Executive Summary

Q1 2025 revenue was $613.3M (+13.2% YoY, -3.1% QoQ) with operating margin improving to 0.8% from -12.1% YoY; GAAP EPS was -$1.68 and net loss was -$61.2M, with strong liquidity of $393M driven by positive operating cash flow .
Expedited Freight pricing actions drove yields higher: revenue per hundredweight ex-fuel rose 4.3% sequentially and 2.5% YoY; Expedited reported EBITDA margin reached 10.4% (up ~400 bps QoQ) as the company shed poorly priced freight and cut costs in near real-time .
Consolidated EBITDA (credit-agreement defined) was $68.96M (LTM $313M) and first-lien net leverage was 5.3x with a ~$66M covenant cushion, improving sequentially .
Preliminary guidance for Q1 was raised from $54–$59M Consolidated EBITDA (Apr 9) to $66–$70M (Apr 21) before reporting $68.96M actual; management estimates 2024 tariff-exposed revenue at 10–15% and clarified Expedited LTL exposure “below 10%” on the call .
Key stock narrative catalysts: visible yield recovery at Expedited Freight, covenant cushion and liquidity stability, ongoing strategic alternatives process, and tariff/macro updates that management views as manageable .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Rapid pricing normalization in Expedited Freight: “final action was February 6… back half of the quarter, we began to see the improvement… reported EBITDA margin for the quarter up almost 400 basis points from last quarter” .
Yield metrics improved: revenue per hundredweight ex-fuel up 4.3% QoQ and 2.5% YoY; revenue per shipment ex-fuel up 4.1% YoY .
Liquidity and cash generation: liquidity increased to $393M QoQ on positive operating cash flow; Q1 free cash flow was $16.4M .

What Went Wrong

GAAP EPS and net loss remained pressured by high interest expense ($45.5M) and tax expense ($19.6M) despite improved operating profit; net loss was -$61.2M .
Expedited Freight tonnage and shipments fell YoY (pounds -10.9%, shipments -12.2%), reflecting market softness and deliberate shedding of low-margin freight .
Consolidated revenue declined QoQ (-3.1%) with Omni Logistics essentially flat sequentially and Expedited Freight down QoQ as pricing changes and macro volatility weighed on volumes .

Financial Results

Consolidated Actuals vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$541.8	$632.8	$613.3
Operating Margin (%)	-12.1%	12.0%	0.8%
GAAP EPS ($)	-2.81	-1.24	-1.68
Net Income ($USD Millions)	-$88.8	-$35.8	-$61.2
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	-$51.7	-$30.5	$27.6

Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Q1 2025 Consensus	Q1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$617.2*	$613.3
Primary EPS ($)	-0.484*	-1.68
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$58.6*	$68.96 (Consolidated EBITDA, credit-agreement defined)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Note: S&P Global “EBITDA” consensus may differ from the company’s “Consolidated EBITDA” definition used in its Credit Agreement, which includes pro forma and other adjustments .

Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Segment Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025	YoY Change
Expedited Freight Revenue ($USD Millions)	$273.3	$249.4	-$23.9 (-8.8%)
Expedited Freight Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$19.5	$15.6	-$3.9 (-19.8%)
Omni Logistics Revenue ($USD Millions)	$224.8	$323.5	+$98.6 (+43.9%)
Omni Logistics Operating Income ($USD Millions)	-$28.6	$3.4	+$32.0
Intermodal Revenue ($USD Millions)	$56.3	$62.5	+$6.2 (+11.0%)
Intermodal Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$3.6	$5.5	+$2.0 (+54.5%)

KPIs (Expedited Freight)

KPI	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Pounds (000s)	684,995	670,168	610,635
Pounds per Day	10,703	10,471	9,693
Total Shipments	828	783	727
Shipments per Day	12.9	12.2	11.5
Revenue per Hundredweight ($)	31.32	29.70	31.19
Revenue per Hundredweight, ex Fuel ($)	24.15	23.74	24.76
Revenue per Shipment ($)	259.14	254.30	262.04
Revenue per Shipment, ex Fuel ($)	199.78	203.26	208.03

