General Mills - Q3 2026 (Q&A)

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and welcome to General Mills's third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. To ask a question at this time, you'll need to press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Siemon, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Jeff Siemon (VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Finance)

Thank you, Julianne, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our live Q&A session on our third quarter fiscal 2026 results. I hope everyone had time to review our press release, listen to the prepared remarks, and view our presentation materials, which we made available this morning on our investor relations website. It's important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. Please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which may be discussed on today's call. I'm here with Jeff Harmening, our Chairman and CEO, Kofi Bruce, our CFO, and Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet. Before we get to Q&A, I'll turn it over to Jeff for some opening remarks.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everybody. We'll turn to Q&A here in a couple of minutes, but I thought I'd just take a minute or two to provide some context on what we've been through through the first three quarters of this year. Based on the progress we've been able to demonstrate, you know, how we're positioned to deliver a significant step-up in financial performance, which will start in our fourth quarter, which is why we reaffirmed our guidance for fiscal 2026. You know, as a reminder, as we entered this fiscal year, you know, we made a proactive and strategic decision to reinvest to improve the remarkability of our brands with full awareness that this would weigh on near-term results as we sharpened our competitiveness.

Now, three quarters into that plan, we're seeing strength and momentum on critical building blocks for sustainable growth, namely household penetration, improved baseline volume, distribution, and market shares. This progress only reinforces our conviction that this strategy is the right one for General Mills. In North America Retail, you know, our investments in remarkability are resonating with consumers. We're rebuilding household penetration and baseline growth, which are the key indicators of future growth. In Pet, we're adding households as well and fueling our fast-growing cat feeding portfolio and also taking steps to accelerate our growth through Love Made Fresh. We're continuing to be competitive in North America Foodservice and International. We know there's still more work ahead. We know that.

With most of the reinvestment phase behind us, we expect to deliver meaningful better top line and bottom line performance in Q4 and beyond. I also want to talk briefly about the other piece of news you may have seen yesterday, which was our agreement to sell our Brazil business. This builds on a strong track record we have of portfolio shaping, both in acquisitions and divestitures. Nearly a third of our portfolio, once this is complete, over the last number of years. Brazil includes our Yoki and Kitano brands. While it's not on the scale of Pet or the yogurt transactions, it's the same disciplined approach we've consistently taken to reshape our portfolio and namely, you know, our desire to prioritize our resources and investments on brands and platforms where we have the strongest opportunity to generate profitable growth.

This deal will enhance our margins and increases the international segment's focus on our key global platforms, including super premium ice cream, Mexican food, snack bars, and pet food, where we have stronger margin and excellent growth prospects. With this transaction, as I said, we've turned over nearly a third of our net sales since fiscal 2028. As we look to fiscal 2027 as well, we said in our press release, our number one goal is going to be to continue to improve our organic sales results while at the same time maintaining our industry-leading HMM as well as the transformation initiative we have to make sure we're maintaining efficiency. In 2026, we're really pleased with the pound share competitiveness we've had in NAR as well as dollar share in the other segments.

As we look at fiscal 2027, we'll aim to improve our dollar share performance in NAR, really, as we've lapped a lot of these price investments and the rest of our remarkability framework elements take hold. With that, we're confident in the strategy we have and we know that we're making progress. We'll continue to do that in Q4 and into fiscal 2027. With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Andrew Lazar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks so much for the question. Good morning, everybody.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Morning.

