HG Q1 2025 Combined Ratio Soars to 111.6% on Catastrophe Hits
- Strong Capital Position for Buybacks and Growth: Management highlighted that, despite a modest $10 million buyback during the quarter, there is plenty of capital available to continue repurchasing shares and fund growth initiatives, even while shares trade below book value.
- Confidence in Double-Digit Top Line Growth: The executives remain bullish on achieving double-digit growth in gross premiums written, underpinning their belief in sustainable revenue expansion, which supports a robust bull narrative.
- Balanced Strategy in Uncertain Markets: The management emphasized balancing share buybacks with capital allocation for growth, demonstrating a disciplined approach to enhancing shareholder value even amid market uncertainty.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue (Income Statement) | +17% (USD 768.8M vs. USD 658.6M) | HG’s Total Revenue increased by 17% YoY, reflecting overall business growth. This moderate improvement, from USD 658.6M in Q1 2024 to USD 768.8M in Q1 2025, suggests expansion across revenue streams while benefits from regional segments such as Bermuda were beginning to materialize, albeit not as prominently as in the geographic breakdown. |
Net Income | -35% (USD 181.3M vs. USD 277.3M) | Net income declined by nearly 35% YoY from USD 277.3M to USD 181.3M, indicating that profit margins were compressed despite higher revenue. This decrease could be due to rising expenses or adverse impacts such as increased underwriting costs or catastrophe-related losses that offset revenue growth, a contrast to the previous period’s stronger profitability. |
Basic Earnings Per Share | -44% (USD 0.79 vs. USD 1.42) | Basic EPS dropped by approximately 44% YoY as a direct consequence of the significant decline in net income. The EPS deterioration from USD 1.42 in Q1 2024 to USD 0.79 in Q1 2025 underscores the challenges HG faced in converting revenue into earnings, reflecting operational pressures not seen in the previous period. |
Geographic Breakdown Revenue | +40% (USD 843.3M vs. USD 603.3M) | Geographic revenue rose nearly 40% YoY, boosting overall performance to USD 843.3M from USD 603.3M. This robust increase highlights strong contributions from expanded market penetration and pricing improvements across regions, signaling an improved revenue mix compared to the previous period. |
Bermuda’s Revenue | +62% (USD 473.3M vs. USD 291.7M) | Bermuda’s revenue surged by 62% YoY, rising from USD 291.7M to USD 473.3M. This dramatic jump is attributed to factors such as higher gross and net premium volumes driven by new business, expanded participations, and rate increases that built on the previous period’s momentum in the Bermuda segment. |
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Corporate Expenses | Q1 2025 | Expected to decrease to approximately $50 million to $55 million per year | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
Growth from A.M. Best Rating Upgrade | Q1 2025 | Anticipates an additional $80 million in gross premiums written (total $160M) | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
Mid-Year Property Cat Renewals | Q1 2025 | Expects higher demand with increased rates for loss‐affected accounts | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
International Segment Opportunities | Q1 2025 | Sees attractive opportunities in marine and property insurance; expanded offerings | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
Hamilton Select Platform | Q1 2025 | Anticipates strong and increasing submission flow despite increased competition | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
Loss Reserves | Q1 2025 | Will continue to monitor and adjust for inflationary trends in casualty lines | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross Premiums Written | Q1 2025 | Anticipates an additional $80 million in gross premiums written during 2025 | 843,306Vs. Q1 2024 of 721,941(an increase of 121,365, exceeding the guided $80 million increase) | Beat |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Capital Management and Share Buybacks | Q3 2024: Discussed flexibility to use a $150 million buyback authorization with a $10 million deployment. Q2 2024: Detailed factors influencing timing and execution with a new repurchase authorization. Q4 2024: No mention [document]. | Q1 2025: Repurchased $10 million in shares with $112 million remaining under the authorization; emphasized ample capital for growth and future buybacks even in an uncertain market. | Recurring topic with consistent strategic focus; absent in Q4 2024 but reappears in Q1 2025 with concrete figures and an emphasis on flexibility. |
Revenue Growth and International Expansion | Q2 2024: Reported strong top-line growth, record gross premiums and significant international segment gains. Q3 2024: Noted double-digit growth in Bermuda and specialty lines along with a steady international expansion. Q4 2024: Reported a 24% increase in gross premiums and robust performance in the International segment. | Q1 2025: Achieved 17% growth in gross premiums written with double-digit gains in both Bermuda (18%) and International segments (15%), also supported by an A.M. Best rating upgrade facilitating new business opportunities. | Consistently positive growth across periods; Q1 2025 continues the expansion trend with clear performance metrics and enhanced market confidence due to rating improvements. |
