The Greenbrier Companies - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and welcome to The Greenbrier Companies' 3rd quarter of fiscal 2023 earnings conference call. Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Each analyst should limit themselves to only two questions. Until that time, all lines will be in a listen-only mode. At the request of The Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference to Mr. Justin Roberts, Vice President and Treasurer. Mr. Roberts, you may begin.

Justin Roberts (VP and Treasurer)

Thank you, Anthony. Good morning, everyone, welcome to our third quarter and fiscal 2023 conference call. Today, I'm joined by Lorie Tekorius, Greenbrier's CEO and President, Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer, and Adrian Downes, Senior Vice President and CFO. Following our update on Greenbrier's performance in Q3 and our outlook for fiscal 2023, we will open up the call for questions. In addition to the press release issued this morning, additional financial information and key metrics can be found in a slide presentation posted today on the IR section of our website. Matters discussed on today's conference call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Throughout our discussion today, we will describe some of the important factors that could cause Greenbrier's actual results in 2023 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of Greenbrier. With that, I will hand the call over to Lorie.

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

Thank you, Justin, Good morning, everyone. I hope everyone's enjoying the start to summer. Yesterday, hopefully, you saw that we announced that Pat Ottensmeyer will join the Greenbrier board of directors. I'd like to publicly welcome Pat to our board and look forward to working with Pat to get his perspectives on the freight rail market, as well as his insight into the US-Mexico activity. As many of you know, Greenbrier hosted our inaugural Investor Day on April 12th. For those of you who are unable to attend in person or via webcast, the replay will be available on our website for a short period of time, The full presentation will be available forever at the SEC website. During the 3-hour event, we touched on four areas. First, our leadership position in our markets. Second, our diverse manufacturing capabilities and long track record of innovation.

Third, our strong lease origination capabilities and differentiated syndication model. Lastly, the consistent improvement in our financial performance across economic cycles. We also laid out Greenbrier's strategy to increase margins in our manufacturing segment, grow our recurring revenue base through lease fleet investments, and follow a capital allocation strategy focused on returning value to shareholders. While it's only been two months since that Investor Day, I'm pleased to share the progress we've made in each of these areas. In some cases, we're ahead of our own internal schedules, and in others, we're laying the foundation to execute our strategic plan. As I briefly recap results for this quarter, I'll highlight some achievements towards these goals with the important caveat that we do not expect our progress to be linear, and our strategic plan and targets contemplate a five-year time horizon.

Turning to the quarter, we generated revenue of $1 billion. Our deliveries totaled 6,600 units, down from Q2 due to the timing of syndication activity. While revenue dipped slightly compared with the prior quarter, aggregate gross margin improved by 190 basis points to 12.3%. Increasing our aggregate gross margin to the mid-teens by fiscal 2026 is one of the targets we provided during the Investor Day, and we're pleased to report the progress on that front. Gross margins in manufacturing of 9.6% increased 260 basis points compared with the prior quarter, as some of the efficiencies we discussed during the Investor Day materialized more quickly than expected. While there will be unforeseen issues that occur during some quarters, we're confident that many of the efficiencies achieved thus far will continue.

In particular, supply chain issues that have been a recent headwind seem to be largely in the rearview mirror. As we've discussed previously, we're bringing fabrication in-house for basic primary parts and subassemblies as part of our make versus buy strategy. The first phase of this work will be completed in the fourth quarter that we're in today, and we expect to achieve our full cost savings targets of $50 million-$55 million in fiscal 2025. Additionally, in the quarter, we completed the sale of Gunderson Marine in Portland as part of our capacity rationalization plan that's expected to result in annual savings of $15 million-$20 million. These are costs that are getting taken out of the system permanently. Gunderson Rail completed its last railcar on May 18th, after shipping over 110,000 units since 1985.

I'm extremely pleased to share that Gunderson's new owner will retain many of the hardworking production workforce at that facility. Moving across the business, maintenance services continue the positive momentum seen since the start of the year, despite ongoing labor challenges. Their margins continue to improve sequentially on improved pricing, volume, and the operating efficiencies we've been focused on establishing over the last two years. Expecting a strong end to the year from this segment. As Brian will discuss shortly, we've laid the foundation for our expanded leasing strategy. This is an important component of our multi-year plan and is expected to result in the doubling of recurring revenues within the next five years. The market backdrop for leasing remains very positive, and we're in a great position to execute our plan. Returning to capital to shareholders is an integral part of our capital allocation strategy.