Andrew Lazar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Jeff. Yeah. Maybe, Jeff, by the end of this fiscal year, General Mills will have the bulk of the pricing investments behind it, along with, you know, a lot of the remarkability work. You mentioned in your prepared remarks your expectation for more stable pricing next year as you lap the pricing. I guess the key metric will be, right, can General Mills return to some level of volume growth in fiscal 2027, even in the context of category growth that remains, for now anyway, below the longer-term level? I was hoping really for whatever you can share on expectations along these lines at this point, knowing you're not obviously going to get into, like, specific 2027 guidance yet.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, Andrew, you're on the right track, you know, in terms of our thinking. What I would say is, if we look at fiscal 2027, our goal really is gonna be to increase our competitiveness in NAR in dollar terms. This year, we certainly did in pound terms as a result of all the pricing actions to be more competitive there. In 2027, you know, we'll try to maintain the pound as well as we can. At the same time, let our innovation and the renovation on our core and our improved marketing and ROIs on our marketing campaigns do the job of increasing our dollar sales results. What we feel good about is that we've got the building blocks in place.

Look, we've taken a step up on new product innovation and renovation this year from where we were before. I would look for us to take another step forward as we look at next year, both on innovation and renovation, particularly in NAR and in pet. That'll be our goal. It's a very volatile world, so what exactly that yields, we'll talk about in June. You know, we talked about at CAGNY our category is growing about 1%, but as I said, it's volatile. We'll come back with a revised view of what we think our categories will grow. I can tell you definitively that our goal will be to increase our dollar share competitiveness across NAR as we have done in the other three segments.

Andrew Lazar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Okay. Thanks for that. Price mix obviously in your categories, I think, has continued to be positive.

Despite some of your price investments. I guess, what have you seen competitively in your key categories, sort of along these lines, following, you know, your own price investments? Thanks so much.

Dana McNabb (Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet)

Good morning, Andrew. Thanks for the question. What I would say from a price mix standpoint is we have seen price mix in our categories up a little bit. That is behind some small brand innovation. But predominantly, in terms of our price mix this year, as you know, in the front half, it was about investing to get our base shelf prices right. It was not about promotion activity, adding frequency or depth. It was about getting below key cliffs and gaps with competition, getting that right, which is why our price mix is down. As we start to lap that, we lap it a little bit in the back half of this fiscal year, but really the full lapping will occur in the beginning of next fiscal year.

We're starting, and we expect to see that price gap close, starting first with our Pillsbury business, then Cereal, and then we'll start to see some of our fruit snacks come along. We do expect to get back to price mix growth in fiscal 2027.

Andrew Lazar (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Leah Jordan from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Leah Jordan (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi. Thank you. Good morning. Just kind of building on some of that, you called out the step-up in innovation this year. Just can you talk about how that's been resonating so far? How is the growth tracking for new products versus the 25% goal that you had stated previously? As we look ahead, I know you called out, you know, strong seasonal events before Q. What should we be looking for? Or any early commentary on 2027 as well. Thank you.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, overall, I would say, you know, we're really pleased with our innovation, and we're tracking at about 25%, maybe a little higher in North America Retail and between 20%-25% for the portfolio in aggregate. I'm really pleased with what we've seen out of NAR. Maybe I'll have Dana kind of give a little bit of color on kind of what's resonating.

Dana McNabb (Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet)

Yeah. From a NAR perspective, I think we'll land a little bit higher than the 25% growth from new products. We have really leaned into mainstream premium benefits such as protein and fiber, better-tasting news on some of our snacks items, and that is resonating really well. I'll use Cheerios Protein as an example. The biggest brand gaining a protein benefit, that's gonna be $100 million by the end of this year. Some of the taste renovation that we've done on our salty snacks and our fruit snacks, that is resonating incredibly well. Then, of course, big businesses like Pillsbury and Grands!, where we've been able to bring great-tasting, baked up bigger news or protein news, it's resonating really well.

We're getting really good trial and repeat on our new products this year, which of course is encouraging for next year because it means year two on those items will be helpful to us next year. I think the plans next year are even better. We're gonna see another step change in new products. Again, better for you, functional nutrition. We're bringing protein to the number one cereal, Honey Nut Cheerios. Our Ghost protein bars, which we've just started to launch, are turning very well. We're gonna scale that nationally. We make fiber taste great. We've got Annie's fruit snacks coming with fiber, Lärabar protein and fiber, :ratio granola and fiber and protein. As I look to some of the bold flavors we're launching, we are launching a new authentic Mexican brand called La Tiara.

