Huntington Ingalls Industries - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the third quarter 2023 HII Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, please press Star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind and would like to revoke your question, please press Star followed by two. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you need further assistance at any time, please press Star followed by zero to reach an operator. I'd now like to hand the call over to Christie Thomas, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Thomas, you may begin.

Christie Thomas (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to the HII third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call are Chris Kastner, our President and CEO, and Tom Stiehle, Executive Vice President and CFO. As a reminder, statements made today that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future events or our future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause our actual results to be materially different from future results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Please see our SEC filings for important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from expected results. Also, in their remarks today, Chris and Tom will refer to certain non-GAAP measures.

For reconciliations of these metrics to the comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on our website's Investor Relations page at ir.hii.com. With that, I would like to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Chris Kastner. Chris?

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Thanks, Christie, and good morning, everyone. Today, we released quarterly results that demonstrate continued top-line growth across all three of our divisions, steady operational performance, and strong free cash flow generation. Our focus on the fundamentals of the business is evidenced through our strong 5.3% year-to-date revenue growth, our outstanding 2.4 book-to-bill in the quarter at Mission Technologies, and continued shipbuilding milestone achievements. Given our year-to-date results, we are pleased to increase our 2023 revenue and free cash flow guidance, and Tom will provide more information on these increases during his remarks. Our talented workforce remains focused on executing our strategy, supporting our customers' top national defense priorities by delivering quality platforms, technologies, and solutions, and in parallel, winning new business leading to growth opportunities.

Before I get into the results, I would like to thank our HII employees at all three divisions for their dedication, innovation, and customer focus. Let's turn to our results on page three of the presentation. Top-line growth increased 7.2% from the third quarter of 2022, resulting in a record third quarter revenue of $2.8 billion. Diluted earnings per share was $3.70 for the quarter, up from $3.44 in the third quarter of 2022. New contract awards during the quarter were $5.4 billion, which resulted in backlog of approximately $49 billion at the end of the quarter, of which $27 billion is currently funded. Shifting to an update on our shipbuilding milestones, in the third quarter at Ingalls, we launched amphibious assault ship LHA-8, Bougainville, and laid the keel for LHA-9, Fallujah.

Also, we successfully completed acceptance trials for NSC-10, Calhoun, and delivered her last month. In addition, we successfully launched and christened the Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, DDG-128, Ted Stevens. Finally, LPD-29, Richard M. McCool Jr., is expected to complete acceptance trials and deliver in the fourth quarter of this year. Ingalls contract awards this quarter included a $155 million contract for the modernization of USS Zumwalt, DDG-1000, and a significant award of seven of ten Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the FY 2023 DDG multi-year procurement competition. At Newport News, we continued to make progress on the Virginia-class attack submarines as we laid the keel of Oklahoma, SSN-802, and we reached pressure hull complete on Arkansas, SSN-800. We expect to float off SSN-798, Massachusetts, and deliver SSN-796, New Jersey, before the end of the year.

We also continue to make progress on nuclear-powered aircraft carrier construction. CVN-79 Kennedy is focused on compartment completion and the test program, having turned over more than 70% of the ship compartments to the Navy and lighting off combat systems for integrated testing. CVN-80 Enterprise is progressing well and is approximately 25% complete. The cost for the combined buy of CVN-80 and 81 has benefited from the bundling and early procurement of the majority of the material. So much so that over 70% of the material for CVN-81 has already been placed on order, generating significant savings over the traditional approach to ordering. However, due to major component delays from the supply chain, driven primarily from COVID and the labor and supply chain effects subsequent to COVID, delivery of CVN-80 is forecasted to be approximately 12 months late....

To mitigate the delay, HII has worked with the Navy to employ innovative build techniques, which minimize the impact of CVN-81. At Mission Technologies, we saw the third straight quarter of record revenue with sales of $685 million, 15% over the third quarter of 2022. In addition to strong sales growth, Mission Technologies also won several major strategic competitions in the quarter and now has posted over $5 billion in potential total contract value bookings year-to-date. These awards resulted in a third quarter backlog book-to-bill of 2.4 and a year-to-date backlog book-to-bill of 1.2.

