Executive Summary

HOLX delivered Q3 FY2025 revenue of $1,023.8M (+1.2% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.08, both above guidance; Diagnostics grew while Breast Health improved sequentially as planned. Management highlighted “progress” toward accelerating into Q4 and FY2026 as breast rebounds and interventional gains traction .
Versus S&P Global consensus, HOLX beat on revenue by ~$18M and on EPS by ~$0.03, aided by Diagnostics strength, interventional momentum (Endomag) and disciplined OpEx; Q3 tariff impact in COGS was only ~$1.4M as mitigation actions kicked in . Consensus figures from S&P Global; see Estimates table.
FY2025 guidance was raised at the midpoints: revenue to $4.081–$4.091B and non-GAAP EPS to $4.23–$4.26; Q4 revenue guided to $1.03–$1.04B and non-GAAP EPS $1.09–$1.12. Tax rate ~19.25% and diluted shares ~228M maintained .
Near-term stock catalysts: visible Q4 return to growth, raised FY EPS guide, tariff headwind cut roughly in half for FY2026 ($10–$12M/quarter vs $20–$25M prior), and Breast Health execution with interventional reaching ~$100M run-rate in Q3 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Diagnostics grew with molecular momentum; U.S. molecular ex-COVID grew 7.3% and BV/CV/TV plus Fusion assays led growth. “Panther utilization continues to reach new all-time highs” .
- Interventional Breast posted strong growth; Endomag contributed nearly $20M at healthy margins and turns organic in August. CEO: “the operative word for Hologic in the third quarter was progress” .
- Cash generation robust with $343.2M CFO; adjusted EBITDA rose to $340.9M; net leverage 0.6x, refinancing extended maturities to 2030 .
What Went Wrong
- Breast imaging down 14.4% YoY on lower mammography capital as expected; organic Breast Health declined 10.1% YoY; mix and reserves pressured non-GAAP gross margin (-80 bps YoY) .
- China and USAID-linked HIV funding pressures weighed on Diagnostics; total China now < $10M/quarter, down >50% YoY, likely to persist into 1H FY2026 .
- Tariffs remain a headwind despite mitigation; FY2026 expected $10–$12M per quarter (Q4 FY2025 ~$8M), a ~100 bps gross margin headwind vs FY2025 .

Financial Results

Quarterly actuals (reported; non-GAAP margins where noted)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1,021.8	$1,005.3	$1,023.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.87	$(0.08)	$0.86
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$1.03	$1.03	$1.08
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %	61.6%	61.1%	60.3%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin %	29.4%	30.0%	30.1%
Non-GAAP Net Margin %	23.4%	23.2%	23.8%

Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Beat/(Miss)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1,005.7M*	$1,023.8M	+$18.1M*
Non-GAAP EPS ($)	$1.05*	$1.08	+$0.03*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$336.4M*	$340.9M	+$4.5M*

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment revenue (YoY comparables)

Segment ($M)	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	YoY %
Diagnostics – Cytology & Perinatal	$122.2	$121.4	(0.7%)
Diagnostics – Molecular	$310.7	$320.5	3.2%
Diagnostics – Blood Screening	$7.9	$7.0	(11.4%)
Total Diagnostics	$440.8	$448.9	1.8%
Breast Imaging	$309.2	$264.7	(14.4%)
Interventional Breast Solutions	$75.8	$100.5	32.6%
Total Breast Health	$385.0	$365.2	(5.1%)
GYN Surgical	$166.6	$178.4	7.1%
Skeletal Health	$19.0	$31.3	64.7%
Total Company	$1,011.4	$1,023.8	1.2%

KPIs and cash/returns

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$326.0	$325.8	$340.9
Cash from Operations ($M)	$189.3	$169.5	$343.2
COVID Assay Revenue ($M)	$16.9	$10.5	$6.5
COVID-Related Revenue ($M)	$26.7	$26.6	$25.0
Share Repurchases ($M)	$517	$200	$36
Cash & Equivalents ($B)	$1.782	$1.429	$1.735
Net Leverage (x)	0.6x	0.8x	0.6x

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY2025	$4.050–$4.100B	$4.081–$4.091B	Raised (midpoint +$11M)
GAAP EPS	FY2025	$2.47–$2.57	$2.56–$2.59	Raised
Non-GAAP EPS	FY2025	$4.15–$4.25	$4.23–$4.26	Raised
Revenue	Q4 2025	—	$1.030–$1.040B	New
GAAP EPS	Q4 2025	—	$0.90–$0.93	New
Non-GAAP EPS	Q4 2025	—	$1.09–$1.12	New
Non-GAAP Tax Rate	FY2025	~19.25%	~19.25%	Maintained
Diluted Shares	FY2025	~228M	~228M	Maintained