We've got Hot Honey coming on Pillsbury biscuits. We've got Tabasco Old El Paso kits and protein shells and Chimichanga kits. You name it, we have got really good innovation coming that's starting to ship this quarter, and we will support that with double-digit media investment, seasonal events, and really good in-store and online execution. I feel confident that now that we've got the shelf prices right and we've got pounds somewhat stabilized, when we lean into the rest of the Remarkable Experience Framework, we'll be able to improve our performance next year.

Leah Jordan (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thank you. Just a follow-up on Love Made Fresh. You called out an acceleration in recent weeks after some of the changes that you planned to make that you highlighted previously at CAGNY. Just any more color on the detail of the magnitude of that acceleration, how we should think about further distribution growth from here, and then also an update on how your on-shelf availability is tracking. I know that's been an area of focus for you guys.

Dana McNabb (Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet)

Yes. Thank you for the question. I think I'll just reiterate that we are pleased with where we see the Love Made Fresh launch so far. We've made really good progress in a lot of areas. We like our execution. We're above the 5,000 mark on coolers right now. We think our marketing execution has been strong, and we are getting great product reviews from retailers and from consumers. As you pointed out, the place that we needed to focus was strengthening our turns at shelf.

The number one place was, you mentioned, our on-shelf availability. What we realized is we needed to have our store reps go to the stores every week actually, to make sure that the coolers were full. We've had that happen now for about three weeks, and we have seen a step up in turns in those stores. Again, it's only three weeks, so I wouldn't wanna lean into any specific number there, but we have seen a step up. The other two items that I think are gonna be really important to improving our turns are we didn't have a stand-up resealable pack, and that pouch format is 55% of fresh sales. That is launching now, and we have that coming into the marketplace, and that's two times the dollar ring of rolls.

That's gonna really help us from a turn standpoint. Then from a building awareness, we're really pleased with how we've built broad awareness, but we gotta come down a little bit more in the marketing funnel and reach consumers and pet parents, tell them where we can find the product and do more to convert to trials. Where we're at the next month is we are definitely going to be adding more coolers. We are gonna make sure our on-shelf availability in those coolers is better with reps visiting the store once a week, and we're confident that we will see our turns improve.

Leah Jordan (Equity Research Analyst)

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from David Palmer from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)

Thank you. I wanted to ask you about just the results you're getting from not just the remarkability framework, but just the levels of spending, the kinds of spending that you're making, and maybe juxtapose it to what you did pre-COVID. A lot of, you know, 5% of sales and innovation is the activity, the rate that you had pre-COVID, and you've kind of gotten back there. Promotion spending has been restored, and you're investing, you know, leaning in on marketing as well. I'm just wondering, you know, in that immediate pre-COVID period, you stabilized your organic sales. I'm wondering, you know, what is different today versus then. You know, just in terms of the responses you're getting from each of these sort of growth spending activities. I have a quick follow-up.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

I would say, David, you know what's been different the last three quarters is that we've been investing a lot more in our base pricing, as Dana talked about, to maintain our competitiveness or improve our competitiveness. You're right, the level of new product innovation we have is approaching pre-COVID levels, which we feel good about. Our marketing is approaching pre-COVID levels, which we feel good about. Now kind of our price gaps relative to competition will be approaching pre-COVID levels, which it hasn't been for the last couple of years. Which is why we made this change in pricing.

It's also why it gives us confidence as we look forward to Q4 and next year that our level of competitiveness in terms of dollars will improve because, as you said, we're getting back to the levels of activity, whether it's on the marketing side and innovation and media spending or whether it's our price competitiveness, that we saw before. I would actually say Dana and her team have done a great job. Our level of renovation on our core is actually probably better than it was pre-COVID. That's what gives us confidence that having gotten past the bulk of this pricing activity now on base price, that the rest of the elements of our marketing framework will work a lot harder for us.

