Globe Life - Earnings Call - Q4 2019

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good day, and welcome to the Globe Life, Inc. Fourth Quarter twenty nineteen Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. For opening remarks and introductions, would like to turn the conference over to Mike Maker Searce, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Joining the call today are Gary Coleman and Larry Hutchison, our Co Chief Executive Officers Frank Spivoda, our Chief Financial Officer and Brian Mitchell, our General Counsel. Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward looking statements that are provided for general guidance purposes only. Accordingly, please refer to our twenty eighteen ten ks and any subsequent forms 10 Q on file with the SEC.

Some of our comments may also contain non GAAP measures. Please see our earnings release and website for a discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures. I will now turn the call over to Gary Coleman.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, net income was $187,000,000 or $1.69 per share compared to $165,000,000 or $1.45 per share a year ago. Net operating income for the quarter was $188,000,000 or $1.7 per share, a per share increase of 9% from a year ago. On a GAAP reported basis, return on equity for the year was 11.6% and book value per share was $66.2 Excluding unrealized gains and losses on fixed maturities, return on equity was 14.5% and book value per share grew 9% to $48.26 In our life insurance operations, premium revenue increased 5% to $631,000,000 and life underwriting margin was $177,000,000 up 6% from a year ago. In 2020, we expect life underwriting income to grow around four to 5%.

On the health side, premium revenue grew 7% to $275,000,000 and health underwriting margin was up 5% to $61,000,000 Growth in premium exceeded underwriting margin growth, primarily due to lower margins at Liberty National. In 2020, we expect health underwriting income to grow around four to 6%. Administrative expenses were $61,000,000 for the quarter, up 7% from a year ago. As a percentage of premium, administrative expenses were 6.7%, the same as a year ago. For the full year, administrative expenses were two forty million dollars or 6.7% of premium compared to 6.5% in 2018.

In 2020, we expect administrative expenses to grow approximately 6% and to be around 6.7% of premium. I will now turn the call over to Larry for his comments on the marketing operations.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Gary. I'm going to go through the fourth quarter results at each of our distribution channels. I'll start out by saying I'm pleased with the sales growth in our agencies in 2019. I'm particularly pleased with the agent count growth and middle management increase we've seen across all of our exclusive agencies in 2019. At American Income, life premiums were up 8% to $297,000,000 and life underwriting margin was up 9% to $98,000,000 Net life sales were $59,000,000 up 9%.

The average producing count for the fourth quarter was 7,631, up 10% from the year ago quarter and up 1% from the third quarter. The producing agent count at the end of the fourth quarter was 7,551. Net life sales for the full year 2019 grew 6%. The sales increase was driven by increases in agent count. At Liberty National, life premiums were up 3% to $72,000,000 and underwriting margin was up 4% to 18,000,000 Net life sales increased 13% to $15,000,000 and net health sales were $7,000,000 up 12% from the year ago quarter.

The average producing agent count for the fourth quarter was 2,534, up 17% from the year ago quarter and up 6% from the third quarter. The producing agent count at Liberty National ended the quarter at 2,660. Net life sales for the full year 2019 grew 9%. Net health sales for the full year 2019 grew 11%. The sales increase was driven by increases in agent count.

To better describe our non agency business at Globe Life and Accident Insurance Company, we have begun replacing the term direct response with direct to consumer. In our direct to consumer division at Globe Life, life premiums are up 4% to $2.00 $9,000,000 and life underwriting margin was flat at $39,000,000 Net life sales were $30,000,000 up 2% from the year ago quarter. For the full year 2019, net life sales were flat due primarily to a decrease in juvenile mailing volume resulting from a decline in response rates from our juvenile mailing offers. At Family Heritage, health premiums increased 8% to $76,000,000 and health underwriting margin increased 7% to $19,000,000 Net health sales were up 19% to 18,000,000 due to an increase in both agent productivity and agent count. The average producing agent count for the fourth quarter was twelve twenty eight, up 9% from the year ago quarter and up 8% from the third quarter.

The producing agent count at the end of the quarter was twelve eighty six. Net health sales for the full year 2019 grew 9%. The sales increase was primarily driven by an increase in agent count. At United American General Agency, health premiums increased 11% to $108,000,000 while margins increased 12% to $15,000,000 Net health sales were $32,000,000 up 7% compared to the year ago quarter. To complete my discussion of marketing operations, I'll now provide some projections.