Significant wins in the quarter included the $1.4 billion Joint Network Engineering and Emerging Operations task order, the $347 million contract for the Navy's Lionfish SUUV program, and $244 million task order to integrate Minotaur software products into maritime platforms for the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. Shifting to activities in Washington, the federal government began the new fiscal year under a continuing resolution, which funds government operations through November 17. While we applaud the Congress for including an anomaly in the CR that will allow DoD to deviate from typical restrictions and obligate funding to begin construction of the second Columbia-class nuclear submarine, we look forward to Congress proceeding as expeditiously as possible on appropriations bills.

We also look forward to Congress completing their work on the fiscal year 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, with the respective bills of the House and the Senate reflecting strong support for shipbuilding and other national security priorities. Final outcomes will depend on eventual respective conference negotiations between the Appropriations and Authorization Committees. We are encouraged by the support of our programs thus far in the four committees of jurisdiction during the fiscal year 2024 budget cycle. Now, turning to labor, we have hired nearly 5,400 craft personnel year-to-date through the third quarter, which puts us 8% ahead of our full-year plan of approximately 5,000. We have work to do to improve our retention rate, and the shipbuilding teams are laser-focused on addressing this challenge. Retention and attendance, and the acceleration of workforce development will remain consistent focus areas for us going forward.

In summary, this was a very strong quarter, demonstrating continued focus and progress on our strategy of executing against our backlog and driving growth in Mission Technologies. We remain committed to continuing to create value for all of our stakeholders, our employees, customers, shareholders, suppliers, and communities. Now, I will turn the call over to Tom for some remarks on our financial results. Tom?

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Chris, and good morning. Today, I'll briefly review our third quarter results. For more detail on the segment results, please refer to the earnings release issued this morning and post it to our website. Beginning with our consolidated results on slide six of the presentation, our third quarter revenues of $2.8 billion increased approximately 7.2% compared to the same period last year, and represents a record third quarter result for HII. This increase in revenue was largely attributable to growth at Mission Technologies and Ingalls Shipbuilding. Operating income for the quarter of $172 million increased by $41 million, or 31% from the third quarter of 2022, an operating margin of 6.1% compared to operating margin of 5% in the same period last year.

The increase in operating income was primarily due to higher segment operating income, a more favorable operating FAS/CAS adjustment, and more favorable non-current state income taxes compared to the prior year period. Net earnings in the quarter were $148 million, compared to $138 million in the third quarter of 2022. Diluted earnings per share in the quarter was $3.70, compared to $3.44 in the third quarter of the previous year. Moving on to Slide seven, Ingalls revenues of $711 million in the quarter increased to $88 million, or about 14% from the same period last year, driven primarily by higher volumes on amphibious assault ships and surface combatants.

Ingalls' operating income of $73 million, an operating margin of 10.3% in the quarter, increased from last year, primarily due to higher volumes I mentioned earlier, and favorable changes in contract estimates compared to the prior year. At Newport News, revenues of $1.45 billion increased $8 million or 1% from the same period last year. Newport News operating income for Q3 was $90 million, a decrease of $12 million compared to the third quarter of last year. Operating income was lower due to contract incentives earned in the Columbia-class program in the third quarter of 2022, partially offset by improved performance on the Virginia-class submarine program. Shipbuilding operating margin in the third quarter was 7.5%, slightly ahead of the outlook we had provided for the quarter.

Our shipbuilding operating margin outlook for the full year remains unchanged, and as we have previously noted, our expected shipbuilding milestones for 2023 are concentrated largely in the fourth quarter. At Mission Technologies, revenues of $685 million increased $90 million or about 15% compared to the third quarter of 2022, primarily due to higher volumes in Mission Based Solutions driven by our C5ISR and Cyber, Electronic Warfare, and Space programs. Mission Technologies' operating income of $24 million compares to operating income of $14 million in the third quarter of last year. The increase in operating income was driven primarily by the higher volumes I just mentioned, as well as improved performance in unmanned systems. Current results for Mission Technologies included approximately $27 million of amortization of purchased intangible assets. Mission Technologies EBITDA margin in the third quarter was 8.2%.

