Sign in
GE

GULFPORT ENERGY CORP (GPOR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • EPS beat despite revenue shortfall versus Street: Q3 2025 Primary EPS came in at $4.93 vs $4.67 consensus (beat), while revenue (ex-derivatives, S&P definition) was $307.6M vs $344.7M consensus (miss). Year-over-year sales rose sharply as commodity pricing and liquids uplift improved mix. The revenue delta vs GAAP “Total revenues” reflects derivative mark-to-market accounting in company reporting.* *
  • Strong operations and mix: Total net production rose 11% QoQ to 1,119.7 MMcfe/d; liquids volumes increased 15% QoQ to 22.0 MBbl/d, helping realized pricing (3.37 $/Mcfe incl. hedges).
  • Inventory and technical catalysts: ~125 gross Ohio Marcellus locations added (≈200% increase), validation of Utica U‑development (2 wells TD) unlocking ~20 gross dry gas locations; total undeveloped inventory now ~700 gross locations (~15 years) with breakevens below $2.50/MMBtu. These are key medium-term stock catalysts.
  • Capital returns and balance sheet: Company plans ~$125M of Q4 buybacks (targeting ~$325M for 2025) and completed redemption of remaining preferreds ($31.3M), with liquidity of ~$904M and borrowing base reaffirmed at $1.1B.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Inventory depth and quality improved: “effectively doubling our net drillable Marcellus inventory in Ohio” and validating U‑development across Utica; total undeveloped inventory ~700 gross locations, ~15 years at sub‑$2.50/MMBtu breakevens.
    • Liquids uplift and realized price premium: All-in realized price was $3.37/Mcfe, a ~$0.30 premium to Henry Hub, supported by hedges, liquids pricing, and marketing optionality to TGP 500/Transco 85.
    • Solid cash generation and returns: Adjusted EBITDA of $213.1M and adjusted FCF of $103.4M funded capex and buybacks; plan to allocate ~$125M to Q4 repurchases while keeping leverage ≤1x.

  • What Went Wrong

    • Top-line versus Street: S&P “Revenue” missed consensus ($307.6M vs $344.7M), despite YoY sales growth; GAAP “Total revenues” include derivative gains not in Street models.* *
    • Ongoing infrastructure headwinds: Known midstream constraints and offset-operator simultaneous ops pressured cadence; company is investing ~$35M in 2025 to mitigate anticipated Q1’26 downtime.
    • QoQ GAAP revenue compression: Total revenues fell QoQ ($379.7M vs $447.6M) largely due to smaller derivative gains ($66.8M in Q3 vs $136.1M in Q2).

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue (Sales ex-derivatives, $M)$215.9 $311.5 $312.9
Total Revenues (GAAP, $M)$253.9 $447.6 $379.7
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)$(0.83) $9.12 $4.45
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$178.1 $212.3 $213.1
Net Cash from Operations ($M)$189.7 $231.4 $209.1
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)$72.6 $64.6 $103.4

Operational KPIs and Costs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Production (Mcfe/d)1,057,164 1,006,299 1,119,678
Natural Gas (Mcf/d)966,522 891,359 987,746
Oil & Condensate (Bbl/d)4,618 7,843 6,892
NGL (Bbl/d)10,489 11,313 15,097
Avg Price incl. derivatives ($/Mcfe)3.09 3.61 3.37
LOE ($/Mcfe)0.19 0.19 0.20
Taxes other than income ($/Mcfe)0.07 0.08 0.08
Transport/Gathering/Processing/Compression ($/Mcfe)0.92 0.94 0.94
Recurring Cash G&A ($/Mcfe)0.13 0.13 0.13
Interest Expense ($/Mcfe)0.16 0.15 0.13

Consensus vs Actuals (S&P definitions; revenue excludes derivatives)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($M)$320.7*$335.1*$344.7*
Revenue Actual ($M)$338.1*$306.2*$307.6*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)$5.23*$5.20*$4.67*
Primary EPS Actual ($)$5.63*$5.42*$4.93*

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 2025)Current Guidance (Q3 2025)Change
Avg daily gas equivalent (MMcfe/d)FY 20251,040 – 1,065 ~1,040 Narrowed to low end
Avg daily liquids (MBbl/d)FY 202518.0 – 20.5 18.0 – 20.5 Maintained
% GasFY 2025~89% ~89% Maintained
Nat gas differential to NYMEX ($/Mcf)FY 2025(0.20) – (0.35) (0.20) – (0.35) Maintained
NGL (% of WTI)FY 202540% – 50% 40% – 50% Maintained
Oil differential to WTI ($/Bbl)FY 2025(5.50) – (6.50) (5.50) – (6.50) Maintained
LOE ($/Mcfe)FY 20250.19 – 0.22 0.19 – 0.22 Maintained
Taxes other than income ($/Mcfe)FY 20250.08 – 0.10 0.08 – 0.10 Maintained
T/G/P/C ($/Mcfe)FY 20250.93 – 0.97 0.93 – 0.97 Maintained
Recurring cash G&A ($/Mcfe)FY 20250.12 – 0.14 0.12 – 0.14 Maintained
Base capital expenditures ($M)FY 2025$370 – $395 ~ $390 Narrowed
Discretionary appraisal capex ($M)FY 2025—~ $30 Introduced
Discretionary development capex ($M)FY 2025—~ $35 Introduced
Share repurchasesFY 2025Program expanded to $1.5B authorization Expect ~$325M repurchased in 2025; plan ~$125M in Q4 Clarified 2025 spend

