Executive Summary

Q4 revenue was $974M, down 1% YoY, with GAAP EPS of $0.40 and adjusted EPS of $0.48; adjusted operating margin was 3.9% (vs. 3.5% adjusted in Q4’23), reflecting cost control and peak season surcharges .
Intermodal volume rose 14% YoY in Q4, driven by seasonal builds, West Coast diversions, and record service; revenue per load fell 9% YoY but improved 4% sequentially on surcharges and longer haul mix .
2025 outlook introduced: EPS $1.90–$2.40, revenue $4.0–$4.3B; tax ~25%, capex $50–$70M, no container purchases planned; ITS expects high-single-digit intermodal volume growth and low-single-digit price gains, with margin lift in Logistics from network alignment .
Capital allocation: ~$100M returned to shareholders in 2024 (buybacks + dividends); a $0.125/share quarterly dividend was declared for March 28, 2025, supporting a $0.50/year program .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Intermodal growth and service: “Intermodal volumes increased 14% year-over-year… We and our rail partners delivered record service levels,” enabling surcharges and conversion opportunities .
Margin progress: Q4 adjusted operating margin reached 3.9% (up ~40 bps YoY), with ITS adjusted margin at 3.1% (+50 bps YoY) and Logistics at 4.6% (+20 bps YoY) .
Strategic positioning: Completed EASO JV (Mexico intermodal), finished warehouse network alignment, and maintained a strong balance sheet (cash $127M; net debt/adj. EBITDA 0.5x) .

What Went Wrong

Top-line pressure: Q4 revenue declined 1% YoY to $974M; ITS revenue -1% and Logistics revenue -2% YoY as lower fuel and brokerage weighed on growth .
Yield headwinds: Intermodal revenue per load -9% YoY (mix, fuel, pricing), partially offset by 4% sequential improvement from surcharges and longer length of haul .
Brokerage softness: Load count -6% and revenue/load -12% in Q4; Logistics margin was “a bit lighter than expected” due to brokerage performance .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$985.0	$986.5	$986.9	$973.5
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.46	$0.47	$0.39	$0.40
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.54	N/A	$0.52	$0.48
GAAP Operating Margin (%)	3.0%	4.0%	3.3%	3.2%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	N/A	N/A	4.3%	3.9%
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$77.6	$89.0	$78.5	$78.7
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$82.6	N/A	$88.8	$84.8

Notes: Q4’24 adjusted EBITDA is $84.8M per reconciliation; press release references “$85M” rounding .

Segment breakdown (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023):

Segment	Revenue ($M) Q4’23	Revenue ($M) Q4’24	GAAP OI ($M) Q4’23	GAAP OI ($M) Q4’24	Adjusted OI ($M) Q4’23	Adjusted OI ($M) Q4’24	Adjusted OI Margin (%) Q4’24
ITS	$576.5	$570.4	$12.1	$16.8	$15.1	$17.7	3.1%
Logistics	$437.9	$429.3	$17.3	$14.8	$19.4	$19.9	4.6%

Key KPIs (Q4 2024 unless noted):

Intermodal volume +14% YoY; revenue per load -9% YoY; +4% QoQ .
Cost per dray -3% YoY; container utilization +6%; repositioning costs +3% for peak .
Dedicated: revenue per truck per day +13% YoY .
Brokerage: load count -6% YoY; revenue per load -12% YoY .

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q4 2024): network alignment pre-tax $4.8M; transaction-related $1.2M (EASO); other $0.1M; adjusted EPS $0.48 vs GAAP $0.40 .

Estimates vs Actuals: S&P Global consensus for Q4’24 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits; beat/miss cannot be determined (see “Estimates Context”).

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
EPS (diluted)	FY 2025	N/A	$1.90 – $2.40	Initiated
Revenue	FY 2025	N/A	$4.0 – $4.3B	Initiated
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	N/A	~25%	Initiated
Capex	FY 2025	N/A	$50 – $70M	Initiated
Container Purchases	FY 2025	N/A	No container purchases planned	Initiated
Intermodal Volume	FY 2025 (ITS)	N/A	High single-digit growth	Initiated
Intermodal Price	FY 2025 (ITS)	N/A	Low single-digit increase (2H weighted)	Initiated
Dedicated Revenue	FY 2025 (ITS)	N/A	Comparable to 2024	Initiated
Logistics Revenue ex-Brokerage	FY 2025	N/A	Low- to mid-single-digit growth	Initiated
Brokerage Volume	FY 2025	N/A	Mid-single-digit growth; upside if truckload tightens	Initiated
Logistics Margin	FY 2025	N/A	~100 bps improvement from network alignment (Q3 run-rate basis)	Initiated
Dividend	2025	$0.50/yr indicated	$0.125 quarterly declared for Mar 28, 2025	Maintained program