Turning to Slide eight, cash from operations was $335 million in the quarter. Net capital expenditures were $42 million, or 1.5% of revenues. Free cash flow in the quarter was $293 million. This compares to cash used in operations of $19 million, net capital expenditures of $77 million, or 2.9% of revenues, and free cash flow of -$96 million in the third quarter of 2022. Cash contributions to our pension and other post-retirement benefit plans were $11 million in the quarter. During the third quarter, we paid dividends of $1.24 per share, or $50 million in aggregate. We also repurchased approximately 100,000 shares during the quarter, at an aggregate cost of approximately $21 million.

Year to date, through the third quarter, we have repurchased approximately 176,000 shares at an aggregate cost of approximately $37 million. Moving on to Slide nine, I'd like to provide an update on our pension sensitivities for 2024. Our forecast in early 2023 assumed asset returns of 8% and a discount rate of approximately 5.5%. Through the end of the third quarter, discount rates have increased approximately 60 basis points, and our year-to-date asset return is roughly 4.6%. Pension-related numbers are subject to year-end performance and measurement criteria. We will provide a multi-year update of pension estimates on our fourth quarter earnings call in February. Also, I would like to highlight that our pension-funded status remains strong and has improved year to date.

Additionally, I will note that the cash flow impacts related to pension changes remain minimal. Moving on to Slide 10, given the strong third quarter free cash flow, we are increasing our 2023 free cash flow guidance to approximately $500 million, an increase of $75 million from the prior midpoint guidance. This increase is primarily driven by the conclusion of the negotiations regarding the repayment of COVID advances, as well as positive cash flow contributions from Mission Technologies. We continue to expect approximately $1.2 billion of free cash flow over the two-year period of 2023 and 2024. I'll highlight that we continue to expect to distribute substantially all free cash flow to shareholders through 2024 after planned debt repayment, which is currently on track.

Turning to Slide 11, in addition to increasing our fiscal year 2023 free cash flow guidance, we are increasing our revenue guidance for both shipbuilding and Mission Technologies. Given the strong third quarter revenues across all three divisions, we are increasing the midpoint of shipbuilding revenue guidance by revising a range from $8.4 billion-$8.6 billion, to a range of $8.5 billion-$8.6 billion, and increasing our Mission Technologies revenue guidance from approximately $2.5 billion to approximately $2.55 billion. This is an increase to the midpoint of shipbuilding revenue guidance of $50 million and an increase to Mission Technologies revenue guidance of $50 million. Additionally, we are reaffirming our shipbuilding and Mission Technologies margin guidance. To summarize, we delivered strong revenue growth in the third quarter and finished slightly ahead of our margin expectations for the quarter.

We also delivered strong free cash flow. Mission Technologies had an impressive third quarter backlog book-to-bill of 2.4, and year to date has the potential total contract value awards of over $5 billion, in addition to a robust opportunity pipeline of $70 billion. Looking to the end of the year, we are pleased to raise 2023 revenue and free cash flow guidance and reaffirm margin guidance as we continue to execute the milestones and commitments that we've laid out. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Christie to manage Q&A.

Christie Thomas (VP of Investor Relations)

Thanks, Tom. As a reminder to everyone on the call, please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow-up so we can get as many people through the queue as possible. Operator, I will turn it over to you to manage the Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Christie. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our first question today comes from Scott Deuschle from Deutsche Bank. Scott, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Scott Deuschle (Director of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)

Hey, good morning.

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

Morning, Scott.

Scott Deuschle (Director of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)

Chris, what's the financial impact from the delay on CVN-80? I think you said it was 12 months. And then was that delay known when you closed the books and accrued the EACs for the quarter?

