moving in the right direction.

Stephanie Moore (VP Equity Research)

Right, right. No, that, that makes sense. Then maybe lastly for me, just talk a little bit about your appetite for M&A. You know, maybe in this environment, there might be an opportunity to, you know, maybe be opportunistic with some deals, but what are your thoughts regarding, you know, ongoing M&A? Thank you.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, M&A is always part of our capital allocation and part of our strategy. We always talk about we want to grow in double digits. It's a combination of organic and M&A. Good example is our Intermodal drayage business, where we always build out geographically and kind of, and, and industry-wise, our footprint. We haven't had a Intermodal drayage acquisition this year. The year is not over yet, and we always focus on finding out finding spaces where we get stronger. I would expect us to have a good chance of seeing something there. On the LTL side, with Landair Express, we already had a great addition to our team earlier this year. M&A is a big part of who we are and what we do, and we continue pursuing that.

Stephanie Moore (VP Equity Research)

Appreciate it. Thank you for all the color.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thanks, Stephanie.

Operator (participant)

We'll go back to Jack Atkins with Stephens Inc. Go ahead, please.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Just from the, the call so far. You know, when we go back to the comment, Tom, that you made on the GRI capture rate, this year being lower than what you've seen in the past, is there a way to kind of maybe put some framework around that? You know, what portion of the GRI was captured this year? You know, what's a reasonable expectation, you know, as we kind of look forward over the next maybe quarter or so?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. Typically, our expectation would be that GRI capture rates would be in the 70% or higher space. By the way, to be very clear, the only way we, we tend to mitigate is when we have specific initiatives in place for specific customers to grow with us, where in exchange for that growth, and that's profitable growth, we mitigate percentage points of that GRI. That's what we've done historically. We've done less of that in 2021 and 2022, and we've done much more of that this year. If you take 75% as kind of a good middle ground, and the, the other 25% being mitigated for growth purposes, this year, we definitely were way below that 75%. In a 2021 or 2022 boom scenario, we were higher than that.

Over the next several weeks and months, we do expect Nancee Ronning, our Chief Commercial Officer, Melissa Fieser, our Senior VP of Sales, and their teams, to work with our customers on looking back at the mitigation that we gave them over the last six months, and to some extent, playing catch up. I'd like to get closer, perhaps not for the average of the year, but closer to that typical expectation that 75% is captured and the rest is mitigated for the right reasons.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay, got, got it. Then I guess maybe just going back to the, to the tonnage comment, because I think that, you know, it's, it's a little bit confusing for folks, you know, in terms of if you think about the expectation for the third quarter. You know, July was down -5%, but you had the, the challenging sort of first week just with the calendar. You know, if you, if you kind of think about the back half of the quarter, back two months of the quarter, I, I guess, help us square the, the revenue guidance, which is, I have to go back and look, but down pretty significantly with, with the, the idea that, that tonnage in your largest business is going to be up 5%.

I mean, it would seem like if tonnage is up 5%, your revenue wouldn't be down as much as what you're guiding to.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, let me start, then Rebecca can correct me. The one thing that, that we have not talked much about, and I frankly prefer looking at things apple f- like apples to apples and not letting fuel drive the discussion. In our -- in fuel, we always go with industry forecasts, and we always tend to ta- take the kind of the 1 or 2 most respected energy institute kind of forecasts, and then, that's what we build in. The forecast for the third quarter is tremendously low, so it's actually, I think, around $3.50 or so is where, where it's built. That level of fuel right now is higher than that.

If you look at even the gas pump over the last few days, personally, that number has been going up again. Part of what you see on the revenue front for Q3 is us building in what the Energy Institute said, which is a very low fuel number.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay, got it. I guess maybe thinking about the margin impact from the incremental tonnage that you're seeing, you know, I get the mix shift between, you know, core expedited business versus, you know, door-to-door business and, you know. As you're thinking about layering on incremental tonnage that's heavier weight per shipment, you know, on an existing cost structure, the incremental margins, to your point, should be higher than the existing airport, the existing expedited LTL margins that you saw in the second quarter, right? In theory, as you're capturing this incremental tonnage, that should drive margin expansion sequentially, if it continues. Is that fair?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Absolutely correct. Yeah, capacity utilization is a big deal, and that number going up definitely should help us with margin expansion.

Jack Atkins (Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay, that's all I had. Thanks again for the time.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Okay, thanks, Jack.

Operator (participant)

Next, we'll go to Andrew Cox with Stifel. Go ahead, please.

Andrew Cox (Research Associate II)

Hey, good morning, Tom, Rebecca. Andrew, on for Bruce.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Morning, Andrew.

Andrew Cox (Research Associate II)

Morning. Hey, I just wanted to kind of check in on industry service levels. We've been hearing reports that, you know, missed pickups are starting to accelerate across the industry, given the kind of flood of tonnage that has, has hit the market. Just kind of wanted to know if, if you guys are seeing that, and if so, what are the things that you guys are focused on to, to balance the opportunity and, and maintaining network fluidity at the same time, and making sure that you keep the progress you've made over the last few years?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, Andrew, actually, a very, very topical question, and one that we, in every single QBR, QBR, quarterly business review with, with our customers, are focused on. The first thing I should say is, and this is a big testament to, Justin Lindsay, Tim Osborne, Chris Ruble, our operations leadership, and the, the entire teams. We do have, by any standard, the best service in the LTL industry in North America, and that's industry data I'm using here, not our own scorecards. We had, and I think we put this in the release, we had the 99% on-time level, and we have very, very few kind of exceptions and exemptions. These are real numbers. We are not perfect, and we strive to get closer to perfection every single day, and we'll never get there.

