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    Hershey Co (HSY)

    Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on May 1, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$167.19Last close (Apr 30, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$166.31Open (May 1, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.88(-0.53%)
    • Robust Innovation Pipeline: The company is rolling out significant brand innovations, including what they describe as the "biggest innovation ever on the Reese’s brand," expected to drive consumer engagement and market share in the fall.
    • Proactive Pricing Strategy and Value Extraction: Hershey is successfully leveraging price pack architecture and pricing increases—evidenced by everyday chocolate pricing up 8% even as volumes slightly decline—which positions the firm to maintain margins amid commodity pressures.
    • Effective Mitigation of Tariff Impacts: Despite potential tariff headwinds (with unmitigated impacts up to $100 million per quarter in Q3/Q4), the company is deploying multiple levers (including productivity, sourcing, and pricing actions) to offset these costs and preserve earnings growth next year.
    • Significant Tariff Exposure: The management outlined an unmitigated tariff impact of up to $100 million per quarter in Q3 and Q4, with about 2/3 of that exposure tied to cocoa tariffs. This presents downside risk if mitigation actions or exemptions fail to materialize.
    • Margin Pressure from Cost Increases: Guidance indicated that gross margins are expected to decline by approximately 700 basis points in Q2, alongside materially higher SG&A expenses. Combined with elevated cocoa costs, these factors could squeeze earnings further.
    • Competitive and Operational Challenges: The discussion highlighted intensified competition—especially from smaller players in U.S. chocolate—and uncertainty around channel trends amid a softening consumer sentiment. This competitive pressure, along with potential regulatory impacts (e.g., SNAP restrictions), adds to the risk profile of the business.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    Declined by ~14% (from $3.253B to $2.805B)

    Q1 2025 total revenue dropped by about $447M due to a combination of lower net sales driven by a 13.8% decline in volume, timing challenges including fewer shipping days, and the lap of planned inventory increases preceding the ERP implementation. These factors undercut the benefits seen in previous periods where favorable pricing partially offset volume softening.

    North America Confectionery

    Declined by ~15% (from $2.707B to $2.300B)

    NA Confectionery revenue fell sharply by roughly 15% in Q1 2025, primarily driven by significant volume declines (approximately 18-point decrease) due to the lap of planned inventory increases, timing differences with the Easter season, and fewer shipping days. Although a 3-point uplift from price realization partially mitigated the impact, the net effect remains a steep decline compared to the stable performance in previous periods.

    North America Salty Snacks

    Essentially flat (+~1% change: $275.1M to $277.8M)

    NA Salty Snacks revenue remained largely unchanged as a 4-point volume increase was nearly offset by a 3-point net price decline (including costs associated with new SkinnyPop packaging). This outcome contrasts with more volatile segments in previous periods, reflecting operational stability amid price and volume pressures.

    International

    Declined by ~16% (from $270.3M to $227.5M)

    International revenue dropped by about 16% as unfavorable foreign currency impacts (approximately an 8% headwind) and an 8% volume decline, related to lapping planned inventory increases and timing issues, overshadowed modest price improvements (about 1 point positive) seen in earlier periods. This represents a reversal from the previous period’s mixed regional performance where declines in Latin America were partially offset by gains elsewhere.

    Operating Profit

    Declined by ~65% (from $1,058.1M to $369.2M)

    Operating profit plummeted by 65% YoY in Q1 2025, driven by substantial derivative mark-to-market losses on commodity derivatives (a dramatic shift from previous period gains), increased commodity and manufacturing costs, and an overall challenging operating environment. The volatility in derivative impacts and cost pressures completely offset prior period improvements from supply chain initiatives and lower SM&A expenses.

    Net Income

    Declined by ~72% (from $797.5M to $224.2M)

    Net income fell sharply by 72% YoY, reflecting the compounded negative effects of a 13.8% drop in net sales, rising cost of sales leading to lower gross profit, and significant mark-to-market losses on commodity derivatives (contrasting with the previous quarter’s gains). The increased business realignment expenses and operational adjustments further exacerbated the decline seen compared to Q1 2024.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    At least 2% growth

    no prior guidance

    Gross Margin (bps)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Decline by 650 to 700 basis points

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EPS (%)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Decline by mid-30%

    no prior guidance

    Tariff Expenses ($)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    N/A

    no prior guidance

    Tax Rate (%)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Approximately 16%

    no prior guidance

    Interest Expense ($)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $185 million to $190 million

    no prior guidance

    Capital Expenditures ($)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $425 million to $450 million

    no prior guidance

    Advertising Spend (%)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Increase by mid-single digits

    no prior guidance

    Cost Savings ($)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Incremental $125 million from the AAA initiative

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Gross Margin
    Q1 2025
    41%
    33.7% (calculated from net salesOf 2,805,419 and cost of salesOf 1,861,152)
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Innovation and New Product Launches

    Q4 2024: Focused on portfolio innovation across sweets and chocolate, with launches like JR Freeze Dried and teasers for big Reese’s innovations. Q3 2024: Emphasized growth in sweets and instant consumable categories through new product introductions and a robust pipeline for 2025. Q2 2024: Highlighted incremental innovation in sweets, salty snacks, chocolate and non-chocolate with campaigns like the Shaq launch.

