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HOME DEPOT (HD)·Q4 2026 Earnings Summary

Home Depot Q4 FY2025: Comp Sales Turn Positive, Stock Surges 3%

February 24, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

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Home Depot reported fourth quarter fiscal 2025 results that were "largely in-line with expectations," with comparable sales turning positive for the first time in nine quarters. The stock surged +3.1% to $388.55 on earnings day, as investors responded favorably to positive comp sales and constructive FY2026 guidance despite ongoing housing market headwinds.

Did Home Depot Beat Earnings?

Home Depot delivered Q4 FY2025 results that met Street expectations, with some headline noise due to the prior year's extra week:

MetricQ4 FY2025Q4 FY2024YoY ChangeNotes
Revenue$38.2B $39.7B-3.8%14th week added ~$2.5B to prior year
Comparable Sales+0.4% U.S. comps +0.3%
Gross Margin32.6% 32.8%-20 bpsGMS mix impact
GAAP EPS$2.58 $3.02-14.6%14th week added ~$0.30 to prior year
Adjusted EPS$2.72 $3.13-13.1%Excludes intangible amortization
Operating Margin10.1% 11.3%-120 bps
Adj. Operating Margin10.5% 11.7%-120 bps

Key Context: The fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 included a 14th week that contributed approximately $2.5 billion in sales and $0.30 to diluted EPS . Adjusting for this calendar difference, underlying demand was "relatively stable throughout the year" according to CEO Ted Decker.

Monthly Comp Performance :

MonthTotal CompanyU.S.
November-0.2%-0.3%
December+0.1%-0.2%
January+1.3%+1.4%

January strength was driven by Winter Storm Fern activity .

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Full Year Fiscal 2025 Performance

For the full year, Home Depot delivered modest top-line growth driven by the SRS Distribution acquisition:

MetricFY2025FY2024YoY Change
Revenue$164.7B $159.5B+3.2%
Comparable Sales+0.3%
U.S. Comps+0.5%
Gross Margin33.3% 33.4%-10 bps
GAAP EPS$14.23 $14.91-4.6%
Adjusted EPS$14.69 $15.24-3.6%
Operating Margin12.7% 13.5%-80 bps
Adj. Operating Margin13.1% 13.8%-70 bps

The year-over-year decline in earnings was driven by higher operating expenses from the SRS acquisition integration, increased interest expense from higher debt levels, and the 53rd week benefit in the prior year .

What Did Management Say?

CEO Ted Decker highlighted market share gains despite a challenging backdrop:

"Our fourth quarter results were largely in line with our expectations, reflecting the lack of storm activity in the third quarter and ongoing consumer uncertainty and pressure in housing. Additionally, storm activity in January provided a sales benefit in the quarter. Adjusting for storms, underlying demand was relatively stable throughout the year."

Key operational highlights:

  • 8 of 16 merchandising departments posted positive comps
  • Online sales up ~11% leveraging interconnected platforms
  • Average ticket increased 2.4%; comp transactions down 1.6%
  • Big ticket (>$1K) transactions positive 1.3%
  • Pro outperformed DIY with strength in gypsum, wire, concrete, plumbing
  • Customer satisfaction score increased every quarter; hourly tenure highest since 2017
  • Store count reached 2,359 at fiscal year-end

What Did Management Guide?

Home Depot provided FY2026 guidance that brackets current consensus expectations:

Guidance Bridge

MetricFY2026 GuidanceFY2025 ActualConsensus
Total Sales Growth+2.5% to +4.5% +3.2%~$165B*
Comparable SalesFlat to +2.0% +0.3%
Gross Margin~33.1% 33.3%
Operating Margin12.4% to 12.6% 12.7%
Adj. Operating Margin12.8% to 13.0% 13.1%
GAAP EPS GrowthFlat to +4.0% $14.23
Adjusted EPS GrowthFlat to +4.0% $14.69~$14.50*
New Stores~15 12
New SRS Locations40-50
SRS Organic GrowthMid-single digit % Low single digit %
Capex~2.5% of sales
Effective Tax Rate~24.3% 23.9%

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The guidance implies:

  • Revenue range: $168.8B to $172.1B (at midpoint ~$170B)
  • Adjusted EPS range: $14.69 to $15.28
  • Home improvement market: expected down 1% to up 1%, with HD outperforming in all scenarios
  • Intangible amortization impact: ~40 basis points on operating margin, ~$0.50 on EPS
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Capital Allocation Update

Dividend Increase: Home Depot raised its quarterly dividend by 1.3% to $2.33 per share, equating to $9.32 annually .

Share Repurchases: The company did not repurchase shares in fiscal 2025 . Management expects to return to share repurchases sometime in the first half of 2027 once the company returns to an excess cash position .