I'm pleased to report that our board increased our quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.30 per share yesterday. Our dividend has doubled since its reinstatement in 2014 and illustrates the importance the board places on this activity. The broader economic background is somewhat mixed, with several factors creating economic crosscurrents. Despite the ongoing economic murkiness, our outlook in North America remains unchanged, with railcar deliveries to be at or near replacement levels for the next few years. In Europe, there's softness in demand for intermodal wagons. This is being more than offset by the bulk rail freight sector, where we continue to see strong demand across wagon types. Backdrop aside, at the company level, we continue to take actions to create a stronger, more sustainable Greenbrier.

We're confident in the long-term strategy we set forth during our Investor Day and our team's ability to execute on that strategy, which is focused on the things we can control and not reliant on an overly optimistic demand scenario. I look forward to sharing our progress towards these targets on future calls. Now I'll turn it over to Brian to discuss the railcar demand environment and our leasing activity.

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

Lorie. Q3, Greenbrier secured new railcar orders of 4,600 units worth $650 million. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we received orders for 7,900 units valued at $975 million. Orders continue to be broad-based and diverse across most railcar types, with the exception of intermodal. As of May 31st, Greenbrier's global backlog was 23,400 units, valued at $2.9 billion. This figure excludes the 7,900 units ordered after the end of the quarter. As a reminder, our new railcar backlog does not include 1,000 units valued at $85 million that are part of Greenbrier's railcar conversion program. Despite weakness in freight volumes, the railcar demand environment remains stable due to pent-up replacement demand and tight supply, and we continue to see healthy railcar inquiries and orders for a variety of railcar types.

We are pleased with the performance of leasing and management services in the quarter. Our lease rates on renewals are increasing by double digits, and we are extending lease terms while maintaining a high fleet utilization of nearly 99%. In terms of the underlying leases, the durations are staggered to both mitigate the impact of cyclicality and create upside potential through favorable renewals. We do have a high volume of renewals in 2024, resulting from the portfolio we purchased in September of 2021, and we are actively working to renew these leases ahead of their expiration. As we described during the Investor Day, we intend to grow our fleet more steadily over the coming years, and we have committed to invest $300 million per year for each of the next 5 years on a net basis.

We remain focused on railcar types that will maintain a balanced fleet portfolio and reduce concentration risk. I want to emphasize that we will only invest in the right assets with the right lease terms and counterparties. During Q3, we funded $54 million of debt from our non-recourse leased railcar warehouse facility, backed by $72 million of assets, and have funded a total of about $120 million through the warehouse over the last two quarters. As you may have seen in our press release this morning, we recently upsized our warehouse facility to $550 million from the prior $350 million borrowing capacity to support our growth plans. The terms of the upsized facility are unchanged. Fourth quarter fleet activity in the warehouse facility will continue to be leveraged at a 75% debt-to-equity ratio.

We are regularly evaluating our financing strategies as we prepare to meaningfully increase the size of our lease fleet, with the goal of more than doubling recurring revenue in the next 5 years. As you heard during the Investor Day from William Glenn, who heads Greenbrier's European operations, we are building a leasing capabilities in Europe. Our entry into the European leasing is well ahead of plan, and the pipeline for leasing deals is robust, including finalizing our first syndication agreement. Our capital markets team syndicated 800 railcars in the quarter, a decrease from Q2, reflecting the timing of production schedules. This market remains liquid and a strong appetite for the asset class, and our team is preparing for another busy year in 2024.

Within management services, we continue to shift our commercial focus and business development efforts towards customers whose needs are more closely aligned with our core competencies as we seek to deepen relationships within our customer base. This is an exciting time for Greenbrier as we work to optimize our manufacturing capabilities and grow the leasing and management business. We have been clear with our growth initiatives. I look forward to updating you on them as we execute on our strategic plan. With that said, I'll hand the call over to Adrian, who will now speak to the financial highlights in the quarter.

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

Thank you, Brian. Good morning, everyone. Before moving into the highlights of the quarter, I would like to remind everyone that quarterly financial information is available in the press release and supplemental slides, which can be found on our website. Our performance in the quarter was strong across all business segments, with improved aggregate gross margin and adjusted EPS in Q3 compared to Q2. Following the highlights of note for the quarter include second consecutive quarter with revenues of $1 billion or higher. Deliveries of 6,600 units was the second highest quarter for deliveries since the fourth quarter of 2019. Includes 200 units from our unconsolidated joint venture in Brazil.

