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GM

General Motors Co (GM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024: Revenue $47.70B (+11%), EBIT-adjusted $2.51B (5.3% margin), EPS diluted adjusted $1.92; GAAP net loss of $2.96B driven by >$5B special charges (China JV impairments and Cruise restructuring) .
  • 2025 guidance targets Net Income $11.2–$12.5B, EBIT-adjusted $13.7–$15.7B, EPS diluted adjusted $11.00–$12.00, Adjusted Auto FCF $11–$13B; capex $10–$11B .
  • North America delivered Q4 EBIT-adjusted $2.27B (5.8% margin), but margin was impacted ~1.3 pts by legal/warranty items; EV portfolio achieved variable profit positive in Q4 .
  • Stock-relevant catalysts: China JV restructuring (no GM capital expected), Cruise refocus to personal AV and ~$1B annual run-rate savings, Super Cruise subscriptions scaling (target ~$2B annual revenue within 5 years) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • EV portfolio turned variable-profit positive in Q4 on scale, lower cell costs, and product mix (“we achieved variable profit positive on our EVs in the fourth quarter”) .
  • U.S. market share strength: 17.5% in Q4, highest since Q4 2018 ex-pandemic; disciplined incentives more than 3 pts below industry in Q4 .
  • Subscription monetization ramp: “Within 5 years, we expect to approach about $2 billion in total annual revenue from Super Cruise,” with attach rates ~20% as trials roll off .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP net loss in Q4 due to >$5B special items (China JV restructuring/impairment ~$4.0B; Cruise charges ~$0.5B; Buick dealer strategy $0.64B), driving EPS diluted to $(1.64) despite adjusted EPS $1.92 .
  • Warranty/legal headwinds: Q4 North America margin 5.8% included ~1.3 pts impact from breach-of-warranty/legal reserves; management flagged inflation in parts/labor doubling repair costs since 2018 .
  • China: large special item (~$4.1B) and equity income turned sharply negative; management still expects restructuring to restore profitability in 2025 (JV self-funded) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$42.98 $48.76 $47.70
EBIT-adjusted ($USD Billions)$1.76 $4.12 $2.51
EBIT-adjusted Margin (%)4.1% 8.4% 5.3%
Net Income Attributable to Stockholders ($USD Billions)$2.10 $3.06 $(2.96)
Net Income Margin (%)4.9% 6.3% (6.2%)
EPS Diluted ($)$1.59 $2.68 $(1.64)
EPS Diluted Adjusted ($)$1.24 $2.96 $1.92
Automotive Operating Cash Flow ($USD Billions)$4.69 $7.86 $4.77
Adjusted Automotive Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)$1.34 $5.83 $1.82

Segment and Key Items (Q4 YoY)

Segment/ItemQ4 2023Q4 2024
GMNA EBIT-adjusted ($USD Billions)$2.01 $2.27
GMNA EBIT-adjusted Margin (%)5.7% 5.8%
GMI EBIT-adjusted ($USD Billions)$0.27 $0.22
China Equity Income ($USD Billions)$0.093 $(4.06)
GM Financial EBT-adjusted ($USD Billions)$0.707 $0.719

Non-GAAP Adjustments (Q4 2024)

Adjustment (Q4 2024)Amount ($USD Billions)
China JV restructuring actions$4.010
Cruise restructuring$0.520
Buick dealer strategy$0.643
Other (restructuring, plant wind down, HQ relocation)$0.044 combined
Total Adjustments$5.217

EPS Reconciliation (Q4 2024)

ComponentAmount ($USD Billions)Per Share ($)
Diluted earnings (loss) per common share$(1.725) $(1.64)
Impact of dilutive securities— $0.03
Adjustments (special items)$5.217 $4.85
Tax effect on adjustments$(0.187) $(0.17)
Return from preferred shareholders$(1.239) $(1.15)
EPS diluted adjusted$2.066 $1.92

KPIs and Operating Indicators

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
U.S. Market Share (%)15.5% 16.5% 17.5%
Fleet Sales (% of total)19.3% 16.0% 16.9%
NA Two-shift Utilization (%)93.1% 109.1% 103.5%
Wholesale Vehicle Sales (000s, Total)943 1,033 1,039

Estimates vs Results

  • S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates were unavailable at retrieval; comparison omitted. Values from S&P Global could not be fetched due to system limits.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net income attributable to stockholders ($B)FY2025N/A$11.2–$12.5 —
EBIT-adjusted ($B)FY2025N/A$13.7–$15.7 —
EPS diluted ($)FY2025N/A$11.00–$12.00 —
EPS diluted adjusted ($)FY2025N/A$11.00–$12.00 —
Automotive operating cash flow ($B)FY2025N/A$21.0–$24.0 —
Adjusted automotive free cash flow ($B)FY2025N/A$11.0–$13.0 —
Capital expenditures ($B)FY2025N/A$10.0–$11.0 —
GM Financial EBT-adjusted ($B)FY2025N/A$2.5–$3.0 (call) —
Dividend per share ($)Q4 2024N/A$0.12 declared —
FY2024 Net Income ($B)FY2024$10.4–$11.1 (final) Actual $6.0 n/a result vs guidance
FY2024 EBIT-adjusted ($B)FY2024$14.0–$15.0 (final) Actual $14.9 n/a result vs guidance
FY2024 EPS diluted ($)FY2024$9.14–$9.64 (final) Actual $6.37 n/a result vs guidance
FY2024 EPS diluted adjusted ($)FY2024$10.00–$10.50 (final) Actual $10.60 n/a result vs guidance

