Hilton Worldwide - Q1 2023
April 26, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Kucaj, Senior Director, Investor Relations. You may begin.
Brian Kucaj (Senior Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's first quarter 2023 earnings call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K. In addition, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.
This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our first quarter results and discuss our expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Thanks, Brian. Good morning, everyone, thanks for joining us today. We're pleased to report that demand for travel remains strong, maintaining the trend that we saw in the back half of last year, which led to both our top and bottom line results finishing the quarter above the high end of our guidance. As we move forward, fundamentals remain strong, and we expect secular tailwinds to continue to support growth. Despite continued macroeconomic uncertainty, we're optimistic that the power of our network effect, our industry-leading RevPAR premiums, and our fee-based capital-light business model will continue to drive strong operating performance, unit growth, and meaningful cash flow, enabling us to return an increasing amount of capital to shareholders. In the first quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 30% year-over-year and 8% compared to 2019.
Rate continued to drive growth up 11% compared to 2019, and system-wide occupancy reached 68%, up from the prior quarter and just two points shy of peak levels. Globally, all segments outperformed expectations, and the lifting of COVID restrictions in China drove significant recovery in demand across Asia Pacific throughout the quarter. As a result, RevPAR in the month of March exceeded 2019 levels across all regions and segments for the first time since the pandemic began. Given our strong results and positive momentum, we're raising both top and bottom line guidance for the full year, which Kevin will cover in more detail in just a few minutes. Turning to the segment details, leisure trends remained strong throughout the quarter, with RevPAR surpassing 2019 by approximately 15% ahead of prior quarter performance.
Strong leisure transient demand continued to drive rates up in the mid-teens above 2019, and occupancy fully recovered back to 2019 levels, driven by the surge in travel in Asia Pacific. Business transient also continued to improve, with RevPAR up 4% from 2019, reflecting the resiliency of business travel, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses, which remained roughly 85% of our segment mix. Recovery in group remains robust, with RevPAR finishing roughly in line with 2019, with steady improvement each month in the quarter and March exceeding 2019 by 5%. Demand for future bookings also remains strong, with full-year group position up 28% year-over-year and 3% versus 2019.
Additionally, new group leads ended in the quarter 13% higher than 2019, an increase of six points compared to prior quarter. Looking at the full year, based on the better than expected Q1 results, the accelerated demand across Asia, and continued positive momentum in group, we now expect full-year system-wide top line growth between 8% and 11% versus 2022, assuming some slowdown in the back half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the U.S. Turning to development. In the first quarter, we opened 64 properties totaling over 9,000 rooms, celebrating several milestones, including the opening of our 500th hotel in China, our 100th addition to the Tapestry Collection, and the opening of the Canopy Toronto Yorkville, the lifestyle brand's debut in Canada.
We also opened two new Embassy Suites resort properties in Virginia Beach and Aruba, with the Aruba addition marking the brand's 10th international property. After recently being ranked the number one hotel franchise in Entrepreneur Magazine's Franchise 500 for a record-breaking 14th year in a row, Hampton by Hilton expanded its global presence to 37 countries with the brand's first property in Ecuador. While we expect to see some impact from the current financing environment, we're encouraged by the progress on the signings and starts front. We signed approximately 25,000 rooms during the quarter, growing our pipeline to a record 428,000 rooms, more than half of which are currently under constructions.
Signings in the quarter outpaced prior year across all regions, and conversion signings in the quarter were 24% higher than prior year, benefiting in part from the rollout of our newly launched brand, Spark by Hilton. The initial interest in Spark has been tremendous. We currently have more than 300 deals in various stages of negotiation, and our teams are working hard to deliver this exciting new premium economy conversion brand with hotels opening later this year. Hilton Garden Inn also continues to be an engine of global growth, with 14 new signings across six countries in the quarter and over 60 working deals in 22 countries. Additionally, in April, we announced the signing of the Waldorf Astoria Jaipur, marking the debut of the brand in India and further demonstrating our commitment to expanding our world-class luxury brands across the globe.
Construction starts for the quarter totaled over 19,000 rooms, up nearly 20% from prior year, and starts in the U.S. were up more than 50% year-over-year. Our global under construction pipeline is up 8% compared to March 2022. Per STR, we continue to lead the industry in total rooms under construction. Taking all this into account, we still expect to deliver net unit growth within our guidance range this year and remain confident in our ability to return to 6%-7% net unit growth over the next couple of years. On the loyalty front, Hilton Honors grew to more than 158 million members, a 19% increase year-over-year, and remains the fastest growing hotel loyalty program.
In the quarter, Hilton Honors members accounted for 62% of occupancy, an increase of 200 basis points year-over-year. Additionally, in an effort to further provide our loyal guests with an elevated wellness experience, in April, we announced the international expansion of our partnership with Peloton, bringing Peloton bikes to properties across the U.K., Germany, Canada and Puerto Rico, building on our existing partnership to make Peloton bikes available in all U.S. hotels. As one of the world's largest hospitality companies, we recognize Hilton has a responsibility to protect the planet and to support the communities we serve to ensure our hotel destinations remain vibrant and resilient for generations of travelers to come.