You've kinda hit on our thinking, which is that's what we see. You know, the only other difference I would say externally is that, you know, consumers are a little bit more stressed than they were in 2019. That's why we see our level of promotion activity up a little bit higher, even if the depth isn't higher, even if the frequency isn't higher. Consumers are taking a little bit more away on promotion, which is why you see only a little bit of price mix in our categories. That's probably the one thing that hasn't bounced back all the way yet. I believe that's a structural thing. That is clearly cyclical.

As the economy improves, we would anticipate the consumers would improve with it.

David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)

No, that's very helpful. Just one quick question, maybe this one is for Kofi. Just in terms of the gross margin, this quarter was relatively low, maybe lower than what we typically see in a fiscal 3Q versus your overall fiscal year. I'm wondering where you think you know, if you can have a stable organic sales in fiscal 2027, you know, where do you think gross margins can live for this company? I'm really wondering about, you know, maybe something in the low 30s% versus the mid-30s%. You know, the street's near 34% for fiscal 2027, and I'm just wondering if you do have a stable organic sales, can you get back to mid-30s% in terms of gross margins? Thank you.

Kofi Bruce (CFO)

Yeah, David, thanks for the question. I think you're starting with kinda the right frame as we see it. We do see stable to growing volume as an enabler for returning and restoring our margins. You know, we're not ready yet to maybe go on record on where we expect them to be for 2027, but I think the path to improvement is certainly paved and aided by volume stability. What we find is when we have that, you know, leverage improves obviously across the enterprise. We get more leverage out of our HMM cost savings, which is always a significant contributor to stability and margin expansion in the middle of the P&L while supporting reinvestment in the business.

As a reminder, we are in the middle of a multi-year transformation initiative, which I would expect next year, on top of this year, will add meaningfully to productivity. As Jeff referenced, we would expect to see improvement

In price mix and be able to leverage more full suite of our SRM levers as we step into next year. I think the combination of all those things will help us start moving back, you know, in terms of where we'd like to be for 2027. I'll go on record as we get out of Q4 and into the first quarter of next year.

David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Michael Lavery (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning. Just maybe following up on that and drilling in a little bit more to the inflation piece of it. You cited some inflation pressure this quarter already. Maybe for looking ahead, can you give a sense of what you see for fiscal 2027, maybe both with and without potentially elevated oil or diesel or oil derivative costs, and just an early sense of kind of how it's shaping up. I know you've got the HMM savings you've given some color on, but you know, how hard does that have to work to offset some of the inflation you might be looking at?

Kofi Bruce (CFO)

Yeah, no, appreciate the question and obviously not prepared to give you sort of the full suite of our assumptions for 2027 yet. Our best estimate right now on range of inflation is roughly in line with this year, inclusive of maybe on margin at the far end of the range, some more modest pressure from the macro basket. Labor probably still remains one of the biggest inflationary components of our cost structure, just as we think about it, either embedded cost, whether it's in logistics or manufacturing or pass-through, even in our transformed commodities. I'd share that as a reminder. I think the other critical tentpoles are we would expect another year of industry-leading HMM at least 4%.

As I referenced in my last answer, some significant contributions on top of this year's significant contributions from our transformation initiatives to help round out the picture. I think it's important before I leave this point on 2027, just to make sure that I give you maybe some of the other sides of the ledger. There will be, obviously, lapping the 53rd week, which is a tailwind this year, will turn into a headwind next year. We've got one month of U.S. yogurt results reflected in this year's results. As a reminder, that closed at the end of June. We'll expect to see that as some headwind. Incentive comp, we would expect to normalize next year.

Those are kind of three things on the other side of the ledger as we look at the next year's tentpole assumptions.

