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HOME BANCSHARES INC (HOMB)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter: GAAP EPS $0.63 and net income $123.6M driven by 12 bps NIM expansion to 4.56%, best in 12 months, and disciplined expenses; adjusted EPS $0.61. Total revenue (company “Total revenue (net)”) $277.7M; S&P Global revenue actual $274.0M vs $270.0M consensus (beat) . Values with asterisks are from S&P Global estimates data.*
  • Beats vs Street: Adjusted EPS $0.61 vs $0.597 consensus (beat); revenue $274.0M vs $270.0M (beat), supported by higher loan income and lower interest expense from sub-debt actions and deposit repricing .*
  • Credit steady/improving: NPLs/loans fell to 0.56% (0.63% prior), NPAs/assets to 0.56% (0.60% prior); ACL/loans 1.87%, coverage of NPLs 335% .
  • Capital returns and catalysts: Redeemed $140M 2030 sub debt and repurchased $20M of 2032 sub debt (interest expense tailwind into Q4); dividend subsequently raised 5% to $0.21 for December 2025. Management disclosed a signed LOI for an acquisition (size undisclosed) .
  • Stock reaction context: Despite strong print, management noted sector-driven selling and said shares were down ~3% on the day amid broad bank weakness, framing a potential dislocation for buybacks and M&A currency flexibility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Margin expansion and revenue mix: NIM rose to 4.56% from 4.44% in Q2, with core margin ex-event income 4.53% vs 4.43% in Q2; total company “Total revenue (net)” advanced to $277.7M (from $271.0M) on higher loan yields and lower deposit costs .
  • Expense discipline and efficiency: Efficiency ratio improved to 40.21% (adjusted 40.95%), best in 12 months; management reiterated tight expense control across regions and aims to trim elevated one-time items .
  • Credit stabilization: NPAs declined (0.60% → 0.56% of assets) and NPLs fell (0.63% → 0.56% of loans) Q/Q; management expects DFW apartment non-accrual to be sold in Q4 (10% hard deposit received) and does not anticipate additional loss on a large Texas C&I exposure .

What Went Wrong

  • Loan growth modest and mixed: Loans grew $105.3M Q/Q, with community banking +$164.8M offset by a $59.4M decline at Centennial CFG; management attributed some underperformance to late-quarter payoffs and timing of closings (pushed into Q4) .
  • Elevated non-interest expense components: Non-interest expense of $114.8M included donations and other items; management targets a move back toward ~$111M as one-time costs abate .
  • Event-driven non-interest income: Gain on retirement of sub debt ($1.9M), lawsuit recovery ($1.8M), and recoveries on historic losses ($2.0M) boosted other income—good for the quarter but not inherently recurring .

Financial Results

Headline results vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Company “Total revenue (net)” ($M)258.0 271.0 277.7
S&P Global Revenue Actual ($M)*239.1*266.8*274.0*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)0.50 0.60 0.63
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)0.50 0.58 0.61

Notes: S&P Global figures marked with asterisks differ from company “Total revenue (net)” due to methodology/definitions. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus

MetricConsensusActual (S&P)Surprise
Adjusted EPS ($)0.5970*0.61 Beat (~$0.01)*
Revenue ($M)270.0*274.0*Beat (~$4.0M)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPIs and margins

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Interest Margin (FTE)4.28% 4.44% 4.56%
Efficiency Ratio41.42% 41.68% 40.21%
Efficiency Ratio (Adjusted)41.66% 42.01% 40.95%
ROA1.74% 2.08% 2.17%
ROA (Adjusted)1.72% 2.02% 2.10%
ROTCE (Adjusted)16.09% 17.68% 17.70%

Credit and balance sheet

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Loans ($B)14.82 15.18 15.29
Total Deposits ($B)16.71 17.49 17.33
NPAs / Assets0.63% 0.60% 0.56%
NPLs / Loans0.68% 0.63% 0.56%
ACL / Loans2.11% 1.86% 1.87%

Segment/portfolio lens (loans)

  • Community Banking: Q3 organic growth +$164.8M .
  • Centennial Commercial Finance Group (CCFG): Loans $1.78B, Q/Q -$59.4M; originations ~$400M in Q3 with closings spilling into Q4 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Interest MarginNear-termNo formal guidanceManagement expects relative stability (+/– few bps) even with rate cuts; rapid repricing actions support stability Maintained (stable outlook)
Operating ExpensesNear-termRun-rate ~$114–116M recent quarters Aim to trim toward ~$111M as one-time items roll off; presidents reviewing opportunities Lower (targeted)
CD RepricingNext 3 quartersNot previously specified~$1.35B maturing at avg 3.67%; management negotiating renewals in mid-3s or lower depending on competition New detail (potential cost tailwind)
Subordinated Debt Interest ExpenseQ4 2025N/AFull-quarter benefit from $140M 2030 payoff (late July) plus $20M 2032 repurchase; tailwind to NII/NIM Lower run-rate
DividendsQ4 2025$0.20 (Q3 payment) $0.21 declared for Dec 3, 2025 (+5%) Raised
M&AForwardOpportunisticSigned LOI with a multi‑billion asset target; emphasis on balance-sheet marks and AOCI solution New development

