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Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered solid top-line growth: net product revenue $184.7M (+20% YoY) and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS $1.03; GAAP diluted EPS $0.78 . Versus consensus, HRMY posted a material EPS beat and a modest revenue beat (consensus EPS $0.61*, revenue $182.3M*)*
- Guidance maintained: FY 2025 net product revenue $820–$860M reiterated; management flagged potential Q2 trade inventory drawdown of “a few days” and increased R&D milestone spending (~$29M) tied to ZYN002 and orexin programs .
- Commercial KPIs strong: average WAKIX patients rose to ~7,200, exiting Q1 at ~7,300; payer coverage remains broad (>80% of U.S. lives), with no step-through to oxybate required .
- Pipeline catalysts near term: RECONNECT Phase 3 topline for ZYN002 in Fragile X (Q3 2025; recruitment completed), pitolisant GR bioequivalence topline (Q3 2025), and orexin-2 agonist preclinical data at SLEEP (June) with IND filing mid-2025 .
- Operational posture: U.S.-based IP/manufacturing strategy to mitigate tariff and supply-chain risk; secondary WAKIX manufacturing site underway in the U.S., HD manufacturing U.S.-based .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- WAKIX demand sustained: net revenue $184.7M (+20% YoY); average patients ~7,200 with exit ~7,300; prescriber penetration >50% outside oxybate REMS; payer coverage stable and broad .
- EPS beat vs Street: non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS $1.03 vs consensus $0.61*; GAAP diluted EPS $0.78; non-GAAP adjustments included stock-based comp ($12.45M), amortization ($5.96M), and tax effects *.
- Pipeline execution: ZYN002 Phase 3 completed recruitment; RECONNECT powered >90% for primary endpoint; pitolisant GR pivotal study initiated (topline Q3 2025); pitolisant HD Phase 3 starts Q4 2025; orexin-2 agonist on track for mid-2025 IND .
What Went Wrong
- Higher operating expenses: total OpEx $96.5M (+29% YoY), with R&D $34.5M (+56%), reflecting pipeline spend; margin pressure in GAAP terms offset by strong gross profit and non-GAAP profitability .
- Inventory phasing risk: management highlighted potential Q2 trade inventory drawdown of a few days; typical seasonal gross-to-net headwinds in Q1 persisted .
- IH regulatory setback lingered: prior RTF for pitolisant IH sNDA acknowledged in Q4 call; HD path requires new Phase 3 trials (Q4 2025 start), delaying IH label expansion .
Financial Results
Revenue, Gross Profit, and Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
EPS (GAAP and Non-GAAP) vs Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Margins
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment/KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Net product revenue for the quarter was $184.7 million, a 20% increase year-over-year… we remain confident that WAKIX is on track to reach a $1 billion plus opportunity in narcolepsy alone…” — Jeffrey Dayno, CEO .
- “We confirm our net revenue guidance in the range of $820 million to $860 million… penetration within non-oxybate prescribers is now over 50%.” — Adam Zaeske, CCO .
- “The study is powered more than 90% for the primary endpoint… based on learnings from the CONNECT study” — Kumar Budur on ZYN002 RECONNECT .
- “We ended the first quarter with $610.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments… reiterating net revenue guidance for 2025 of $820–$860 million.” — Sandip Kapadia, CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- ZYN002 trial design/powering: >90% powered for ABC-CFXS Social Avoidance subscale; rigorous inclusion and caregiver training to optimize signal detection .
- Payer landscape resilient: >80% coverage; no step-through to oxybate; no material changes in Q1; supports revenue guidance .
- Guidance drivers: sequential patient adds (avg 7,200; exit 7,300) and stable conversion/adherence underpin FY range .
- Pitolisant HD/GR programs: HD Phase 3 in narcolepsy/IH Q4 2025 with differentiated endpoints (fatigue, sleep inertia); GR bioequivalence topline Q3 2025 .
- Concomitant therapy: ~10–15% of WAKIX patients also use oxybate; administratively manageable, low budget impact for payers .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025: non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS $1.03 vs consensus $0.608*; revenue $184.7M vs consensus $182.3M* — a significant EPS beat and modest revenue beat *.
- Prior quarters: Q4 2024 non-GAAP EPS $1.08 vs $0.734*; revenue $201.3M vs $201.2M*; Q3 2024 non-GAAP EPS $1.03 vs $0.665*; revenue $186.0M vs $184.1M* *.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implication: Consensus likely needs to reflect continued patient adds and durable payer access; management’s reiteration suggests confidence despite Q2 inventory timing headwinds .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Strong execution: continued revenue growth (+20% YoY) and consistent non-GAAP profitability support the bull case; EPS beat demonstrates operating leverage .
- Guidance intact with visibility: FY 2025 $820–$860M maintained; watch Q2 for inventory drawdown noise, but underlying prescriptions and payer dynamics remain solid .
- Near-term catalysts: ZYN002 Phase 3 topline (Q3 2025) and pitolisant GR bioequivalence (Q3 2025) can create upside optionality; orexin-2 IND mid-2025 extends sleep/wake leadership .
- Strategic moat: U.S.-based IP/manufacturing mitigates tariff/supply chain risks; HD patents to 2044 provide franchise extension beyond WAKIX LOE in 2030 .
- Commercial durability: >80% coverage, no oxybate step-through, and growing prescriber penetration support continued patient adds; polypharmacy co-use (~10–15%) is acceptable to payers .
- Watch R&D spend cadence: ~$29M in 2025 milestones tied to ZYN002 success and orexin program initiation; expect OpEx elevation as Phase 3 programs ramp .
- Trading setup: Potential pre-read run into Q3 ZYN002 topline and SLEEP orexin data in June; consider positioning for binary readouts with risk-balanced exposure.
Sources
- Q1 2025 Press Release: revenues, EPS, OpEx, cash, guidance, pipeline updates .
- Q1 2025 Earnings Call: prepared remarks and Q&A on payer coverage, inventory, ZYN002 powering, HD/GR timelines, orexin data plans .
- Prior quarters: Q4 2024 press release/call ; Q3 2024 press release/call .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*