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, approximately 12 months, and we've been holding that risk for a while on our financials, so there's no financial impact related to it. You know, that impact is driven by some issues in the supply chain and some major equipment in the bottom of the ship, but no financial impact related to it, and the teams are doing their best to mitigate the impact. You know, the good news on that is we do have some EPA protection, which mitigates it a bit, but the team's focused on it, and they're gonna do their best to mitigate the impact going forward.

Scott Deuschle (Director of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)

Okay, that's great. And then I think one thing that's been maybe a bit confusing to investors is trying to understand the impacts to Huntington or the read-through when your partner books negative EACs on Block V Virginia-class boats due to supplier costs. Can you just maybe, like, level set us on how we should interpret that? And I realize your booking rates are probably lower than theirs, so it doesn't necessarily mean you need to book negative EACs, but does it have any impact to your longer-term margin trajectory on Block V? Thanks.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, so we evaluate our EACs on all our programs on a quarterly basis and take the appropriate adjustments up or down as we see fit. You know, I continue to believe that there's opportunity in Block V. As we transition out of the Block VI boats and get into Block V, we should have some upside. But I wouldn't comment on our partners' accounting, but I'm very comfortable with where we're at.

Scott Deuschle (Director of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Scott. Our next question today comes from David Strauss from Barclays. David, your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Josh Korn (Assistant VP in Equity Research)

Hi, good morning. This is actually Josh Korn, on for David.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Hi.

Josh Korn (Assistant VP in Equity Research)

I wanted to ask about the outlook for shipbuilding margins in 2024, if you see any improvement and what some of the drivers might be. Thanks.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, so I fully expect, you know, incremental improvement in shipbuilding margins as we move forward. It's all about transitioning out of the Block Four boats in Newport News into Block Five and continuing to improve in Newport News. So, the story hasn't really changed, quarter to quarter. Newport News continues to stabilize. Labor is good, hiring is good. We still need to work on retention, but I'm comfortable with where we're at.

Josh Korn (Assistant VP in Equity Research)

Okay. Thank you.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Doug Harned from Bernstein. Doug, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Doug Harned (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Good morning, thank you.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Good morning.

Doug Harned (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

You know, on your margins at Newport News, you know, you talked about you met your goal of 7.4% for the quarter, but when you look at the margin improvement you're going to have to have in Q4, can you walk through what has to happen there? Because you're going to have to get a lot of upside in margins in Q4 to meet your guidance, it looks like.

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

Hey, Doug. Yeah, it's Tom here. So yeah, we have been consistent throughout the year here, saying that the shipbuilding milestones were in the back half of the year, specifically for Newport News. They have two large milestones there, the 796 delivery and then the 798 float off. So, that's going to be a driver on the back half of the program, and there's a lot of focus down there. Chris just talked about the hiring and the attrition that we're doing, the extra training, the operating system that we've added down there. I think as you know, COVID becomes further and further in the rearview mirror against the portfolio of contracts that we have right there, you know, opportunity sets are abound as we finish off the ships that were impacted and start new ships.

Although we start them off at a lower level, that incremental margin improvement story exists, especially at Newport News. But specifically just on Q4, I think for the last 13 weeks of the year, it's continued performance on the ships that we have here and kind of hitting the milestones I just described, ensuring that we're getting progress and watching the heads we have on the programs and keeping the rework in check.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, to support, to support that, Doug, it's absolutely 796 needs to get delivered. That, that boat is essentially complete. We just need to get through trials. 798 needs to float off, and then 29 needs to continue to complete their test program and get through their trial efforts. So it's gonna be a race to completion on 29, but we're fine with where we are now.

Doug Harned (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

And then when you look at the submarines and Columbia-class becoming more and more important, I mean, how... What is the, can you describe what the mix is right now in your work between Columbia-class versus Virginia-class, and how you think of Columbia-class as it grows affecting margins over time?

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Well, Columbia-class, as you know, we only build 22%-23% of that boat, the bows and the sterns. It'll grow in importance at Newport News and provide a good source of growth. But how we perform on the VCS program is going to really dictate how Newport News does in the long run. The Columbia-class is important work, it's high priority work, but it really won't dictate margin performance going forward at Newport News.