Underwriting Performance and Catastrophe Risk | Q2 2024: Demonstrated excellent underwriting performance with a record low combined ratio (84.4%) and no catastrophe losses. Q3 2024: Reported solid group results and disciplined underwriting while noting moderate catastrophe impacts from hurricanes and hailstorms. Q4 2024: Showed strong full‐year performance with moderate catastrophe losses (e.g., hurricanes and hailstorms) but maintained underwriting income. | Q1 2025: Experienced an underwriting loss due to significant catastrophe losses from the California wildfires, with the combined ratio rising to 111.6% and an 18.9-point increase in the loss ratio. | Recurring subject with a shift in sentiment; while previous periods posted strong results, Q1 2025’s underwriting performance is hit by large-scale catastrophe losses, marking a notable deterioration. |
Casualty Reserve Development and Attritional Losses | Q2 2024: Reported modest movement in casualty reserve development with no significant surprises and slightly increased attritional loss ratios in some segments. Q3 2024: Noted one large unfavorable casualty reserve adjustment in International but overall favorable prior period gains; attritional loss ratios varied by segment. Q4 2024: Emphasized 11 consecutive years of favorable reserve development with only a slight rise in attritional loss ratio tied to specific events. | Q1 2025: Reported overall favorable casualty reserve development—with some claims settling below estimates and improved Hurricane Ian review—and a lower attritional loss ratio (51.9%, down 5.3 points) compared to Q1 2024. | Sustained focus with gradual improvements; despite past fluctuations, Q1 2025 shows favorable reserve adjustments and an improved attritional loss ratio, signaling operational benefits even amid catastrophe pressures. |
Increased Competition in Specialized Markets | Q2 2024: Mentioned increased competition in specialized (property-focused) renewals with a strategic hold on capacity until later in the season. Q3 2024: Discussed heightened competition in markets such as cyber insurance, D&O, and large property placements, with pricing pressures balanced by rate increases. Q4 2024: Noted attractive pricing levels in the Excess and Surplus space despite increased competition, pointing to available growth opportunities. | Q1 2025: No mention of increased competition in specialized markets. | Declining emphasis; while prior periods featured detailed discussions on competitive pressures, the current period omits this topic, suggesting a possible shift in focus or reduced concern. |
Ratings and Regulatory Environment | Q2 2024: Reported a rating upgrade to A from A.M. Best and a new A– from Fitch, with no regulatory discussion. Q3 2024: Discussed the A.M. Best upgrade’s significant impact on reinsurance operations, with no in‐depth regulatory commentary. Q4 2024: No specific mention of ratings or regulatory issues [document]. | Q1 2025: Announced an A.M. Best rating upgrade to A, which contributed to $40 million in new business, and acknowledged potential indirect impacts from tariffs and economic uncertainty. | Continuity with added nuance; while ratings improvements were consistently highlighted earlier, Q1 2025 introduces discussion of regulatory factors (tariffs, recession risk), expanding the focus beyond ratings alone. |
Expense Management Pressures | Q2 2024: Maintained focus on meeting a $50 million annualized guidance for corporate expenses driven by salaries, professional fees, etc.. Q3 2024: Noted a declining expense ratio trend since 2019 as the company scales. Q4 2024: No mention [document]. | Q1 2025: Highlighted rising acquisition expenses driven by changes in business mix (more casualty and property business) and profit commissions, indicating a pressure on the overall expense ratio though other expense ratios remain controlled. | Emerging pressure; previous periods maintained stable or declining expense ratios, but Q1 2025 emphasizes increased acquisition-related costs, suggesting growing expense management challenges. |
Market Uncertainty and Operational Flexibility | Q3 2024: Addressed market uncertainty stemming from natural catastrophes, climate change, geopolitical turmoil, and inflation; highlighted operational flexibility via robust capital deployment and disciplined underwriting. Q2 2024 & Q4 2024: Little to no direct mention of these topics [document]. | Q1 2025: Acknowledged potential recession and overall market uncertainty while emphasizing resilience and operational flexibility through strong capital management (e.g., opportunistic share buybacks) and balanced growth strategies. | Recurring theme with reinforcement; while clearly articulated in Q3 2024 and echoed in Q1 2025, the current period reiterates the company’s adaptability under uncertain economic conditions, linking it to strategic capital use. |
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Casualty Trends
Q: What are key loss trend assumptions?