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
NIM & Rate SensitivityNIM steady at 4.44% with deposit cost declines; proactive pricing NIM 4.56%; management expects stability amid cuts; rapid repricing capability Improving/stable
Loan Growth & PipelineQ1: Community +$291.5M, CCFG -$103.9M; Q2: Loans +$228.5M (both segments grew) Q3: +$105.3M, community +$164.8M, CCFG -$59.4M; timing shifts into Q4; healthy pipelines Moderate; Q4 set-up
Credit QualityQ4’24 cleanup drove large charge-offs; Q1 net recoveries; Q2 low NCOs NPAs/NPLs down; DFW apartment non-accrual sale under contract; Texas C&I watched with no expected loss Improving/stable
Capital ActionsOngoing buybacks/dividends $140M sub debt redeemed; $20M repurchased; CET1 16.1%; TBVPS +69c Q/Q; dividend later increased Strengthening
Legal/LitigationQ2 legal claims expense, reimbursements Partial lawsuit settlement gain; more expected Q4 Resolving
Deposits & LiquidityDeposit costs trended lower; BTFP runoff Deposits -$161M Q/Q on tax payments; wholesale deposits only 2.3% of liabilities Stable core
M&AMonitoringSigned LOI; focus on AOCI solutions with strong capital Accelerating

Management Commentary

  • “HOMB’s powerful, peer leading margins and efficiencies, coupled with strong revenues, propelled HOMB to another top tier, best in class third quarter performance.” – John Allison, Chairman .
  • “Margin kicked up 12 basis points to 4.56%, and that's the best it's been in 12 months... Efficiency ratio... best in 12 months at 40.21%.” – John Allison .
  • “We screen a little asset-sensitive... our job is to react... to get rates down to offset the loan side.” – Stephen Tipton on deposit repricing response to rate cuts .
  • “Asset quality improved overall again... DFW apartment non‑accrual under an agreement for sale... we still do not believe that there is any additional loss” on a large Texas C&I credit. – Kevin Hester .
  • “We have signed the letter of intent... It’s someone that we like... good business.” – John Allison on M&A .

Q&A Highlights

  • NIM outlook: Despite asset sensitivity, management expects relative stability with quick deposit repricing and full-quarter sub-debt benefit in Q4; core margin ex-event income 4.53% in Q3 .
  • Deposits: Wholesale only ~2.3% of liabilities; focus on core deposit growth across TX and FL; seasonal tax payments drove Q/Q decline .
  • CDs and funding costs: ~$1.35B CDs mature over next 3 quarters at 3.67% avg; management negotiating down to mid‑3s or lower depending on competition .
  • Expenses: Q3 included one-time items; leadership targeting lower run-rate near ~$111M over time .
  • Credit: DFW apartment non‑accrual sale pending (10% deposit), Texas C&I monitored without expected additional loss; NPAs/NPLs improved Q/Q .
  • M&A: Signed LOI for a multi‑billion asset target; emphasis on AOCI mark/repair with HOMB’s capital .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Adjusted EPS $0.61 vs $0.597 consensus (beat), revenue $274.0M vs $270.0M (beat). FY 2025 consensus EPS $2.355 and revenue $1.080B imply continued high performance. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Target price consensus $33.13 with 8 estimates provides additional valuation anchor. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • HOMB continues to deliver top-tier profitability: ROA 2.17%, NIM 4.56%, efficiency ~40%, with improving credit metrics—supporting premium bank multiples .
  • Beat-and-raise dynamics via controllables: Lower interest expense post sub-debt actions and CD repricing runway should help defend NIM into Q4 despite cuts .
  • Credit normalization tailwinds: NPAs/NPLs improved Q/Q; pending DFW apartment resolution and strong reserve coverage (ACL/NPL ~335%) reduce tail-risk optics .
  • Operating leverage remains a lever: Management is pressing expenses lower from $114.8M toward ~$111M, reinforcing best-in-class efficiency .
  • Capital return flexibility: Higher dividend ($0.21 in Dec) and buybacks coexist with M&A optionality, enabled by strong ROTCE and CET1 16.1% .
  • M&A optionality is real: Signed LOI signals an active pipeline; HOMB’s balance-sheet capacity to solve AOCI for targets can be a competitive advantage .
  • Trading setup: Management cited sector-driven weakness on print day despite strength; HOMB’s fundamentals and capital actions provide support on dips .

Additional detail

  • Operating drivers Q/Q: Net interest income (FTE) increased to $229.1M (from $222.5M) with loan income +$7.5M and interest expense -$1.8M (lower sub-debt and deposits), partially offset by lower income on deposits at other banks .
  • Non-interest income composition: $51.5M including other income $14.0M, other service charges/fees $12.1M, deposit service charges $10.5M, mortgage $4.7M, trust fees $4.6M; included $1.9M sub-debt retirement gain and $1.8M lawsuit recovery .
  • Balance sheet: Loans $15.29B (record), deposits $17.33B, assets $22.71B; CET1 16.1%, TCE/TA 13.08%; TBVPS $14.13 (+$0.69 Q/Q) .

Citations

  • Q3 2025 8‑K press release and financial tables .
  • Q3 2025 press release (duplicate content) .
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript .
  • Q2 2025 8‑K press release and financials (trend) .
  • Q1 2025 press release (trend) .
  • Dividend increase release Oct 22, 2025 .

S&P Global estimates

  • Consensus/actuals for EPS and revenue, and target price consensus: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*