General Mills - Earnings Call - Q2 2025 (Q&A)

Executive Summary

• Q2 FY25 delivered modest top-line growth but strong margin expansion: net sales $5.24B (+2% YoY), gross margin 36.9% (+250 bps YoY), GAAP EPS $1.42 (+39% YoY) and adjusted EPS $1.40 (+12% cc), aided by ~1.5 pts net sales and ~6 pts operating profit timing benefits that will reverse in 2H.
• Management lowered FY25 guidance to fund stepped-up consumer value and brand support: adjusted operating profit now down 4% to 2% (prior down 2% to flat) and adjusted EPS down 3% to 1% (prior down 1% to up 1%); organic sales still flat to +1% but targeting the low end.
• Portfolio shaping continues: completed acquisition of Whitebridge Pet Brands (Tiki Pets, Cloud Star) for $1.45B with ~$325M trailing retail sales; North American yogurt divestitures progressing (Canada closed in Q3).
• Near-term stock reaction catalysts: 3Q reversal of Q2 timing tailwinds and higher 2H investment weigh on EPS trajectory; watch Pet momentum, U.S. cereal execution, and category elasticity amid consumer value-seeking behavior.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Margin and EPS strength: gross margin expanded 250 bps to 36.9%; GAAP EPS $1.42 and adjusted EPS $1.40, both ahead of internal run-rate, aided by HMM savings and mark-to-market tailwinds.
  • Pet recovery: North America Pet net sales +5% to $596M and op profit +36% to $139M; management cited grain-inclusive messaging and targeted pricing in wet/treats driving pound volume back; “we’re really pleased with the progress we’re making on Pet” (Jon Nudi).
  • U.S. cereal execution: pound share growth supported by Kelce brothers activation and Chex seasonal programs; “when we get on our front foot…we see growth” (Dana McNabb).

• What Went Wrong

  • Guidance cut: FY25 adjusted OP and EPS lowered to reflect incremental promotional/media spend and incentive comp reset; management targets low end of organic sales range.
  • International softness: segment op profit fell to $24M (vs $35M), with organic sales down 3% (China/Brazil weak).
  • Underlying value-seeking consumer: more prolonged than anticipated, requiring broader value actions and targeted price investments in areas like refrigerated dough, Totino’s, and fruit snacks (pressuring price/mix).

Transcript

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Siemon, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Jeff Siemon (VP of Investor Relations)

Hi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Julianne. We appreciate you all joining us today for our Q&A session on our second quarter fiscal 2025 results. I hope you all had time to review our press release, listen to the prepared remarks, and view our presentation materials, which we made available this morning on our Investor Relations website. It's important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions, and so please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which we may discuss on today's call. I'm joined this morning by Jeff Harmening, our Chairman and CEO, Kofi Bruce, our CFO, Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail, and Jon Nudi, Group President of our North America Pet, Food Service, and our International segments.

Before we open for questions, I'm going to hand it over to Jeff Harmening for a few opening remarks.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

All right. Thanks, Jeff. And as he said, before we get into Q&A and a more detailed business discussion, let me lay out kind of an overarching perspective. And if I go back to June, we laid out our plans for fiscal 2025. And then we said our top priority for this year is to accelerate our organic sales growth and specifically our volume growth. And we do that by leveraging a Remarkable Experience Framework to improve our market share. And through the first half of the year, we've executed that plan, and we're seeing good results with broad-based improvements in our volume and our share trends. And we've done that by stepping up our investment in the business above our original plans in response to a more prolonged and, I would say, significant value-seeking behaviors on the part of consumers.

We're bringing more value to consumers across all aspects of our total product offering, including increased product renovation news, increased brand building, and promotional support. As I said, these investments are working. Leaning into our grain-free and superiority messaging, for example, on Blue Buffalo pet food business has led us back to growth. Strong brand campaigns and innovation have helped return our U.S. cereal business to pound share growth. We drove accelerated retail sales performance in some other really important U.S. categories, including fruit snacks and Mexican food, soups, snack bars, as well as food service channels in many of our international markets. We do have other work to do in other places, like on U.S. refrigerated dough. We're adjusting our plans there and already have adjusted our plans there to ensure that Pillsbury brings more value to consumers across a broader portion of our portfolio.