Commentary:

  • 2025 guidance assumes “stable policy environment in North America” and ~$0.5B expense reduction at Cruise year-over-year; pricing planning assumption: North America down 1%–1.5% YoY; capex includes battery JV investments .
  • 2024 results: EBIT-adjusted at high end; EPS diluted adjusted exceeded guidance due to lower share count and execution; GAAP figures depressed by China JV impairment and Cruise special items .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Previous Mentions)Q3 2024 (Previous Mentions)Q4 2024 (Current Period)Trend
AI/Autonomy & Super CruiseCruise pivot from Origin to Bolt EV; AV focus, scale/cost; Super Cruise expanding to 22 nameplates; attach rates evolving Battery JV/scale; training/simplicity; continued Cruise review Refocus to personal AV; ~$1B run-rate savings; 360k Super Cruise enabled vehicles, target doubling in 2025; subscription attach ~20%, aim ~$2B annual revenue in 5 years Up (monetization clarity, savings)
Supply chain/ProductionManaging inventory; EV wholesales pacing; Orion timing adjusted Pull-forward of SUVs (~$400M EBIT impact); hurricanes-related downtime Seasonality, legal settlement/warranty reserves; January “noisy” retail environment Mixed (short-term noise)
Tariffs/Macro/PolicyRegulatory scenarios; portfolio/regulatory flexibility 2025 to be similar; price planning conservatism Engaging administration; preparedness to mitigate tariffs; guidance excludes policy changes Uncertain (planning conservative)
Product performance & pricingICE trucks/SUVs strength; incentives ~150 bps below industry; EV deliveries +40% YoY Pricing +$900M; incentives ~240 bps below industry; U.S. share +30 bps ATPs >$50k; incentives lowest in industry, >3 pts below average; U.S. share 17.5% in Q4 Up (share/pricing discipline)
Regional trends – ChinaExpect profitability; restructuring with partner Sales +14% QoQ; dealer inventory -50%; but continued challenges Special item ~$4.1B; inventory down >60%; NEV launch cadence; target 2025 profitability without GM capital Improving operationally; financial reset
Regulatory/legal & warrantyWarranty accrual pressure; inflation in repairs Warranty moderation hoped over time Q4 NA margin hit ~1.3 pts (legal settlement/warranty); plan to reduce warranty costs Focused mitigation
R&D/Capital efficiencyWinning with simplicity; 2,400 parts eliminated across launches Fixed cost program; share buybacks, ASR Capex $10–$11B; continued fixed cost discipline; Super Cruise compute efficiencies within budget Stable/efficient

Management Commentary

  • “We achieved variable profit positive on our EVs in the fourth quarter... through continued manufacturing scale and efficiencies... improved material costs... and expansion of our EV portfolio” — Paul Jacobson .
  • “Within 5 years, we expect to approach about $2 billion in total annual revenue from Super Cruise” — Mary Barra .
  • “We recorded a $4.1 billion special item in our auto China equity income... approximately half related to impairment... not expected to require any capital from GM” — Paul Jacobson .
  • “We expect EBIT-adjusted in the $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion range... EPS diluted adjusted $11 to $12... adjusted automotive free cash flow $11 to $13 billion” — Paul Jacobson .
  • “We have a proposed restructuring plan that will refocus our autonomous driving strategy on personal vehicles... run rate savings of about $1 billion” — Mary Barra .

Q&A Highlights

  • Volume and SAAR assumptions: 2025 SAAR similar to 2024; share strength expected to sustain; cautious stance due to noisy January .
  • Policy uncertainty: Guidance excludes impacts of tariffs/EPA/EV credits; flexibility to shift production across NA footprint to mitigate tariffs .
  • Pricing/incentives: Planning assumption −1% to −1.5% in NA; commercial environment stable; disciplined incentives .
  • Warranty/legal: Q4 NA margin impacted by legal settlement and breach-of-warranty reserves (~1.3 pts); plan to mitigate repair cost inflation .
  • China: Sequential improvement; restructuring actions to target 2025 profitability; JV has sufficient cash (no GM capital) .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 were not available at retrieval due to system limits; therefore comparisons to consensus are omitted. Future estimate comparisons should be anchored to S&P Global data once accessible.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Adjusted performance solid amid strategic reset: strong revenue, EBIT-adjusted and adjusted EPS, while GAAP loss reflects decisive China/Cruise charges that de-risk 2025 .
  • 2025 outlook is robust and conservative on policy/pricing; capex flat YoY with battery JV investments; FCF guidance supports continued capital returns .
  • North America fundamentals healthy (share, pricing discipline), though watch warranty/legal costs near term; management targeting reductions .
  • EV trajectory: variable profit achieved; 2025 savings ($2–$4B improvement target at low end) predicated on ~300k EV wholesales and cell/material cost gains .
  • Super Cruise is a growing software/subscription lever; doubling equipped fleet in 2025 and multi-year ramp to ~$2B annual revenue potential .
  • China restructuring is the wild card: operational progress, but financial reset marked; equity income targeted to turn positive in 2025 without GM capital .
  • Trading lens: Near-term narrative hinges on policy headlines and China restructuring execution; medium-term thesis supported by resilient ICE portfolio, improving EV economics, and subscription monetization .