HSIC Q2 2025: EPS Guidance $4.80–$4.94; 1.1% Margin Pressure
- Targeted Sales Initiative Success: The company’s high‐octane targeted sales program has effectively reactivated lost customers and boosted merchandise sales in July, signifying improved market traction and momentum going forward.
- Margin Stabilization & Improvement: Stabilizing glove pricing and ongoing cost-saving efforts—including over $100,000,000 in restructuring savings and value creation initiatives with KKR’s Capstone group—point to potential margin enhancements in future periods.
- Diverse & Growing Revenue Base: Strong and stable performance across key segments such as DSOs, technology (with double-digit growth in cloud-based platforms), and specialty products bolster the bull case by demonstrating a well-diversified business that is positioned for sustainable earnings growth.
- Margin Pressure from Glove Pricing and Promotions: The Q&A revealed that pricing pressures in the glove segment—responsible for about one-third of the margin decline—combined with aggressive, targeted sales initiatives have adversely impacted the gross margins.
- Tariff-Related Uncertainty Affecting Equipment Orders: Management noted that customer hesitation due to potential tariff increases led to a pullback on equipment shipments and pricing adjustments, suggesting ongoing headwinds from tariff uncertainty.
- Uncertainty Around Cost Savings from New Initiatives: Questions around the new initiatives with KKR and consulting partners highlight concerns that the anticipated cost efficiencies and margin improvements might not materialize as quickly or as substantially as hoped, potentially delaying profitability gains.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Non-GAAP diluted EPS | FY 2025 | $4.80 to $4.94 | $4.80 to $4.94 | no change |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | Expected to grow in the mid-single digits compared to 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion | Expected to grow in the mid-single digits compared to 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $1,100,000,000 | no change |
Total Sales Growth | FY 2025 | Expected to be in the range of 2% to 4% over 2024 | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Non-GAAP Effective Tax Rate | FY 2025 | Assumed to be approximately 25% for FY 2025 | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Foreign Currency Exchange Rates | FY 2025 | Assumed to remain generally consistent with current levels, with foreign exchange expected to be largely neutral for the year | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Acquisition Growth Contribution | FY 2025 | Expected to provide less than 1 percentage point of growth for FY 2025, with most sales growth expected to be internally generated | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Margin Management and Profitability | In Q1 2025 margins improved with better expense control and restructuring initiatives. In Q4 2024, operating margins improved thanks to restructuring savings despite pricing pressures and other headwinds. In Q3 2024, margins were pressured by a cyber incident and fixed cost challenges. | In Q2 2025, lower U.S. margins were noted due to lower glove pricing and targeted sales initiatives, but there is optimism about future profitability through new value creation projects and strategic initiatives. | The focus on margins is consistent, though the current period shows a shift from primarily restructuring-driven improvements to addressing competitive pricing pressures while laying the groundwork for long-term margin enhancement. |
Cost Savings and Restructuring Initiatives | Q1 2025 highlighted a $60 million run rate in cost savings along with restructuring expenses. Q4 2024 noted $37 million of restructuring costs with projected annual savings of $75–$100 million. In Q3 2024, restructuring expenses and initiatives aimed at achieving significant annual run-rate savings were discussed. | Q2 2025 emphasized an expectation of over $100 million in annual run-rate savings and introduced new value creation projects involving initiatives such as AI integration and global function streamlining. | Consistently emphasized across periods, with Q2 2025 showing an added focus on advanced technologies and process consolidations to drive further efficiency, reinforcing a positive long-term outlook despite some uncertainty about timing. |