And so stepping back, we are confident in our strategy and the investments we're making to further improve our momentum in the back half of the year. And while stepping up our investment is impacting our profit outlook for the back half of the year, I am very confident that it's the right choice to position us for stronger growth in Fiscal 2026 and beyond. And so with that, Jeff, I'll turn it back to you, and let's get started on the Q&A.

Jeff Siemon (VP of Investor Relations)

Okay. That sounds good. Julianne, I think we can go ahead and get started with the first question, please.

Operator (participant)

Certainly. Just as a reminder to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question today will come from Andrew Lazar from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)

Thanks so much. Good morning and happy holidays, everybody.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Morning. Morning, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)

Jeff. As you mentioned, this fiscal year was always meant to be about sort of improving in-market competitiveness across the portfolio. And I guess now that we're halfway through, I'd still love to get a better sense on sort of what learnings you've taken away from maybe the initial efforts and how those learnings are kind of informing your back half expectations, particularly in light of sort of the planned incremental spend. Is it that you now see the consumer as just more ready to engage than before and maybe better adjusting their reference price points or simply just realizing that it requires more spend than it originally anticipated to drive sort of the requisite volume, even outside of refrigerated dough?

So I guess I'm just trying to get a better sense on sort of where the consumer is at this point and maybe how much of the incremental investment is specific to dough versus some of the other brands in the portfolio.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Andrew. I think we've learned a couple of things. And so we'll start with the consumer, as you said. I mean, it's clear that from the beginning of the year to now, the consumer. We've seen more prolonged value-seeking behavior than we anticipated back in June. And that manifests itself in a couple of ways. I mean, one is that consumers are eating more at home, which is good. So you see our categories are growing. And you see at-home consumption being about 87% of total consumption, which is quite high. And that's because eating away from home is about four times more expensive than eating at home. So we've seen this increased value behavior. And so in a sense, it benefits the growth of our categories. And you see our categories growing.

But what it also does is it means within our categories, consumers are value-seeking behavior. And that takes a lot of different forms. And certainly, price is one of those things. And so what we have seen this year in our businesses is as we have increased our investments, broadly speaking, whether that's in innovation or whether it's in advertising, whether that's in promotional activity, the things that we're doing are working. And so we feel good about that. It's just going to take a little, honestly. It's just going to take a little bit more than we had anticipated. And I think what I would say, Andrew, you ask about how we see it on dough versus other things. What I would say is that as we look across the different categories, we've made investments across a wide variety of categories, including in value.

But within those categories, we've done it in some pretty specific and targeted ways. And I think maybe it might be good at this point just to have maybe Jon and then Dana share a little bit on pet and then North America retail in a couple of categories to get a flavor of what those kind of targeted investments look like. So Jon, why don't we start with you and then pass it over to Dana?

Jon Nudi (Group President)

Absolutely. Hi, Andrew. So we're really pleased with the progress we're making on pet. And if you think about our biggest businesses, it's Life Protection Formula as well as Wilderness. And really, it's not price investment. It's advertising investment that's driving our business. LPF is growing, high single digits. We love what we're seeing as we've gotten back to ingredient superiority advertising. It really works for us. And on Wilderness, we're not all the way home. But at this time last year in Q2, we were down 18%. This year, we're down mid-single digits. And every single week, we make progress. And we really believe that we're going to bend the trend and get back to growth in the back half of the year. And that's really about approaching messaging. It's about bringing back grain-free SKUs and really making sure that we have sizes that are really fit for consumers.

If anything, from a price standpoint in pet, it's really been in dog wet as well as dog treats where we've got adjusted a few price points. And we're actually seeing that really pay off for us in terms of pound volume coming back and at the same time making progress from a dollar standpoint. So for us in Blue, really proud of the team, really proud of the progress. And it's probably more about advertising than it is about price investment at this point.

