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    Ibotta (IBTA)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 7, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$63.09Last close (Feb 26, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$38.01Open (Feb 27, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-25.08(-39.75%)
    • The company has deployed a new measurement framework, Cost Per Incremental Dollar (CPID), which is live in the market and receiving positive feedback from initial clients. Two major CPG companies have moved beyond pilots to significant campaigns, investing several times higher on an average daily basis than last year. This indicates strong potential for increased client investment and revenue growth as more clients adopt this approach.
    • The hiring of a new Chief Revenue Officer, Chris Riedy, who has extensive experience in scaling sales organizations, is expected to improve sales execution and drive better offer supply. The company is upgrading its sales operations, enablement, and account prioritization, positioning itself for long-term success.
    • Partnerships with major publishers like Instacart and DoorDash are showing strong fundamentals and growth potential. The company is pleased with the implementation and redemption rates on Instacart and expects continued ramp-up as offer supply issues are resolved. The addition of alcoholic beverage offers on Instacart and the upcoming launch with DoorDash are expected to attract greater investments from clients over time.
    • The company acknowledges that ongoing issues with offer supply, sales execution, and measurement framework will continue to be a headwind into the second quarter, potentially delaying expected growth. ,
    • The rollout of the new CPID measurement framework is in very early stages, and the company cannot provide clear guidance on the pace of client adoption, indicating uncertainty and potential delays in realizing benefits.
    • Declining redemption volumes in Q1 due to seasonal factors and insufficient offer supply may impact revenue growth.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    Virtually unchanged ($98.5M vs $98.6M)

    Revenue remained flat as the balance between Direct-to-Consumer ($46.09M) and Third-Party Publisher ($52.27M) segments was maintained, showing stability from the previous period.

    Operating Income

    Declined by approximately 37%

    Despite stable revenue, operating income dropped from $20.7M in Q3 to $12.97M in Q4 2024, suggesting pressure on margins possibly due to higher or reallocated operating expenses from the previous quarter.

    Net Income

    Increased by over 340%

    Net income surged from $17.24M in Q3 to $76.17M in Q4 2024, driven by the reversal in financing costs—particularly the dramatic change in interest expense—and other operational improvements despite lower operating income, indicating a significant shift in leverage and cost management.

    Basic EPS

    Improved from $1.07 to $3.19

    Basic EPS improved significantly as a result of the substantial increase in net income, even though operating income fell; this reflects the impact of favorable financing changes and enhanced profitability compared to the previous period.

    Interest Expense

    Reversed dramatically (from $39K to –$12.98M)

    The reversal in interest expense, which shifted to a net interest income of approximately $12.98M in Q4 compared to a minor expense in Q3, is attributable to changes in the company’s financing structure (such as the refinancing or extinguishment of debt) that altered the cost profile dramatically.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    $80M to $84M, flat revenue growth

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    $10M to $14M, about a 15% margin at the midpoint

    no prior guidance

    Ad and Other Revenue

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Approximately $10M

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP Cost of Revenue

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Increase by $2M sequentially, reflecting a full quarter of Instacart-related costs

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP Operating Expense

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Decline sequentially by $3M, driven by a decline in sales and marketing offset by growth in R&D and G&A

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA Margin

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to show improvement every quarter as revenue grows

    no prior guidance

    GAAP Income Taxes

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to be de minimis in Q1, with a GAAP income tax rate in the high teens for the full year

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted Tax Rate

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to be in the low teens in Q1 and mid-teens for the full year

    no prior guidance

    Free Cash Flow as a Percent of Adjusted EBITDA

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to be in the range of 60% to 65%

    no prior guidance

    Stock-Based Compensation

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to be between $50M and $60M for the full year 2025

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    Q4 2024
    $100 million to $106 million
    $98.38 million
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Instacart Partnership and Integration

    In Q2, it was announced as a strategic partnership with integration planned for late 2024 with a focus on accessing Instacart’s extensive network. In Q3, discussions centered on initial testing, phased rollout, and high redemption rates, with anticipation for revenue ramp-up.

    In Q4, the partnership showed healthy user engagement and redemption growth—even as operational hiccups, depleted offer supply, and the expansion into new categories (beer, wine, spirits) were highlighted.

    Recurring topic with increasing operational detail; sentiment remains optimistic overall but acknowledges short-term challenges.

    Third-Party Publisher Redeemer Network Growth

    Q1 highlighted significant growth in redeemer numbers and revenue. Q2 saw strong organic growth with redeemers increasing by over 250% year-over-year , and Q3 reported further impressive year-over-year increases.

    Q4 continued the trend with a 27% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven partly by Instacart’s addition, reinforcing the network’s strength.

    Consistently robust growth across periods with positive sentiment on network expansion.

    CPG Client Budget Trends and Promotional Spend Dynamics

    Q1 emphasized increased budgets driven by strong platform performance and client retention. Q2 focused on the shift toward performance-based marketing, with growing promotional spending and real-time measurement developments. In Q3, challenges around annual planning cycles and mixed client budget responses were noted.

    Q4 noted that while some top clients increased their Ibotta budgets for 2025, overall spending was less than anticipated due to cautious economic sentiment and finalized pre-partnership e-commerce budgets. Enhanced ROI measurement and pilot successes were also detailed.

    A recurring theme with evolving measurement emphasis and cautious spend dynamics—clients remain interested but are mindful of economic pressures.

    Supply Constraints and Promotional Budget Depletion

    Q2 mentioned that historically Ibotta hadn’t been constrained, though annual planning cycles sometimes limited flexible spending. In Q3, rapid redeemer demand began outpacing offer supply, leading to temporary depletion concerns.