A: Management noted that following the A.M. Best upgrade, they selectively added about $40 million in casualty premiums with loss trends in the low–mid-teens, emphasizing a cautious, quality underwriting approach. -
Combined Ratio
Q: How did the combined ratio change?
A: They reported a higher combined ratio of 111.6%—up notably from 91.5% last year—driven primarily by significant catastrophe losses, which pressured overall underwriting performance. -
Reserves
Q: How were reserve releases handled?
A: Management explained that favorable reserve development occurred when some claims settled for much lower amounts—such as a claim paid at half the industry estimate—and adjustments on Hurricane Ian, thereby reducing overall reserve levels. -
Premium Guidance
Q: Is the $80M premium guidance on track?
A: They confirmed guidance of an extra $80 million from the A.M. Best upgrade, with $40 million already booked in Q1, indicating continued solid growth. -
Expense Ratio
Q: What affected expense ratios this quarter?
A: Increased acquisition expenses—stemming from shifts in business mix with higher profit commissions and greater casualty and pro rata business—were partly offset by declining other underwriting expenses, signifying improved operational efficiency. -
Casualty Business Quality
Q: What differentiates their casualty business?
A: Leadership stressed they pursue quality by targeting clients with strong underwriting and claims management; even though line sizes are modest, the diversified quota share approach ensures balanced risk. -
Ex-Cat Loss Ratios
Q: Any concerns with non-cat losses?
A: They confirmed that aside from catastrophe-driven losses, ex-cat loss ratios remain stable and in line with historical performance, with any exposure—like controlled aviation risks—being well-managed. -
Capital Returns
Q: How are share buybacks and capital managed?
A: Management highlighted robust capital strength, having repurchased $10 million of shares in Q1 while retaining ample buyback capacity to support growth and return capital even amid market uncertainties. -
Two Sigma Returns
Q: What is the status of Two Sigma returns?
A: They reported a 7.9% year-to-date return (as of the end of April), with performance data monitored monthly to help inform investment decisions, reflecting a disciplined approach in managing their trading portfolio. -
Reinstatement Premium
Q: What was the reinstatement premium level?
A: Management disclosed that net reinstatement premiums amounted to $17 million across both reinsurance and insurance segments, contributing to the overall premium income. -
Buyback Window
Q: Why is the buyback window shorter than peers?
A: They clarified that timing challenges—linked to the 10-K release and board meeting schedule set before going public—resulted in a shorter open window for buybacks, a situation expected to improve as reporting accelerates. -
Two Sigma Frequency
Q: How frequently are Two Sigma returns tracked?
A: Returns from the Two Sigma Hamilton Fund are reviewed on a monthly basis, ensuring timely insights into investment performance and market conditions.
Research analysts covering Hamilton Insurance Group.