In early April, we published our 2022 Travel with Purpose report, outlining our latest progress towards our 2030 environmental, social, and governance goals, including our efforts to reduce our environmental impact while creating engines of opportunity within our communities and preserving the beautiful destinations where we live, work and travel. We remain committed to driving responsible travel and tourism globally, while furthering positive environmental and social impact and sound governance across our operations and our communities. All of our success would not be possible without the dedicated efforts of our talented team, and we continue to be recognized for our remarkable workplace culture. Recently, Great Place to Work and Fortune ranked Hilton the number two workplace in the U.S., our eighth consecutive year on the list, and once again, the top-ranked hospitality company, an accomplishment I am truly proud of.
Overall, despite macroeconomic uncertainty, we believe that our world-class brands, dedicated team members and resilient business model have us incredibly well positioned for the future. Now I'll turn the call over to Kevin for a few more details on the quarter and our expectations for the full year.
Kevin Jacobs (CFO and President of Global Development)
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 30% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency neutral basis, and increased 8% compared to 2019. Growth was driven by strong demand in APAC, as well as continued strength in leisure and steady recovery in business transient and group travel. Adjusted EBITDA was $641 million in the first quarter, up 43% year-over-year, and exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Our performance was driven by better than expected fee growth across all regions, as well as strong performance in Europe and Japan benefiting our ownership portfolio. Management and franchise fees grew 30% year-over-year, driven by continued RevPAR improvement. Continued good cost discipline further benefited results.
For the quarter, diluted earnings per share, adjusted for special items was $1.24, increasing 75% year-over-year and exceeding the high end of our guidance range. Turning to our regional performance. First quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 21% year-over-year, with performance continuing to be led by strong leisure demand. Both business transient and group RevPAR finished above 2019 peak levels for the second consecutive quarter, driven by strong rate growth. In the Americas outside the U.S., first quarter RevPAR increased 56% year-over-year and 35% versus 2019. Performance was driven by strong leisure demand at resort properties, where RevPAR was up over 60% compared to peak levels. In Europe, RevPAR grew 68% year-over-year and was 13% higher than 2019.
Performance benefited from continued strength in leisure demand and recovery in international inbound travel, particularly from the U.S.
In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 32% year-over-year and 42% versus 2019, led by strong rate growth and group demand. In the Asia Pacific region, first quarter RevPAR was up 91% year-over-year and down only 4% versus 2019. RevPAR in China was down 5% compared to 2019, 32 points better than prior quarter as demand recovery accelerated due to the lifting of COVID restrictions. The rest of the Asia Pacific region also saw significant improvement, with RevPAR excluding China up 19% versus 2019, representing an 11 point improvement versus prior quarter. Turning to development, our pipeline grew year-over-year and sequentially, and now totals 428,000 rooms, with nearly 60% located outside the U.S. and over half under construction.
Looking at the full year, despite the near-term macroeconomic uncertainty, we still expect net unit growth between 5% and 5.5%. Moving to guidance. For the second quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be between 10% and 12% year-over-year. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $770 million and $790 million. Diluted EPS adjusted for special items to be between $1.54 and $1.59. For full year 2023, we expect RevPAR growth of between 8% and 11%. We forecast adjusted EBITDA of between $2.875 billion and $2.95 billion. We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $5.68 and $5.88. Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate future share repurchases. Moving on to capital return.
We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the first quarter for a total of $41 million. Our board also authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share in the second quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned more than $600 million to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. We expect to return between $1.8 billion and $2.2 billion for the full year. Further details on our first quarter results can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning. This completes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. We would like to speak with as many of you as possible, so we ask that you limit yourself to one question, please. Chad, can we have our first question?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. The first question is from Carlo Santarelli from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Carlo Santarelli (Managing Director, Gaming and Lodging Equity Research)
Good morning, Chris. Good morning, Kevin.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Good morning.
Carlo Santarelli (Managing Director, Gaming and Lodging Equity Research)
Chris, just in terms of the way you guys are thinking about the year, your guidance, obviously from a RevPAR perspective, up about 350 basis points at the midpoint. First quarter, you know, obviously contributes some of that lift. You guys spoke to a tougher macroeconomic situation in the second half of the year on your fourth quarter call. How much has your outlook on the second half changed, as obviously, you know, you get some contribution from the first quarter, you have a lot of visibility in the second quarter? Just trying to understand within the context of that guidance, if you've had any kind of change or pushing out of when you guys believe or when you're interpreting the macroeconomic conditions will toughen.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah, a really good question. Obviously, you know, I think I used the macroeconomic uncertainty two or three times for a reason, because there is an uncertainty environment. I mean, what we're seeing today is, as you heard in, you know, what you saw in our numbers and in the prepared comments is very good strength across all our segments. Leisure continues to be super strong. Business transient in the quarter, both demand and pricing, you know, has returned to prior peak levels. Group is motoring on its way. It's just, you know, longer in gestation to get there. It's, you know, based on the trends, is gonna get there, you know, in the second half of the year, I think, but with a great deal of certainty.
You know, we are not... You didn't really ask it this way, but I think part of it is we're not seeing any cracks in terms of demand patterns. There is a lot of momentum. I sit at this very table every Monday morning with my entire executive committee representing every region of the world, and the first question I ask, "Are you seeing any cracks? Any issues with demand broadly? Any issues regionally? Any issues from a segment point of view?" The truth is, we're just not seeing it. Having said that, we know here in the U.S. and in many other places around the world, there's an inflation issue. It's, you know, it's being... You know, it is being managed. It's becoming, you know.
It is in the process of normalizing, particularly here in the U.S., but it's not there. The Fed, you know, has said it's going to deal with it. I take them at their word. I think ultimately that means you're gonna continue to have a slowing of the broader economic environment that at some point has to have some impact on us. It hasn't yet for a bunch of reasons I suggested. One, I still think we have a lot of pent-up demand. Two, we are still benefiting from a secular shift in spending patterns broadly. While people may have a little less to spend, they're spending more of it on experiences and a lot less of it on things. You see that throughout the economy.
International travel is, you know, finally with China opening up, while it's not, you know, back anywhere near where it has been, international travel is really on a steep upslope. All of those things, you know, are keeping, you know, the momentum and demand in the business. Recognizing also, by the way, that capacity additions are at historical lows and are probably going to stay there for a while. When I said, you know, very quickly in my comments, fundamentals remain strong, I mean, fundamentals are supply and demand. Demand is good for the reasons I suggested. Supply in the industry is anemic. Thankfully, we get a lot more than our fair share of the supply, so that's good for us. The basic fundamentals in the business are good. Having said all of that, we do expect things will slow down.
You asked a question, which I'm actually gonna answer, which is, do I feel any differently than I did sitting here a quarter ago? I would say yes. I would say, number one, the economy appears to be more resilient. Inflation is being tamed. I have a higher degree of confidence at this point. I'm not the right person to ask, but, well, I'll tell you what I think. I have a higher degree of confidence that the Fed will land the plane reasonably well, that we're not gonna have, you know, a deep, dark kind of recession. We're gonna have a slowdown, maybe a recession. It feels a lot more like it will be reasonably modest at this point. I feel better about that. I definitely feel like things have been pushed out a little bit. One, just time has gone by.
We have now a quarter under our belt. We're deep into understanding half of the year. We're not done. There's a bunch of the second quarter left, but we have pretty good sight lines at this point into Q2. It feels like the momentum's continuing. You get a half a year sort of under your belt, it gives you more confidence. Yeah, I feel better about thus why we increased our guidance on the top line and bottom line because I feel like there's enough momentum in our business. The economy broadly is pretty resilient. There's more confidence in the Fed being able to sort of do this without wreaking too much havoc.
I'd say net, yeah, I feel a bit better. Having said that, we did, and I said it intentionally in the prepared comments, we do assume, because we are sentient and, you know, we know what's going on, that at some point you will see some slowing. I think realistically, it's more late third quarter and into the fourth quarter. I honestly think there's a chance it kicks, you know, it kicks into next year given the broader momentum and the strength of the consumer broadly. I don't know. What we've tried to do in our guidance is build in an expectation that these efforts of the Fed here and in other parts of the world will eventually work, and that we're gonna see some at least modest slowdown.
That's sort of what. You know, we feel better than we did. We still think there's a lot of uncertainty, and we've tried to factor for that in our guidance in the second half of the year.
Carlo Santarelli (Managing Director, Gaming and Lodging Equity Research)
Great. Thank you, Chris. If I could, just one quick follow-up. In the period, obviously, I think managed franchise RevPAR was 29%. Unit growth on the franchise side was four. The fees, franchise fees grew about 23%. I'm assuming that that's a comp issue with some ancillary non-RevPAR fees in the 1Q 2022.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Correct.
Carlo Santarelli (Managing Director, Gaming and Lodging Equity Research)
Okay.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah. I mean, the way to think about those is those are normalizing in growth rates above algorithm growth. Above, you know, you know, typical growth you would assume sort of on a same store basis. You know, we're still, particularly because of Omicron on the fee side, we have a supercharged, fee growth rate in the first quarter. I think the way to think about, you know, over the intermediate, even longer term, is we think all of those ancillary license fees and otherwise are gonna grow, they're gonna grow better than our typical algorithm growth. Yeah, you have some year-over-year normalization going on in Omicron impact.
Carlo Santarelli (Managing Director, Gaming and Lodging Equity Research)
Thank you, guys.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
That's right. A little bit of mix as well. The franchise business is a little more concentrated in the U.S., where RevPAR growth has not been as robust as outside the U.S.
Carlo Santarelli (Managing Director, Gaming and Lodging Equity Research)
Yep, makes sense. Thank you both.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Joe Greff from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Joe Greff (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, guys.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Morning, Joe.
Kevin Jacobs (CFO and President of Global Development)
Morning, Joe.
Joe Greff (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Chris, I'd love to hear your views on and your understanding of what developers are feeling right now, just given changes in the credit markets and in the banking environment, particularly with maybe limited service developers that are more reliant on regional bank for financing. Are they requesting more capital help from you guys? Do you think maybe they're pulling forward some deals, maybe in an effort to circumvent, you know, future tightening? Can you talk about, you know, what your expectation is for maybe pipeline growth for the balance of the year? Then I have a follow-up. Thank you.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah. I mean, it's early, so we've obviously been talking to a lot of our ownership community as the banking issues have sort of taken hold. I would say there's a broad range that, you know, anecdotally go from we haven't seen much impact, we're still getting financed, as you can see in our numbers in starts in the U.S. being so far up. Part of that was before, you know, the banking, you know, the regional, local banking set of issues, but part of it was after. You know, they're still getting the best owners with the best relationships are getting their deals done and, you know, our market share in a tougher environment goes up. Proportionately relative to others in the industry, we typically do, we do even better.
We also have folks that are saying very hard to find the money, and some in the middle that are saying, like they're talking to their banks and their banks are saying, "Hey, we're gonna be there for you. Just give me like 90 days. Let me see, let me see how this all plays out." I think it's early to know. I think, you know, being, you know, being objective about it, which I always am trying to be, you know, I think, you know, the Fed seems to be managing through this reasonably well. You know, there's some ongoing things today, you know, or this week going on. I think the Fed, you know, I think is pretty committed to making sure there isn't sort of a run on, you know, on regional banks broadly.
I think we're in reasonably good shape that way. I think that the net result is, for a period of time, there'll be less credit available, okay? I still think we'll get more than our fair share of it 'cause our brands are better performing, and we'll see our share go up as we historically do when times get tougher for financing, et cetera. It's hard to believe that in the short to intermediate term, there's not gonna be some impact. It hasn't shown up. It didn't show up in the 1st quarter. We haven't seen it yet. I think in terms of pipeline, people, you know, I think our expectation at this point for the year is the pipeline's gonna keep growing. You know, the bigger question's gonna be, you know, the conversion to under construction.
In the first quarter, it was very, very good, as you heard in the data. I think that'll get more challenging. I think it just stands to reason that will get more challenging. Listen, the good news for us is, you know, we tend to get our share goes up. It's a big world. While China's been a little bit slower to sort of pick up steam on the development side, it is picking up steam. I think, you know, as particularly as we think about next year, I think it's gonna be a big net contributor. Conversions have been and continue to be a big focus of ours.
You know, we think we'll do meaningfully more as a percentage of overall delivery this year as conversions somewhat aided by this year a little bit, but a lot, I think, next year by Spark, which is a 100% conversion, very low cost of entry in a relative sense, very lightly if dependent at all on the banking community. That's not why we did Spark. We did Spark for all the right reasons to better serve, you know, create a bigger and better network effect. Just in time management, the timing of it actually is quite good. As I said, it's not gonna do a lot for this year, but I think over starting next year and beyond, it will add significantly.
The net of all that, Joe, is again answering, you know, trying to give a little bit of color across the board. You know, we do expect that what's going on in the banking system, particularly for limited service, which is, you know, disproportionately financed by the, by the regional and local banks, that they're gonna pull in their horns. They're gonna survive. It's, you know, most of them are gonna get through this, but there's gonna be less credit available, and that's gonna slow things down a bit.
Joe Greff (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you for that, Chris.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah.
Joe Greff (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
My follow-up question is this: If system-wide RevPAR is flat, which is sort of what's baked into the second half guidance, if we just think about it, you know, for the intermediate term, not that you're guiding to anything beyond the second half, do you think fee growth can be in excess of RevPAR growth, just given the rooms growth in the last few years?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Should be, yeah. Should be mathematically, yes.
Joe Greff (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you much.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
On flat, you know, the algorithm.
Joe Greff (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yes
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
...as you know, the, you know, sort of same store plus unit growth. You know, we've been delivering on average even through COVID, you know, five-ish, maybe a tick over, you know, even in an environment that, you know, is being impacted by some of the things I just described. We believe we'll continue to do that as we manage our way over the next couple of years back up to the 6%-7%. Even in a no growth same store environment, which is not certainly what we're experiencing now, for the record, as you can see, but even in that environment, fees would continue to grow with unit growth.
Joe Greff (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Shaun Kelley (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. Chris, I kind of wanted to stick with the development activity, but maybe let's just go out a little bit longer term. If you could help us pull from, you know, a little bit of your experience of how this played out during the global, you know, financial crisis a little bit. Just help us think about, you know, if we think about there's kind of three drivers, as I think about it. Domestic unit growth, obviously decently reliant on the financial system. The conversion activity, where you've got a pretty interesting pipeline of brands that might even be stronger than back then. Then the international side. Can you help us think about sort of buckets two and three?
As we get into 2024 and 2025, you know, how much could those help carry the weight? How protected do you think, let's call it a broad mid-single digit net unit growth target should be, in a variety of different scenarios as people are just trying to think about broader fallout here from, you know, financing and again, a more difficult macro broadly?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah. I mean, that's the right question to ask. I. That's why I said, yeah, we do expect to see some impact. I also said, maybe I backed into it, but I'll say it more directly. We feel good about being in that range that you just described. You know, we've been around five through the toughest down cycle, you know, in recorded history through COVID. We've stayed sort of five-ish or a tick above. We think, you know, over the next period of time, as these things sort of work their way through the system, that we'll be able to stay there. How are we gonna do it? Well, one, we're gonna gain share because our products perform better and, you know, we have the highest market share brands in the business.
We're gonna keep pushing market share higher. While there's gonna be potentially less new build activity domestically, we will plan to work hard to get an even larger share of that. Conversions, you know, we do believe that we're uniquely suited, certainly relative to the Great Recession, by having not only more shots on goal in terms of brands, but Spark. Again, there's long-term, we think Spark is probably the most disruptive thing that we'll have ever done. You know, in terms of giving customers at that price point a really good product. It's also the timing of it is convenient and helpful because it depends very little on financing. You know, most of the other conversions still depend on financing.
A lot of conversions, not all, but a lot of conversions do happen around asset transactions where people say, "I'm gonna sell buyer and a seller, and I'm gonna change brands and upgrade properties." We'll still, you know, convert a bunch of other types of properties that where they're not changing ownership. You know, that no change, you know, lower change of ownership puts a little pressure on that. Spark is a gift that will keep giving in the sense of unit growth. Because, again, you're talking about $20,000 a room.
You're talking about a $2 million sort of bogey, you know, for somebody to convert and get into our system, versus even at the lowest price point, you know, new builds that require financing and/or writing checks of, you know, $10 million-$15 million or most cases much higher than that. You know, conversions will play a big part in it. As I already said, it's a big world. You know, what's going on here in the U.S. is with the banking system is unlike the Great Recession, where the whole financial system around the world, you know, was sort of imperiled in free fall.
This really at the moment is more of a U.S. thing, obviously touched, you know, Europe a little bit with you know, in Switzerland, but it has largely been, you know, sort of contained to be a U.S. thing. You have the opportunities around the whole rest of the world. Notably, as I said, China, in the sense that, you know, China is probably taking a quarter or two more, so I think China won't contribute what I would have hoped it would this year. I think it'll be made up for next in 2024 and 2025 because the engines are really cranking up. It's just, you know, it's just a process. It will be, you know, it will be conversions, international growth and increased market share of what does get done in the U.S.
The other thing that is going on is, you know, we launched Spark. We're getting ready, and I'll maybe tickle the ivories a little bit. We're getting ready to launch another brand, sort of in the extended stay space at the lower end of midscale, very low end of midscale, below Home2, that we've been working with our ownership community and customers on. That while it will be a new build product, it will be a very efficient build cost. Again, but my history of this, living through the Great Recession, all that is, your lower cost to build products that are very high margin because people make the most money doing it, and they're the lowest risk, and they're the easiest financed. Those are the ones that get going the fastest.
Again, we didn't develop this brand that we're getting ready to launch, hopefully in the next 30 or 60 days because of this. We launched because customers want it, owners wanna build it. Again, it won't have any effect this year, but starting probably the latter part of 2024, more likely 2025, as people look at a brand that can deliver just astronomical margins on a very efficient per unit build cost, we think it will build a lot of excitement. Home2 has been off the hooks in demand, you know, throughout, you know, all the COVID and otherwise because people Customers love it. It's very high margin. We think customers are gonna love this. It's something different. It's at a lower price point, but the margins are much even higher than that.
Again, you know, it will take time to gestate that. We think that is a mega brand opportunity for us. That as we think about more likely 2025, 2026, even in an environment that's been more challenging, it is more challenging from a financing point of view. As the financing markets come back, and they always do, it's those products that really get done fastest. We feel good about, you know, being, you know, around five and headed back to 6%-7% over the next couple of years. It'll be, you know, a combo platter of all of, all of those things that you said and that I just spoke to.
Smedes Rose (Director)
Thank you very much.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
The next question is from Smedes Rose, from Citi. Please go ahead.
Smedes Rose (Director)
Hi, thanks. I just wanted to ask you quickly on that extended stay launch. You know, we've seen a lot of products from different brands being launched into the extended stay segment. I'm just curious, what do you think is driving so much interest from customers, and are they abandoning another segment of midscale? You know, we don't get data, or at least in our case, we don't get extended stay data specifically. We just see the chain scale data. I'm just wondering what sort of shifts you're seeing within that, you know, it's leading so many people to launch into that sector.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
We were already seeing it pre-COVID, where there was just, you know, a demand for workforce housing and people, you know, more mobility in their lives. They, you know, they wanted to be places and work from different places. You know, they, you know, They weren't gonna be there long enough to commit to, like, get an apartment and pay a, you know, pay, you know, you know, one year's deposit and all that fun stuff. So we were already seeing demand that was outstripping supply. Then COVID hit. While a lot of things have normalized, and I've talked about this on prior calls a bunch of times, the one thing that happened is it accelerated the idea of mobility.
You know, while, you know, the office environment is normalizing, a lot of people are going back, it's not exactly what it was. More, you know, more people are gonna be remote as a percentage of the workforce permanently. More are gonna have flexibility, you know, and sort of, you know, different times of year, times of the week, you know, Mondays and Fridays. All of that is continuing to just as those patterns shift, you know, it's building more and more demand against a limited amount of supply. The fundamentals, we think, are just great. The way I think about the product that we're developing, and I'm getting ahead of myself, but it's coming really soon. I mean, we have it. We've built it. We've done, you know, 99% of the work. It's almost a hybrid.
It's like an apartment efficiency meets hotel. I'd say it's, you know, it's almost like 60/40. It's more apartment efficiency. There's so many, you know, workforce housing needs that are just unmet with this kind of product for somebody who needs to be somewhere 30, 60, 90, 120 days. You're talking about average length of stay of probably 20-30 days on average, versus most of the core extended stay brands are like 5-10, maybe, you know, somewhere in that, in that range if you look at the industry. It's a different demand base, different types of locations, which is why we love it, 'cause we're not serving it, meaning it's not competitive with what we're doing with Home2 and certainly not competitive with Homewood.
Because it's serving a totally different need, mostly in totally different markets. As I said, we, you know, we'll get, you know, didn't intend to go this far, sorry. You know, this is hundreds of hotels over time. This is not like we're gonna do 50 or 100 of these. I mean, you'll wake up over time in 10 years and it'll be like Home2. We'll have, you know, four, five, six. We'll have a lot of these. Because we think the need is there now and growing.
While a lot of people are doing things in this arena, I think we've proven by launching brands that we do uniquely have done it pretty well to launch brands and get to scale and build network effect, not just broadly for the company, but within brands. We've done that, I think, as well or better than anybody. I, you know, I think, you know, I think we have an opportunity to do it here. Our system, you know, delivers the system delivers the highest market share in the business. As, you know, if you're an owner thinking about, "I'm gonna build a similar product somewhere else," I mean, you're gonna look at the system strength. Ultimately, I think, you know, historically, people vote with their feet.
They vote with, you know, a product that they think will work better from a customer point of view to ultimately higher margins and drive higher share. We gotta do it again, but we got a pretty good track record of doing this stuff. We spent a lot of time on this. Hopefully by the next time we talk, it'll be out of the chute, and we'll be talking about how many deals we got lined up.
Smedes Rose (Director)
Thank you. Can I just ask you a quick other question? The difference between the gross room additions in the first quarter and the net room just seemed kind of wider than what we've seen. Is that sort of a seasonal thing, or was there something in particular on the deletion side that you can call out or?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
You're talking about the difference between if you do Q1 and the guidance, Smedes?
Smedes Rose (Director)
Well, just the first quarter gross room additions and then the net room additions. It seemed just like a hot-.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Oh, no.
Smedes Rose (Director)
net growth through, close through.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
No. The removals is right in line with normal. We'll end up about 1% change for the year. Just the gross rooms from a timing perspective, I mean, I think I don't wanna repeat what Chris said earlier in the call, I think from a timing perspective for the full year, gross room additions were lower in the first quarter, deletions were about the same. That's the difference.
Smedes Rose (Director)
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Stephen Grambling (Managing Director, Head of US Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure Research)
Hey, thanks. Maybe following up on some of your comments about the new brand launches, Spark, and then it sounds like another one in the extended stay. When you think about growing into some of these lower end chain scales, I think many of the peers often see higher attrition rates or deletion rates. What can you do to ensure that the attrition rates from your brands are more resilient long term? Have you seen any evidence of that from your current lower chain scale brands, such as Tru?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
No. You mean attrition, meaning losing hotels out of the system? No. I mean, here's the listen, not to be too simplistic about it, but, you know, what we do is really made much easier by delivering commercial performance. Having great brands that resonate with customers, loyalty that connects the dots that customers are engaged with, product and service in those particular brands, you know, that really resonates with customers, ultimately our commercial engines and commercial strategies that deliver the highest level of market share. If you look at our...
frankly, if you look at like, you know, our Tru or Hampton, almost, I would say almost 100%, I don't know, 90%-100% of the deals that exit the system within those brands, and I don't think any Trus have exited the system that I'm aware of. It's a relatively new brand. I probably probably none. Hampton is by our choice, meaning, you know, that their time is up. They're in a location or they're, you know, in a, in a physical state that, you know, that we just don't think, you know, works anymore. So, you know, that's by our, by our choice. We have very little attrition. Back to where I started, the reason we have very little attrition is our mega category brands are category killers. They drive incredibly high share.
As we think about Spark, as we think about, you know, our new extended stay brand, we have to get it right, which we will. We have to drive really high share, which we will. The product has to really work for customers, which is what drives that, and people don't wanna leave, right? Our history is super good in the mega categories. If you go through the whole list of all our extent, you know, Home2, Homewood, Hampton, Tru, you know, the attrition there is almost all. You know, the vast majority of it is by our choice.
Stephen Grambling (Managing Director, Head of US Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure Research)
It's helpful context, and that's my one question. Thanks so much.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from David Katz from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
David Katz (Managing Director)
Morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to just go back to Spark because obviously a lot of enthusiasm and success, it's unlike things that you've done before. If we look at the makeup of the deals that you've put together, I'd love some color on what's in there. Are those independents that are, you know, looking for a brand? Are those, you know, switching from other brands for one reason or another? Are any of the hotels, you know, switching within your system into it that may have otherwise departed for one reason or another?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah. Of the 300. I'll give this direction. Of the 300 being around it, I would say almost all. It's very little of us, so, you know, there are a few Hamptons of the 300, so a teeny number of Hamptons that we would probably otherwise say will exit the system that we think for Spark will work even though they wouldn't work for Hampton, but that's a teeny-tiny amount. The rest of it is almost. There's a little bit of independent out of that data point, but it's almost all coming from other brands in the economy space and spread around what you would guess. You know, and I have some of that data, but I'm not sharing it.
David Katz (Managing Director)
Fair enough and understood. My follow-up is when we look at the revenue intensity of adding in this category, how does that measure up with your other brands? Obviously, the upper upscale a unit is generating more, right? How does the fee structure and the revenue intensity of this measure up and add to your system?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah. The fee structure is quite similar to other fee structures. They, you know, they are smaller, and it is at a lower rate. We think, you know, the rate here is probably $80-$90, you know, versus, you know, the Net Tru, which is, you know, in the $120s, with Hampton being at, like, $140. They're similar size, so a lot of the Trus and Hamptons, they're at a lower ADR by design. Yeah, you know, per pound fees will be a little bit less and certainly versus upper upscale. The thing you have to remember in our world is, you know, we're trying to create a network effect. You know, this is a massive customer acquisition tool for us.