We expect the producing agent count for each agency at the 2020 to be in the following ranges: American Income, 5% to 7% growth Liberty National, 5% to 13% growth Family Heritage, 2% to 7% growth. Net life sales for the full year 2020 are expected to be as follows: American Income, 5% to 9% growth Liberty National, 8% to 12% growth direct to consumer, down two to up 2%. Net health sales for the full year 2020 are expected to be as follows: Liberty National 9% to 13% Family Heritage 8% to 12% United American Individual Medicare Supplement relatively flat. I'll now turn the call back to Gary.

Speaker 2

I want to spend a few minutes discussing our investment operations. First, excess investment income. Excess investment income, which we define as net investment income less required interest on net policy obligations and debt was $63,000,000 a 1% increase over the year ago quarter. On a per share basis, reflecting the impact of our share repurchase program, excess investment income increased 6%. For the year, excess investment income grew 5%, while on a per share basis, it grew 8%.

In 2020, due to the impact of lower interest rates, we expect excess investment income to decline by 2% to 3%, but on a per share basis, be flat to 1%. Now regarding the investment portfolio, invested assets are $17,300,000,000 including $16,400,000,000 of fixed maturities and amortized cost. Now the fixed maturities, 15,700,000,000.0 are investment grade with an average rating of A minus. And below investment grade bonds are $674,000,000 compared to $666,000,000 a year ago. The percentage of below investment grade bonds to fixed maturities is 4.1% compared to 4.2% a year ago.

Overall, the total portfolio is rated A minus compared to BBB plus a year ago. Bonds rated BBB are 55% of the fixed maturity portfolio, down from 58% at the end of twenty eighteen. While this ratio is in line with the overall bond market, it is high relative to our peers. However, we have less exposure than our peers to higher risk assets such as derivatives, equities, commercial mortgages and asset backed securities. We believe that the BBB securities that we acquire provide the best risk adjusted, capital adjusted returns due in large part to our unique ability to hold securities to maturity regardless of fluctuations in interest rates or equity markets.

Finally, we have net unrealized gains in the fixed maturity portfolio of $2500000000.0.97000000 dollars lower than the previous quarter. Now as to the investment yield, in the fourth quarter, we invested $449,000,000 in investment grade fixed maturities, primarily in the municipal, industrial and financial sectors. We invested at an average yield of 4.11%, an average rating of A plus and an average life of thirty one years. For the entire portfolio, the fourth quarter yield was 5.41%, down 15 basis points from the yield of fourth quarter twenty eighteen. As of December 31, the portfolio yield was approximately 5.41%.

For 2020, at the midpoint of our guidance, we assumed an average new money yield of 4.1% for the full year. While we would like to see higher interest rates going forward, Globe Life can thrive in a lower for longer interest rate environment. Extended low interest rates will not impact the GAAP or statutory balance sheets under the current accounting rules since we sell non interest sensitive protection products. While our net investment income and to a lesser extent our pension expense will be impacted in a continuing low interest rate environment, our excess investment income will still grow. It just won't grow at the same rate as the invested assets.

Fortunately, the impact of lower new money rates on our investment income is somewhat limited as we expect to have an average turnover of less than 2% per year in our investment portfolio over the next five years. Now, I will turn the call over to Frank.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Gary. First, I want to spend a few minutes discussing our share repurchases and capital position. The parent began the year with liquid assets of $41,000,000 In addition to these liquid assets, the parent generated excess cash flow in 2019 of $374,000,000 as compared to $349,000,000 in 2018. The parent company's excess cash flow as we define it results primarily from the dividends received by the parent from its subsidiaries less the interest paid on debt and the dividends paid to Globe Life shareholders. Thus, including the assets on hand at the beginning of the year, we had $415,000,000 available to the parent during the year.

As discussed on our prior calls, we accelerated the repurchase of $25,000,000 of Globe Life shares into December 2018 with commercial paper and parent cash. We utilized $20,000,000 of the 2019 excess cash flow to reduce the commercial paper for those repurchases. That left $395,000,000 available for other uses, including the $50,000,000 of liquid assets we normally retain at the parent. In the fourth quarter, we spent $93,000,000 to buy 930,000 Globe Life shares at an average price of $99.82 For the full year 2019, we spent $350,000,000 of parent company cash to acquire 3,900,000.0 shares at an average price of $89.04 So far in 2020, we have spent $33,500,000 to buy 322,000 shares at an average price of $104.2 The parent ended the year with liquid assets of approximately $45,000,000 In addition to these liquid assets, the parent will generate excess cash flow in 2020. While our 2019 statutory earnings have not yet been finalized, we expect excess cash flow in 2020 to be in the range of $375,000,000 to $395,000,000 Thus, the assets on hand at January 1, currently expect to have around $420,000,000 to $440,000,000 of cash and liquid assets available to the parent in 2020.

