Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered positive EPS ($0.17) and net income ($11.9M), supported by $36.0M gain on asset sale and recognition of 45Z tax credits; revenue fell 22.8% YoY to $508.5M and Adjusted EBITDA was $52.6M, roughly flat YoY .
• Balance sheet de-risking: sale of Obion repaid $130.7M junior mezzanine debt; converts extended via $200M exchange/subscription; total debt fell to $353.4M at 9/30/25 .
• Carbon capture operational in Nebraska: York fully online; Central City and Wood River ramping; company expects $15–$25M 45Z monetization in Q4 2025 and $40–$50M of 45Z-related Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2025 .
• Operational performance: 101% plant utilization across nine operating plants; consolidated ethanol crush margin improved slightly YoY to $59.6M .
• Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable in our tooling; we could not assess beats/misses vs estimates (S&P Global data unavailable).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Carbon capture launch at York and commissioning of Central City/Wood River, enabling monetization of 45Z credits; CEO: “Our Advantage Nebraska strategy is operational… carbon is delivered to the pipeline and we’re generating credits” .
  • Balance sheet actions (asset sale and debt exchanges) eliminated near‑term mezzanine overhang and extended converts; CFO: “We now have no significant debt maturities for the next several years” .
  • Operational excellence delivered 101% utilization and strong crush margin; CEO: “Our plants… delivered outstanding performance, with strong utilization running at 101%” .

• What Went Wrong

  • Revenue declined 22.8% YoY to $508.5M due to lower volumes/prices and exiting a third‑party marketing agreement; ethanol gallons sold fell 10.5% YoY to 197.3M .
  • Net income down vs prior year largely on $35.7M non‑recurring interest expense from mezzanine note extinguishment; interest expense surged to $47.8M in Q3 .
  • Ethanol production operating income dropped to $4.4M from $35.2M YoY; segment Adjusted EBITDA declined 48.9% YoY to $28.7M amid weaker margins .

Financial Results

Year-over-Year Summary (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025)

Sequential Summary (Q2 2025 → Q3 2025)

Segment Revenues and Profitability (YoY)

KPIs (Q3 2025)

Notes:

• Non-GAAP treatment: 45Z production tax credits were recorded as income tax benefit under ASC 740 and added back to Adjusted EBITDA to reflect operating benefit .
• One-time items: $36.0M gain on sale of assets; $2.7M restructuring costs; $35.7M non-recurring interest expense related to mezzanine notes .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO: “Our Advantage Nebraska strategy is operational… carbon is delivered to the pipeline and we’re generating credits. Our carbon strategy is now a reality… the earnings power of Green Plains is being transformed.” .
• CEO: “Operational excellence is our foundation… strong utilization running at 101%... demonstrates our ability to deliver… safely, efficiently and on schedule.” .
• CFO: “We now have no significant debt maturities for the next several years… forward interest expense for the next 12 months looks to be $30–$35M.” .

Q&A Highlights

• Non-Nebraska 45Z opportunity: After Obion sale, management expects ~$38M P&L impact in 2026 from non-pipeline plants achieving sub‑50 CI; minimal upfront CapEx needed given ILUC removal .
• Converts rationale: Reduce overhang, focus organization on execution (“buy corn, run plants, sell products”) .
• CCS ramp and Trailblazer pipeline: York fully operational; Central City/Wood River ramping; some commissioning timing dependency on pipeline/well injection, but capacity sufficient to continue deliveries .
• Hedging and demand: ~75% crush hedged in Q4; active positions in Q1’26; export demand >2B gal in 2025 with Canada/EU/India drivers; nationwide E15 acceptance likely 2H26–2027 .
• Clean Sugar Technology (CST): Works technically but requires debottlenecking CapEx; reevaluation mid‑2026 given higher-return carbon priorities .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus estimates for Q3 2025 and near-term periods were unavailable via our tool; we could not benchmark revenue/EPS/EBITDA vs Street expectations (S&P Global data unavailable).

Implications: Absent formal consensus, investors should anchor on reported EPS ($0.17), Adjusted EBITDA ($52.6M) and revenue ($508.5M); incorporate management’s go-forward interest expense run-rate ($30–$35M), Q4 45Z monetization ($15–$25M), and FY 2025 45Z-related Adjusted EBITDA ($40–$50M) into models .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Earnings quality improved: GAAP profitability returned; Adjusted EBITDA stable YoY despite lower volumes/prices, aided by 45Z tax credits and asset sale gains .
• Carbon monetization is live: York CCS online; Central City/Wood River commissioning; Q4 45Z monetization ($15–$25M) supports near-term cash flow and Q4 margins .
• Balance sheet de-risked: Debt reduced to $353.4M and mezzanine extinguished; converts extended to 2030 via $200M transactions .
• Structural cost resets: Consolidated SG&A run-rate targeted low $90M; corporate/trade SG&A low $40M; recurring interest expense guided to $30–$35M next 12 months .
• Operational trajectory: 101% utilization, improved crush margin, and disciplined hedging (~75% Q4) set up for “solid Q4 performance” .
• 2026 earnings power: Management frames combined carbon-related earnings power of ~$188M for 2026 (Nebraska + non-pipeline), plus SG&A and OpEx reductions, implying material step-up vs 2025 baseline .
• Watch catalysts: Full CCS ramp at Nebraska plants, timing of Trailblazer sequestration injection, 45Z monetization cash receipts, export/E15 dynamics, and any capital returns once deleveraging advances .