Dana McNabb (Group President)

From a North America retail perspective, morning, Andrew. What I would say is similar to what Jon said. We look at investment as broader than just price value. We use a framework called the Remarkable Experience Framework to try to assess where we are at relative to the competition across our total product offering, whether that's product, packaging, communications, price. From a price standpoint, we have had to make a few targeted investments, but it's not everywhere. It's on the refrigerated baked goods business, as we've talked about, a little bit fruit snacks, a little bit on our Totino's business. But I want to reiterate that this is, again, more than just investment in price. If we look at other areas in refrigerated baked goods where we're investing, we're really seeing them work. Look at our cookie line. That's about a third of our business.

It's up high single digits behind new capacity that we've added. Our campaign where we brought back the Doughboy really resonating with consumers. Our new products are up 10%. We're seeing our cereal campaigns work really well. So yes, we're having to invest in price and targeted areas, but we're also leaning in on areas that are really resonating with the consumer. And we believe this investment will return for us in the back half of the year.

Andrew Lazar (Managing Director)

Thanks so much. Have a great holiday, everybody.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Andrew. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)

Hey, guys. Good morning. Happy holidays. Thanks for the question. Dana, maybe just to pick up on the back of Andrew's question there, I think I heard you say that the incremental investment in the back half is targeted. I do think there's some concern this morning just that it's more broad-based. So just wanted to clarify on that. And just the part B of that question is really, how do you think about, is this enough? Obviously, you came into the year. You had certain plans. You're now accelerating that. How do you get confidence around the fact that the investments you're making now are going to be enough such that in three, six, nine months, we're not necessarily revisiting this again? Thanks very much.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. So you asked for Dana's stuff. Let me kind of provide a little context and then have Dana maybe provide some specifics. So there's this question about, is it broad-based or is it targeted? What I would say is that we're investing in value across different categories. So in that sense, it's broad. But then within particular categories, it's not as if we're increasing value on every single thing that we do. It's really targeted within categories and increasing investments in the place they matter most. So I know there's this question about targeted versus broad. I would say there's across a few different categories, we're making investments. But within those categories, they're very targeted. I think Dana started already with Pillsbury, which was a good example on cookies where it's really advertising and capacity, but in some other places, it's more price.

So Dana, you might want to give a couple of examples of investments.

Dana McNabb (Group President)

Yeah. Good morning, Pete. I mean, my answer is similar to what we just talked about with Andrew in the sense that the price investments are targeted. They're in areas like we talked about with refrigerated baked goods, a little bit Totino’s, a little bit fruit snacks, but again, not everywhere. And in terms of is it enough, I do believe that we put investment into the areas that our analytics show will provide the best return. And we'll watch the response, and then we'll pivot as we learn more.

Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)

Okay. No, that's helpful. Thank you. And maybe just a follow-up on pet as well. I think if you kind of remove the retailer lap from last year, you probably still would have been up on an organic basis in pet sales, which is encouraging. And just curious kind of how you think about the context of that underlying momentum into the back half? Thanks again.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Jon, why don't you take that one?

Jon Nudi (Group President)

Yeah. Absolutely. So Pete, you're exactly right. So we did see sales exceed movement by about four points in the quarter. And you're right about fiscal 2024 Q2 and really fiscal 2023 Q2 as well, we saw the opposite. So we're really just getting back to average inventory levels. And importantly, as we really look at our key customers' inventory levels, they're right where we'd expect them to be. So again, we don't expect any inventory issues as we head to the back half of the year. And overall, we really like the trends that we're seeing on the business. The first quarter that we've been able to hold dollar share in 11 quarters. We're back to pound share growth for the year. Our biggest businesses are performing well, like I said.

And I feel like we've got really strong plans to get treats performing better in the back half of the year. That's probably the last business we want to see an inflection on as we move. So we feel really good about where we're trending and don't anticipate any big inventory issues as we head to the back half of the year as well.