There's 70 or 80 million people traveling in this segment, half of whom are younger people that travel, and this is all they can afford. While we serve some of them, we're not serving many of them. The opportunity is for us to get our, you know, get them hooked on our system early by giving them the best product that they can find in the economy space, because every single hotel, every customer-facing e-element of the hotel has to be done or it doesn't get our name. We regulate the gate. Nobody comes in, nobody passes through the gate until that's done. The other thing to remember is, it's an infinite yield.
We bring in, you know, tens of millions of new customers that are gonna trade up, they're gonna grow up, and they're gonna use our other products. They're gonna trade in and around our products. You know, we built this brand, you know, with a lot of, you know, with a lot of hard work and elbow grease, you know, from the standpoint of, you know, the deals that we're getting, while they may be per pound, a little lighter, we're not paying for them. I mean, it's, you know, that's the infinite yield. There's no investment. We continue to build, you know, these incremental fee streams. When you add up what the potential, I mean, I suspect, you know, 30 years ago, somebody said that about Hampton.
Well, I mean, you know, Hampton at that time was a $50 rate, and it's a 120-room hotel. How much money can that make you? Well, Hampton is a value in well into the billions of dollars because turns out when you do a few thousand of them, it adds up. The ultimate, you know, potential of Spark is bigger than Hampton because it's a bigger you know, bigger slice of the pie. We're very excited about it. We think it is, it is gonna add not just new unit growth, but it's gonna add significantly, to earnings, as it ramps up and ultimately, you know, to the overall value of the company.
David Katz (Managing Director)
Sounds like no meaningful key money there either.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Nope.
Kevin Jacobs (CFO and President of Global Development)
Yeah, I think.
David Katz (Managing Director)
Appreciate it as always. Yeah. Sorry.
Kevin Jacobs (CFO and President of Global Development)
Dave, just to add just a little bit, you know, Chris covered it. Yeah, I mean, the capital intensity in our business is much higher at the upper end, right? The higher you go on the chain scale, the more the deals are competitive and you're contributing capital. The other thing I'd say is where I think you know, sort of working with you for a while, I think where you're, where you were headed with that, I think, you know, from a revenue intensity perspective, Chris described it. As you layer in these lower fee for room hotels, mathematically, of course, your fee per room does go down. When we model it out over a long period of time, you'd be surprised the fees per room do not.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Keep going up.
Kevin Jacobs (CFO and President of Global Development)
They keep going up over time, we continue to grow at what, you know, what we often talk about as algorithm. If you take same store sales plus NUG, the fees per room and the fee growth continues at that pace. Part of that is because of the non-RevPAR driven fees that Chris mentioned earlier in the call, which we think will continue to grow at a higher rate than algorithm. You put that all in your model and, you know, it's surprisingly steady slash continues to grow.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
There is no year where fees per room are going down just 'cause the, the arithmetic and, you know, you continue to have RevPAR growth on the existing pool of assets that's, you know, that continues to go up. Yeah, fees per room as we model it five, 10 years out, just keep going up.
David Katz (Managing Director)
Yeah. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Robin Farley from UBS. Please go ahead.
Robin Farley (Managing Director and Leisure Analyst)
Great, thanks. I wanted to ask a little bit about the business transient performance in the quarter. I know you talked about RevPAR being ahead of 2019 levels, but I wonder if you could give us a sense of where either occupancy or number of business transient nights in the quarter compared to Q1 of 2019. It seemed like from kind of broader industry trends that Q4 didn't show that much sequential improvement from Q3 in terms of, you know, that change versus 2019. Maybe you'll say, you know, of course it may not matter at all when you have RevPAR performance as strong as what you have.
I'm certainly not, I'm not saying it's not a strong quarter, but I'm kind of curious what's going on with that business transient night piece of it. Thanks.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah. On a global basis, business transient, actually, you know, fourth quarter to first quarter ticked up. On a, you know, it was about in the fourth quarter, about 103, and it went to 104. Importantly, on an aggregate occupancy basis in the first quarter for the first time, it actually got back or slightly above where it was at the prior peak. That's not a U.S., that's a global number. Why is that happening in the face of everything you're reading? It's really simple, which is why I said it in the comments, it's SMEs. It's like, what we're all filtering through is, you know, big corporate America.
Big corporate America, you know, is worried about the world, you know, all the uncertainty, and maybe curbing some of their appetite for travel. Having said that, we had a big customer event, and I didn't get that impression even out of big corporate America. I think incrementally year-over-year, they're all traveling more, but maybe not as much as they would've thought. The SMEs continue, which are 85% of our business, continue to perform really, really well. The big corporates weren't really back in any event. Since they had not come back to prior levels, while they may recover more slowly, they're not, my impression from talking to a bunch of them, they're not really cutting because they already had cut so much and they hadn't built it back.
They're just, maybe it's flattening for them. Said it many times over the last few years, we have by choice, we were always quite dependent, 80% of our business was SMEs. It's 85% now by choice, meaning we have shifted our mix because it's higher rated business, it's more resilient, in the sense that it's more fragmented by the very nature of what it is. You know, business transient is alive and well, and I'd say it's, you know, in the first quarter, you know, both the price was above and volume was, you know, at or slightly above, and that trend continues into Q2, although, you know, we're early in Q2.