Michael Lavery (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, that's really helpful. Just as you look at finishing fiscal 2026, early in the year, you'd indicated you'd expect positive organic revenue growth in fiscal 4Q. Now the language is just improved trends. Could you maybe be specific if positive organic revenue growth is off the table, or is that still something that you think is in reach? If so, would that be total company for NAR, maybe both? Or what's the right way to think about how the rest of the year unfolds?

Kofi Bruce (CFO)

Sure, sure. If you kind of track from the midpoint of our guidance, implied in the annual guidance is probably about 75 basis points, 80 basis points at the midpoint of organic sales growth. We're not, while we're expecting continued competitiveness, pound share and NAR dollar share in the rest of our business to hold, we're not banking in this guidance on a dramatic turn in market performance in Q4. Instead, we're expecting a lot of this to come from some mechanical factors. We referenced in our remarks significant retailer inventory headwind in Q3 that we would expect to flip to a tailwind in Q4.

That's on its own probably worth about 200 basis points of benefit to organic growth in Q4. We'd expect the rest of the improvement to come from the reversal of trade expense timing, which was a headwind in Q3 and will become a pretty healthy tailwind as we lap last year's Q4.

Michael Lavery (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Kofi Bruce (CFO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Alexia Howard from AllianceBernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Alexia Howard (Senior Analyst)

Good morning, everyone. Can I ask about the food service weakness this time around? You mentioned bakery flour volumes. Is that something that's likely to persist? What does it tell us about some of those category or channel dynamics in that segment?

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I think for Alexia, for food service overall, let me take a step back and then we'll get the flour here eventually. As we think about food service, eating occasions at home are about 86%, and that's been pretty stable over the last few months or so. Commercial traffic is down about half a point, and non-commercial traffic is up about a point. As a reminder, we over-index in the non-commercial space. As we looked at the third quarter, you see our volume decline a little bit and you see the profitability decline. I would remind you on the profit side, about half the decline is the yogurt divestiture.

When you see that big number for that decline, know that about half of it is yogurt and about another 35% is flour. Those are the two biggest items. As I think about the fourth quarter, we're not thinking that our flour business will come back in the fourth quarter of this year. We'll see what happens. Because of the complex nature of distribution and food service, the movement is a little bit slower one way or the other. I am really proud of our competitiveness in K-12 schools.

The fact that we've changed to natural colors, you know, ahead of when we said we were gonna do, and, you know, we're competing quite effectively outside of flour. I'm, you know, outside of that one piece of our food service business, pretty pleased with our performance and our level of competitiveness. This forecast we have for the rest of this year wouldn't contemplate becoming more competitive on flour for the next three months.

Alexia Howard (Senior Analyst)

Got it. Can I follow up on Love Made Fresh? You obviously had the 5,000-cooler goal for the end of January, which I think you hit, and it's probably a little bit above that now. Is there another milestone a few months down the road in terms of additional distribution that you can share? At the moment is the focus on getting the turns up before you have another big move forward on the distribution side?

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, Alexia, on the distribution side, I think, you know, there are the number of coolers, and then there are kind of the distribution within those coolers. To the extent we just launched the stand-up resealable pouch, that'll add distribution, but it may not add the number of stores. It'll just add the number of SKUs we have in the stores we're currently in. We think that's gonna be the most productive. Our focus really is on enhancing the turns where we are. To the extent we get a little more distribution, that's okay too.

As Dana talked about, you know, making sure that availability is increased significantly and that our marketing is taking place at kinda the lower end of the funnel, closer to the point of purchase, that's going to be our focus. We know we have a great product, and now we have good distribution. Now the job to do is make sure we keep improving the turns where we are. As Dana said, three weeks into having more people at the shelf more often, we're seeing positive benefits of that, and we'll look to see that continue as well as redoing our marketing mix so that we have more kind of at the point of attack, if you will.