Peter Galbo (Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research)

Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ken Goldman (Co-Head of Americas Equity Research)

Hi. Thanks very much. I wanted to ask a little bit just in light of Kofi, your comments about, I think, most of the benefits, the one-time benefits in terms of trade inventory and the timing of spend in 2Q, that flipping into a reversal in 3Q. Is there any more color you can provide us on kind of how you want us to think about the shape of the third quarter, either relative to last year or relative to 2Q? Obviously, we can do some of the math, but just want to get a better sense for how that all flows into the bottom line.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Sure. And I will answer probably mostly through the lens of the second half and give you a little bit of shading and perspective on how that weighs in Q3. So as I mentioned in my remarks, there's probably about an op profit, about a six-point benefit in the quarter for a variety of timing items. Thanksgiving, holiday sitting in Q3 this year versus in the last week of Q2 last year, additional pipeline build outside of Thanksgiving and seasonal businesses in NAR. And then phasing on trade in that fell into the quarter and benefited and provided tailwind in Q2. So the combination of those things are about six points benefit. And as you move into the back half, right, and if you take our guidance, implied guidance midpoint, we'll give you about an eight-point decline in operating profit in the back half.

About three points of that comes from the reversal of those timing benefits, most of which is going to hit in Q3, and then we've got about two points from the incentive reset, which we expected and flagged at the beginning of the year, and then there's about three points from additional investment as we layer in spending in the back half to shore up competitiveness, as we've mentioned earlier, so that gives you roughly the structure. Hopefully, that answers your question, Ken.

Ken Goldman (Co-Head of Americas Equity Research)

Okay. Thank you for that. And then a little more of a random question, but just seeing double-digit declines in your Häagen-Dazs business in China in stores. I appreciate that you're looking to sort of diversify the channels that you work with there. But how sustainable do you see that double-digit decline? What is your outlook there? And is there any chance, I guess I'm getting at, that you'll consider kind of the broader footprint of that retail store business that you have there?

Jon Nudi (Group President)

Yeah, Ken, this is Jon. I want to take that. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely, Jeff. So we're absolutely looking at our footprint of stores. And Jon, I talked about the last couple of years. We've actually closed quite a few underperforming stores. And clearly, our focus is really on Retail as well as Food Service, where we see better margins and really the better opportunity for growth moving forward. The macroeconomic backdrop is tough right now. Again, traffic is down, which is a challenge. But at the same time, we're actually growing our Retail business in China. We'll continue to want to make that switch, really focus on really our most profitable stores moving forward. And that's something that we've been working on for a period of time here. From a profit standpoint, you'll note that International is down quite a bit this quarter.

That was really off of, first of all, a small number, and then second, we were lapping an insurance recovery on Häagen-Dazs last year, so while the top line is down a bit, I would say that profit isn't as bad as what we're printing at this point, and we're very clearly focused on improving our trends coming out of China as well.

Ken Goldman (Co-Head of Americas Equity Research)

Great. Thank you so much.

Jon Nudi (Group President)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Leah Jordan from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Leah Jordan (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. It looks like you've raised your input cost inflation for the year to 4% from 3%-4% last quarter. Just seeing if you could provide more color on the drivers behind that. Where are you seeing the most pressure across your portfolio? And how do you think about your ability to mitigate some of that going forward?

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks for the question, Leah. So that is absolutely a fair assessment of how we read the year. A couple of things that I'd give you just as framing. As we think about input costs, in particular, our ingredient costs and some of our toll manufacturing, there's a high conversion cost linked to labor that is passed through. And that actually still remains sticky and a little bit more inflationary than we'd expect. In addition, we're lapping several large contracts, packaging, dairy in our EU, AU business, sugar, where we had advantage prices that were kind of locked in right before the inflationary period. And so as we step off those, we're seeing some pressure points there. So those are kind of the big ones.

And then in addition to that, we do have a smaller exposure to items which have been much in the news, in particular, cocoa and fats and oils that remain pressure points. And then as you think about the second part of your question, how do we feel? Look, I think we're driving 5% this year. And we continue to have confidence in our ability to drive at least the 4% historical run rate we've been driving. We're getting benefits from digitization in our supply chain that's providing benefits in manufacturing and logistics, reducing waste, and providing better service. So I think we feel pretty good about our prospects of addressing inflation in roughly this range.