As noted on previous calls, we will use our cash as efficiently as possible. It should be noted that the cash received by the parent company from our insurance operations is after they have made substantial investments during the year to issue new insurance policies, expand our information technology and other operational capabilities and acquire new long duration assets to fund future cash needs. With the parent company excess cash flows, if market conditions are favorable and absent alternatives with higher value to our shareholders, we expect that share repurchases will continue to be a primary use of those funds. We believe it yields a return that is better than other available alternatives and provides a return that exceeds our cost of equity. Now regarding capital levels at our insurance subsidiaries.

Our goal is to maintain capital at levels necessary to support our current ratings. As noted on previous calls, Globe Life has targeted a consolidated company action level RBC ratio in the range of 300% to 320% for 2019. Although we have not finalized our 2019 statutory financial statements, we anticipate that our consolidated RBC ratio for 2019 will be toward the higher end of this range. For 2020, we will continue to target a consolidated company action level RBC ratio in the range of 300% to 320%. Finally, with respect to our earnings guidance, as Gary previously noted, net operating income per share for the 2019 was $1.7 In addition, net operating income per share for the full year 2019 was $6.75 This was $01 above the midpoint of our previous guidance, primarily due to greater than anticipated life underwriting income at Liberty National and higher excess investment income.

For 2020, we are projecting the net operating income per share will be in the range of $7.3 to $7.23 The $7.13 midpoint of this guidance is slightly lower than previous guidance due to higher than expected employee pension and healthcare costs in 2020. Those are my comments. I will now turn the call back to Larry.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Frank. Those are our comments. We will now open the call up for questions.

Speaker 0

Thank Our first question comes from Andrew Kligerman of Credit Suisse.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. Just sticking with that guidance, EPS guidance question. So the new midpoint of your guidance is a mere $02 lower than previous. And I think you've just cited that it's the lower discount rate. I just want to make sure, could you give us a sense of how many cents per share that impacted your outlook and if there were any other contributors to the revised guidance and how much?

Speaker 4

Sure. As I noted in the comments, really the kind of the primary reduction primary causes for the reduction in the midpoint was kind of higher employee costs in general, including our pension and health insurance costs. The combination of those is that right at that $02 per share. We also there are some offsetting items that are impacting the overall guidance. But as we look at the lower interest rates, we did have a little bit lower excess investment income expectations from what our previous guidance was.

But a lot of that was also was due to some higher than previously anticipated acquisition of municipal investments. So while that's driving down our excess investment income, we're also seeing a little lower effective tax rate because of that. Those largely offset each other. In addition, the higher share price had some impact. We're having getting less of an impact of our overall buyback program, but we're also seeing higher excess tax benefits, which impact the stock compensation expense.

And again, those are roughly offsetting each other. So kind of net net, we really look to the kind of a higher pension expense and to some degree, our higher health insurance cost for our employees as being the primary contributors.

Speaker 5

Got it. A lot of moving pieces there. Looking at the line items for both the Life and Health segments, we noticed that the non deferred commissions and amortization line and the non deferred acquisition expense line were both up materially I guess if I'd average it out for both it was like 10% in life and maybe north of maybe closer to, you yeah, know, 10 plus percent in Health as well. So the question is what's driving that number up so much that kind of dampened the EPS versus what we would have expected?

Speaker 4

Yes. We did see some higher growth in the non deferred acquisition costs during quarter over quarter. Some of that is due to some timing of certain expenses and where they kind of hit in the year. But in general, they're up we are incurring higher costs in support of our various agencies. Mean, there's higher marketing costs that we incur.

Some of our various meeting costs increased a little bit in 2019 over 2018. And then we also saw some of the branding changes. So as we're going through and as you may have noticed in some of the materials, we're in the process of converting all of our agencies from the individual agencies to divisions of Globe Life. And so there's a fair amount of expenses that we've incurred in the fourth quarter just associated with changing the overall brands of those particular agencies and helping the individual agencies make that conversion as well. So we do anticipate the benefits of that really in the future.

