GM
General Motors Co (GM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 results: revenue $47.12B, EPS-diluted-adjusted $2.53, EBIT-adjusted $3.04B; FY25 guidance unchanged (EBIT-adjusted $10.0–$12.5B, EPS-diluted-adjusted $8.25–$10.00, adjusted auto FCF $7.5–$10.0B) .
- Results vs consensus: revenue beat by
$0.84B and EPS beat by $0.05; significant headwinds from tariffs ($1.1B net impact in Q2) and higher warranty costs (~$300M YoY) were partially offset by stable retail pricing and mix; fleet pricing moderated . - Segment: GMNA EBIT-adjusted $2.42B (6.1% margin) on strong SUVs and crossovers; China turned to positive equity income ($71M); GM Financial EBT-adjusted $704M; Cruise operations now included in GMNA .
- Capital allocation: $2B ASR completed (43M shares retired) and open market buybacks resumed in early July; quarterly dividend maintained at $0.15/share .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- China delivered second consecutive quarter of YoY sales growth and positive equity income; GM was “the only foreign OEM to gain share” in China, aided by competitive NEV launches .
- Crossover and EV momentum: Chevrolet Equinox (ICE and EV) gained nearly six points of U.S. retail share YoY; Chevrolet is now the #2 U.S. EV brand; Cadillac became #5 EV brand, with >75% conquest rates for Lyriq .
- Software and services scale: Super Cruise offered on 23 models; >$4B of deferred revenue booked for Super Cruise/OnStar; 2025 Super Cruise revenue projected >$200M, doubling in 2026 .
What Went Wrong
- Tariffs compressed profitability: net tariff impact was ~$1.1B in Q2; management expects higher net tariff costs in Q3 and gross FY impact of $4–$5B with ~30% mitigation targeted .
- Warranty pressures: ~$300M YoY increase tied to L87 engine and early EV software issues; EV inventory adjustments and fleet pricing moderation further weighed on margins and cash flow .
- GMNA margin down to 6.1% from 8.8% in Q1 and 10.9% in prior-year Q2, primarily due to tariffs and warranty costs; adjusted auto FCF fell ~47% YoY in Q2 .
Financial Results
Values retrieved from S&P Global*. GM reported beats on revenue (~$0.84B) and EPS ($0.05), despite tariff and warranty headwinds .
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Note: GM indicated FY25 guidance unchanged; Q2 call reiterated GM Financial range and stable pricing assumptions .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “EBIT adjusted was $3 billion… decline was primarily driven by a net tariff impact of approximately $1.1 billion… offset by lower fixed costs, improved mix… higher warranty-related charges” — CFO Paul Jacobson .
- “Chevrolet is now the number two EV brand… Cadillac became the number five EV brand overall” — CEO Mary Barra on EV momentum .
- “By the end of the year, our customers will have access to more than 65,000 public fast-charging bays… 100,000 by the end of 2027” — Charging buildout .
- “LMR chemistry… unique balance of energy density, charging capability, and cost efficiency… potential savings… greater than using LFP” — Battery cost roadmap .
- “We resumed open market repurchases in early July” — Capital returns and flexibility .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariff cadence and mitigation: Q3 net tariff expense likely higher than Q2; gross FY impact $4–$5B with ~30% mitigation via manufacturing adjustments, cost initiatives, and pricing .
- EV profitability path: Focus on chemistry (LMR/LFP), lighter/aero architectures, component standardization; disciplined production aligned to demand; aim for profitability across models .
- Pricing dynamics: Retail pricing stable; fleet pricing moderated amid competition; strategy continues to emphasize discipline and product strength over incentives .
- Korea operations & trade: Contribution-margin positive; decisions contingent on tariff agreements; U.S. capacity provides optionality .
- Buybacks: $4.3B authorization remaining at Q2 end; open market repurchases restarted; free cash flow seasonally higher in H2 .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $46.28B* vs actual $47.12B; EPS-diluted-adjusted $2.48* vs actual $2.53; both beats despite tariff and warranty headwinds .
- Forward consensus (context): Q3 2025 EPS $2.32*, revenue $45.33B*; Q4 2025 EPS $2.18*, revenue $45.67B*; management signals Q3 tariffs higher than Q2 and typical seasonality in NA volumes .
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q2 beat on revenue and EPS despite ~$1.1B tariff headwind; fundamentals (product strength, stable retail pricing) remain intact .
- Near-term margin pressure (tariffs, warranty) likely persists into Q3; FY guide maintained with ~30% mitigation targeted and stable pricing assumptions .
- Strategy pivot is clear: EV profitability focus via chemistry/aero/standardization; disciplined production to avoid discounting; software/services scale provides revenue visibility .
- China is a bright spot with positive equity income and share gains; GMI EBIT improving; U.S. capacity investments add tariff resilience and ICE/EV mix flexibility .
- Capital return remains active: dividend maintained; buybacks resumed; balance sheet flexibility supports execution amid policy shifts .
- Trading lens: Watch Q3 tariff expense and fleet pricing trajectory; monitor warranty stabilization and EV mix; any trade relief or faster mitigation could be upside catalysts .