Leah Jordan (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. And just to separate the quarter for a minute and just talk about the regulatory environment. We have a combination of page here, but the HHS just to discuss what you're thinking about any potential attacks to your business. And I've seen this come up today. If you'd like to go back, make sure there's been any dialogue yet.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Okay. Sorry, there was a bit of a bad connection there. I think what I heard was a question on a regulatory environment and any potential impact you see to the business. We'll go with that. Hopefully, I got that question. We get about one every two words. So if I don't answer the question, just know I was not trying to get around it. Just didn't hear all of it clearly. But look, I do appreciate the question. First, it's pretty early to talk about broadly what's going to happen in the regulatory environment. What I can tell you is that we have, and we always will, follow whatever regulations are in place, whether they're state regulations or whether they're federal regulations. The other thing I can tell you is that we've got a great R&D team and very agile.

We've been navigating regulatory environments for nearly 160 years and doing so really effectively. Let me give you a couple of examples that I think might be helpful. As you think about our food service business, which you saw this quarter and for the last many quarters has been doing really well, a lot of that business is through K-through-12 schools. The USDA has nationwide nutrition standards, which they change every 5-10 years or so. Coincidentally, they're going to change in the next school year in 2025 or 2026. In that environment, when those have changed, General Mills has grown and grown share. It's not an accident.

And it's because we're able to reformulate our products, frankly, better and more effectively than our competitors and provide nutritional value as well as great taste and values and brands that the kids love and that the school operators like. And so as a result, for example, our cereal share in schools is more than twice what it is in retail. And so as we think about the regulatory environment and our ability to navigate it, just know that we have been navigating regulatory environments. And even though it's tough to predict what's going to come, I'm confident in our ability to navigate through these things. The last thing I think might be helpful as we think about what might come to pass is kind of what already is.

And that is what's happening in California, where there's legislation that's been passed about certified colors in food that goes into effect in 2027. And with that, about 85% of our cereal portfolio is already compliant. And the rest of it will be compliant by 2027. So as we think about the regulatory environment, I mean, obviously, we take food safety very seriously, and we're going to follow all the regulations, but know that I'm wildly confident in our ability to pivot because we have been able to do that historically.

Leah Jordan (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Max Gumport from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Max Gumport (Director in Equity Research)

Hey, thanks for the question. It's nice to see the progress in your own pet food results with the return to growth and the continued progress on market share. And I think this is suggestive of the success you're having with the action plans that you've laid out and improving your own competitiveness. But I'm curious for any updated thoughts you have on the broader pet food industry, particularly given pet population growth appears to be muted right now, maybe following some normalization post-COVID. And then more recently, there's been news in New York State regarding banning the retail sales of dogs and cats. So just curious for broader thoughts on the pet food industry beyond your own success on competitiveness. Thanks very much.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

No, I'll let you take that one. And the comment on about New York State, that's a stumper. But I'll let you answer the rest of it.

Jon Nudi (Group President)

Yeah, you got it. So I think what we're seeing in the categories that really turned to more pre-pandemic type of trends, and you're seeing dollars come back to the category. You're seeing segments like treats that have been a bit more challenged to get a bit better over time as well, so I think we're getting back to more normal levels of growth in the category. Will we see a surge in adoption like we did at COVID? Likely not, but again, I don't think we need to see a lot of pet population growth over time. I think getting back to where we were pre-pandemic led to a healthy category and healthy dynamics. Encouragingly for us, we're actually seeing premium bounce back a bit as well more recently.

So it does feel like we're getting back to some of the trends that we saw pre-pandemic with humanization and premiumization really leading the way. And we like where we sit. The Blue Buffalo brand is incredibly strong. I think you're aware. We announced the acquisition of Whitebridge Pet Brands. We're excited about getting bigger at Cat Wet, which is the fastest-growing segment in the category. So we like the category a lot, and we like our position as we move forward.