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Consolidated EBITDA (Credit Agreement)	Q1 2025	$54–$59M (Apr 9)	$66–$70M (Apr 21)	Raised
Liquidity (Cash + Revolver Availability)	End-Q1 2025	~$392M expected (Apr 9)	$393M actual (May 7)	Raised/Delivered
Tariff-Exposed Share of 2024 Revenue	2024 Baseline	10–15% company estimate (Apr 9)	Expedited LTL “below 10%” (call)	Clarified (segment exposure lower)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Pricing/Yield in Expedited LTL	Q3: Expedited underperformed due to mix/pricing; planning corrective actions . Q4: corrective pricing actions implemented; full run-rate by end of Feb .	Ex-fuel yield +4.3% QoQ, +2.5% YoY; reported EBITDA margin 10.4%; shed unprofitable freight and cut costs in real time .	Improving yields and margins.
Tariffs/Macro	Q4: low single-digit ex-China exposure; focus on cash conversion; $170M annual interest burden .	10–15% of 2024 revenue potentially tariff-impacted; Expedited LTL exposure “below 10%”; consumer confidence is key KPI; seasonality weaker April/stronger May .	Manageable exposure; monitoring demand.
Regional/Service Mix	Q4: platform of global, vertically integrated services .	88% U.S. customers; ~1% Mainland China, ~5% Hong Kong; Intermodal focus East Coast/Gulf, limited West Coast port exposure .	U.S.-centric revenues; East Coast drayage concentration.
Competitive Landscape (Premium LTL)	Q4: peers exploring A2A networks .	Competitors “playing” but lack true network; limited pricing competition seen; focus on quality and appropriate rates .	Defensible differentiation.
Strategic Alternatives	Q4: process launched Jan 6; no details forthcoming .	Discussions commenced; no updates until material; focus remains on operations .	Ongoing process; not guiding results.

Management Commentary

“Our goal is to double the business over the next 5 years going from the $2.5 billion revenue entity that it is today to $5 billion… assumes we return to a normal freight environment” — CEO Shawn Stewart .
“We’re pleased… we began to see the improvement… reported EBITDA margin for [Expedited Freight] was 10.4%… up almost 400 basis points from last quarter” — CEO .
“Net debt to consolidated LTM EBITDA was 5.3x… maximum allowable 6.75x… $66 million cushion at quarter end” — CFO Jamie Pierson .
“Cash flow from ops… increased quarter-over-quarter… total liquidity at the end of the quarter [was] $393 million” — CFO .
On competition: “People… playing in the space, but they don’t have true networks… we’re focused on quality and market competitive rates” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Tariff exposure: Expedited LTL exposure “below 10%” with buffer due to uncertainty of origin from U.S. DCs; overall company estimate 10–15% potentially impacted; de minimis (321) change affects e-commerce small parcel more than Forward’s dense cargo .
Pull-forward dynamics: Limited evidence; late-March uptick likely seasonal/project-driven; management hopes for Q2 strength .
Pricing run-rate and margins: Half-quarter benefit in Q1 from Feb 6 actions; easy comps in 2024; network optimization to sustain margin improvements; path toward peer-like mid-teens EBITDA margins over time .
Intermodal and regional focus: East Coast/Gulf-centric drayage; limited West Coast port exposure; seeing drayage shipments and revenue per shipment up YoY .
Competitive dynamics: New A2A entrants lack bespoke network; Forward focuses on service quality and appropriate pricing, not share at low margins .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 actual revenue of $613.3M modestly missed S&P Global consensus of $617.2M; GAAP EPS of -$1.68 was well below -$0.484 consensus, primarily reflecting high interest/tax burdens despite improved operating margin .
Company-reported Consolidated EBITDA was $68.96M versus S&P Global “EBITDA” consensus $58.6M; note definitions differ (company’s credit-agreement “Consolidated EBITDA” includes pro forma and other adjustments) .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Expedited Freight pricing normalization is working; yield and margin improvements are visible and should continue to support sequential margin recovery as volume stabilizes or returns; near-term trading: watch April/May seasonality and tariff headlines .
Liquidity and covenant headroom reduce downside risk; ~$66M cushion and $393M liquidity provide operational flexibility amid macro volatility .
EPS volatility likely persists until interest expense moderates and tax benefit/expense normalizes; operating profit improvement not yet flowing through to GAAP EPS due to capital structure .
Intermodal continues steady execution with YoY improvement; East Coast/Gulf focus aligns with current routing dynamics and may benefit if West-to-East shifts persist .
Omni Logistics sequentially stable with improving operating profitability vs prior year; warehouse/value-added services strength offsets softer forwarding pricing; medium-term thesis: integration and back-office transformation to unlock growth .
Strategic alternatives create an overhang but also optionality; management is progressing discussions while emphasizing operational execution; catalysts include any decision on portfolio actions or deleveraging steps .
Estimates likely need to reflect higher yields but cautious volumes; revenue trajectory depends on macro/consumer confidence; watch updated disclosures on service/region mix and Expedited margin trajectory through 2025 .

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