Alexia Howard (Senior Analyst)

Great. Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Robert Moskow (Research Analyst)

Hi. Thanks for the question. Dana and Jeff, I was hoping to dive into the high single-digit decline in snacks. The salty snacks segment of the market has become much more competitive with price cuts and innovation. I wanted to know if, you know, some of that's just adjacent to you, but do you think that's carving into your brands at all? You know, what gets us back to growth in that segment?

Dana McNabb (Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet)

Thanks for the question, Rob. Good morning. I think starting first with salty, we, in the categories we compete in, are not seeing the same trends as some of the other salty competitors. One of the things that we're seeing in salty actually is that this is a business where we've had three consecutive quarters of pound and dollar share growth. We're seeing consumers respond to our price investments. We've had really good price pack architecture. And then, the product renovation that we did to just improve the flavor, that's resonating really well. So our salty business has performed incredibly well, and we think that will continue into next year. The challenge that we have seen is really on our hot snack business. That is what's driven the deceleration that you're seeing in snacks.

As I've talked about before, on hot snacks, one of the main drivers of that with Totino's is that we did a price pack architecture conversion. We changed a bag to a box. In today's economic times when the consumer's in stress, they just didn't see any value in that box, and we saw sales decline significantly. We're in process of converting that back now. The retailers have been really supportive. We think we've got the price right, and we've really got to up the product quality and how we're talking about the product to consumers, which you'll see go into marketplace this year. That's our main focus for snacks going forward.

On our grain snacks and our fruit snacks, it is about making sure we taste great, and we have enough better for you innovation with protein and fiber, which we really do, and we're leaning into the Annie's business, in our snacking categories, which we also think will work incredibly well for us.

Robert Moskow (Research Analyst)

Ex-Totino's, is snacks stable or how can you tease it out for us?

Dana McNabb (Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet)

Ex Totino's, snacks overall for us would still be down slightly. That is driven by our grain business. Our Nature Valley business is performing pretty well. We've got our proteins doing really well, our wafers business doing really well. Actually, Fiber One is on the comeback with GLP-1 users, but it's still down. What we see in grain is that consumers are moving towards more performance nutrition, and that's why you've really seen us ramp up this Ghost Bar innovation that, again, is performing really well, high protein, low sugar. We're gonna scale that nationally right now. We'll continue to lean into everything that's working well on Nature Valley, and we will double down with GLP-1 users on our Fiber One and Protein One business.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, as Dana said, you know, the biggest challenge really is Totino's and a little bit in bars as well. Bars is about innovation. We think we have a good story there. Unlike what you might have heard from others on salty snacks, our salty snacks business was up double digits in the third quarter. I'm really pleased with Dana and her team, what they've done in salty snacks. I mean, really good price pack architecture. Chex Mix is flying. Our fruit retail sales are flat. As you decomp the whole thing, you know, we're really strong in salty snacks and holding our own in fruit. The job to do really is primarily on Totino's with a little bit in bars as well.

Robert Moskow (Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Scott Marks from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Scott Marks (Equity Analyst)

Hey, good morning, all. Thank you very much for taking our questions. First thing I wanted to ask about is some of the inventory, the retailer inventory adjustments that you called out. Could you just help us understand a little bit, you know, what parts of the NAR and pet business were impacted, and then how we should be thinking about the reversal in each of those segments for fiscal Q4?

Dana McNabb (Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet)

Yeah, thank you for the question. We definitely have seen some quarter-to-quarter fluctuations as it relates to retailer inventories. I would say from a NAR perspective, we typically see our net sales and our retail sales trends track relatively consistently. They were a little bit off in Q3, and we think that will revert back in Q4. It's Pet where we see the more significant gap, that's about three points. As we look to Q4, our current guidance does not really contemplate a headwind or a tailwind from Pet in Q4. Historically, it has been really hard for us to predict shipment timing and retailer inventory in Pet. We just think that the best planning assumption is to assume that it's gonna be neutral in Q4.