Max Gumport (Director in Equity Research)

Great. And then a follow-up on the U.S. cereal business. So you called it out in the prepared remarks. In the last couple of quad weeks, you've definitely seen some improvement in trends in terms of your sales growth and particularly your dollar share. It sounds like you would attribute it to consumer news, advertising, and merchandising execution. But just any more color on what you're seeing in cereal, how you'd frame the competitive environment, and what you think about your back-half expectations there. Thanks very much. I'll leave it there.

Dana McNabb (Group President)

Great. Thanks for the question. As you noted, we did see an improvement in our retail sales trends on both dollars and pounds. We grew pound share, and we've really been focused on bringing excitement back to the category and reminding people about our big brands, and two big activations that worked very well for us in Q2 were the Kelce Brothers promotion. This is where the Kelce Brothers spontaneously mentioned on their podcast their favorite cereals were Reese's Puffs, Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Lucky Charms, and so we launched a new campaign with them to bring awareness to those brands that worked really well to improve unit growth. We also launched a new Kelce Mix new product, and we got great in-store activation from both and four times the media impressions that we did this time last year, so we're really encouraged by how that worked.

And then this is the time of year where we also have our Chex Party Mix promotion, where Chex sells a lot of cereal to make Party Mix. And we focused on nostalgia. We had a Peanuts Comic Strip promotion, a free tin on the pack, big surround campaign, and that also drove share. So what we're learning is that when we get on our front foot and do what we're good at, we see growth. As we look to the back half of the year, we intend to take the same principles forward. We're the leader of the category, so we have to behave like the leader. We will bring our new game day campaign. We have Cheerios Protein launching, Cheerios heart health news. So we will keep progressing with remarkability across the mix. And I think we will continue to see progress in our market share.

Max Gumport (Director in Equity Research)

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Chris Carey (Equity Analyst)

Hi, good morning, everyone. I have kind of like an M&A quick question, then a bigger picture follow-up. I know the guidance does not include the yogurt divestiture nor White Bridge. But how do you see the two of these, or perhaps can you provide any color on how the two of these deals together may impact the dilution? Yogurt was seen, I think, low single-digit % dilutive. White Bridge, fairly de minimis. But will you be using any of the proceeds from yogurt to fund White Bridge? How do these two deals work together to inform implications for the model over the next 12-18 months? If you have any incremental color on that, I'd be curious, and have a quick follow-up.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

No, I think all very fair. I think your read of the dilution impact on both those is in roughly the right range. What I would tell you is, obviously, White Bridge just closed. So we are right on that today. I think we are still, and it's an important point, waiting closure of both legs of the yogurt divestiture. And so there aren't proceeds in hand. And my expectation, though, is that there will still be a substantial amount of proceeds going back into share repurchase activity. We are generally comfortable with the leverage range we're running in, which is in kind of a low three times net debt to EBITDA area. So I think that's going to give us flexibility to both return cash to shareholders as well as accommodate the modest amount of financing necessary for White Bridge.

We'll obviously provide you guidance once we have started closing either in both legs of the divestitures, which will have a much more material impact, obviously, on dilution expectations.

Jon Nudi (Group President)

I'll just add, Jeff, that Kofi was able to give you the first glimpse, so we did actually get news that we were closing White Bridge this morning, so you'll see a release coming out later today on that news, so that's good news for that deal.

Chris Carey (Equity Analyst)

Okay. Okay, great. A bigger picture question. If we go back over the, I don't know, many, many months at this point of sustained normalization in the broader packaged food space, Jeff has been vocal about the various things that would need to happen to drive an uptick in promotional activity if you think about, I don't know, how far that commentary goes back at this point. And anyway, and here we are with the sector trends getting better, but clearly, based on today, not getting better fast enough. And I realize there are caveats with Pillsbury and some other dynamics. But what do you think is your, I guess, bigger picture assessment of just the slow pace of recovery here?

