Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered resilient execution: net sales $1.386B, GAAP diluted EPS $0.82, adjusted EPS $1.19, and adjusted EBITDA $213.9M; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~300 bps YoY to 15.4% driven by price/cost tailwinds in Sustainable Fiber Solutions and cost optimization .
Low-end FY2025 guidance raised: adjusted EBITDA to at least $725M and adjusted free cash flow to $280M; management cited better price/cost in fiber and disciplined cost structure; volume remains the key swing factor .
Strategic actions continued: permanent closure of Los Angeles paperboard mill (72k tons capacity removed), progressing sale of timberland business (Soterra) with proceeds targeted to debt reduction; run-rate cost savings reached $10M exiting the quarter .
Segment mix: Sustainable Fiber Solutions strength (price increases recognized by RISI) offset softness in Durable Metal Solutions; Customized Polymer Solutions growth aided by acquisitions and resilient end-markets (agrochemicals, food & bev, pharma, flavors & fragrances) .
Street catalyst: Guidance raise and margin expansion; additional upside if URB/containerboard pricing recognition continues and volumes recover; dividend maintained ($0.54/$0.81) supporting shareholder return .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Adjusted EBITDA up 26% YoY to $213.9M; margin expanded ~300 bps to 15.4% reflecting fiber price/cost improvements and operational discipline .
Sustainable Fiber Solutions: adjusted EBITDA $79.5M vs $49.5M YoY; RISI recognized $40/ton containerboard and $30/ton URB increases; management targeting normalized ~20% fiber margins longer term .
Cost optimization momentum: $10M run-rate savings achieved; management reiterated $15–$25M run-rate by FY25 exit and $100M total program, with targeted network optimization (e.g., LA mill closure) .

What Went Wrong

Durable Metal Solutions softness: net sales down $34.8M YoY on lower volumes and prices; adjusted EBITDA down slightly to $63.7M; volumes weak in North American industrial (chemicals/lubricants) .
SG&A elevated: driven by incentives, acquisitions (Ipackchem), and FX; target is <10% of sales over time via cost-out and scale recovery .
Volume backdrop: management raised guidance but embedded bearish volume assumptions; fiber volumes down early in Q2, improved through quarter; volume remains the main variable to upside/downside .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance – Trajectory

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Net Sales ($USD Millions)	$1,417.1	$1,265.8	$1,385.7
GAAP Diluted EPS (Class A) ($)	$1.08	$0.15	$0.82
Adjusted EPS (Class A) ($)	$0.85	$0.39	$1.19
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$197.6	$145.1	$213.9
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$144.7	$(61.9)	$109.6
Net Debt ($USD Millions)	$2,542.9	$2,639.1	$2,522.5
Leverage Ratio (Credit Agreement) (x)	3.53x	3.63x	3.3x
GAAP Tax Rate (%)	21.8%	35.8%	35.5%
Tax Rate ex. Adjustments (%)	39.6%	30.3%	32.8%

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 2025 was 15.4% (+300 bps YoY) .

Segment Net Sales

Segment Net Sales ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Customized Polymer Solutions	$285.6	$329.3
Durable Metal Solutions	$413.7	$378.9
Sustainable Fiber Solutions	$580.1	$599.1
Integrated Solutions	$91.6	$78.4
Total	$1,371.0	$1,385.7

Segment Adjusted EBITDA

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Customized Polymer Solutions	$34.9	$53.4
Durable Metal Solutions	$64.5	$63.7
Sustainable Fiber Solutions	$49.5	$79.5
Integrated Solutions	$20.8	$17.3
Total	$169.7	$213.9

Net Sales Impact Drivers (Q2 2025 YoY)

Impact (%)	CPS	DMS	SFS	IS
Currency Translation	(0.2)%	(1.0)%	(0.1)%	(0.8)%
Volume	1.5%	(4.5)%	(1.6)%	7.3%
Selling Prices & Mix	0.6%	(3.0)%	5.0%	(4.1)%
Total Impact	1.9%	(8.5)%	3.3%	2.4%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$710	$725	Raised
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$245	$280	Raised
Tax Rate (GAAP)	FY 2025	27–32%	27–32%	Maintained
Dividend (Class A / Class B)	Q2 Declared	$0.54 / $0.81 (paid Apr 1 for Q1)	$0.54 / $0.81 (payable Jul 1)	Maintained