Scott Marks (Equity Analyst)

Understood. Thanks for that. Just wanted to ask a little bit about the guide. Obviously, holding the guide implies maybe a fairly wide range for Q4. Just wondering if you can help us understand maybe the swing factors that could push results toward one end or the other.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Sure. Certainly the guide on profit is maybe even appreciably wider than on the top line. Obviously on the top line, as I referenced earlier, we're expecting sort of the mechanical factors of the retailer inventory reset, which we expect to improve our organic growth rate about 200 basis points over Q3, so about 50 basis points in the quarter. Then our trade expense timing to kinda carry the rest on the top line. On the bottom line, you know, as Dana just referenced in her remarks, we saw some additional pressure on top of some things that we'd already anticipated going in.

Specifically, going into the quarter, in Q3, we would've expected remarkability investments, divestiture headwinds, and trade expense timing comparisons to be a drag. Those kinda accounted for two-thirds of the decline in Q3. The other remaining factor that was frankly still variable and wide as we came into CAGNY and reset guidance were around the shipment time and the weather-related factors that impacted shipment timing and supply chain disruptions for us. Those added additional pressure to the results and largely account for the width of the range on profit.

Our ability to recover fully from some of the cost overhang from the supply chain disruptions. We are making progress, but maybe at the low end of our guidance that would maybe not be able to fully recover. At the more positive end of our guidance or the more benign end of our guidance, we'd see a more full recovery in those costs. As well as obviously the factors around trade, supply chain, retailer inventory flipping to tailwinds in the quarter.

The last thing I would just leave you with is a reminder that we do expect to see obviously a significant contribution from the 53rd week in Q4, and that's baked into our guidance as well as a mechanical factor. But really the variability around supply chain and retail inventory recovery would probably account for the width of the range on profit.

Scott Marks (Equity Analyst)

Understood. Thanks very much.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Peter Galbo (Research Analyst)

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Kofi, just back to the question around inflation for next year. I know it's probably still a little too early to know fully, but a couple of your peers have called out freight as a potential headwind, and I think freight even outside of what's happened in diesel. Maybe you just comment on what you're seeing in terms of, you know, driver tightness or anything that might be a potential hiccup on that side.

Kofi Bruce (CFO)

Yeah. Well, I think broadly, I don't know that we call out different factors. We're tracking those. Obviously we're not done with our fiscal year, so we don't expect those to be material in this year given we're largely, you know, hitting at our contracted rates. You know, it is a variable that we're factoring into the range that I gave you earlier in the call on our expected inflation for next year. We'll, you know, be prepared to give you a more full picture here in, call it, 2 more months and as we close a quarter in the year.

Peter Galbo (Research Analyst)

Okay. Fair enough. Jeff, maybe just, I didn't get a lot of air time, but the decision on Brazil, I don't think it comes as a huge surprise, but maybe you can just provide a few more details into just the thinking to kinda exit the market and what drove the decision, you know, this time. Thanks.

Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. Well, you know, it stems from our strategy to really focus on our core global brands outside the U.S. You know, we have a great right to win with our core global brands. They're fast-growing and they're quite profitable. You know, as we looked at our Brazilian business, our Brazilian team's done a really nice job. The challenge for us in Brazil is that not only are we under scale, but also our portfolio there is not really our global brands. It's some good local brands. The combination of having these local brands as well as not having the scale means that our Brazilian business has not been very profitable for quite some time.

The idea to divest of our Brazilian business really is a factor of our focusing on our core global brands, which will enable us in our international segment to improve our margin profile, which, you know, we've done a really nice job of this year, but there's another step change to go. Divesting this business will help us do that and while maintaining our growth and increasing our margin profile. Doing that, what we'll be able to do is shift our resources to places we think we have a longer term right to win, it's gonna be more profitable for us.

Peter Galbo (Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks very much.

Jeff Siemon (VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Finance)

Julianne, I think that's all the time we have this morning, so I think we should wrap there. Thanks everyone for the good questions and discussion, and we look forward to speaking with you over the course of the coming quarter.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.