But then really a key driver of the higher percentage increase are really some of the IT costs we've incurred year over year. We've implemented some new CRM systems at a couple of the agencies as well as a new commission systems and just other agency support systems that we're starting to see the depreciation on those begin in 2019. And then, overall, just trying to improve their overall agent experience and their and the service levels to the agencies.

Speaker 5

I see.

Speaker 4

I was going to say in 2020, really to see it leveling out, it shouldn't it will we do not expect it to increase at the midpoint of our guidance at near that level. It will be a lot closer to the overall 6% or 7% increase.

Speaker 5

Got it. That's helpful. And then just lastly, your agent count just increased so robustly. And as I look at your sales guidance, which is very compelling across both segments, I wonder one, was it the rebranding that kind of got that growth? And two, maybe you could even exceed the guidance in sales that you just provided on the call for 2020?

Speaker 3

Just talking about the agency growth first. I think the two drivers for agency growth in 2019, recruiting activity and our middle management growth. If you look across the three agencies, American Income had an 11% increase recruiting in 2019. Liberty National had a 38% increase in recruiting. You had steady retention of both agencies.

Part the steady retention is a result of the middle management growth. American Income had 9% middle management growth in 2020. Liberty National had 17% middle management growth. I think those are the primary factors. Branding helps with the recruiting, but it was year long recruiting activity that really increased the agent count.

Family Heritage, had 2% year over year recruiting growth where we doubled our retention at Family Heritage. That was driven by a 23% increase in middle management. As you know, middle management really drives our recruiting and our training, So that also helps retention and agency growth. I think that the guidance we've given this year is good guidance. Just remember that agency growth is a stair step process and you don't expect the same percentage growth every year.

It's possible we could exceed that, but we're early in 2020. In our next call, we'll have better guidance in terms of the final agent count for each of the three exclusive agencies. Thank you so much.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Jimmy Bhullar of JPMorgan.

Speaker 6

I had a question just on recruiting. I would have thought that the strong labor market, the recruiting trends wouldn't have been as good as they've been. If you could just

Speaker 3

Jimmy, I'd make this comment

Speaker 7

that unemployment really

Speaker 3

affects retention, not recruiting. Most of our recruits are not people who are unemployed, it's people looking for greater opportunity. And so we really saw an increase in recruiting despite the record low unemployment this year. I think the growth in middle management helped us retention because most of the training comes from our middle managers. And as agents are better trained, they're more productive and they stay with the company longer.

So I think that was a real driver for the steady retention we saw at American Income and Liberty National and of course, the increase in retention we saw at Family Heritage.

Speaker 6

And any comments you have or any sort of metrics that you could share on the quality of the new recruits? And so just so we can get an idea on how sales would follow would sales track given the strong growth in the agent count recently?

Speaker 3

Jimmy, I think with new recruits, you always see a little less productivity. They're just not quite as productive in terms of the percentage of business submitted. The average premium as a more veteran agent. But the fact that we had sales growth in all three of the agencies tells me that we have a fairly high quality recruit across the three agencies.

Speaker 6

And just lastly on direct response, your sales in the last couple of quarters have been up slightly. They are down a lot from where they used to be. Do you think the channel sort of turned the corner? And what's your expectation in terms of how much growth you have in this business in the next two to three years?

Speaker 3

In the fourth quarter, the better than expected sales were due to a strong electronic sales across both adult and juvenile product lines. I looked at the guidance for 2020, I guess we're fairly early. There are four primary drivers in direct response. And if I look at 2020, those four metrics versus 2019, we think insert media will be up about 2%. We expect electronic media to be up about 5%.

Our circulation will be up about 2% and our mail volume will be stable. So I think the range of negative 2% to positive 2% in sales is really a good guidance at this point. Let's remember, our focus really isn't on increasing the sales, it's on increasing total profit dollars.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Ian Reif of Bank of America.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to ask on the health margin. So while margin the underwriting income increased nicely year over year, the margin percentage was a little down. Just wanted to know if you're seeing any changes in utilization for Medicare sup products or if there's anything you see on the horizon?