Tariff, FX, and Equipment Order Uncertainties | Q1 2025 discussed tariff risks, FX headwinds, and healthy equipment demand. Q4 2024 noted minimal tariff impacts, minor FX effects, and equipment sales influenced by deferrals. Q3 2024 had no specific mention. | Q2 2025 addressed temporary pullbacks in equipment orders due to tariff-related market uncertainty and highlighted modest FX contributions while expecting a rebound in equipment sales later in the quarter. | This topic persists as a challenge. While uncertainties remain, the current period shows signs of recovery in equipment orders despite ongoing tariff and FX issues, suggesting a stabilizing but cautious sentiment. |
Sales Initiatives and Customer Reactivation | In Q1 2025, initiatives were part of the refreshed BOLD+1 strategy with gradual customer reactivation. Q3 2024 emphasized the global e-commerce platform and product launches to recover market share after the cyber incident. Q4 2024 contained little discussion on this topic. | Q2 2025 detailed a targeted, time-limited sales initiative aimed at reactivating customers affected by past issues (including the cyber incident), leading to a positive sales bounce in July. | While consistently important, the approach has evolved. Q2 2025 shows a more focused and successful execution of customer reactivation efforts, reflecting an improved sentiment and tangible sales momentum compared to earlier periods. |
Cybersecurity Incident Impact and Recovery | Q1 2025 noted receipt of cyber insurance proceeds. Q4 2024 discussed recovery in market share and equipment sales deferrals due to the incident. Q3 2024 detailed recovery efforts including insurance claims and sales force adjustments to regain lost customers. | Q2 2025 reported that customers who left during the incident have returned through targeted promotions, along with a positive sales performance in the recent month. | Recovery from the cybersecurity incident is a recurring theme. Over time, the sentiment has shifted from significant negative impact and recovery challenges to a more positive outlook characterized by a gradual customer return and stabilization of performance. |
Glove Pricing and Promotional Strategies | Q1 2025 focused on sourcing adjustments (shifting production from China to Malaysia/Europe) with no significant discussion of promotions. Q4 2024 concentrated on tariff mitigation and sourcing without mention of promotions. Q3 2024 mentioned glove pricing as one factor affecting the market but did not detail promotional strategies. | Q2 2025 discussed both lower glove pricing—which contributed to margin pressure—and the implementation of targeted promotional initiatives that successfully reactivated customers, complementing pricing challenges. | The topic persists with a broader scope in Q2 2025. There is now a dual focus on addressing competitive glove pricing while simultaneously using strategic promotions to re-engage customers, contrasting with earlier periods where the emphasis was solely on sourcing and pricing adjustments. |
Dental Implant Market Performance Variability | Q1 2025 highlighted U.S. implant market weakness balanced by promising product launches and bone regeneration strength. Q3 2024 reported mid-single-digit growth globally with differentiated performance between value and premium segments. Q4 2024 described geographic disparities, with stronger performance in Europe and variations between value and premium implants. | Q2 2025 noted accelerating implant growth with product-specific performance differences—such as double-digit growth for value implants and modest growth for premium brands—with regional nuances across U.S. and Europe. | Consistent focus on the implant segment, with Q2 2025 showing increasingly positive outcomes driven by targeted product launches and sales force expansion; overall sentiment is improving as market segmentation becomes a lever for better performance. |
Growth in Cloud-Based Technology Platforms | Q1 2025 exhibited strong growth in practice management platforms with a 20% increase and 9,500 cloud customer base. Q3 2024 reported mid-single-digit sales growth with Dentrix Ascend installations growing over 20% YoY. Q4 2024 emphasized the strategic transition to a SaaS model with over 9,000 subscribers. | Q2 2025 reported robust growth with a 20% YoY increase, surpassing 10,000 cloud-based customers, and highlighted integration benefits from the OneShine approach that enhances recurring revenue streams. | The growth in cloud-based platforms is consistently strong and remains a strategic pillar, with continued improvements in customer numbers and integration initiatives reinforcing a very positive outlook. |