I know GLP-1s and all these other things are mentioned, which sometimes feel less tangible, but is it simply as simple as the consumer seeking value, our private label operators becoming a lot more aggressive and going after consumers? How does this all kind of fit together to where we are today with clearly things taking longer? And if we can diagnose that, maybe there's a chance to build a bit more confidence over the next 12 months. I know it's not an overly specific question, but if that incites any thoughts, I'd be curious. Thanks so much.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, let me take a step back and answer that a little bit. As we look at over the last, I'm just going to take over the last five years or so. And what I would say is we're getting back to an environment that is more normal, that is normalizing, but not yet all the way back to normal. And you see that in the promotional environment, where the levels of promotion, whether it's frequency of discounting or depth of discounting, is about back to where it was in 2019. And I would say the same for our margin structure. So if you look at our margins, whether gross margins or operating margins, given the guidance that we just gave, they're at the same level, about maybe a little higher than they were in 2019. And there are ups and downs, as there always are.

But if you look versus five years ago, the margin structure is about the same. And our business is actually quite a bit larger. And so the question, where do we go from here? And the answer is, really, where we go from here is making sure we're responsive to consumer needs. And Dana talked a little bit about that through the Remarkable framework and driving consumer view through promotional activity, or whether it's through new products, which are up 10%, or campaigns, which you just highlighted in cereal, or Jon highlighted in pet food, is back to what consumers are looking for. And so I think the environment, we think the environment will continue to normalize. As you say, there is some inflation. Our inflation, we said 3%-4%. It's about 4%, so it's slightly higher than it was before.

And our productivity is. We said 4-5 is now 5. So our productivity is actually slightly higher than it was. And so I want you to know we feel good about our increasing level of competitiveness and what we've done in the middle of our P&L to give us the ability to maintain margins and to accelerate our growth at the same time. The tail of the tape really is about growth. At the end of the day, it's about dollar growth. Our pound growth is growing slightly faster than our market share growth at the moment. But one of the things we see is that tends to catch up over time if we're taking the right activities. And we feel great about the activities we're taking and the things we're doing to drive increased consumption. And by the way, it started in the second quarter.

It doesn't start in the back half. It actually started in the second quarter. Look at our market share gains in the second quarter, 60% volume gains and 40% on dollar, significant increase from where we were in Q1. So we don't have to wait until the back half for our competitiveness to improve, but it's already started. And that's what gives us confidence in that metric. Yes, the investments are a little bit higher, so that is acknowledged. But it is investments, which is to say it's not just spending, it's investments. And with investments, you get a return. And the return for us is our market share results, which are broad. And we're very encouraged by that, even if the investment levels are slightly higher than what we anticipated at the beginning of the year.

Chris Carey (Equity Analyst)

Thanks for entertaining that. Good luck.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)

Yes. Hey, everybody. Good morning. Two quick ones for me. The first one, just focusing on North American retail. If we look at the consumption data this quarter, the yogurt business has actually been doing well in terms of accelerating growth. I think it's contributed about 50 basis points to growth in the consumption data. I'm just curious if that's consistent with the impact on reported results, just as we think about the underlying kind of run rate of the business with that business set for divestment. That's question number one. And then question number two is actually for Kofi. You mentioned the incentive comp reset in the back half. And as you said, that was contemplated from the start. But the language changed a little bit this quarter. And I think it said something like partial reset. I'm assuming because of the guidance change today.

The incentive comp build may not be 100%. So is there any kind of quantification of that, the relative change versus prior? That'd be helpful. Thank you.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Okay. I'll let Dana start, and then I'll pick up the second part of the question.

Dana McNabb (Group President)

Right. So as you've rightly pointed out, the yogurt category is growing in Q2. It's up about 10% year to date. But it's in categories that we don't compete in. We're seeing it in the weight management line, in the Greek protein line, the premium lines. The lines that we compete in, we're actually losing share in. So when I look at what you're seeing in terms of broad-based performance for North America retail overall, there in our big businesses like cereal improving, soup improving, fruit snacks improving, chicken improving. So that's how we look at the total portfolio and consider the divestiture to come.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

And then on your second question on the impact of the incentive comp, the partial reset is exactly the right read on that, which is we would have expected going into the year that we reset this to 100%. With the guidance adjustment, we now expect that we'll pay out a little less than 100%, but above last year's rate. So that's what the two points of drag I referenced is.