Aggregate gross margin of 12.3% was 190 basis points higher than the prior quarter, resulting from stronger margins in the manufacturing and maintenance services segments, attributed to improved operating efficiencies in both segments and higher pricing and volumes in the maintenance services segment. We expect the operating momentum will continue as a result of the initiatives described during the Investor Day in April. Selling and administrative expense of $63 million is 7% higher from Q2, primarily attributed to an increase in employee-related costs due to higher incentive compensation expense as a result of increased profitability. We had a pretax charge of $17 million related to the sale and exit of our Gunderson Marine business in Portland. The consolidated tax rate of 12.9% was primarily a result of favorable discrete items in Mexico.

Excluding the impact of the Gunderson loss on sale and exit-related costs, adjusted net earnings attributable to Greenbrier of $34 million generated adjusted EPS of $1.02. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was about $97 million or 9.3% of revenue. Turning to liquidity, Greenbrier's operating cash flow turned positive on a year-to-date basis due to strong third quarter results of nearly $98 million, reflecting improvements to operating performance and working capital efficiencies. Our liquidity was $665 million at the end of Q3, consisting of cash of $321 million and available borrowings of $344 million.

The primary use of our cash during the recent quarter included the repayment of $95 million of short-term borrowings on our domestic revolving credit facility, as well as $32 million of share repurchases. As we finish 2023, we expect Q4 liquidity levels to remain strong as operating momentum and working capital efficiencies continue to improve. As highlighted during our Investor Day in April, one of Greenbrier's strategic initiatives is a balanced approach to capital allocation. An integral part of this strategy is to return capital to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. During the third quarter, Greenbrier repurchased 1.2 million shares for $32 million. Between the second and third quarter, Greenbrier repurchased a total of 1.7 million shares for $49 million, of which $3 million was part of the prior authorization program.

Under the current share repurchase program, we have $54 million remaining of the $100 million authorization that extends through January 2025. In addition to significant share repurchase activity, the board increased the dividend by 11% to $0.30 per share, representing our 37th consecutive dividend. Based on yesterday's closing price, our annual dividend represents a yield of approximately 3.7%. Since 2014, Greenbrier has returned over $470 million of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our board and management team remain committed to a balanced deployment of capital designed to create long-term shareholder value. Turning to our guidance and business outlook.

Based on current trends and production schedules, we are raising Greenbrier's fiscal 2023 guidance, which includes the following: Our fiscal 23 deliveries guidance is increased to 25,000-26,000 units, including approximately 1,000 units from Greenbrier-Maxion in Brazil. We are also increasing our fiscal year 2023 revenue guidance to be between $3.8 billion and $3.9 billion. Selling and administrative expenses at approximately $230 million-$235 million, and gross capital expenditures of approximately $280 million in leasing and management services, $90 million in manufacturing, and $15 million in maintenance services, and proceeds of equipment sales are expected to be approximately $76 million. Consolidated gross margin is unchanged, and we expect full-year consolidated margin % to be in the low double digits. In closing, I'd like to reiterate a few points.

We are confident in our long-term strategy, as highlighted at our Investor Day, and believe the best is yet to come. Our management team is incredibly experienced, with a demonstrated track record of success. We are supported by a robust backlog, which provides strong visibility and stability over the coming years. Our liquidity and balance sheet strength allows for opportunistic growth, and as we look to strongly finish our year, we are well positioned to drive shareholder value into in 2024. Now we will open up for questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Again, we ask that analysts limit themselves to only 2 questions. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question will come from Matt Elkott with TD Cowen. You may now go ahead.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

Good morning. Thank you. Lorie, can you maybe first, quick clarification, what was it specifically that made it possible to achieve those manufacturing efficiencies ahead of plan?

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

A great question, Matt. I would say it's tremendous hard work and focus by the men and women in our manufacturing operations. As you'll recall, last quarter, second quarter, we talked about the headwinds that we were struggling with supply chain and our focus on how to reverse that trend. This is one of the areas where we're seeing improvement ahead of what we thought internally we would be able to achieve. As not just Greenbrier, but as many companies have seen over the last several years, supply chain can be one of those things that can be a persistent headwind, or it can pop up. I'm just pleased with the focus and attention and execution in our manufacturing group.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

Got it. Thank you for that. Were there any big orders from a single customer in either the 4,600 in the quarter or the 7,900 after?