Management notes FY2025 net income guidance not provided due to variability in non-GAAP adjustments; free cash flow reconciliation provided .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Cost Optimization	Announced $100M structural cost program; new segment model	$13M annual run-rate savings achieved	$10M run-rate achieved; 70+ workstreams; targeting $15–$25M exit FY25	Accelerating execution
Fiber Pricing & Margins	Paper Packaging pricing mix; margin pressure	Price increases contributing; margins constrained	RISI +$40/ton containerboard, +$30/ton URB recognized; aiming ~20% normalized fiber margins	Improving price/cost
Tariffs / Macro	Industrial contraction persists	Macro softness; no demand inflection	Max direct cost exposure <$10M; local sourcing mitigates; could be tailwind via steel pass-through	Managed risk; potential tailwind
SG&A Discipline	Higher SG&A due to acquisitions	Elevated SG&A; optimization planned	SG&A elevated (incentives, Ipackchem, FX); long-term target <10% of sales	Targeted reduction
Portfolio Actions	Segment transformation to four new segments	Announced timberland (Soterra) divestiture intent	LA mill closure (72k tons) for network optimization; timberland sale progressing	Ongoing optimization
Polymer Strategy & End-Markets	Industrial packaging expansion	CPS growth via acquisitions	Growth in agrochemicals, food & bev, pharma, F&F; overall polymer +1.5% YoY despite large drum softness	Resilient targeted growth

Management Commentary

“Greif delivered another strong quarter… We accelerated structural cost reductions and are on track to meet our 2025 targets.” – Ole Rosgaard, CEO .
“Adjusted EBITDA increased $44M YoY to $214M… margin up 300 bps to 15.4%… We’re raising guidance because our actions are driving results.” – Larry Hilsheimer, CFO .
“We reaffirm that our maximum direct cost exposure [from tariffs] is less than $10 million annually… We buy, produce and sell locally.” – Ole Rosgaard, CEO .
“A $10/ton change in URB pricing is about $530,000 per month for us.” – Larry Hilsheimer, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

SG&A path: Elevated due to incentives, Ipackchem, FX; long-term goal is <10% of sales driven by cost optimization and revenue scale .
URB pricing sensitivity: Each $10/ton ≈ $0.53M/month EBITDA; continued effort to secure full $50–$70/ton announced increases where not index-linked .
Guidance walk: Raise from $710M to $725M driven by ~$53M price/cost (Metals +$17M, Polymer +$17M, Fiber +$26M, Integrated −$8M from OCC); embedded bearish volumes (Metals −$5M, Polymer −$5M, Fiber −$30M) .
Tariffs and steel: Direct impact immaterial; pass-through pricing in metals against lower-cost inventory could be a temporary margin tailwind .
Network optimization: Closures (Fitchburg, Austell, LA) expected to add ~$10M annual EBITDA after transition; focus on highest ROIC facilities .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q2 2025 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA was unavailable at time of analysis; therefore, we cannot determine a beat/miss versus Street for this quarter. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Where estimates are absent, management’s raised low-end guidance and margin commentary suggest positive estimate revisions concentrated in Sustainable Fiber Solutions; volume recovery remains the main uncertainty .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Guidance raise and margin expansion are the near-term positives; continued fiber price recognition and disciplined cost actions underpin FY25 resilience .
Segment mix matters: Overweight to fibers and targeted polymers offsets metals weakness tied to industrial end-markets; watch chemicals/lubricants demand in North America .
Upside drivers: Further URB/containerboard price realization (each $10/ton ≈ $0.53M/month EBITDA), backlog strength (highest in ~2 years), and any volume inflection .
Balance sheet improving: Net debt down to $2.523B and leverage to 3.3x; timberland sale proceeds earmarked for debt reduction .
Execution focus: SG&A trajectory targeted <10%; 70+ optimization workstreams and selective network closures aim to lift ROIC and margins .
Dividend maintained ($0.54 / $0.81) supports yield while company invests in optimization; watch capital allocation post-asset sales .
Trading lens: Stock likely reacts to ongoing fiber price/cost progress and any signals of volume recovery; cautious on metals until industrial demand rebounds; monitor additional guidance updates and URB pricing realization .

Appendix – Additional Context

Dividend declared June 3, 2025 (payable July 1) .
Los Angeles mill closure announced May 1, 2025 (removes 72k tons capacity) .
Q1 2025 snapshot: Adjusted EBITDA $145.1M; adjusted EPS $0.39; low-end FY25 guide then $710M EBITDA, $245M FCF .
Q4 2024 snapshot: Adjusted EBITDA $197.6M; adjusted EPS $0.85; initial FY25 low-end guide $675M EBITDA, $225M FCF .

GREIF, INC (GEF)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary