HQY Q1 2026: Revenue +15%, EBITDA +19% Driven by Fraud Cost Cuts
- Strong financial performance: Q1 2026 delivered 15% revenue growth and 19% increase in adjusted EBITDA, indicating robust operational performance and effective scaling of core business activities.
- Effective cost management: The company reduced fraud service costs significantly from approximately $11,000,000 in Q4 to $3,000,000 in Q1 by enhancing fraud detection and leveraging mobile security initiatives, improving overall operating efficiency.
- Positive regulatory tailwinds and market expansion: Recent legislative proposals aimed at expanding HSA eligibility—such as allowing Medicare Part A beneficiaries to continue contributing—could unlock a net addition of 20,000,000 new families, further fueling growth and broadening the addressable market.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds: Management expressed caution about the overall macro impact—including slower GDP growth and job creation—that could dampen new account sales and overall business momentum ( ).
- Persistent Fraud Concerns: Although Q1 fraud reimbursements fell from $11M in Q4 to $3M in Q1, management has not yet reached its target fraud cost run rate, and ongoing reliance on evolving security measures poses continued risk ( , ).
- Legislative and Regulatory Uncertainty: While the proposed HSA expansion measures offer potential upside, the uncertainty in the legislative process could delay or scale back the expected market expansion, negatively impacting future growth ( ).
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | FY 2026 | $1,280,000,000 to $1,305,000,000 | $1,285,000,000 to $1,305,000,000 | raised |
GAAP Net Income | FY 2026 | $164,000,000 to $179,000,000 | $173,000,000 to $188,000,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Net Income | FY 2026 | $318,000,000 to $333,000,000 | $320,000,000 to $335,000,000 | raised |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2026 | $525,000,000 to $545,000,000 | $530,000,000 to $550,000,000 | raised |
Average Yield on HSA Cash | FY 2026 | Approximately 3.45% | Approximately 3.5% | raised |
Income Tax Rate | FY 2026 | Approximately 25% | Approximately 25% | no change |
Diluted Share Count | FY 2026 | 89,000,000 | 88,500,000 | lowered |
Share Repurchases | FY 2026 | Under $300,000,000 repurchase authorization | Under $300,000,000 repurchase authorization | no change |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Fraud Cost Management and Detection | Discussed in Q4 2025 with incremental service costs around $17M due to fraud protection and in Q3 2025 with $8M in excess service costs for fraud-related events. | Q1 2026 highlighted a significant reduction in fraud costs to $3M from $11M in Q4, with increased investments in AI-driven fraud detection and prevention and improvements in retention. | Improved sentiment with effective cost reduction and enhanced technology investments shifting focus from high expense to proactive fraud management. |
Legislative and Regulatory Impact on the HSA Market | Q4 2025 mentioned bipartisan legislation and reconciliation pathways for HSA expansion. Q3 2025 detailed the HOPE Act, HSA Modernization and Improvement Acts along with regulatory actions. Q2 2025 cited bipartisan support for the HOPE Act to expand access. | In Q1 2026, the discussion focused on a proposed budget bill with provisions to expand HSA access for working seniors and others, signaling optimism about legislative changes. | Consistent optimism with continued emphasis on legislative change, now with clear market-expanding bills under discussion. |
Margin Performance and Operational Efficiency | Q4 2025 noted lower gross margins (61% vs 62%) impacted by fraud and consolidation costs. Q3 and Q2 2025 showed improved margins driven by HSA mix shifts and operational efficiencies (e.g., 66% gross margin in Q3, 68% in Q2). | In Q1 2026, gross profit improved to 68% of revenue with lower fraud-related costs and further operational efficiency gains through AI and mobile-first initiatives. | Gradual improvement with enhanced operational efficiency and cost normalization, driven by technology and reduced fraud-driven expenses. |
Revenue Growth and Market Expansion Opportunities | Q4 2025 reported strong revenue growth (19% YoY) with record service, custodial, and interchange revenue. Q3 2025 highlighted 21% growth driven by HSA expansion and new product initiatives. Q2 2025 showed double-digit revenue growth and record new HSA openings. | Q1 2026 continued with robust growth: revenue up 15% YoY, record custodial revenue (29% growth), and strong interchange revenue, supported by legislative and technology-driven market expansion strategies. | Consistently strong growth with a stable upward trajectory in revenue and market expansion, further bolstered by tech and legislative catalysts. |
Digital Transformation and Technology Investments | Q4 2025 focused on launching a new app experience and AI-driven automation along with fraud prevention enhancements. Q3 2025 emphasized digital member education, mobile wallet integration, and efficiency improvements through tech spending. Q2 2025 discussed digitization, API development, and generative AI initiatives for operational efficiency. | Q1 2026 reinforced investments in AI for real-time claims adjudication, a member-first secure mobile experience (including mandatory mobile authentication), and innovations like digital wallet and custom brokerage investing. | Steady and enhanced focus on digital transformation with incremental advances in AI, mobile strategies, and automation improving member experience and cost management. |