Own-Brand Product Growth Potential | Q1 2025 underscored corporate brand products contributing over 10% of operating income with strategic sourcing adjustments. Q3 2024 emphasized a shift toward own brands that yield higher margins and improve profitability. Q4 2024 discussed transforming the corporate brand from a generic “white box” to a recognized brand with enhanced potential. | Q2 2025 focused on accelerating sales of owned products, noting that customers are increasingly favoring Henry Schein’s own brands as a response to tariff-driven pricing pressures, setting the stage for long-term margin improvement. | Consistently viewed as a key growth lever, with the current period displaying a stronger push to expand own-brand offerings and capture pricing advantages, suggesting a highly positive long-term impact on profitability. |
Market Demand and Forecasting Challenges | Q1 2025 described healthy equipment demand with challenges from FX fluctuations and tariff uncertainties. Q3 2024 noted a generally flat dental market impacted by a slower-than-expected cyber recovery and seasonal factors. Q4 2024 anticipated modest growth with challenges from seasonal timing, flu, and internal investment headwinds. | Q2 2025 indicated good sales growth in distribution, with a rebound in new office design activity despite economic uncertainties and pressure on equipment orders, reflecting improved market activity amid ongoing forecasting challenges. | Market demand remains challenging due to external economic factors and forecasting hurdles, yet Q2 2025 shows signs of recovery and resilience, suggesting moderate improvement but continued sensitivity to external uncertainties. |
KKR Partnership and Uncertainty in New Cost Efficiency Initiatives | Q1 2025 mentioned the evolving KKR partnership with upcoming board additions and highlighted ongoing cost efficiency measures with $60 million run-rate savings in place. Q4 2024 discussed KKR’s pending clearance, a long-term strategic role, and ongoing uncertainties around estimating full restructuring costs. Q3 2024 did not include details on this topic. | Q2 2025 detailed a robust partnership with KKR’s Capstone group and global consultants focused on enhancing distribution margins and operational efficiencies, while acknowledging uncertainty regarding the precise timing and magnitude of new cost savings. | The partnership with KKR has emerged as a continuous strategic focus. While cost efficiency gain estimates remain uncertain in the short term, the collaboration is expected to drive long-term operational improvements and shareholder value, reflecting an increasingly optimistic strategic outlook despite inherent uncertainties. |
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EPS Guidance
Q: What EPS cadence is expected in H2?
A: Ron explained that EPS in the back half is expected to be higher than in the first half, driven by targeted sales, cost savings, and occasional remeasurement gains, with non‐GAAP diluted EPS guidance of $4.8 to $4.94 for 2025. -
Gross Margins
Q: Will distribution gross margins bounce back soon?
A: Ron noted that pressures from lower glove pricing and promotions will likely stabilize sequentially, though margins remain slightly below last year’s levels. -
Cost Savings
Q: Do new initiatives offer upfront cost savings?
A: Stanley highlighted that with the support of Capstone and restructuring, efficiency initiatives are expected to deliver substantial savings—over $100M over time, primarily showing benefits in 2026/2027. -
Margin Breakdown
Q: How much margin pressure comes from gloves?
A: Ron mentioned that roughly one-third of the 110 basis point margin pressure is due to gloves, with the balance stemming from other competitive pricing and promotional activities. -
Consulting Impact
Q: What are the consultants focused on improving?
A: Stanley explained that external consulting, in tandem with Capstone, is centered on enhancing gross profit through pricing adjustments and operational efficiency improvements. -
Targeted Sales/RFP
Q: How effective were targeted sales and RFP responses?
A: Stanley described how the targeted sales initiative successfully re-engaged lost customers, while noting that large customer RFP processes are routine and managed through competitive, collaborative pricing strategies. -
Dental Trends
Q: How do patient traffic and tariffs affect dental sales?
A: Stanley observed that positive July trends and renewed promotions helped recover customer interest, with moderate tariff impacts leading to minor price adjustments without eroding market share. -
Ortho Update
Q: What is the current state of the orthodontic business?
A: Stanley noted that the orthodontic segment is very small, undergoing cost and sales realignment with product upgrades, driving modest profitability despite its limited scale.
Research analysts covering HENRY SCHEIN.