Q1 to Q4 cadence: management expects a slight step-down from Q4 to Q1 (lower peak surcharges, seasonality), then ramp through the year with Q3 as peak earnings quarter .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Intermodal demand & pricing	Q2: Intermodal volume +8%; market challenging; focus on yield mgmt, Final Mile strength . Q3: 12% intermodal volume growth; early bid season; expect upward price bias; 70% book repriced in H1’25 .	Q4: +14% intermodal volume; customers pulling bids forward; anticipating low-single-digit price increases building through year .	Improving demand with cautious pricing optimism.
West Coast/transloading	Q3: Pulled-forward peak season; port/strike risk watched .	West Coast volumes strong; transloading activity continues; potential further ramp post-Lunar New Year .	Sustained strength and optionality.
Mexico cross-border (EASO JV)	Q3: JV closed; immediate but small accretion; cross-sell pipeline .	Mexico/CAN is ~6% of intermodal volume (~3% of total revenue); underpenetrated conversion opportunity; 51% EPS consolidation noted .	Strategic growth vector, measured financial impact near term.
Network alignment (Logistics)	Q3: $8.4M Q3 costs; $3.5–$4.5M in Q4; targeting ~100 bps margin lift in 2025 .	Completed; expect 100 bps margin expansion; ~$13M cost for ~$18M annual benefit; Q1 sequential margin improvement expected .	Execution completed; benefits beginning.
Brokerage backdrop	Q2: Margin pressure in overcapacity environment . Q3: LTL +21%; spot soft; positive OI despite headwinds .	Q4: Loads -6%; rev/load -12%; guidance mid-single-digit volume growth with upside if TL tightens .	Cyclical; positioned for upside.
Cost structure & rail costs	Q3: PT&WH costs down; D&A lower on useful life change .	Rail purchase costs expected down low single digits; insourcing dray, M&R; driver productivity focus .	Continued tailwinds expected.
Capital allocation	Q2/Q3: YTD $48M/$91M returned; strong balance sheet .	~$100M returned in 2024; quarterly dividend ongoing .	Consistent returns with dry powder.

Management Commentary

“Intermodal volumes increased 14% year-over-year… We and our rail partners delivered record service levels despite the large influx of demand.” – Phil Yeager, CEO .
“Adjusted operating income margin was 3.9% for the quarter… ITS quarterly adjusted operating margin was 3.1%… Logistics…4.6%.” – Kevin Beth, CFO .
“We expect 2025 diluted earnings per share will range from $1.90 to $2.40… revenue… $4.0 to $4.3 billion… tax rate ~25%… capex $50–$70 million.” – Company press release .
“We do not plan to purchase containers in 2025.” – Kevin Beth, CFO .
“We expect earnings to step down slightly from Q4 to Q1… followed by an increase in profitability as the year progresses… Q3 being our highest earnings quarter.” – Management .

Q&A Highlights

Q1 seasonality and step-down: Expect slightly lower EPS/Q1 vs Q4 on lower peak surcharges, seasonal Final Mile, higher comp/taxes/interest/insurance; EPS still better than “normal” seasonality .
Intermodal pricing and margins: Low-single-digit price increases expected, skewed to 2H as bids reprice; OI ramps similar to 2024; rail purchase costs seen down low single digits .
Demand/transloading: West Coast strength continued into January (+18% YoY); transloading activity robust; potential pull-forward around tariffs .
Capacity/utilization: ~30% incremental box growth capacity without new purchases; ~20% of fleet stacked; dray insourcing target ~80% (Q4 ~73%) .
Logistics margin path: Expect ~100 bps improvement from network alignment; ~$13M spend for ~$18M annual benefit; sequential improvement from Q4 to Q1 .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at the time of analysis due to access limits, so we cannot calculate beat/miss versus Street (we will update when available). Values were not retrieved; therefore no S&P Global estimate figures are shown.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q4 showed operating discipline: adjusted OI% 3.9% (+40 bps YoY) on a slightly lower revenue base, supported by 14% intermodal volume growth and peak surcharges .
2025 set up for gradual acceleration: Q1 seasonal dip, then ramp into a Q3 peak; low-single-digit intermodal price increases weighted to H2 and high-single-digit volume growth guide underpin EPS range .
Logistics margin catalysts are visible: network alignment completed with a targeted ~100 bps uplift and ~$18M annual benefit vs ~$13M spend; early Q1 sequential improvement expected .
Structural cost levers: rail purchase costs seen down low single digits; continued dray insourcing and container utilization gains support margin expansion .
Mexico JV (EASO) is strategically important: modest near-term EPS, but provides cross-border scale and cross-sell opportunities in an underpenetrated intermodal corridor .
Balance sheet strength and capital returns continue: ~$100M returned in 2024; dividend maintained with $0.125/share declared for March 2025 .
Trading implications: With Street estimates unavailable, near-term stock moves likely hinge on the 2025 ramp narrative (H2 pricing, Logistics margin capture) and ongoing West Coast/Mexico demand indicators .

Appendix: Additional Data and Reconciliations

Q4’24 non-GAAP adjustments (pre-tax): Network alignment $4.8M; transaction-related $1.2M; other $0.1M; adjusted EPS $0.48 vs GAAP $0.40 .
FY’24: Revenue $3.95B; GAAP OI 3.6%; adjusted OI 4.0%; adjusted EBITDA $349.2M; net debt/adjusted EBITDA 0.5x .
Q3’24 and Q2’24 reference data used for sequential comparisons and trends .

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