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

I will let Brian chime in in a minute if he'd like, but actually, I mean, yes, we have several large orders, but nothing that was really a multi-year or something that drove it. That was strong, diverse demand across a number of customers, car types, commodities, and a nice, healthy combination of lease originations as well as direct sales. Brian, is there anything you'd like to add?

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

No, I think you hit it, Lorie. Matt, you know, basically, it's kind of the normal blocking and tackling. We had several large orders, not just 1 or 2, but also, we had kind of the diversity of what we see every day. Some of it was pent up from earlier in the quarter, which we thought would come in in Q3 and is or in the previous quarter, is now coming in now. It's just kind of the run-of-the-mill, no multi-year orders, just your kind of standard fare as far as the order cadence and order diversity.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

That's good to know, Brian. There was a 10% sequential step-up in the ASP. How much of this was mixed versus other factors? Because after the, you know, for the 7,900 after Q3, I think the ASP goes back down to being 4% below 2 Q.

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

Yeah, I think the mix is a better mix. We're starting to see a little bit more automotive product as well as tank cars into the mix. As you know, one of the focuses of, I think, the industry has been to continue to move, you know, pricing into a better place as well. I think you're seeing a combination of a better mix as well as continued uplift in pricing.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

Okay. Just one last one, if I may. You know, more often than not, your first fiscal half is the lower for, you know, everything, basically, deliveries, margins, earnings. Do you expect this to be the case for fiscal 24, even as this really is a highly anomalous cycle?

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

I'll jump in, and then I can let others join. It, I'm sorry to kind of have a little bit of a chuckle because you're right. We do tend to spike in the second half and then, and are a little bit muted for a variety of reasons in the first half. That has not gone without our own acknowledgment of that trend, and we are very focused on how can we make certain that quarter after quarter, we continue continuous improvement from orders, deliveries, margins, cash flow. You are going to see that sort of focus. Again, it's hard to perfectly predict if there's going be something that pops up, but we're not planning to have the first half of next year be soft.

We're planning for fiscal 2024 to be better than 2023, and we're working to make that be continuous improvement quarter after quarter.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

Got it. Thank you very much, Lorie. Thanks, Brian.

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

Thanks, Matt.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Justin Long with Stephens. You may now go ahead.

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

Thanks, and good morning. maybe to follow up on that.

Justin Long (Managing Director, Equity Research – Transportation)

... point you made, Lorie, when you look at the industry projections for railcar production in 2024 on a calendar basis, a lot of those forecasts are down a decent amount. I'm curious if you could talk about your view on just broader industry production as we move into your fiscal 2024, and based on the backlog you have today, including the orders you've just received here in June, can you speak to your level of visibility to production in 2024 at this point?

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

I would say for 2024, we've got really good visibility. We still do have some pockets where we have open production, but we feel very comfortable about the ability to fill up that space. Right now, what we're seeing in North America is pretty steady production coming out of where we're going to close out the fourth quarter. We don't have any big ramp-ups or any big ramp-downs. We'll have some adjustments, but some of the recent orders that we've received really give us great visibility and continuity on a number of our production lines. The other interesting thing that if you're just looking at the North American statistics, you also have to look at Europe, where we're continuing to focus on how we can serve that market, and we're focused on ramping up production in Europe as well.

It's not quite the same volume as you would see here in North America, but that will be one of the benefits to our deliveries in our fiscal 2024.

Justin Long (Managing Director, Equity Research – Transportation)

Okay, great. That's helpful. I guess shifting to manufacturing gross margins, it was good to see the sequential improvement. Could you speak to how much of that came in North America versus Europe? As we think about manufacturing gross margins going forward, what's your comfort that we'll continue to see some sequential momentum moving into fourth quarter and early next year?

Justin Roberts (VP and Treasurer)

Hey, Justin, this is Justin. I think we saw improvement both in North America and Europe in the quarter. North America has a disproportionate weighting there, just from a size perspective, but both operations performed very well and improved sequentially. Going forward, we would expect that to continue, maybe not quite to the same extent, but we do see improvement in Q4 and into fiscal 2024, which is kind of hard to believe we're talking about already, but such is life.

Justin Long (Managing Director, Equity Research – Transportation)

Okay, good to hear. I'll leave it at that. Thanks for the time.