Doug Harned (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay, very good. Thank you.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Doug. Our next question comes from Ron Epstein from Bank of America. Ron, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jordan Linus (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. This is Jordan Linus on for Ron. Would you guys-

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Oh, good morning.

Jordan Linus (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning. Would you guys give more color on the retention rates of where they are now? And also, too, for all the new hires that you have, when do you expect them to reach optimal efficiency?

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, so we don't, we don't provide our retention rates. We're meeting, or actually beating our hiring forecast for the year, so we feel good with where we are there. The second—what was your second question again? I'm sorry.

Jordan Linus (Equity Research Analyst)

How long for the new hires, to-

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Oh, yeah

Jordan Linus (Equity Research Analyst)

Be fully working? Yeah.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, so we talk about three to five years. You know, the interesting stuff, some of the interesting things we have going on in Newport News is digital shipbuilding, which we think will increase the time to talent. But we generally think three to five years, and we can accelerate that with some of our digital tools.

Jordan Linus (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Okay. And then one other question, too: For the AUKUS funding, $3 billion, and then also the other supplemental from the White House for $3 billion, are you guys seeing that flow through, or do you expect it, and can you size it?

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yes, we absolutely expect it eventually to flow through. AUKUS is very important to us. We actually see that as an opening of markets, right? It's an opening of markets in the U.K. and Australia. We think in the short term here, it's really not material financially, but funds could flow next year in important areas like workforce development, supply chain assessment, infrastructure support. We're following the Navy's lead on this. They absolutely are being very methodical in how they think through this, but we're standing ready to support them and look forward to.

But it's really from a top-line standpoint, it's more of a medium to long-term opportunity, but we need to make sure that we're taking the steps now to ensure that we're prepared for it.

Jordan Linus (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you guys so much.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from George Shapiro from Shapiro Research. George, your line is open. Please go ahead.

George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Good morning.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Morning.

George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Chris, I guess you increased your free cash flow for this year, but reduced it for next year. So what was the timing that really caused that to occur? Because obviously, you left the two-year number the same.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, it was just it, it's just timing, George. As you know, from time to time, where you get receipts flowing in sooner than you expect. The team's working very hard on working capital. It's a focus for us. But I'll let Tom go into specifics.

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, so specifically here on 2023, what we've seen is some good performance on Mission Technologies, both top line and the cash collections, and how they're performing in the MBS. So, that is positive. Also, just kind of hitting on milestones right now is adds to the free cash flow at the end of the year, as well as we've come through the COVID repay with our customer set. We've worked ourselves through a strategy and an algorithm, how that's how that applies to the contract, and that was a couple of dollars there, too. So that's the confidence in the lift that we went from the midpoint of $425-$500 for this year.

As I've been pretty consistent on our five-year target, you know, the guiding light from mid-year this year through the end of next year is $1.2 billion. So, we brought this year up to $75. A piece of that, as I said, all is the retentions with the COVID, so that was just timing anyway, between 2023 and 2024. If you notice between five and now $700 next year, down from $780, it's still the $1.2 billion. I think there's tailwinds against that, as we finish out this year and opportunity sets kind of going forward, but we didn't want to get ahead of ourselves, so we maintained the $1.2 billion target here. Okay?

George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. And just, and just to follow up, on the margins in the fourth quarter that, Doug, had asked about. I mean, specifically, it looks like the fourth quarter's got to be about 9.2% just to get to the low end of your guide. Now, given the, milestones in the fourth quarter, I, I would assume the biggest jump in the fourth quarter from normal is gonna be at Newport News?

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

I think the three remaining milestones are all important for us to kind of get into the range, and we're watching them. As Chris said, there's a pathway on each of the three here. 796 is ready to go, I think we're just waiting for the transfer of that ship. 798 should float off before the end of the year. And LPD-29, as we've been saying since the beginning of the year, that it's just a race to align up the final tasks, the ship to sea, in-service, approving the ship, and then we see to that. So whether that happens in December or the end of December or at the beginning of next year, those three are pretty significant milestones as they play out, as we go forward here.