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Inventory depth & qualityTargeted discretionary acreage to extend runway by >2 years (Q2); reaffirmed focus on high‑quality, low‑breakeven locations (Q1). +125 gross Ohio Marcellus locations (~200% increase), U‑development validated, ~700 gross locations, ~15 years inventory, breakevens < $2.50/MMBtu. Improving; inventory runway extended
Operational cadence & midstreamQ2 noted ~40 MMcfe/d unplanned midstream issues and trending to low end of production range. Investing ~$35M to mitigate Q1’26 downtime; production cadence remains front‑loaded with lighter Q1–Q2. Proactive mitigation; cadence unchanged
Liquids/NGL uplift & marketingNoted wet‑gas pad with strong cash flow uplift in Q2. NGL yields strong from Marcellus Yankee pad; favorable midstream contract and component pricing; wet‑gas Utica outperforming. Positive liquids mix and netbacks
Demand (LNG/data centers)—Data center power + LNG expansion improving gas demand; marketing access to TGP 500/Transco 85 >$0.50 premium to Henry Hub. Structural tailwinds
Capital returnsBuyback authorization expanded to $1.5B (Q2). Plan ~$125M Q4 buybacks; ~$325M in 2025 while ≤1x leverage. Consistent, opportunistic repurchases
Marcellus North delineation—Planning first pad in early 2026; peer wells de‑risk northern Belmont/southern Jefferson, significant location add potential. Emerging opportunity

Management Commentary

  • “These wells were recently successfully drilled and are scheduled for completion in the coming months, validating the technical feasibility of this development concept… This discretionary investment adds nearly one net year of high‑quality, dry gas inventory…” — John Reinhart, CEO.
  • “Our all‑in realized price for the third quarter was $3.37 per Mcfe… a premium of $0.30 above the NYMEX Henry Hub Index price… supported by our hedge position, liquids portfolio, and diverse marketing.” — Michael Hodges, CFO.
  • “We plan to repurchase approximately $125 million of our outstanding common stock during the fourth quarter of 2025… while maintaining financial leverage at or below one times.” — John Reinhart, CEO.

Q&A Highlights

  • Why accelerate U‑development appraisal in 2025? To unlock sub‑economic short laterals into economic U‑wells (≈20 gross locations), bolster 2026 dry gas, and expand inventory while commodity backdrop is constructive.
  • Capital allocation: Management continues to prioritize high‑return organic opportunities and buybacks; external M&A must compete with these returns.
  • Production cadence: Front‑loaded capex leads to stronger 2H vs 1H; Q1’26 will still see some midstream/offset SIMOPS impacts despite mitigation projects.
  • NGL uplift drivers: Strong Marcellus pad recoveries under new midstream agreement; favorable pricing on barrel components; wet‑gas Utica yields exceeding expectations.
  • Marcellus North: Peer wells helped de‑risk structural mapping; Gulfport plans first development early 2026 to assess mix and inform processing agreements.

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs Street: EPS beat ($4.93 vs $4.67), revenue miss ($307.6M vs $344.7M). The gap with GAAP “Total revenues” is largely derivative accounting; Street revenue frameworks typically exclude derivative gains/losses.*
  • Trend: EPS exceeded consensus in Q1 and Q2 as well, while revenue printed close-to/mixed around consensus, reflecting commodity/hedge dynamics and volumes.*
  • Potential revisions: Beat on EPS alongside stronger liquids and marketing uplift could support upward EPS revisions; revenue models may need to reflect higher liquids and realized price premiums even as midstream cadence tempers near-term volume shape.*

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • EPS beat with strong cash generation; revenue optics vs Street reflect expected accounting differences (derivatives vs sales). *
  • Structural catalysts: Inventory depth and optionality improved materially (Ohio Marcellus + U‑development), extending high‑quality runway at low breakevens.
  • Liquids and marketing uplift are differentiators, supporting realized price premiums and netbacks.
  • Guidance de‑risked toward low-end production point with tighter capex; added discretionary spend should cushion Q1’26 midstream headwinds.
  • Capital returns remain front-and-center with ~$125M Q4 buybacks planned and balance sheet strength (liquidity ~$904M; base reaffirmed).
  • Near-term watch items: Completion/production of U‑wells (late Q4 timing), Q4 buyback cadence, 2026 program shape vs expected SIMOPS/midstream maintenance, and any data‑center/LNG-linked marketing updates.

Additional references and materials:

  • Q3 2025 8‑K press release and supplemental financials (production, pricing, financial statements, guidance).
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A).
  • Prior quarter press releases (Q2/Q1 2025) for trend context.

S&P Global disclaimer: Where noted with *, consensus and actual values are retrieved from S&P Global.