Steve Powers (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thank you very much on both.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Tom Palmer from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Tom Palmer (Director)

Good morning. Thanks for the question. In past quarters, you've highlighted that your categories are growing 1%-2%, and I think share losses was really the focus that needed to be mitigated. You gave some helpful commentary on the share loss side. But I wondered what you're seeing for aggregate category growth. Is that holding in to the extent that you anticipated? Are there things you can do, especially in categories where you're a quite large share, to kind of stimulate the category as a whole?

Dana McNabb (Group President)

Yeah. From a North America Retail perspective, great question. What I would say is that the commentary we've provided is still consistent. We are seeing our categories normalize to pre-pandemic levels. They're still in that 1% growth range. And so the onus is on us to improve our competitiveness and make sure that we're bringing a total product offering that is more remarkable than the competition across our product packaging, in-store execution, and communication.

Jeff Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Jon, you want to comment on PET, maybe food service and international a little bit?

Jon Nudi (Group President)

Yeah. So on PET, as I mentioned earlier, we're seeing the category improve and start looking a lot more like it did pre-pandemic in terms of humanization and premiumization growing and the category getting back to growth overall, which is terrific. Mass, obviously, it's a huge world. We play in a pretty small part of it. And we're seeing a lot of growth, really, in non-restaurant types of outlets, things like schools, as well as away from home and airports, things like that. So that's growing nicely for us. We're growing a lot of share. And as Jeff mentioned, we've got quite a large share position in schools and like how that's trending. We also have a big frozen breads business, and we've got a couple of key retailers that are driving a lot of growth for us with double-digit growth.

So the area that we play in the food service is probably different than what most folks are seeing in terms of trends. It's quite advantaged, and we like our share positions there. And international, obviously, a big world. And we have parts of the world that we really like what we're seeing. In Europe, our team continues to deliver. The categories are starting to get back to pre-pandemic levels, similar to the U.S., and we're growing share. GEMs is our distributor markets. It's our fastest growing and most profitable part of our international business. And that team's doing a great job driving mid-single-digit top-line growth and growing share in most of our markets as well.

So again, a bit of a mixed picture around the world, but generally, we like the way we're performing against some of the headwinds that we're seeing in China from a Häagen-Dazs shop standpoint.

Tom Palmer (Director)

Thanks for all that, Kofi. Also wanted to ask on expected margin trajectory for the PET segment. I know there were some timing benefits called out in North America Retail. It sounded like the inventory benefits that you had this year were less so about this year having an unusual sales level and more prior years being maybe artificially low with inventory cuts. So I guess with that, if I look at kind of the margin base that we've seen the past couple of quarters has been more favorable year on year, is that something that can continue as we move through the back half of the year? Or are there timing or investment considerations for PET in addition in North America?

Jon Nudi (Group President)

Maybe I'll take that one as well. So I think two things are happening in PET, and both of them are really positive. And the team's doing a great job on the margin side. One, if you think about Blue Buffalo, it's only been a part of General Mills for six years. And we're starting to fully integrate all of our tools. And we're seeing outsized as a result of that. So again, the team's doing a really nice job taking our know-how and experience around and putting it to practice in Blue. And we're starting to see the full effects of that. I think that will continue as we move towards the back half. The thing that won't is that we've internalized quite a bit of volume over the last year. And we started doing that in the back half of last year. So we started lapping that.

So I do believe that we'll continue to make good margin progress over time. I don't think you should expect to see the kind of margin gains that we've made more recently. But again, we're doing all the right things to keep driving our margins as we move forward.

Tom Palmer (Director)

All right. Thank you.

Jeff Siemon (VP of Investor Relations)

Okay. Unfortunately, we're going to have to cut it off there. I know we didn't get to nearly as many people as we normally would like. I think our conversations probably went more in depth per question. So sorry for everyone still in the queue. Obviously, we'll follow up later today to make sure that we get everyone's questions answered. Thank you so much for the good engagement and for the time this morning. Happy holidays to everyone. And we'll see you again in the new year.