Emergence of New Health Payment and Enhanced Rate Products | Q4 2025 detailed enhanced rate product penetration (49% of HSA cash, target 60% by fiscal 2027) and the launch of the Assist portfolio. Q3 2025 highlighted a growing new product pipeline and strategic pricing adjustments. Q2 2025 introduced Health Payment Accounts (HPAs) and noted progress in transitioning HSA cash to enhanced rate products. | There was no specific discussion of new health payment or enhanced rate products in Q1 2026 [N/A]. | Drop in emphasis: Previously a key focus, this topic was not discussed in the current period, suggesting it may be on hold or considered resolved for now. |
Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Risks | Q3 2025 focused on custodial yield assumptions based on forward interest rate curves (yield guidance of 3.4%-3.5%) and acknowledged inherent uncertainties. Q2 2025 discussed a lower annualized yield of 3.1%, the impact of rate shifts on floating components, and CFO insights on rate adjustments. Q4 2025 had no detailed discussion on these risks. | Q1 2026 provided a detailed analysis of softer macroeconomic conditions affecting HSA sales and discussed interest rate risks, including an annualized HSA cash yield of 3.5%, forward treasury contracts, and various derisking measures. | Increased emphasis: The current period shows a deeper focus on managing macroeconomic and interest rate risks with more detailed hedging strategies and yield management compared to previous selective mentions. |
Diminishing Focus on Card Migration Challenges | Q3 2025 noted significant operational challenges with the largest wave of card migration, which led to $8M in excess service costs. Q2 2025 indicated that the card processor migration had wrapped up, enabling digital wallet integration. Q4 2025 mentioned ongoing migration efforts and associated costs with card consolidation. | Q1 2026 did not mention card migration challenges, implying this issue is no longer a focus or has been largely resolved. | Diminishing focus: Earlier challenges have normalized as migration has completed, resulting in no discussion in the current period. |
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HSA Sales
Q: Is macro slowing HSA sales?
A: Management explained that although new HSA sales of $150,000 are lower than last year’s $194,000, they’re still above the $134,000 from prior periods. Tough comps and soft macro conditions are at play, yet a strong enterprise pipeline keeps them optimistic. -
Hedging Duration
Q: What is the forward rate duration?
A: They have locked in forward treasury contracts for a 5-year duration, securing a base rate of 4% on about $500M of maturities to de-risk future replacement. -
Fraud Costs
Q: How do fraud savings affect guidance?
A: Q1 fraud reimbursements dropped to $3M from $11M, meeting expectations as the team works toward a one basis point run rate in the second half without adjusting full-year guidance. -
Legislative Impact
Q: Is HSA market expansion net or doubled?
A: Management clarified that the additional eligible population translates to a net 20 million increase in addressable market—not a doubling to 40 million—by combining Medicare Part A and exchange inclusion. -
Mobile Security
Q: How are mobile app downloads progressing?
A: With current downloads at 1,200,000, management is pushing mandatory mobile authentication by the fall to enhance security across all 10M HSA accounts. -
Enterprise Retention
Q: Is fraud affecting enterprise client retention?
A: Management noted no fallout from fraud events, with enterprise client retention remaining in the high 90s, thanks to robust fraud prevention measures and clear communication. -
AI Efficiency
Q: Is AI reducing service costs?
A: They emphasized that AI-driven claims adjudication and chat support are streamlining service processes, enabling instantaneous resolution and cost savings, although exact figures were not disclosed. -
Cash vs Investment
Q: How do cash and investment yields compare?
A: Custodial cash yields are around 3.5%, while investment cash earns in the high 20s basis points, reflecting different member behaviors and unit economics across the segments. -
Forward Contract Upside
Q: Do forward hedges capture upside?
A: While forward contracts secure more attractive maturities, any upside is passed to the counterparty rather than retained, as the focus is on reducing rate exposure for about $5.7B in maturities. -
Product Rollout
Q: Is the stacked card and Analyzer live now?
A: The CHIP-enabled stacked card is live for new members, already integrated with Apple Pay, and Analyzer is generally available for enterprise clients with 50+ HSAs. -
CDB and HPA Growth
Q: How are CDB and HPA products performing?
A: Management highlighted continued sequential growth in bundled CDB accounts and strong uptake of new HPA initiatives, reinforcing the enterprise value proposition.
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