    Q1 2025: Showcased a wide range of new launches including Reese’s Peanut Butter and Jelly in two flavors, Hershey’s with Caramel, media campaigns (Kit Kat’s Break Brothers) and strategic partnerships such as the Pokemon collaboration, suggesting an aggressive push into seasonal and category-specific initiatives.

    Continued and enhanced focus on innovation across categories. The company is sustaining its pipeline with high-profile launches and partnerships, signaling an increased commitment to driving growth through new product introductions.

    Pricing Strategy and Margin Management

    Q4 2024: Discussed strategic pricing adjustments and hedging against cocoa inflation along with controlled pricing approaches including competitor pricing actions. Q3 2024: Emphasized consistent 2025 pricing outlook with moderate increases and challenges from sales mix and volume deleverage. Q2 2024: Detailed a surgical price increase approach combined with phased implementation to offset inflation and cost pressures.

    Q1 2025: Reported a net price realization benefit of around 2% with differentiated performance across segments, reiterated preparedness for persistently high cocoa prices and rising tariffs, and highlighted cost savings from initiatives such as AAA, while acknowledging a decline in adjusted gross margins due to inflation and mix challenges.

    Active management amid margin pressures. While the strategic pricing framework remains similar, Q1 2025 shows sharper focus on margin protection via cost-saving initiatives and flexible pricing actions amid mounting commodity and tariff challenges.

    Commodity Cost Pressures (Cocoa & Sugar)

    Q4 2024: Focused primarily on managing cocoa costs through hedging, supply diversification, and reformulation efforts, with sugar not being a primary discussion point. Q3 2024: Highlighted cocoa as a major inflation driver with sugar also expected to contribute significantly to cost pressure. Q2 2024: Discussed historic cocoa prices and a measured pass-through strategy; sugar was not mentioned.

    Q1 2025: Emphasized robust cocoa management with clear visibility into 2025 costs, flexible hedging strategies, and an outlook that anticipates inflation; noted that there was no specific mention of sugar cost pressures.

    Focus remains on cocoa with evolving mitigation strategies. The discussion in Q1 2025 is consistent with prior periods for cocoa although sugar is no longer discussed, suggesting a narrowing of attention toward cocoa cost management with a clearer outlook and hedging strategy as supply trends shift.

    Tariff Impact and Mitigation Strategies

    Q4, Q3, Q2 2024: There was no mention of tariff-related issues or specific mitigation strategies in the available excerpts [—].

    Q1 2025: Introduced a detailed discussion on tariffs, particularly the impact of the U.S. cocoa import levy with incremental expenses of approximately $15–20 million in Q2 2025, alongside active engagement with the government and mitigation actions such as inventory management and pricing adjustments.

    New emphasis. Tariff impacts have emerged as a significant additional cost factor in Q1 2025, marking a departure from previous periods where tariffs were not discussed. This indicates an evolving external pressure that is now being actively managed.

    Competitive Dynamics (Domestic & International)

    Q4 2024: Addressed domestic pricing pressures from competitors (including private labels) and highlighted intense competitive activity particularly in Brazil and Mexico, with market leadership challenges internationally. Q3 2024: Discussed competitive pressures from private labels and smaller players domestically and deep discounting in international markets (especially in Mexico and Brazil). Q2 2024: No explicit discussion [—].

    Q1 2025: Highlighted mixed results with domestic challenges (declines in candy, mint, and gum leading to share losses) counterbalanced by strong seasonal performance and gains in salty snacks; internationally, steady growth in key markets (Brazil and Mexico) was noted, although foreign currency headwinds persist.

    Mixed domestic headwinds with positive international performance. While competitive pressures continue to be significant, especially domestically, there is clear progress in seasonal and salty snack segments as well as consistent gains internationally, reflecting an adaptive strategy to evolving competitive dynamics.

