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GP

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was weak on profitability despite stable revenues: net loss widened to $72.9M (−$1.14 EPS) vs $51.4M (−$0.81 EPS) YoY; Adjusted EBITDA of −$24.2M, impacted by lower crush margins and $16.6M restructuring costs .
  • Management initiated decisive restructuring, Eco‑Energy marketing partnership, and formed a Risk Committee; guided to quarter‑by‑quarter positive EBITDA for the remainder of 2025 and to exit FY25 with ~$93M SG&A annualized run‑rate and corporate/trade SG&A in the low‑$40M annualized range .
  • Carbon capture “Advantage Nebraska” compression and lateral pipeline construction are underway, targeting early Q4 2025 start‑up; active monetization plans for 45Z tax credits and voluntary offsets, with liquidity enhanced via a $30M Ancora facility and mezzanine notes maturity extension to May 15, 2026 .
  • Key trading catalysts: execution on cost reductions and hedging discipline, progress/milestones on carbon start‑up and credit monetization, and protein commercialization traction (aqua/pet), against a backdrop of improving ethanol margins into Q2–Q3 per management .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • 100% utilization across nine operating plants; OpEx per gallon down >$0.03 since Q4 2024; record operational discipline with KPI‑driven execution .
  • Board/leadership actions: Risk Committee created; Executive Committee leading; Board refreshed with cooperation agreement with Ancora; SG&A cost program well ahead of plan toward $50M annualized savings .
  • Strategic partnerships and commercialization: Eco‑Energy selected as exclusive ethanol marketer to reduce logistics costs and improve working capital (AR turns, inventory); UHP Sequence 60% shipments started; expanding aqua and pet food sales and bulk shipping from Q3 .

What Went Wrong

  • Ethanol crush margin and profitability deteriorated: consolidated crush margin −$14.7M vs −$9.3M YoY; Adjusted EBITDA −$24.2M vs −$21.5M, driven by lower segment margins and $16.6M restructuring costs .
  • Q1 SG&A rose to $42.9M (+$11.1M YoY) on restructuring/severance; net loss widened to −$72.9M (EPS −$1.14) as interest expense increased due to lower capitalized interest .
  • CST (Clean Sugar Technology) temporarily paused due to external wastewater constraints; Fairmont idled; protein markets remained pressured by soybean meal oversupply, delaying margin uplift .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L vs prior quarters

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$658.7 $584.0 $601.5
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$48.2 $(54.9) $(72.9)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.69 $(0.86) $(1.14)
Gross Margin ($USD Millions)$78.1 $6.2 $3.0
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$83.3 $(18.9) $(41.5)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$53.3 $(18.2) $(24.2)
Consolidated Ethanol Crush Margin ($USD Millions)$58.3 $(15.5) $(14.7)

Note: S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates for Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 were unavailable via the GetEstimates tool at the time of this analysis.

Segment breakdown (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Segment Metric ($USD Thousands)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Revenues – Ethanol Production$505,659 $497,772
Revenues – Agribusiness & Energy Services$98,996 $109,829
Gross Margin – Ethanol Production$(2,643) $(5,692)
Gross Margin – Agribusiness & Energy Services$11,010 $8,731
Operating Income (Loss) – Ethanol Production$(33,653) $(39,550)
Operating Income (Loss) – Agribusiness & Energy Services$6,004 $1,533
Adjusted EBITDA – Ethanol Production$(13,621) $(19,416)
Adjusted EBITDA – Agribusiness & Energy Services$7,056 $3,156

Operating KPIs across quarters

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Ethanol Production (gallons, thousands)220,299 209,540 195,328
Distillers Grains (equiv. dried tons, thousands)489 469 417
Ultra‑High Protein (tons, thousands)69 54 68
Renewable Corn Oil (pounds, thousands)77,074 73,376 64,263
Corn Consumed (bushels, thousands)75,140 71,221 66,264
Ethanol Sold (Agribusiness, gallons, thousands)262,111 269,758 255,721

Liquidity and leverage snapshot

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Current Update
Cash & Restricted Cash ($USD Millions)$209.4 $126.6 —
Revolver Availability ($USD Millions)$200.7 $204.5 —
Total Debt ($USD Millions)$575.4 $571.8 —
Corporate Liquidity (unrestricted + distributable + availability) ($USD Millions)—$48.6 (as of 3/31/25) $89.2 (as of 5/7/25)
Mezzanine Notes Maturity——Extended to May 15, 2026
Ancora Revolving Credit Facility——$30M secured facility maturing July 30, 2025