I think opportunity sets on there may be a little EPA adjustment, as we, we've seen rates high, and then just the consistent performance we've seen. We've seen some settling of performance over the last couple of quarters, so I think that will play out. 2023 is opposite on 2022, where we started off really hot and heavy in the first couple of quarters. But this isn't a surprise for us that Q4 was going to be a big quarter for us, and I think we're in the lane right now to kind of... We're reaffirming our guidance there on profitability for shipbuilding between seven and eight up.

George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Thank you very much.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yes, sir. Thanks, George.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, George. Our next question today comes from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan. Seth, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Seth Seifman (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks very much. Good morning. So I saw that-

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Good morning.

Seth Seifman (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Morning. So you guys increased the revenue guide for shipbuilding, and I wonder if you could talk maybe a little bit more over time about the opportunity for growth at Ingalls, you know, especially with the latest multi-years on the DDG, how that growth profile kind of looks now, maybe versus several months ago, and, you know, to the extent to which that can maybe be helpful for the margin mix?

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, this is Chris. I'll start, and then Tom can complete if we need to here. But the award of the DDG-51 really solidifies Ingalls' base for the next few years and creates a very stable business down at Ingalls. And we don't give growth rates by division, but what we're seeing is a bit of an inflection point from a top-line standpoint, both in shipbuilding and Mission Technologies. I don't want to get in front of it. We'll wait till the end of the year before we can communicate that, but well, I think we're in a pretty good place. The growth has shown up in shipbuilding.

It's driven by the supply chain and stabilization of labor, and then Mission Technologies is just winning stuff. You know, they're converting their recompetes, converting new business, all in markets that we think are very strong. So yeah, it's a bit of an inflection point. We're gonna talk a lot more about that after we get to the end of the year, because we want to close the year strong. But we feel pretty positive about growth going forward.

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

I'd hop on the back of that, too. Yeah, Seth, I'll hop on the back of that, too. I'm pretty happy with what I'm seeing down at Ingalls there. You know, NSC, where we delivered NSC-10, so there's one more ship set there. We've talked about how that portfolio could sustain itself and still get 3%, 3%+, potentially, if things break their way on just the three major programs down there. We've seen that with the DDGs, the seven DDGs on contract, and now, most recently, in the August timeframe, they received the seven more there. So they know what they're building for the next decade. They can line that up from a planning, labor, resource, and material perspective, and that's gonna really help them drive consistent performance in production down there.

Also, on top of that, we've seen a maturation of the 1000 program, the DDG-1000 program. So we put the first of, there's two on contract. We put the first modernization on contract earlier this year. All three of those ships will be down there over the next two to three years, going through an 11-12-month modernization process, and that's good base for them to employ the workforce there, too. So I see you know a good healthiness, even with the NSC program sunsetting for Ingalls to hit the 3% guide that we've had through 2023, yeah, and going forward. Yep.

Seth Seifman (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Excellent. Okay. Thanks very much. I'll stick to one this morning.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Mm-hmm.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad to register. Our next question today comes from Miles Walton from Wolfe Research. Miles, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Good morning. This is actually Emily on for Miles. Hi, everyone.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Hi, Emily.

Speaker 11

Another shipbuilding margin question. So thanks for some additional color on 2024, but I was wondering, are you all able to do any leveling of the quarterly cadence for 2024 at this point? Is there a skew towards either half of the year or quarter to quarter? Any color on that would be great.

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

Yes, I think it's just a little premature. Obviously, we have some tentative plans right now. We work ourselves through the final planning process for 2024 and on, on at the end of this year, and we bring that to, you know, our, our internal management and board here. Once we get that kind of solidified, I'd really like to take a look, see at the actuals at the end of the year. We've talked about those milestones, which we anticipate to hit in Q4, but they just could trickle into Q1. If that does, it would change the shape, so I wouldn't want to get ahead of myself. But, we still maintain the same thesis here of expectation of incremental margin improvement.