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

Thanks, Justin.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna. You may now go ahead.

Bascome Majors (Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. As we look forward, I realize we're still a way from next fiscal year, but do you have a sense of the cadence of when you'll put cars on the balance sheet and off the balance sheet in the manufacturing business?

Justin Roberts (VP and Treasurer)

I think at this point, it's, we're not necessarily ready to get into that much detail. I would say that we do see a relatively consistent pattern of that each quarter, over the next 4 to 5 quarters, based on production schedules and backlog.

Bascome Majors (Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you for that. You know, now that most of the supply chain issues in Mexico and the US are behind you, fingers crossed, is Europe accretive to the overall manufacturing margin, or are those pretty even?

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

I would say yes, it is accretive. As Justin said, it's accretive even when you take into consideration the fact of the weighting. I mean, North America is one of the largest freight railcar markets in the world, so it's going to be hard for Europe to upend that, but they're definitely accretive to our margins.

Bascome Majors (Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst)

You know, lastly speaking, can you talk a little bit about the willingness to risk longer-term capital from some of your leasing customers? I know you don't have the same length and, you know, duration and size and multi-years as some of your competitors, but, you know, just what's the appetite for the leasing companies, as we look out the next 6, 12, 18 months? How does that sales channel look, and do you expect that to be supportive of a fairly steady production rate for the industry, you know, over the next year or two? Thank you.

Justin Roberts (VP and Treasurer)

That's a great question, Bascome, and I was going to see if Mr. Comstock can handle it.

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

Yeah. Thanks, thanks, Justin. Thanks, Bascom. One of the, one of the areas, and I think I reported on this maybe last quarter as well, is we are seeing an increased interest by the operating lessors. They're traditionally in the market, but over the last couple of years, due to COVID and other reasons, there's been a little bit of a pullback. We're seeing more and more confidence on the operating lessor side, which is driving, as you suggest, more stability in the manufacturing as well as, you know, some of this order pipeline. We think that's going to continue to build momentum, you know, throughout the rest of this year into next year.

Bascome Majors (Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst)

From the syndication channel, any comments on that customer? Are they starting to get comfortable with the cost of capital and rising interest rates? Just, you know, do you think that is a growth opportunity or at least an opportunity for stability in your business as we look out 6, 12, 18 months?

Justin Roberts (VP and Treasurer)

Justin, I can grab this one as well. Yeah, we do. You know, the returns are still very strong. As you know, interest rates pressures have put a lot of, you know, a lot of, really a lot of pressure on that side of the house. The deals that are coming in all hurdles have the appropriate internal rate of returns. As a result, we're seeing more and more interest. In fact, we're seeing even some new entrants that are inquiring about coming into the space. We feel pretty good from the liquidity standpoint. Long term, we think the syndication customers are pretty comfortable.

Bascome Majors (Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you for your time.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.

Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Great. Good morning. If I could just kind of follow on a little bit on Bascome's question there. Lorie, maybe talk a little bit about the balance of the leased fleet versus the build, you know, for external sales and manufacturing. It seems like we've got a lot of volatility where, you know, maybe it's you'll get the consistency after you get the ramp up. Are you getting closer to the full ramp up on that production for the internal build versus external sales? I just want to understand how we should think about that, you know, given the build to revenue kind of take follow through.

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

Thanks, Ken. Yeah, it's a good question. What's interesting is you have to step back and look at the strength of-

Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hello?

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

Origination. Same customer, same car type, same commodity. While we are growing our on-balance sheet lease fleet, it is still a fairly modest fleet, and sometimes the size of those orders are such that it would really skew our concentration.

Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, Lori, I don't mean to interrupt, your line went quiet for, like, the first third of your answer. I'm sorry to do it, I'm getting IB that other people, it went quiet, too. Do you mind just starting from the beginning there?

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

Oh, my gosh, it was the most brilliant thing I've ever said, Ken. It's probably because every one of our field salespeople was hurriedly calling in because I was complimenting our sales. Can you still hear me?

Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah, perfectly.

Lorie Tekorius (CEO and President)

We often can originate some very large leases. A large number of cars, same customer, same car type, same commodity. While we're excited to grow our on-balance sheet lease fleet, it is still a relatively modest, and I'm probably being generous, size. Therefore, any of those orders could really skew our concentrations in any number of those areas. We will continue to work with our syndication partners so that we can diversify and keep that disciplined approach to how we're growing our on-balance sheet portfolio. Sometimes our syndication partners are not as keen on our fiscal year quarter ends or year ends as others might be. We're going to take those opportunities when they arise, and we're going to close those transactions as appropriate for the business.