Robin Farley (Managing Director and Leisure Analyst)
Okay. Great. Very helpful. Thanks. Just the other question, kind of a small one, is your distribution through OTAs, I have to imagine that as business transient is coming back, that your OTA distribution is moving down compared to last year, just given that leisure's not as big a % of total?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
It's normalizing. It's slightly elevated, relative to pre-COVID, but not much. It's come down a bunch. We expect probably by the end of the year, it'll be normalized with where it was, which is where we want it to be.
Robin Farley (Managing Director and Leisure Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Brandt Montour from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Brandt Montour (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could just dig in a little bit to the drivers of the conversion activity, taking Spark out of it? Chris, you mentioned potentially lower hotel transaction activity from financing headwinds putting pressure, as well as, you know, financing being a headwind in and of itself, for doing non-Spark higher end conversions. I guess, could you stack that up against some of the maybe positive tailwinds, you know, perhaps enforcement of brand standards across the industry, forcing more trade down or even, you know, more independents getting more nervous looking for brands? How do you look at all those factors, on a net basis later into the year?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah, I'll take this one, Brandt. I think outside of Spark, 'cause we've covered that, I think you've got a couple of factors. One is, yeah, in sort of an environment where people are expecting demand to soften, they tend to seek out brands more often, and obviously, they tend to seek out the stronger brands. It's being driven by somewhat of demand for independent hotels converting to brands. I think the other factor is, in an environment where credit's tighter, a cash flowing hotel, right? Acquiring a hotel and that's already cash flowing is easier to finance than a new construction. I think those are the two primary drivers.
You think about, you know, some of the things that are going on around the world, but they're generally driven by transactions and you generally in a softening demand environment, easier to finance and more demand for the branded systems. Great. Thanks so much. Sure.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Bill Crow from Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Bill Crow (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, Chris and Kevin.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Morning, Bill.
Bill Crow (Managing Director)
As we think about the change to your guidance for 2023, how much of that is driven by areas outside the U.S., and has there really been any change or any positive change to U.S. expectations?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah. I think, Bill, what you're seeing is it's kind of it's across the board. It's positive change to all regions. Largely, I think Chris covered this earlier than Carl. Largely concentrated with, you know, the demand strength continuing into the second quarter and us taking the second quarter up a little bit. A little bit in the third quarter, and then, you know, and then if you think about pushing out the anticipated slowdown in the back half of the year. There is improvement in the outlook in all regions, including the U.S.
Bill Crow (Managing Director)
All right. Thanks. My follow-up, I'm gonna actually switch my follow-up. I wanna actually address something you just said, Chris, which is that large corporates seem to be flattening in their demand. I'm just curious whether this early in the recovery, and I know there are issues going on in tech and financial services in particular, but does this, you know, give credence to that argument that business travel never fully recovers?
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
I don't, I mean, I don't think so well, number one, prima facie evidence it has. I mean, it, you know, Bill, what I just finished on two questions ago, in the data in the first quarter, business travel has already recovered. I think what it means for us is, you know, in the intermediate term, as you get more certainty in the environment, there's upside in business travel. Meaning we've done a good job of shifting to SMEs. With that shift, we're sort of on a volume basis back to where we were, rate base is higher. The big corporates still have to travel. You know, by the way, the big corporates are also not one size fits all. It's really where you see the impact is technology, banking, consulting.
If you look at a lot of the other big corporate sectors, they're still growing, but those sectors weigh it down. As those sectors stabilize, and start to think about the future and being competitive and getting their sales forces back out and get out of cost-cutting mode, which they will, they always do, I look at it as upside. I think when you wake up, you know, in one or two years and we're in a little, you know, and we're in a whenever we get to a more certain environment, hopefully it's sooner than later, I think the opportunity will be that business travel, both volume and price, will be higher than the prior peak. I think the same thing for the group business.
What's happened in the last three years has done nothing but reinforce. I mean, we're definitely benefiting from a lot of pent-up demand, but it's done nothing but reinforce as I talk to all of our group customers and the like, that the need for people to be congregating to do the things that they do and culture and collaboration and innovation and all of those fun things. You know, I kind of famously said, when we get through this in like April, May of 2020, I think it'll look a lot more like it did than it does. I still think that. I think the data largely supports it.
If you look at the business mix, like this quarter versus pre-COVID, and you know, the big segments of business transient, leisure transient and group, we're within a point. I mean, right now, the only difference is leisure is a point higher and group's a point lower. Otherwise, it's about where it was, right? That's because, you know, group takes time to sort of, you know, to come back. In the meantime, leisure's been strong. Ultimately, as we get strong, high-rated groups back, we will continue to mix more of that in. I do not personally believe there is credence to that argument. I think the data supports that argument at this moment.
Bill Crow (Managing Director)
Thanks, Chris. Look forward to seeing you early next month.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Yeah, same.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.
Chris Nassetta (President and CEO)
Thank you, Chad. Thanks, everybody, for the time today. Interesting times with all, you know, the word of the day is uncertainty. You know, as you can see, we feel very good about what we delivered in the first quarter. We feel great about the second quarter. Frankly, we feel pretty good about the full year. We're making sure that we're keeping our eyes wide open about what's going on in the world. You know, we continue to do well and deliver and, most importantly, return more and more capital, which we'll continue to do. Thank you for the time, and we'll look forward to catching up with you after the quarter.
Operator (participant)
The conference has now concluded. Thank Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