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
EBITDA trajectory2025 quartersNo explicit quarterly EBITDA positivity guide in prior quarter“Currently EBITDA‑positive for the remainder of the year” (quarter‑by‑quarter) Introduced positive quarterly guide
SG&A annualized run rateFY 2025 exitUp to $50M annual cost reductions targeted; 2024 SG&A $118M baseline Exit FY25 at ~$93M annualized; corporate/trade SG&A low‑$40M annualized by year‑end Lowered SG&A; added specificity
Capex (excluding carbon equipment)FY 2025$20–$35M in 2025 ~$20M for remainder of 2025 Lowered range
Carbon capture start‑up (Advantage Nebraska)H2 2025Second half 2025; late Q3/early Q4 discussed Early Q4 2025 (lateral pipeline/compression underway) Narrowed/timed
Tax rate (normalized)Ongoing~23–24% normalized tax rate 23–24% normalized tax rate maintained Maintained
Working capital efficiencyOngoing—Eco‑Energy partnership expected to reduce working capital by ~$50M via faster AR turns/lower inventory New operational guidance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Hedging & Risk ManagementQ4: acknowledged quarter should have been hedged; Board involved, assess quarter‑by‑quarter Risk Committee formed; >50% of Q2 crush margins hedged; systematic analytics‑driven approach Strengthening discipline
Carbon Capture & 45ZQ3: on track for H2’25; favorable GREET model; outlined economics Compression/laterals under construction; early Q4 start‑up; active credit monetization plans Execution progressing
SG&A RestructuringQ4: initiated $50M cost savings; first $30M executed On track toward ~$93M SG&A exit run‑rate; corporate/trade SG&A low‑$40M annualized Accelerating savings
CST (Clean Sugar Technology)Q3/Q4: commissioning; food safety certs; wastewater constraints noted Temporarily paused; will resume post wastewater solution; Shenandoah optimized for ethanol/protein/oil Paused to optimize site economics
Protein CommercializationQ3: record UHP; building pet/aqua channels Sequence 60% shipments begun; aqua volumes 20k→80k tons in 2025; pet trials with majors Scaling higher‑value segments
Tariffs/Macro & Supply/DemandQ4: winter oversupply; need export/demand uptick No adverse tariff impact seen; ethanol inventories 25M bbl, expected draw to ~23M bbl in driving season Cautious but constructive Q2–Q3

Management Commentary

  • “We are fully aligned and deeply committed to disciplined execution… focused on returning this company to sustained profitability.” – Michelle Mapes (Interim PEO) .
  • “We are positioned to deliver positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year based on current market conditions.” – Phil Boggs (CFO) .
  • “Eco‑Energy… will allow us to maximize the value of our low‑carbon ethanol, while expanding our scale and reach.” – Eco‑Energy partnership announcement .
  • “Construction… is advancing on pace… start‑up in early Q4. We’re actively engaged to monetize our 45Z and Q credits.” – Michelle Mapes .
  • “We have secured a little more than half of our Q2 crush margins at favorable levels.” – Imre Havasi .

Q&A Highlights

  • Hedging framework: systematic, analytics‑driven across crush and co‑products; Board Risk Committee oversight; >50% Q2 margin secured .
  • CEO search: in final stages; announcement expected “near future” .
  • Carbon timeline: Tallgrass laterals/compression equipment on schedule; early Q4 start‑up targeted .
  • Tariffs: no current adverse impacts; watch Canada/U.K./China scenarios; potential upside via new trade agreements for protein .
  • Liquidity: corporate liquidity clarified; $30M Ancora facility enhances flexibility; active noncore asset sales .
  • SG&A cadence: most reductions effective by Q3/Q4; corporate/trade SG&A targeted at $12–$13M per quarter .
  • DCO pricing: ~$0.55/lb today vs mid‑40s earlier; optimistic outlook on premium vs soybean oil, contributing to margins .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for EPS, revenue, and EBITDA for Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 was unavailable via the GetEstimates tool at the time of this analysis. As such, beats/misses vs consensus cannot be assessed and may require manual verification from S&P Global’s platform.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near‑term trading: watch Q2/Q3 margin capture given improved hedging discipline and strengthening ethanol/DCO fundamentals; management expects positive EBITDA quarter‑by‑quarter for the remainder of 2025 .
  • Structural catalyst: carbon capture start‑up in early Q4 2025 with active 45Z/offset monetization; milestones and any term sheet disclosures are stock catalysts .
  • SG&A and working capital: accelerated cost reductions plus Eco‑Energy logistics optimization (target ~$50M working capital reduction) should improve cash conversion and reduce revolver usage .
  • Protein mix shift: prioritize higher‑margin pet/aqua volumes and bulk shipping starting Q3; monitor volume growth trajectory and margin uplift .
  • Liquidity/debt: extended mezzanine maturity and added $30M facility enhance flexibility; track noncore asset sales progress and refinancing/paydown updates .
  • Operational execution: 100% utilization at nine plants and OpEx per gallon reductions underpin margin recovery in a normalizing crush environment .
  • Risk watch: ethanol inventories/demand and tariff policy; CST pauses are rational while wastewater solutions are pursued; guidance hinges on policy stability around 45Z .