That will continue to cause some lumpiness from quarter to quarter. But you can understand that the basis is we've got strong commercial lease origination capabilities, and we're keeping an eye on having a very disciplined approach to how we're growing the fleet on the balance sheet.

Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

I'm going to throw at you for my follow-up, a quick numbers question, so I'll follow up with a kind of follow-on question. The backlog new orders came in at about $123 revenue per car, down from your printed $141,000 in the third quarter. Is there anything more to that than mix? That just seems like an extraordinary shift. Then, I guess, to wrap up, you said you weren't surprised by anything in the quarter, yet you raised your outlook. I just want to understand what changed. Was there something in there that did change, that led you to raise the outlook?

Justin Roberts (VP and Treasurer)

Ken, on the ASP question, our ASP on the June order activity is more in line with our Q1 and Q2 activity, and it really is just mix primarily from that perspective versus the Q3. I think on the outlook question, obviously, Lori can correct and chime in as needed. Bear in mind that as we have been working through and navigating some of the supply chain issues, the first six months of the year were challenging, and we wanted to make sure that we were able to perform as we expected and deliver cars on time to our customers. We had some bumpiness in the first part of the year.

Now as that seems to have sunset, and we are getting our operating momentum and getting our legs under us, we are feeling more confident.

Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Wonderful. Thanks for the time, guys. Appreciate it.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo Securities. You may now go ahead.

Ryan Deveikis (Equity Research Associate)

Good morning. This is Ryan Deveikis on for Allison. Congrats on the quarter. Most of my questions were taken, but I kind of want to just pick a little bit, just kind of the smaller market here. Brazil, you know, came in 200 in the quarter. You didn't really raise your delivery there. That implies, you know, by my calc, around 100. Is that market kind of just softening or, you know, is it just a near-term, you know, headwind that it's like winter?

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

This is Brian. I can jump in, Lorie, on that question. Right now in Brazil, you're in a little bit of a-- and I say a little bit, probably over the next six months, they're in a bit of a softer period, only due to capital restraints of some of the concessionaires. In 2024, it looks like things begin to rightsize, as well as a lot of the expansion in Brazil continues to build momentum. There is quite a bit of infrastructure in central Brazil and other areas that are being completed. We anticipate long term, that Brazil is going to continue to grow. Right now, they're more in a level state of play.

Ryan Deveikis (Equity Research Associate)

Okay. Yeah, thank you. I guess one more on the refurbishment side. That backlog has been kind of declining. Are we reaching closer to, like, an end of, like, market cycle here, where there's not as much activity on that side of the conversions or whatever it's called? Just any color there would be great.

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

This is Brian. I can dive in again. The conversion side is always lumpy, and it kind of moves up and down. There are a number of cars that have been programmed already, and there is kind of a finite shelf life to the conversions. I still think there seems to be at least several years of opportunity on that side. Then kind of behind the conversions, you've got these requalifications of tank cars that are ramping up. I think what you'll see is just a shift from some of the large conversions to some of the large tank car requalification programs.

Ryan Deveikis (Equity Research Associate)

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. You may now go ahead.

Jacob Moore (Analyst)

Hi, good morning. This is Jacob Moore in for Steve Barger. Thank you for taking the questions. For my first one, just going back to the cost savings initiatives that you laid out at the Investor Day, could you talk specifically about the actions that you've already got complete and maybe quantify how much of that $50 million-$55 million you've, you think you've already achieved? Also, maybe just a quick clarification, or on the $15 million-$20 million in savings from Gunderson exit, is that now fully out of the system moving forward?

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

Hey, Jacob, this is Brian. It seems we've lost Lake Oswego. I think they're having some communication problems. I can address the first part of that question for you, which is on the $50 million-$55 million of cost savings. We're still in the infancy of implementing that plan. It is ahead of schedule, as you see from the, as you can see from the, or, you know, from this quarter's earnings. We anticipate that that will continue to develop really throughout the next fiscal year.

Jacob Moore (Analyst)

Got it. Understood. Then, maybe this one's a little bit better suited for you anyways, Brian. For my second question, just broadly, overall, rail traffic is down. You know, freight seems to be holding in there, but lackluster traffic trends are starting to compound at this point. My question is really, now that we're at the halfway point of the year, could you expand on the earlier landscape comments and maybe provide an updated outlook on rail traffic trends for the remainder of the year?