We have operating principles that we built over 4 decades and be honed and sharpened, that are really built around handling very, very sensitive freight and, and basically having airline-type schedules in mind. We barely miss pickups. We again, we have a claim ratio of 0.1%. We do hear, Andrew, a lot what you're talking about. Frankly, this is a great conversation for us to have with our customers. When they rely on other carriers, and they do see some of the symptoms that you're mentioning, we actually love helping our customers when they need for those types of shipments, absolute certainty or closest to absolute certainty. They have the best place to go to in that size. It is something that's more and more of a topic.

It will probably intensify, and frankly, we are on the right side of that topic by being a great choice.

Andrew Cox (Research Associate II)

If I'm hearing correctly, over time, you expect that the freight will eventually find a home, some will end up finding the best service home, and that it tends to be you.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

That's that's our aspiration, and that's what we're competing for every single day.

Andrew Cox (Research Associate II)

Great, that makes sense. If I can, if I can follow up, I do want to have... I know we kind of briefly touched on final mile earlier, but I just wanted to talk about pricing in the final mile business. We've, we've heard one of the larger peers kind of have successfully taken some pricing actions over the last six to nine months. I just wanted to see your, you know, your opinion of the, the trends in pricing at that final mile.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, always going to be competitive. Lots of rebids going on. We have to re-earn markets with our existing customers. Price is always a key topic. Having said that, we tend to do, this is what unites us across all of our forward business units, we tend to focus on service excellence. We tend to focus on, as, again, as we said, shipments of consequence. That's true for final mile, too. This is delivering installation, in most cases, of high-value appliances. We do try to be extremely cost competitive. We tend to win on service.

The reason why our final mile margins, expectation is, is in the high single digits and not in the low single digits, is exactly that value creation and that ability to capture a good part and an earned part of that value, by being the best in, in service. As a reminder, again, in 2021, one of the most challenging and, in a good way, tough business partners, The Home Depot, made us their appliance carrier of the year, and this was definitely earned by the exceptional service that our final mile team is providing.

Andrew Cox (Research Associate II)

Okay, great, Tom. Rebecca, thanks so much for the time.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thanks, Andrew.

Operator (participant)

Next we'll go to Christopher Kuhn with the Benchmark Company. Go ahead, please.

Christopher Kuhn (Senior Analyst)

Yeah, hi, Tom. Hi, Rebecca. Good morning.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Hi, Chris.

Christopher Kuhn (Senior Analyst)

Sorry to go back on the volume. I just wanted to clarify, Rebecca, the, the, the volume guidance, does that include some Yellow in there? I just want it to be clear on that.

Rebecca Garbrick (CFO and Treasurer)

Yeah, so it, it, it doesn't. You know, it, it, what it includes, right, is, is, you know, just to kind of go back, right, to think about where we are at the beginning of this year. You know, we acquired, you know, Landair, so we got, you know, five new terminals. We opened up our Chicago terminal, you know, in Q1 of this year. You know, we've been winning, you know, new business through those terminals, and so kind of getting into new markets. I think that's, you know, an important point that I want to, you know, want to make as we're thinking through our pipeline and some of the customer wins and reiterate, you know, what Tom has said about, you know, kind of winning that bigger slice of the pie.

When we think about, you know, our guidance, when we think about, you know, Q3, right, we're seeing some of this momentum that's coming through. We built our forecast based on, you know, those new terminals and what we're seeing there, you know, new slices of the pie that we're winning. That, plus seasonality, you know, it's helped to drive, you know, how we think about the forecast for Q3.

Christopher Kuhn (Senior Analyst)

Okay, great. Then, just on the intermodal, Tom, I mean, I think you mentioned that you, you feel like that's the bottom in 2Q, and just the reasons why that might be? Are you expecting import activity to pick up or accessorial charges to be less of a drag?

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. Again, if you look at the first half, the intermodal drayage business still in the first half was a double-digit margin business. In all fairness, this will be a tall order for this year, for the full year, to be a double-digit margin, just based on the trend that we saw in the 2nd quarter. We do again, and back to Rebecca Garbrick's point about pipeline, we do see an increasing pipeline in the intermodal drayage business. Imports are still sluggish, but that team is winning more, again, slice of pie, perhaps more than a slice of pie business, where we win big share of wallet. What I see in the activity, the pipeline, and using typical close rates makes me more excited about the intermodal drayage business in Q3 compared to Q2.

It is commercial activity by our team, Mike Brandano and his colleagues specifically, driving more revenue upside in Q3 than we saw in Q2. I do believe we have, we have seen the bottom, and the bottom is behind us.

Christopher Kuhn (Senior Analyst)

Okay. Okay, perfect. Thanks, guys.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thanks, Chris.

Operator (participant)

We have no additional questions in queue at this time.

Tom Schmitt (Chairman, President and CEO)

Okay, well, thank you, John, and thank you to all of you, dialing in for the call.