Other guidance assumptions disclosed:

Q4 gross/operating margins: “low 60%” and “low 30%,” respectively; other income net ≈ $20M expense .
Q4 FX tailwind ≈ $6M .
Q4 COVID assay ≈ $5M; COVID-related ≈ $25M; blood screening ≈ $5M .
Tariffs: ~$8M in Q4 FY2025; FY2026 ~$10–$12M per quarter after mitigation (roughly half prior estimate) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Breast Health trajectory	Q1: Breast imaging weaker on capital; organic Breast Health down 5.9% . Q2: continued weakness; lowered EPS guide partly on tariffs/geopolitics .	Sequential improvement; 3D gantries up vs Q2; Interventional +31.8% reported, +6% organic; Endomag ~$20M .	Improving
Diagnostics momentum	Q1: Molecular +6.7%; ex-COVID mol +10.9% . Q2: Molecular +1.0%; ex-COVID mol +7.2% .	Molecular +3.2% reported; ex-COVID mol +6.0%; Panther Fusion traction; BV/CV/TV strong .	Stable to improving
China/HIV headwinds	Q2: EPS trimmed partly on geopolitics; cited China/HIV risks .	China now < $10M/quarter, >50% YoY decline; USAID HIV funding pressure persists into 1H FY2026 .	Worsening near term
Tariffs	Q2: EPS lowered; worst-case $20–$25M/quarter flagged .	Mitigation halves run-rate to $10–$12M/quarter; Q4 FY2025 ~$8M .	Improving
AI/Technology	—	Launching Genius AI Detection PRO; reduces read time up to 24%; Genius Digital Cytology rollout underway .	Building
Capital allocation/M&A	Q1: Completed Gynesonics acquisition (Jan 2) .	Balanced buybacks and tuck-ins; no large deals imminent; Endomag exceeding deal model .	Consistent

Management Commentary

CEO Steve MacMillan: “the operative word for Hologic in the third quarter was progress… very well positioned for better results as we close out fiscal 2025 and move into next year” .
On Breast Health: “We shipped more 3D gantries than in the prior quarter… rolled out a new strategy to upgrade older end-of-life gantries… Endomag contributed nearly $20 million… will begin adding to organic growth rates in August” .
On AI: “launching… Genius AI Detection PRO… an all-in-one AI assistant… shown to reduce radiologists’ overall reading time up to 24%” .
CFO Karleen Oberton: Non-GAAP gross margin decline driven by mix and a Skeletal reserve tied to discontinuing Fluoroscan; COGS included ~$1.4M tariffs in Q3; FY2026 tariffs to ~$10–$12M/quarter after mitigation .
COO Essex Mitchell: “we expect to mitigate roughly half” of tariff impact via supply chain, procurement and operating changes .

Q&A Highlights

FY2026 growth outlook: Management targets mid-single-digit organic growth despite 1H headwinds from China/HIV and Fluoroscan discontinuation; Envision gantry launch expected to help from late FY2026 .
Breast Health visibility: Salesforce reorg and end-of-life upgrade strategy are driving better quarter starts and sequential gantry upticks; confidence in Q4 return to growth .
Endomag ramp: ~100% growth cited; strength driven by direct U.S. commercialization and steady daily sales cadence; expected to be a meaningful organic contributor .
Fusion and menu expansion: Open Access contributed in Q3; broader Fusion menu (GI/HAI) expected to come online late 2026–2027; not “BV/CV/TV-sized” but additive .
Regional risks: China remains smaller (<$10M) and down >50%; Africa HIV funding cuts continue; International Surgical remains strong with new reimbursement/market entries .

Estimates Context

Q3 FY2025: Revenue $1,023.8M vs $1,005.7M consensus*; non-GAAP EPS $1.08 vs $1.05 consensus* — beats on both; adjusted EBITDA $340.9M vs $336.4M consensus* .
Trailing quarters: Q2 EPS $1.03 vs $1.02 consensus* and revenue $1,005.3M vs $1,000.4M*; Q1 EPS $1.03 vs $1.02 consensus* and revenue $1,021.8M vs $1,022.3M* (slight revenue miss).
Implications: Raised FY EPS range and Q4 guidance likely prompt modest upward EPS revisions, with tariff mitigation lowering FY2026 gross margin risk in models .