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

Yeah, there's undoubtedly, when you look at the traffic side of the equation, you know, velocity is improving a bit. There's a number of segments that are down. There's a number of segments in the rail industry that are still fairly robust. Auto, there's a tremendous amount of pent-up demand. There's a number of new facilities coming online. There's several new plastic pellet facilities that come online in late 2024, early 2025. Biodiesel continues to be fairly robust and a lot of new facilities coming online in that area as well. You still have a tremendous amount of retirements of older cars, as well as a small number of cars in storage.

While there are some headwinds, in the overall outlook, the build cycle still looks fairly level, at least we believe so, over the next, you know, 18 to 36 months, pending any, you know, major change in the economic conditions.

Jacob Moore (Analyst)

Got it. Understood.

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

And so this is-

Jacob Moore (Analyst)

Thanks. Oh, yeah, go ahead.

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

Can you hear us okay? Can you hear us okay? Can you hear us okay?

Jacob Moore (Analyst)

Yes.

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

I just want to check and make sure that we're still broadcasting here. Sorry, we've had a few technical difficulties. Thank you, Justin, for your phone. Just to touch on your other comment about Gunderson, there will probably be a little bit of. We won't have realized all of that permanent savings in our fourth quarter, but, you know, as we get into the early part of our fiscal 2024, that will be wrapped up, because we're just working with the new owners for some transition services.

Jacob Moore (Analyst)

Got it. Understood. Thank you for taking the questions.

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Again, if you have a question, please press star, then 1. Our next question will be a follow-up from Matt Elkott with TD Cowen. You may now go ahead.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

Thank you for taking my follow-ups. I think this is for Brian. Brian, the lease is coming up for renewal in 2024 that you mentioned. If you are able to get them renewed earlier, you know, the market is pretty hot right now, what kind of rate improvement do you think you can get?

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

Yeah, a lot of-

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

versus, you know, renewal. Sorry. Yep.

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

Good question, Matt. You know, a lot of the renewals that we're seeing in 2024 are related to the purchase that we did back in 2021, the fleet that we acquired. A lot of those rates were, I would say, sub-market rates at the time. We believe we're seeing, you know, quarter-over-quarter double digits, but in those cases, we should see much larger double-digit increases in the renewals in 2024. At least that's what we're predicting at this stage, Matt.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

How many cars are those?

Brian Comstock (Executive VP and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer)

That's a great question. I don't have that at my fingertips. I'm sure Justin can get back to you on that.

Justin Roberts (VP and Treasurer)

Yeah, I was gonna say it's about 2,000 cars.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

Okay. Thanks, Justin. Then just, maybe one more question for Justin or Lorie. You're pretty close to the mid-teens aggregate gross margin target for 2026 this quarter. First, you know, any updated thoughts on this target? Second, can you remind us what the target is contingent on? Do we have to be in a demand upcycle? Does it work at a, you know, at replacement level or below replacement level demand because the recurring parts of the business should grow?

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

Good question, Matt, and I would say that the targets are based on more stable demand, so not, you know, a boom market. I think while we're excited about the achievements that we've received in this third quarter, we'd like to get, you know, a quarter or two of continuous improvement under our belt before we'll consider adjusting those five-year targets.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

Okay, got it. Just one last one. I probably should know this, but, have you guys said what's going to happen to Gunderson? What, what use is it gonna be, used for?

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

If that hasn't come through. It was purchased by a local operation here, run by a couple of local Portland people, Oregon Green Manufacturing. They're gonna continue marine activities, but they're gonna expand more broadly than we were able to do. I think they're looking at some other metal building, metal bending activities or possibly some other infrastructure work.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

No rail cars are going to be manufactured there anymore?

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

Yes, sorry, I should have been clear about that. No rail cars.

Matt Elkott (Transportation OEM Analyst)

Got it. Great. Thank you very much.

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Justin Roberts for any closing remarks.

Justin Roberts (VP and Treasurer)

Thanks, Anthony. Sorry for the technical issues this morning. Appreciate your patience. I hope everyone has a great day, and if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Greenbrier, either myself, if you have my email or [email protected]. Thanks, and have a great day.

Adrian Downes (SVP and CFO)

Have a happy Independence weekend. Be safe.