Speaker 2

Well, I think maybe one of the most bigger contributing factors is that in the MedSub business, we saw an increase in claims during the year, and that's something that was industry wide. The policy obligations percentage for the GA business, which is where we have the Medicare supplement was a little over 65%. That's high compared to the previous years. But that we will be implementing rate increases in 2020 and going forward and we'll not only slow the increase in the policy obligations, but hopefully bring it back closer to the 65%.

Speaker 7

Great. And then just to clarify on the excess investment income, think you guys said it was going to grow 2% to 3%. Just wanted to clarify on what your expectations are for excess investment income growth next year?

Speaker 2

Well, for next year, for 2020, we're thinking that in dollars, excess investment income will be down 1% to 3%. On a per share basis, it will be flat to 1%. What the issue there is the investment income will be a decline of 1% to 2%.

Speaker 7

That's just based on the roll off of higher yielding or is it just a lower new money yield that you're expecting to get?

Speaker 2

Excuse me, I said a decline of 1% to 2%. Investment income is going to grow 1% to 2%, whereas, investment assets are going to grow 4%. And the reason we're having that the lower growth investment income is because of the impact of lower rates. It's the new money rate that we this year, in 2020, we're saying 4.1%. That's down almost 50 basis points from what we did in 2019.

So that's as far as the other components of excess investment income, they're about what we expected and what we had in 2019.

Speaker 7

Okay. Only thing

Speaker 4

that I would just add to that is clearly the volume of the calls that we did have in 2019 and that we do anticipate some additional calls in the first part of twenty twenty. So as those roll off the books and get reinvested at a lower rate, that's also having a dampening effect given the low new money rate.

Speaker 2

Yes, I'm glad Frank mentioned that. I mentioned in the opening comments that going forward, we would expect that only about 2% of the portfolio coming off. That was 6% in 2019. It's going to be around 3% in 2020, and it will be 1% per year going forward for a while. And Frank mentioned in the calls, had ten years ago, we bought Build America bonds.

Those are now callable. And so we had five fifty million of calls in 2019. We're expecting another 300,000,000 of those to be called in 2020. And then after that, there'll be very little calls. So I agree with Frank, call activity in 2019 and 2020 has had a big impact on investment income growth.

Speaker 7

Great. Appreciate the details.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Alex Scott of Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 7

Hi. I just had a question around, I guess, reinsurance costs where you do have reinsurance. Lot of your peers talked about increased costs there. I think probably a little more geared towards interest sensitive blocks. I was just wondering if you've seen any of that and if there's anything we should consider around principal based reserving kind of going fully into effect at the beginning of twenty twenty?

Speaker 2

Well, first, I'll mention, I think Frank will cover the principal based reserves. As far as reinsurance costs, we do very, very little reinsurance. And so that it we really has no impact on us. Remember, the face amount of policies we sell are in the from the 20,000 to 30,000, 40,000 range. So we just don't do reinsurance.

Frank?

Speaker 4

Yes, with respect to the principal based reserves, we are pretty much implemented that for all of our companies. We've got a couple of our smaller companies that we're implementing that for the new business here in 2020. Really do not anticipate a real meaningful impact one way or the other. We're finding net net probably a slightly favorable for us versus reserving methodologies pre PBR for those lines. But PBR primarily focused on that aggressive term and a bunch of the UL policies and secondary guarantees and we just don't write those businesses, write those lines.

So it doesn't have a significant impact overall on us.

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay. And then just in terms of the $375,000,000 to $395,000,000 excess cash flow you mentioned, Can you talk about just priorities there? I know you said share buybacks would probably continue to be the primary method. I know you guys have looked at acquisitions in the past.

I mean, is that something you guys are still entertaining?

Speaker 4

Yes. Yes, absolutely. So we do take we spread that those buybacks out, intend to spread it out ratably over the course of the year. That gives us the flexibility to redirect those later in the year, throughout the year, if we find other alternatives that provide a greater return to the shareholders. One of those is clearly M and A.

We are interested in M and A. We're very focused on wanting to target an organization that would be strategically accretive to us, that is it helps us to write protection oriented products to the middle market and that have a controlled distribution. And so, we continue to look for opportunities and we'll continue to do so. And if we come across a good opportunity during the year, then clearly that would be we would clearly look at redirecting some of that free cash flow into that type of an opportunity.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 0

And at this time we have no further questions in queue.

Speaker 1

All right. Thank you for joining

Speaker 7

us this morning. Those are

Speaker 1

our comments and we'll talk

Speaker 4

to you again next quarter.