    Consumer Trends and Shifting Preferences

    Q4 2024: Detailed discussion on health and wellness trends, growth in low-sugar/protein products and specific analysis on GLP-1 drugs showing no material impact overall, supported by multiple data sources. Q3 2024: Noted a mild impact from GLP-1 drugs with broader consumer financial pressures driving snacking preferences and a shift toward value offerings, alongside evolving tastes within chocolate and non-chocolate categories. Q2 2024: Focused on shifts in discretionary spending and channel migration without mentioning GLP-1.

    Q1 2025: Did not mention GLP-1 drugs; instead, the discussion centered on softening consumer sentiment, value-seeking behavior, steady everyday chocolate growth, and robust performance in salty snacks along with strong seasonal performance.

    Reduced emphasis on GLP-1 effects. While previous periods contained focused commentary on GLP-1 and health trends, Q1 2025 omits this, suggesting that GLP-1 impact is either considered minimal or overshadowed by broader consumer trends in value and category performance. Overall, consumer behavior remains a priority with an emphasis on seasonality and value.

    Operational Efficiency and Cost Management

    Q3 2024: Discussed productivity programs with specific cost savings expectations (~$180 million for 2025) and marketing efficiencies, alongside ongoing enhancements to automation and supply chain improvements. Q2 2024: Emphasized a broad transformation program with targeted gross savings of $700 million through 2026 and operational efficiency via ERP implementations and technology investments. Q4 2024: No specific discussion available [—].

    Q1 2025: Continued focus on efficiency with the Advancing Agility & Automation (AAA) initiative delivering $125 million in incremental cost savings, improvements in advertising and operating expenses, and clear mention of reversing previous ERP-related impacts; overall, a robust message on managing margin pressures through operational efficiency.

    Sustained and detailed focus on cost management. The narrative in Q1 2025 is consistent with earlier initiatives but is more granular with specific savings targets and clear strategic plans, underscoring a long-term emphasis on operational efficiency despite ongoing external cost pressures.

    Market Diversification and Category Expansion

    Q4 2024: Focused on diversifying cocoa supply sources (with more production outside West Africa) and expanding into underdeveloped categories like sweets and health & wellness lines. Q3 2024: Addressed category resiliency with solid growth in chocolate, alongside efforts in non-chocolate and salty snack segments; stressed channel opportunities and innovation to capture market share. Q2 2024: Highlighted portfolio optimization and strategic expansion into snacking, especially salty snacks, to leverage core capabilities.

    Q1 2025: Emphasized strategic acquisitions (e.g., LesserEvil, Fulfil), new product launches and partnerships, and expansion of the salty snacks portfolio (e.g., SkinnyPop, Dot's Pretzels), coupled with international growth initiatives in key markets.

    Accelerated diversification and expansion. The company is increasingly leveraging acquisitions and innovative partnerships to broaden its portfolio, indicating a robust strategy to diversify market presence and drive growth into new categories and regions.

    1. Tariff Impact
      Q: What’s the tariff risk into Q3/Q4?
      A: Management expects unmitigated tariff impact to reach $100 million per quarter, mainly from cocoa tariffs in Canada, though extensive mitigation efforts are underway.

    2. EPS Outlook
      Q: How will Q2 EPS compare to Q1?
      A: EPS in Q2 is projected to decline less than Q1’s 30% drop, bolstered by strong Easter sales and ERP adjustments, even as gross margins compress by 700 bps.

    3. Earnings Growth
      Q: Can 2026 earnings grow despite tariffs?
      A: Despite high cocoa prices and tariff headwinds, management sees a path to earnings growth in 2026—albeit a narrower one that hinges on robust mitigation measures.

    4. Pricing & Market Share
      Q: Are pricing actions boosting market share?
      A: Early pricing initiatives, including price pack architecture, are already improving shelf placements and customer trips, contributing to positive market share trends.

    5. Nonseasonal Chocolate
      Q: Will everyday chocolate grow?
      A: Management expects low single-digit growth in everyday chocolate, driven by significant, upcoming innovations in the product line.

    6. Capacity Expansion
      Q: How does capacity expansion work amid volume cuts?
      A: The new chocolate processing facility enhances supply chain agility and overcomes past capacity constraints, supporting stronger seasonal performance despite lower volume forecasts.

    7. Pricing Strategy
      Q: What advancements have been made in pricing?
      A: Ongoing reforms, including reformulation and price pack adjustments, aim to deliver better consumer value without direct price hikes, balancing short- and long-term needs.

    8. SNAP Impact
      Q: How significant are SNAP purchases?
      A: Only about 2% of candy sales occur through SNAP channels, suggesting minimal business impact from potential regulatory changes.

    9. International Growth
      Q: How is international competition faring?
      A: Strong performances in markets such as Brazil and India—with normalized competition—are underpinning healthy organic growth internationally.