Capital Expenditures: FY2025 capex was $3.7 billion , with FY2026 expected at approximately 2.5% of sales (~$4.2B-$4.3B) .

Balance Sheet:

MetricFeb 1, 2026Feb 2, 2025Notes
Inventory$25.8B $23.4B+10% YoY: GMS addition + higher tariff costs
Inventory Turns4.4x 4.7xDown from prior year
ROIC25.7% 31.3%Impacted by acquisitions
Dividends Paid (FY)$9.2B

How Did the Stock React?

Home Depot shares surged +3.1% to $388.55 on earnings day, reflecting investor enthusiasm for positive comp sales and constructive guidance despite housing headwinds.

Stock MetricValue
Current Price$388.55 (+3.1%)
Day Range$386.22 - $394.14
52-Week High$426.75
52-Week Low$326.31
Market Cap$387B

What Changed From Last Quarter?

FactorQ3 FY2025Q4 FY2025Change
Comp Sales-1.3%+0.4% Turned positive
U.S. Comps-1.2%+0.3% Turned positive
Gross Margin33.4%32.6% -80 bps (GMS mix)
Avg. Ticket Change+2.4% Price + mix
Comp Transactions-1.6%
Online Sales+11% Interconnected strength

Key shift: Comparable sales turned positive for the first time since early fiscal 2023, a meaningful inflection point that helped drive the after-hours rally.

Risks and Headwinds

Management highlighted several ongoing challenges in the forward-looking statements :

  1. Housing market pressure: Elevated mortgage rates continue to suppress existing home sales and large remodeling projects
  2. Consumer uncertainty: Macroeconomic uncertainty affecting discretionary spending
  3. Tariff exposure: Potential impact from trade policy changes on imported goods
  4. Integration execution: Continued integration of SRS Distribution and recent GMS acquisition
  5. Margin pressure: Intangible amortization from acquisitions creating ~40 bps operating margin headwind

Q&A Highlights

Tariffs and Pricing

CFO Billy Bastek provided clarity on tariff exposure :

"More than 50% of our products are sourced domestically and haven't been subject to tariffs... We're mostly done with tariff-related pricing actions as it relates to the impacts back to April. Our exposure was kind of mid-single digits, and then if you think of SKU price, that's right about 3%."

SRS Performance in Challenging Market

CFO Richard McPhail highlighted SRS's resilience in a brutal Q4 for roofing :

"In the fourth quarter, according to ARMA data, total industry shipments of shingle squares were down 28% year-over-year. That's the lowest industry volume since 2019... With that, SRS performed exceptionally, and by all external measures, took share in the quarter."

SRS was down low single-digit comps but gained market share. Management expects mid-single-digit organic sales growth from SRS in FY2026 .

Tax Stimulus Expectations

CEO Ted Decker was measured on tax relief benefits :

"If you take a midpoint... you would get at the midpoint, maybe half a point of comp support at that high level analysis of tax relief. We're hearing that it's just as likely that that's either going to be used for debt pay down, for lower income deciles, or saved by higher income deciles. We're not planning on a lot."

Quarterly Earnings Shape

CFO McPhail provided unusual quarterly guidance detail :

  • H2 comps expected stronger than H1 due to storm activity compares
  • Q1 gross margin down ~50 bps YoY due to GMS annualization
  • Q1 EPS expected mid-single-digit % negative YoY — "This is solely due to acquisition annualization and a few timing comparisons"

Pro Ecosystem Momentum

EVP Mike Rowe highlighted pro investments paying off :

  • AI takeoff tools: Pros can type in a project type and get a pre-populated list of materials
  • Two Sigma delivery reliability achieved — on-time and complete
  • Real-time delivery tracking now available for big and bulky items
  • B2B online sales outpaced overall online growth
  • Trade credit platform continuing to grow
  • Pro capabilities "high percentage" done, with continued investments through 2026

Big Ticket Inflection Point?

CEO Decker noted big ticket discretionary hasn't turned yet :

"That's really the telltale for us of when we think the demand profile is going to change for the upside, and we still have not seen that... we have not seen the increase in big ticket, and that will be a telltale for a turn in the market."

However, big ticket transactions over $1,000 were positive 1.3% in Q4 , driven by plumbing, electrical, and power categories rather than appliances and discretionary remodeling.

2026 Ticket vs. Transactions

For FY2026, management expects :

  • ~3% ticket increase from tariff-related pricing (higher early, lower late in year)
  • Negative transactions offsetting ticket gains
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Looking Ahead

Upcoming catalysts:

  • Q1 FY2026 earnings expected late May 2026
  • Spring selling season performance (key demand driver)
  • Housing market recovery trajectory
  • Interest rate environment and Fed policy

The company remains confident in its ability to grow market share in any environment while continuing to invest in interconnected retail capabilities and professional customer initiatives through SRS and GMS .

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