We think, I mentioned earlier with COVID getting further behind us and us putting the energy into hiring, extra training, retention, the material seems like it's stabilized. It's not where we want it to be, but we have to get that improved. The maturation of the workforce, anticipation of less rework, the rollover of the portfolio, of the existing ships that have increased EACs and schedule extensions. There's a lot of positiveness kind of going into the follow-on years here, and I would anticipate that to grow for shipbuilding. On the mission technology side, we've talked about still scaling that business.

We've, we've seen some fantastic growth that's going on on the top line, and we have some work to go do in how we get our, our, our margin higher there, a little bit more on the fixed price instead of just, we have about 85% in cost type. Additional technology, which should be able to have us employ, you know, IP technology, more a little bit more products and services. That should be able to put a premium on what we, what we bid and, and what we achieve there. So, I would expect, you know, improvement in the margin, and at the Q4 call in February, we'll give you the shape of next year.

Speaker 11

Sounds good, Tom. One quick follow-up. So on the maintenance side, you know, that's something that the Navy has sort of been pounding the drums about for a long time. Have you all been getting any more visibility from the Navy customer about timelines for maintenance? You know, we know pretty well about the carrier cycle, but anything on the submarine side, I know those sometimes pop up, and it's a good surprise, but it's hard to plan specifically, and then also on the surface side.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah. So, Emily, it's Chris. We don't expect real surprise pop-ups from a maintenance standpoint. We expect fairly consistent revenue from maintenance at Newport News. At Ingalls, we'll be opportunistic if we see stuff that we could potentially participate in, but right now it's not in the forecast other than the work we're doing on DDG-1000, which is really not maintenance, it's upgrades.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks, Chris.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our last question today comes from Gautam Khanna from TD Cowen. Gautam, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Gautam Khanna (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, guys.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Morning, Gautam.

Tom Stiehle (EVP and CFO)

Morning, Gautam.

Gautam Khanna (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, quick question. On LPD-29, I'm just curious, your confidence level on that getting delivered this quarter, is it a very late in the quarter kind of skew? And just how, if you could give us some framework on what the EAC sensitivity is to that in the fourth quarter.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah. So, Gautam, it'll be a race to the finish on 29. We need to get through the final trials, get in service and get it approved and delivered. There are some sensitivity, obviously, as we come through the final throes on that ship. From an EAC standpoint, and then a lot will depend on how much work remains subsequent to delivery. I don't have a specific range for you, but we, as you know, we tend to risk adjust our opportunities as we flow towards the end of the year, and LPD-29 is right in the middle of that risk profile.

Gautam Khanna (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got you. Okay. So would you argue that the implied shipbuilding range for Q4 bounds that risk? Because it is a pretty wide margin range, obviously, that's implied in shipbuilding.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, I don't wanna, I don't wanna comment on that. There's a lot of variables that go into that, that range, Gautam. LPD-29 is one of those variables.

Gautam Khanna (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And just, you know, wanted to get your sense on, given all the labor challenges that you guys have, you know, faced head on over the last couple of years, what is kind of an appropriate margin increase rate in shipbuilding next year? Like, what would be a good scenario or a realistic scenario? I mean, are we talking like 10, 20 basis points, or are we talking a more significant step up next year in shipbuilding?

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Yeah, so we're not gonna give specifics on improvement in 2024. We'll give that on our year-end call. But I do continue to expect improvement. I just think it's a bit premature. Let's get through the end of the year, see how we close up, close strong, and then we'll give you information on the year-end call.

Gautam Khanna (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

All right. Thank you very much, guys. Appreciate it.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Sure. Thanks, Gautam.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time, so I'd now like to hand the call back to Mr. Kastner for any closing remarks.

Chris Kastner (President and CEO)

Sure. Thanks for joining us on the call. Before we wrap up, I'd like to note that we'll be hosting Investor Day on March 20th in New York. So be on the lookout for more information. Thanks again for your interest in HII and joining us on today's call.

Operator (participant)

That concludes today's conference for everybody. Thank you very much for joining. You may now disconnect your line. Have a great rest of your day!