    Q4 explicitly highlighted a lack of sufficient offer supply and depletion of 2024 budgets, with execution issues and delayed budget allocations impacting short-term redemption revenue.

    An intensifying issue; what began as a minor concern has become a more prominent challenge affecting short-term performance.

    CPID Measurement Framework Adoption and Its Mixed Sentiment

    This topic was not mentioned in Q1, Q2, or Q3 earnings discussions.

    In Q4, early adoption by two large CPG clients was detailed. While the framework showed promise with higher average daily investments, there was mixed sentiment as clients adjusted to the new measurement approach.

    Emerging in Q4; a new topic that shows early potential yet faces cautious and mixed reception.

    New Leadership and Sales Execution Overhaul (New CRO)

    There was no discussion of new leadership or a sales execution overhaul in Q1 through Q3.

    Q4 introduced the appointment of a new Chief Revenue Officer, Chris Riedy, as part of an effort to address prior sales execution shortfalls and improve account coverage and operations.

    A new development aimed at long-term sales improvement; its impact is yet to be determined but is seen as critical for future growth.

    Expansion into Non-Traditional Publisher Partnerships

    Q1 did not mention non-traditional partnerships, and while Q2 hinted at exploring opportunities in broader verticals , Q3 did not raise this subject.

    Q4 expanded on this strategy by detailing partnerships with DoorDash (set to go live in 2025) and enhanced roles for Instacart beyond grocery, including support for new categories.

    An emerging strategic focus that broadens the publisher network and is expected to drive future diversification and revenue opportunities.

    Operating Expenses and Margin Pressure Impacting EBITDA

    Q1 detailed strong margin expansion with improved adjusted EBITDA margins and operating leverage benefits. Q2 maintained healthy margins despite increased expenses, and Q3 noted a step-down in expected margins due to rising costs.

    Q4 showed increased operating expenses—including higher cost of revenue (due in part to Instacart-related costs) and other spending—which led to notable pressure on EBITDA margins (dropping from 33% to 28%).

    A continuous focus where margins have eroded further in Q4 due to rising expenses and execution challenges, prompting caution among stakeholders.

    Decline of General Merchandise Expansion Focus

    Q1 and Q2 highlighted strong progress in expanding general merchandise with new partnerships and increased revenue contributions in non-grocery segments (automotive, home improvement, video games, etc.). Q3 reinforced positive momentum with significant growth in these verticals.

    Q4 did not mention any decline in general merchandise focus; there was no negative sentiment, and the overall strategy continued to emphasize diversification into non-food categories.

    No decline observed; the focus remains on expansion with consistently positive sentiment.

    Reduced Emphasis on AI-Driven Targeting and Data Optimization

    Q1 placed strong emphasis on AI-driven targeting as a critical strategic asset, with detailed discussion on its importance for optimized pricing and consumer engagement.

    Q4 did not reference a reduction in emphasis; discussions on AI-driven targeting were absent, suggesting it is no longer a focal point as other topics have taken precedence.

    A relative reduction in focus compared to Q1, though not necessarily a strategic de-emphasis—it may reflect shifting priorities in the narrative.

    1. Addressing Key Issues
      Q: When will the 3 issues be resolved?
      A: Bryan said the measurement framework is already in market with positive feedback, expecting a slow and steady rollout over the rest of the year. Sales execution improvements may take a quarter or two to iron out. Getting on cycle with clients could take a couple of quarters but is the least important factor.

    2. Cost Savings Impact
      Q: Details on initiated cost savings and P&L impact?
      A: Bryan stated cost savings focus on areas like D2C, which is no longer a strategic priority, and scaling back B2B marketing. They are not cutting strategic areas related to key innovations, instead leaning into client analytics, real-time measurement, and machine learning.

    3. CPG Advertisers' Receptivity
      Q: How receptive are CPG advertisers to changes?
      A: Bryan noted that after pilots in Q4, programming based on their success is already live in Q1. He is encouraged by the timeline and the ability to find in-period budgets, indicating a high level of interest.

    4. Offer Supply and Redeemer Growth
      Q: Is offer supply impacting redeemer growth?
      A: Bryan acknowledged an interrelationship between offer supply and usage intensity. Despite this, redeemers are still growing at a good clip, putting more pressure on offer supply.

    5. Sales Force Changes
      Q: What changes are needed to the sales force?
      A: Bryan mentioned the need for optimizations in operations, focusing on larger budget sales, better tools, and training for a new go-to-market approach. They are hiring people with relevant experience like Chris from Twitter.

    6. Measurement Improvements
      Q: How is measurement improving for CPGs?
      A: Bryan explained that real-time measurement of incremental sales adds value to brands. Personalization and targeting help achieve target CPID, ensuring promotions are always contribution margin-positive.

    7. Growth Visibility
      Q: Supply visibility into Q2 growth?
      A: Sunit stated they feel good about March and the second quarter. Bryan added that improvement will be gradual over the year as they retool, with ad product improvements manifesting later.

    8. Migration to CPID
      Q: Can CPID client migration scale?
      A: Bryan said it's early, but current large clients' continued investment is significant. Focus is on proving results before scaling to more clients.

    9. Instacart Update
      Q: Progression with Instacart scaling?
      A: Bryan is pleased with the program fundamentals, but financial contributions are limited due to offer supply shortages. Confident that recovering offer supply will lead to continued ramp.

    10. Total Redemptions
      Q: Why can't redemptions match prior quarters?
      A: Sunit explained Q1 is seasonally slow, but redeemer base remains strong. Total redemptions are key and usually increase over the year.

    11. Publisher Feedback
      Q: Any publisher feedback on content?
      A: Bryan noted publishers still see them as the largest content source and are rooting for their innovations.

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