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Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 revenue was $621.3M (-7.2% YoY), while Adjusted EBITDA rose 5.5% to $78.2M with margin expanding 150 bps to 12.6%; diluted EPS was $0.11, with net income of $64.3M supported by a $55.2M gain on early extinguishment of debt .
- Digital revenues reached $280.4M (+1.2% YoY; 45% mix), with digital-only subscription revenue up 17% to $49.0M and average monthly unique visitors at 200M (+7%) .
- 2025 outlook: same-store digital revenues +7–10% and digital mix ~50%; same-store total revenue down low single digits but trends expected to grow over the year; Adjusted EBITDA growth and free cash flow growth >40%; capital expenditures to increase and reduce 2025 FCF by ~$10M .
- Capital structure: cash $106.3M, total principal debt $1,111.8M, first lien net leverage 2.7x; asset sale of the Austin American-Statesman expected Q1 2025 with proceeds used to reduce debt ($50–$60M in Q1; $60–$70M in H1) .
- Near-term catalysts/risks: Google search policy changes weighed on partnership revenue; management highlighted AI-driven Dash and monetization initiatives, plus ongoing ad-tech legal actions vs Google (DOJ/Texas) that could impact the ecosystem .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Total digital revenues exceeding 45% of total revenues in the fourth quarter, and amounting to over $1.1 billion for the year” with digital revenues up >5% YoY in 2024, underpinning the transformation .
- Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow grew for the full year; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA rose 5.5% to $78.2M and margin expanded to 12.6% (+150 bps), reflecting improved trends and cost control .
- Digital-only subscription revenue +17% and digital-only ARPU +12.5% in Q4; audience scale sustained at 200M average monthly unique visitors (+7%) .
What Went Wrong
- Reported revenue declined 7.2% YoY in Q4, impacted by the sale/shutdown of non-strategic assets; same-store revenues still down 5.5% (though improving) .
- DMS faced higher churn and macro softness (home services), and Google’s fluid search policy changes negatively affected partnership revenues .
- 2025 near-term cadence: management expects Adjusted EBITDA down YoY in Q1 and FCF down YoY in Q1 before a back-half ramp and >40% full-year FCF growth; capex step-up reduces FCF by ~$10M in 2025 .
Financial Results
Summary vs prior quarters and YoY
Note: Q4 net income included a $55.2M gain on early extinguishment of debt .
Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global)
Estimates unavailable via S&P Global at time of request; unable to compare to consensus (values default to S&P Global when available).
Segment Revenue Breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “In 2024, we delivered full-year growth in both Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow… [and] total digital revenues increased to 44% of total revenue… In 2025, our expectation is that total digital revenues will make up 50% of our total revenue during the year” .
- CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA totaled $78.2 million… margin was 12.6% in Q4, a 150 basis point improvement… operating expenses decreased ~6% reflecting cost management” .
- CEO on DMS: “We expect… restore our DMS business to growth during the year… leveraging our AI-powered solution Dash to optimize campaigns” .
- CEO on partnerships: “Google’s updated and fluid search policies and algorithm changes… negatively impacted many media companies, Gannett included,” emphasizing flexibility and e-commerce potential .
- CFO on capital structure: “Cash $106.3M; net debt ~$1B… expect to pay down $50–$60M in Q1 from asset sales, and $60–$70M in H1” .
Q&A Highlights
- Digital growth composition: 2025 +7–10% same-store digital growth to be a mix of digital advertising (throughout year) and DMS (primarily back-half) .
- Asset sale proceeds: ~$50–$60M expected in Q1; $60–$70M in H1; proceeds to debt reduction .
- Capital structure roadmap: target first lien net leverage ~2x by year-end; potential refinancing into lower-cost bank markets thereafter; aim to reduce remaining converts’ dilution (likely post-2025) .
- Legal context: DOJ case timeline and Texas AG case moving forward; Gannett’s case progressing with expert work; expectation of favorable DOJ ruling noted (not yet observed) .
- Reuters bundled content: near-term revenue opportunity characterized as low- to mid-single-digit millions; potential to expand over time .
- Digital subscriber growth levers: personalization, local content focus, pricing optimization, data-driven engagement .
Estimates Context
- Consensus EPS, revenue, and EBITDA for Q4 2024 were unavailable via S&P Global at the time of this analysis due to request limits; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs Wall Street. When available, we anchor on S&P Global consensus for estimate comparisons.
- Implication: Given actuals (revenue $621.3M; diluted EPS $0.11; Adjusted EBITDA $78.2M), analysts may reassess DMS back-half ramp, digital advertising monetization effectiveness, and capex-driven FCF timing in 2025 .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Digital mix and monetization are improving: digital revenues 45% of total in Q4; digital-only subscription revenue +17%; ARPU elevated—structural tailwinds into 2025 .
- Cost discipline is driving margin gains: Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 12.6%; operating expenses down ~6%—supporting earnings resilience despite revenue headwinds .
- Capital structure de-risking continues: Austin sale plus other assets to deliver $50–$60M in Q1 and $60–$70M in H1; ongoing amortization and FCF point to >$100M debt reduction in 2025 .
- Near-term cadence matters: Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA and FCF expected down YoY; back-half ramp and >40% full-year FCF growth targeted—positioning for 2026 targets .
- DMS is a swing factor: macro recovery and AI-driven Dash/DMS Zero adoption are key to restoring DMS growth—watch churn/retention metrics and ARPU stability .
- Ecosystem risk: Google search policy changes weighed on partnership revenue; flexibility and e-commerce monetization initiatives aim to offset volatility .
- Legal proceedings: DOJ/Texas ad-tech cases progressing; while outcomes are uncertain, favorable rulings could structurally benefit publisher economics .
All figures and statements above are sourced from GCI’s Q4 2024 8-K/press release and earnings call, and prior quarter materials: .